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The Technological Singularity and Entrepreneurship

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This talk was given at Stanford Graduate School of Business by Randy Lubin, Robert Denning, and Nick Staubach. It is a basic introduction to the Technological Singularity and its relationship with …

This talk was given at Stanford Graduate School of Business by Randy Lubin, Robert Denning, and Nick Staubach. It is a basic introduction to the Technological Singularity and its relationship with entrepreneurship.

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  • The price-performance, capacity & bandwidth of information technologies progresses exponentially through multiple paradigm shiftsSpecific to information technologyNot to arbitrary exponential trends (like population)Still need to test viability of the next paradigmA scientific theory25 years of researchPart of a broader theory of evolutionInventing: science and engineeringMoore’s law just one example of manyYes there are limitsBut they’re not very limitingBased on the physics of computation and communication and on working paradigms (such as nanotubes)
  • http://www.nextnature.net/tag/virtual-for-real/page/9/
  • http://www.racunalniske-novice.com/images/1/H_MAX_1024x768/365321_f520.jpg
  • http://www.techiwarehouse.com/engine/51c38188/History,-Origins,-and-Generations-of-Computers
  • http://encefalus.com/cognitive/does-tweety-have-self-awareness/
  • http://www.futuretimeline.net/22ndcentury/2100-2149.htm
  • http://www.techknight.com/blog/tag/makerbot-cupcake-cnc-3d-printer/
  • http://www.buildinggreen.com/live/index.cfm/Product-Talk?&page=2
  • Transcript

    • 1. Technological Singularity & Entrepreneurship
      Or: why we will either live forever, or be killed by robots…
      Randy Lubin, Robert Denning, Nick Staubach
    • 2. Overview / history / philosophy
      Robert Denning
      2
    • 3. What is the singularity?
      A singularity is a paradigm-shifting event…
      The “technological singularity” is a hypothetical event occurring when technological progress becomes so rapid and the growth of super-human intelligence is so great that the future after the singularity becomes qualitatively different and harder to predict.
      3
    • 4. Kurzweil’s Singularity
      The coming technological singularity will allow us to augment our bodies and minds with technology.
      The singularity will result from the combination of three important technologies of the 21st century: genetics, nanotechnology, and robotics (including artificial intelligence).
      Four central postulates:
      A technological-evolutionary point known as "the singularity" exists as an achievable goal for humanity.
      Through a law of accelerating returns, technology is progressing toward the singularity at an exponential rate.
      The functionality of the human brain is quantifiable in terms of technology that we can build in the near future.
      Medical advancements make it possible for a significant number of his generation (Baby Boomers) to live long enough for the exponential growth of technology to intersect and surpass the processing of the human brain.
      4
    • 5. The Six Epochs
      5
      Evolution works through indirection: it creates a capability and then uses that capability to evolve the next stage.
    • 6. The Singularitarians
      Transhumanists, Immortalists, Extropians
      Techno-Utopians, Techno-Progressivists
      Blurring of human/machine
      Humans transcend limitations of their own biology
      Long-term immortality:
      Downloaded consciousness
      Upgraded human body
      “We have to live until the singularity”
      Museum of Death
      A just slightly more intelligent machine is all we need
      From there, machines and AI will perfect themselves
      Long-term problem-solving, an end to scarcity
      “There is a cosmic imperative to create more complexity”
      Museum of Poverty, Disease, Waste
      6
    • 7. Why is this good again?!
      Pop culture prefers the apocalyptic scenario…
      Skynet (Terminator)
      The Matrix
      I, Robot
      Frankenstein; cyborgs; “the Borg”
      But, as you’ll see, we are heading this way by forces beyond our control…
      Profit motives
      Desire for longevity
      And we are admittedly not preparing ourselves.
      But we can.
      7
    • 8. THE SINGULARITY COULD END UP BEING THE BEST THING THAT EVER HAPPENED TO THE HUMAN RACE. FULL STOP.
      8
      The Goliath of totalitarianism will be brought down by the David of the microchip.
      – Ronald Reagan, The Guardian, 14 June 1989
    • 9. The Law of Accelerating Returns
      An analysis of the history of technology shows that technological change is exponential, contrary to the common-sense "intuitive linear" view.
      9
      So we won’t experience 100 years of progress in the 21st century
      – it will be more like 20,000 years of progress
      (at today’s rate).
    • 10. Logarithmic Plot
      10
    • 11. Linear Plot
      11
    • 12. THE PARADIGM SHIFT RATE IS NOW DOUBLING ABOUT EVERY DECADE
      12
      Logarithmic Plot
    • 13. INFORMATION TECHNOLOGIES (OF ALL KINDS) DOUBLE THEIR POWER ABOUT (PRICE PERFORMANCE, CAPACITY, BANDWIDTH) EVERY YEAR
      13
    • 14. Moore’s Law is only one example
      Exponential Growth of Computing for 110 Years Moore's Law was the fifth, not the first, paradigm to bring exponential growth in computing
      Logarithmic Plot
      Calculations per Second per $1000
      Year
      14
    • 15. Logarithmic Plot
      Logarithmic Plot
      Logarithmic Plot
      Logarithmic Plot
      15
    • 16. Logarithmic Plot
      16
    • 17. Logarithmic Plot
      Logarithmic Plot
      Logarithmic Plot
      17
    • 18. Logarithmic Plot
      18
    • 19. Logarithmic Plot
      19
    • 20. EVERY FORM OF COMMUNICATIONS TECHNOLOGY (PRICE - PERFORMANCE, BANDWIDTH, CAPACITY) IS DOUBLING ABOUT EVERY 12 MONTHS
      20
    • 21. Logarithmic Plot
      21
    • 22. Logarithmic Plot
      Logarithmic Plot
      22
    • 23. Logarithmic Plot
      Linear Plot
      23
    • 24. Nanotechnology
      Logarithmic Plot
      Logarithmic Plot
      24
    • 25. Artificial Intelligence (via humans)
      Logarithmic Plot
      Logarithmic Plot
      25
    • 26. Biotechnology
      Logarithmic Plot
      Logarithmic Plot
      26
    • 27. Law of Accelerating Returns is Driving Economic Growth
      The portion of a product or service’s value comprised of information is asymptoting to 100%
      The cost of information at every level incurs deflation at ~ 50% per year
      This is a powerful deflationary force
      Completely different from the deflation in the 1929 Depression (collapse of consumer confidence & money supply)
      This is why entrepreneurialism is so important
      27
    • 28. Logarithmic Plot
      Linear Plot
      Linear Plot
      Logarithmic Plot
      28
    • 29. Logarithmic Plot
      29
    • 30. LogarithmicPlot
      30
    • 31. Logarithmic Plot
      31
    • 32. 32
    • 33. Linear Plot
      Logarithmic Plot
      Linear Plot
      Logarithmic Plot
      33
    • 34. Linear Plot
      Linear Plot
      Linear Plot
      Linear Plot
      34
    • 35. An example of Exponential Growth…
      5 Exobytes = 5 Billion Gigabytes
      35
    • 36. An example of Exponential Growth…
      5 Exobytes = 5 Billion Gigabytes
       From the start of time  ~2003
      36
    • 37. An example of Exponential Growth…
      5 Exobytes = 5 Billion Gigabytes
       From the start of time  ~2003
       in 2010 ~ 2 Days
      37
    • 38. An example of Exponential Growth…
      5 Exobytes = 5 Billion Gigabytes
       From the start of time  ~2003
       in 2010 ~ 2 Days
       in 2013
      38
    • 39. An example of Exponential Growth…
      5 Exobytes = 5 Billion Gigabytes
       From the start of time  ~2003
       in 2010 ~ 2 Days
       in 2013 ~ 10 minutes
      39
    • 40. It’s going to happen…
      SO…
      We need to prepare;
      We need to consider the ethical implications and develop a new moral framework;
      We need to consider the social and political frameworks necessary to deal with the transition.
      BUT…
      You don’t need to accept everything that might be possible…
      …But you do need to recognize that this paradigm shift is potentially imminent and clearly inevitable (and that, at the very least, the gap between now and when it happens is closing at an exponentially faster rate)…
      And that the event horizon will be unpredictable, and seismic.
      40
    • 41. Genetics / Nanotechnology
      Randy Lubin
      41
    • 42.
    • 43.
    • 44.
    • 45.
    • 46.
    • 47.
    • 48.
    • 49.
    • 50.
    • 51.
    • 52. Your mobile phone has more computing power than all of NASA in 1969. NASA launched a man into the moon. We launch a bird into pigs.
      –George Bray
    • 53.
    • 54.
    • 55.
    • 56.
    • 57.
    • 58.
    • 59.
    • 60.
    • 61.
    • 62.
    • 63. Genetics / Nanotechnology
      Randy Lubin
      63
    • 64. Robots and AI
      Nick Staubach
    • 65.
    • 66.
    • 67.
    • 68.
    • 69. Key Thoughts
      This is an awesome time to be alive
      Don’t think linearly (Future’s Coming Fast)
      You will be driving this change
    • 70. More Resources
      The Singularity is Near (Kurzweil)
      KurzweilAI.net
      SingularityHub.com