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Rand Fishkin, Wizard of Moz | @randfish | rand@moz.com
The Influence of Links in SEO
How they’re changing, evolving, and
still surprisingly powerful.
bit.ly/randlinks2015
Get the presentation:
Evidence of Links
Fading
Anecdotal Evidence – several folks in
the SEO community have come forward
w/ stories of sites/pages ranking without
links.
☁️☁️
Most of the sources I could find writing
publicly about this aren’t particularly well-
known, and the tactics sound sketchy.
Hard to see behind the CTA, but the
recommendation is to “get in group with
20 SEOs and search n click”
The more credible examples tended to
show how to rank using a site’s inherent,
existing authority (rather than a site
entirely without links)
Via Mashbout
The most credible example came
from Google’s John Mueller, who
claimed a friend had a local site in
Zurich ranking well without links
(sadly, he didn’t share details).
Via SERoundtable
My Bias: Show Repeatable, Transparent
Evidence & Examples
Examples in the SERPs – results where
the most linked-to sites/pages are being
outranked by poorly linked-to alternatives.
⎌⎌
Aha! Since #7 is the most powerful by links, but
doesn’t rank higher, links must be less valuable!
Via Keyword Difficulty
Yarr! Links be a sinking
ship me maties. Abandon
all hope ye who build
them.
Via Mozbar
Non-Link Signals on the Rise – results
where the most linked-to sites/pages are
being outranked by poorly linked-to
alternatives.
✈✈
Topical
Authority
Usage Data (CTR,
Traffic, etc)
User Data &
Personalization
UX (Speed, Mobile-
Friendly, etc)
Topic Modeling /
Hummingbird
Content Quality
Signals
Social Signals (Direct
& Indirect)
Which SignalsAre Potentially On the Rise?
Trust & Spam
Signals
e.g. High Correlationof CTR in Searchmetrics’RecentStudy
Via Searchmetrics’ Ranking Factors
Click-Through-Rate showed a 0.67
correlation
Link Manipulation Slowing – spammy
links don’t seem to be as powerful or
prevalent as they have been in the past.
☠☠
Fewer Spammers are Investing in Link Spam at the
Rates of the Prior 15 Years
Via Rank Modifying Spammers and Google Maps: Still Too Easy to Spam
Evidence Links
Are Still Strong
Correlation Data – raw link counts and
algorithmic link metrics are no less
correlated with rankings than 5 years ago.
⚖⚖
Links Haven’t Budged Much in Ranking Correlations
Via Moz’s 2013 Ranking Factors Study
Backlink metrics hovering in the
~0.29 correlation range
Links Haven’t Budged Much in Ranking Correlations
Via Searchmetrics’ Ranking Factors
Raw backlinks count at 0.31
Links Haven’t Budged Much in Ranking Correlations
From Mozscape’s January 2015 Update
Linking Domains count at 0.30
Link Experiments – pointing anchor text
links at a page in the SERPs still has a
dramatic, positive, and nearly immediate
result.
⚓⚓
1) Three word, informational keyword phrase with relatively light
competition and stable rankings
Test Conditions:
2) We selected two results (“A” and “B”), ranking #13 (“A”) and
#20 ( “B”) in logged-out, non-personalized results
3) We pointed links from 20 pages on 20 unique, high-DA, high-
trust, off-topic sites at both “A” and “B”
A) We pointed 20 links from 20
domains at this result with anchor
text exactly matching the query
phrase
#11
#12
#13
#14
#15
#16
#17
#18
#19
#20
B) We pointed 20 links from the
same 20 pages as “A” to this URL
with anchor text that did not contain
any words in the query
#11
#12
#13
#14
#15
#16
#17
#18
#19
#20
#1
#2
#3
#4
#5
#6
#7
#8
#9
#10
After 20 days, all of the links had
been indexed by Google. “A” and “B”
both moved up 4 positions. None of
the other results moved more than 2
positions.
Repeat the Experiment!
B) We pointed 20 links from 20
domains to this URL with anchor
text that did not contain any words
in the query
#11
#12
#13
#14
#15
#16
#17
#18
#19
#20
A) We pointed 20 links from the
same pages/domains at this result
with anchor text exactly matching
the query phrase
#11
#12
#13
#14
#15
#16
#17
#18
#19
#20
#1
#2
#3
#4
#5
#6
#7
#8
#9
#10
After 16 days, all of the links
had been indexed by Google.
“A” moved up 19 positions to
#1! B moved up 5 positions to
#9. None of the other results
moved more than 2 positions.
More in this Presentation
Google’s Crackdowns – penalization for
bad links continues unabated, and Google
appears to be more aggressive about
them than ever.
✂✂
Google is Clearly Cracking Down on Manipulative
Links
Many LinksAre Losing Value, Especially as the Web Grows:
Via BuiltVisible’s Blog
But, Thinking of theAlgorithm
as a Pie Chart May Not Be Right:
Via Rand’s Blog
What Might Google
Do With Links
(now, or in the future)
Combining Signals – links may only be
helping content, pages, or sites that have
passed other algorithmic quality bars.
⚛⚛
We Know Google’sApplied
Combinations & Filters of Data
in the Past (e.g. Hummingbird)
Via SEO By the Sea
Multiple Algorithms – Google may be
applying different sets or types of ranking
systems in different niches.
✵✵
There’s No Rule Requiring
Google toApply the Same
Algorithm(s) to Every Type of
Query
Via SEMRush
Machine/Deep Learning – Links may
only be used in rankings when they
correlate positively with successful
searches.
⛽⛽
Jeff Dean’s Slides on Deep Learning
Are a Must Read for SEOs
Google’s Deep Learning system studied YouTube
clips and eventually invented its own
classification/concept of “cats”
Replace YouTube with the Web and cats with any given
search query, and it’s not hard to imagine Google creating a
deep learning ranking algorithm
How Should
Marketers Respond
End Purely SEO-Focused Link Building
– Invest in tactics that serve multiple
marketing purposes AND simultaneously
help to earn links
☣☣
Link from a guest post by
Diana on Selfgrowth.com
Link from a guest post by
Geraldine on MarieClaire.
Run Competitive Analyses that Look
Beyond Links – seek out non-link metrics
that correspond with high vs. low rankings
☸☸
When we focus on links, we’re
sometimes blind to other tactics
sites use to rank well.
Make Link Acquisition a Secondary
Activity – First, earn attention & trust,
then find ways to earn the link.
✒✒
Google has plenty of types of data that correlate well to links – in the future,
those who have links, but lack other signals, will probably lose out.
Test the Power of Links in Your SERPs
– If a diverse set of links won’t move the
needle in your niche, you can move
quickly to other tactics.
☔☔
If you point links here, do the rankings
go up? How many links? How powerful
do they need to be?
Rand Fishkin, Wizard of Moz | @randfish | rand@moz.com
bit.ly/randlinks2015

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How Will Links Influence SEO in the Future

  • 1. Rand Fishkin, Wizard of Moz | @randfish | rand@moz.com The Influence of Links in SEO How they’re changing, evolving, and still surprisingly powerful.
  • 4. Anecdotal Evidence – several folks in the SEO community have come forward w/ stories of sites/pages ranking without links. ☁️☁️
  • 5. Most of the sources I could find writing publicly about this aren’t particularly well- known, and the tactics sound sketchy.
  • 6. Hard to see behind the CTA, but the recommendation is to “get in group with 20 SEOs and search n click”
  • 7. The more credible examples tended to show how to rank using a site’s inherent, existing authority (rather than a site entirely without links) Via Mashbout
  • 8. The most credible example came from Google’s John Mueller, who claimed a friend had a local site in Zurich ranking well without links (sadly, he didn’t share details). Via SERoundtable
  • 9. My Bias: Show Repeatable, Transparent Evidence & Examples
  • 10. Examples in the SERPs – results where the most linked-to sites/pages are being outranked by poorly linked-to alternatives. ⎌⎌
  • 11. Aha! Since #7 is the most powerful by links, but doesn’t rank higher, links must be less valuable! Via Keyword Difficulty
  • 12. Yarr! Links be a sinking ship me maties. Abandon all hope ye who build them. Via Mozbar
  • 13. Non-Link Signals on the Rise – results where the most linked-to sites/pages are being outranked by poorly linked-to alternatives. ✈✈
  • 14. Topical Authority Usage Data (CTR, Traffic, etc) User Data & Personalization UX (Speed, Mobile- Friendly, etc) Topic Modeling / Hummingbird Content Quality Signals Social Signals (Direct & Indirect) Which SignalsAre Potentially On the Rise? Trust & Spam Signals
  • 15. e.g. High Correlationof CTR in Searchmetrics’RecentStudy Via Searchmetrics’ Ranking Factors Click-Through-Rate showed a 0.67 correlation
  • 16. Link Manipulation Slowing – spammy links don’t seem to be as powerful or prevalent as they have been in the past. ☠☠
  • 17. Fewer Spammers are Investing in Link Spam at the Rates of the Prior 15 Years Via Rank Modifying Spammers and Google Maps: Still Too Easy to Spam
  • 19. Correlation Data – raw link counts and algorithmic link metrics are no less correlated with rankings than 5 years ago. ⚖⚖
  • 20. Links Haven’t Budged Much in Ranking Correlations Via Moz’s 2013 Ranking Factors Study Backlink metrics hovering in the ~0.29 correlation range
  • 21. Links Haven’t Budged Much in Ranking Correlations Via Searchmetrics’ Ranking Factors Raw backlinks count at 0.31
  • 22. Links Haven’t Budged Much in Ranking Correlations From Mozscape’s January 2015 Update Linking Domains count at 0.30
  • 23. Link Experiments – pointing anchor text links at a page in the SERPs still has a dramatic, positive, and nearly immediate result. ⚓⚓
  • 24. 1) Three word, informational keyword phrase with relatively light competition and stable rankings Test Conditions: 2) We selected two results (“A” and “B”), ranking #13 (“A”) and #20 ( “B”) in logged-out, non-personalized results 3) We pointed links from 20 pages on 20 unique, high-DA, high- trust, off-topic sites at both “A” and “B”
  • 25. A) We pointed 20 links from 20 domains at this result with anchor text exactly matching the query phrase #11 #12 #13 #14 #15 #16 #17 #18 #19 #20 B) We pointed 20 links from the same 20 pages as “A” to this URL with anchor text that did not contain any words in the query
  • 26. #11 #12 #13 #14 #15 #16 #17 #18 #19 #20 #1 #2 #3 #4 #5 #6 #7 #8 #9 #10 After 20 days, all of the links had been indexed by Google. “A” and “B” both moved up 4 positions. None of the other results moved more than 2 positions.
  • 28. B) We pointed 20 links from 20 domains to this URL with anchor text that did not contain any words in the query #11 #12 #13 #14 #15 #16 #17 #18 #19 #20 A) We pointed 20 links from the same pages/domains at this result with anchor text exactly matching the query phrase
  • 29. #11 #12 #13 #14 #15 #16 #17 #18 #19 #20 #1 #2 #3 #4 #5 #6 #7 #8 #9 #10 After 16 days, all of the links had been indexed by Google. “A” moved up 19 positions to #1! B moved up 5 positions to #9. None of the other results moved more than 2 positions.
  • 30. More in this Presentation
  • 31. Google’s Crackdowns – penalization for bad links continues unabated, and Google appears to be more aggressive about them than ever. ✂✂
  • 32. Google is Clearly Cracking Down on Manipulative Links
  • 33. Many LinksAre Losing Value, Especially as the Web Grows: Via BuiltVisible’s Blog
  • 34. But, Thinking of theAlgorithm as a Pie Chart May Not Be Right: Via Rand’s Blog
  • 35. What Might Google Do With Links (now, or in the future)
  • 36. Combining Signals – links may only be helping content, pages, or sites that have passed other algorithmic quality bars. ⚛⚛
  • 37. We Know Google’sApplied Combinations & Filters of Data in the Past (e.g. Hummingbird) Via SEO By the Sea
  • 38. Multiple Algorithms – Google may be applying different sets or types of ranking systems in different niches. ✵✵
  • 39. There’s No Rule Requiring Google toApply the Same Algorithm(s) to Every Type of Query Via SEMRush
  • 40. Machine/Deep Learning – Links may only be used in rankings when they correlate positively with successful searches. ⛽⛽
  • 41. Jeff Dean’s Slides on Deep Learning Are a Must Read for SEOs
  • 42. Google’s Deep Learning system studied YouTube clips and eventually invented its own classification/concept of “cats”
  • 43. Replace YouTube with the Web and cats with any given search query, and it’s not hard to imagine Google creating a deep learning ranking algorithm
  • 45. End Purely SEO-Focused Link Building – Invest in tactics that serve multiple marketing purposes AND simultaneously help to earn links ☣☣
  • 46. Link from a guest post by Diana on Selfgrowth.com
  • 47. Link from a guest post by Geraldine on MarieClaire.
  • 48. Run Competitive Analyses that Look Beyond Links – seek out non-link metrics that correspond with high vs. low rankings ☸☸
  • 49. When we focus on links, we’re sometimes blind to other tactics sites use to rank well.
  • 50. Make Link Acquisition a Secondary Activity – First, earn attention & trust, then find ways to earn the link. ✒✒
  • 51. Google has plenty of types of data that correlate well to links – in the future, those who have links, but lack other signals, will probably lose out.
  • 52. Test the Power of Links in Your SERPs – If a diverse set of links won’t move the needle in your niche, you can move quickly to other tactics. ☔☔
  • 53. If you point links here, do the rankings go up? How many links? How powerful do they need to be?
  • 54. Rand Fishkin, Wizard of Moz | @randfish | rand@moz.com bit.ly/randlinks2015