Today, India, with a successful green revolution has over 300 million living below the poverty line, mainly in rural areas. With 86 percent of India’s operational holdings being marginal and small (less than 2 hectares), largely unviable due to increasing input costs – of fertilizers, chemicals, water, seeds, agro-machinery and implements, (Acharya and Jogi, 2007), technology fatigue with increasing input prices and declining factor productivity (Swaminathan, 2005), increasing soil and water problems –both quantity (declining arable land and water tables) and quality (soil and water systems degradation) (ICAR, 1998; Government of India, 2005; 2008), limited rural employment opportunities (NCEUS, 2006), increasing capital intensity of agriculture (doubling the ICOR (Golait and Lokare, 2008), increasing deployment of labour saving technologies in agriculture and the low and declining employment elasticity (Palanivel, 2006), and the rate of growth of income per worker in the agriculture sector falling from 1.15% per annum (1980-81 to 1990-91) to 0.48% per annum (1990-91 to 2000-2001) (Sen and Bhatia, 2004; Bhalla and Hazell, 2003), the picture of agriculture in India is no longer green.
130321 agrarian crisis and way forward
Agrarian Crisis and Way Forward Ramanjaneyulu @ infosys campus on 21st March, 2013The evolution of agricultural technology was from labour intensive to capitalintensive and should move on to knowledge and thought intensiveRichard Lewontin and Richard Levins in Biology under Influence
Input Intensive Agriculture• Economic Crisis – Increasing costs of cultivation and decreasing returns – Reducing public support and increasing indebtedness• Ecological Crisis – is highly LINEAR, whereas traditionally agriculture was highly CYCLICAL. – is based on maximizing the output of a narrow range of species leading to monoculture of crops and varieties – is based on capital depletion and massive additions of external inputs (e.g. energy, water, chemicals) – views the farm as a factory with “inputs” (such as pesticides, feed, fertilizer, and fuel) and “outputs” (grain, cotton, chicken, and so forth) – never cared about the externalities• Socio-political crisis – Increasing tenancy, land use shift – Increasing farmers suicides, 270,940 in 17 years – Huge migration
State Farmer Suicides Difference (2nd Avg-1st Avg) 1995-2002 2003-2010Andhra Pradesh 1590 2301 +711Assam 155 291 +135MP+Chhattisgarh 2304 2829 +525Maharashtra 2508 3802 +1294The table only includes States whose annual averages have risen by over 100 farmer suicidesbetween the two periods. It also treats Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh as one unit fordata purposes.Source: NCRB Accidental Deaths & Suicides in India Reports 1995-2010
Smaller holdings• Between 1960-61 and 2003, the total number of operational holdings increased from 50.77 million to 101.27 million.• During the same period, the total operated area declined from 133.46 million hectares to 107.65 million hectares.• Thus average operated area declined from 2.63 hectares to 1.06 hectares.(NSSO 59th Round, Some Aspects of Operational Land Holdings in India, various issues)
Income and Expenditure of farmers Land Category Total Expenditure Percent of holding Income (Rs/month) farmers (Rs/month) <0.01 Landless 1380 2297 36 % 0.01-0.4 Sub marginal 1633 2390 0.4-1.0 Marginal 1809 2672 31 % 1.0-2.0 Small 2493 3148 17 % 2.0-4.0 Semi-medium 3589 3685 10 % 4.0-10.0 Medium 5681 4626 6% >10.0 Large 9667 6418 Total 2115 2770 All farmersSource: Report “On Conditions Of Work And Promotion Of Livelihoods In The Unorganised Sector” Arjun SenGupta Committee, 2007
Farm Incomes: Continuing problem• Incomes of farmers have stagnated or declined; while living costs have increased enormously• Disparity between agricultural incomes and other sectors has widened• Recent studies also show farm incomes have fallen e.g. From the decade of 1981-82 to the decade of 2001-02. • Income per ha in Karnataka from Rs.8809 to Rs.5671 • Income per ha in Maharashtra from Rs.4194 to Rs.3047 Where do the farmers go? To other sectors?
Where are the jobs?• From 2004-05 to 2009-10, only 2 million additional employment was generated but 55 million were added to working age population!• 25.1 million people lost their self-employment• Increase in the number of casual workers by 21.9 million, while growth in the number of regular workers nearly halved between 2004-05 and 2009-10, compared with the previous 5 year period. Sector-wise unemployment (millions) Sector 2004-05 2009-10 Difference Agriculture 258.93 243.21 -15.71 Manufacturing 55.77 48.54 -7.23 Services 112.81 112.33 -0.48 Non-Manufacturing 29.96 56.10 26.14 (construction) TOTAL 457.46 460.18 2.72
66th NSSO survey: deep urban-rural divide• Per capita expenditure of urban India was 88% higher than rural India• Average MPCE in 2009-10 to be Rs. 1054 and Rs. 1984 in rural India and urban India respectively• Top 10% of India’s rural population having an average MPCE (Rs. 2517) 5.6 times that of the poorest 10% (Rs. 453)• Top 10% of urban population having a 9.8 times higher average MPCE (Rs. 5863) compared that of the bottom 10% (Rs. 599)• Considering the average rural MPCE value of Rs. 1054 in isolation would be partially misleading. The rural MPCE median of Rs. 895 (about Rs. 30 per day) implies that half the rural population had MPCE below this level.• 40% of the rural population had MPCE below Rs. 800 while 60% had MPCE below Rs. 1000• Compared to the rural median MPCE (Rs. 895), the urban median MPCE level was 1.68 times higher at Rs. 1502 with 30% of the urban population having MPCE above Rs. 2100 and 20% having MPCE above Rs. 2600.
Reducing institutional credit• The share of agricultural credit in total bank lending nearly doubled from around 10% in the mid-1970s to about 18% in the late 1980s.• The share of agricultural credit in total bank lending declined from the peak of 18% in the late 1980s to about 11% in 2005, the decline has continued since then.• Rural branches of commercial banks has declined from 51.2% in March 1996 to 45.7% in March 2005.• Data also shows that the share of agricultural credit cornered by farm sizes of more than 5 acres has increased• Tenancy is informal and tenant farmers do not get access to credit(GOI, 2007).
Indirect finance• Till 1993 only direct finance was considered as part of (18%) priority sector lending• Indirect finance growing at an astonishing rate of 32.9% compared to 17% of direct finance from 2000 onwards• Indirect finance definition changed after 1993
Share of agriculture credit from different bank branches 1990-2008 (in %)Year Rural + semi- Only rural Urban+ Only All branches urban branches metropolitan metropolitan• Not adequate branches branches branches All India•1990 accessible- Not 85.1 55.5 14.9 4.0 100.0 crops, region, 1994 83.4 54.6 16.6 5.6 100.0 tenant farmers 1995 83.7 52.7 16.3 7.3 100.0 2005 69.3 43.0 30.7 19.0 100.0•2006 Interest 62.4 37.1 37.6 23.8 100.0 subvention who 2008 66.0 38.4 34.0 20.0 100.0 benefits? Maharashtra 1990 82.4 59.7 17.6 - 100.0•1994 How to increase 76.8 52.9 23.2 - 100.0 coverage? 1995 70.5 46.5 29.5 - 100.02005 41.8 26.1 58.2 48.5 100.02006 31.6 18.4 68.4 61.3 100.02008 42.4 25.7 57.6 48.3 100.0
Irrigation and fertilizer based productionSource: Government of India, 2009; RBI, 2009.
Fertilizer issues• NPK use is 14.78:1.56:1 where as ideally it is 4:2:1• The higher and imbalance use of chemical fertilizers threatened the soil health• Fertilizer use efficiency less than 50%• Factor productivity of fertilizer coming down• Fertilizer production largely dependent on Petroleum products and prices fluctuate with them• Phosphotic and Potash reserves coming down• Nutrient response drastically declined Period Response (kg/kg NPK) V FYP 15.0 Now 6.5• During 1961-2006 globally 8 fold increase in use of agrochemicals, but increase in grain yield only 1.5 times
Soil Organic matter The soil organic matter has declined from about 1.43 and 1.21 % in red and black soils in the 1950’s to about 0.80 to 0.86 percent respectively at present. Soil organic matter performs Hydrological, Biological and Nutrient related functions, which are both interrelated and distinct. The OM helps tide over dry spells and in reducing runoff. Soil moisture and organic matter is essential even for improving the efficiency of biofertilisers and chemical nutrients.
Pesticides poisoning past, present and future • Acute poisoning effects • Agriculture workers killed • Chronic poisoning effects • Children growth effected • Effect on reproductive health • Pesticides increased costs of cultivations • Rs. 1000 to 15000/acre • Ecological Disturbances • Beneficials killed, pest shifts • Pest resistances, pest resurgences • Poisoning of resources • Soils • Water • Milk • Food (NIN study found18 pesticides found in Vegetables in Hyderabad, 2012)
Loosing Seed Sovereignty• Increasing dependency on seeds over industry• Increasing costs of seed (>500% in the last 5 yrs)• Vegetable seeds costs upto 70,000/kg• No regulation..seed bill pending from 2004• Increased monoculture-few crops, few varieties and now few genes
Before Bt Cotton 70% increaseData for % area under BT for 2010-11 and 2011-12 are estimates and for 2005-06 is interpolated
GM crops and foods• Key issues • Relevance of GM crops • Biosafety issues • IPRs and Market monopoly • Conflicts of interests and scandals• Documentary evidences on Violations of regulations in field trials,• Newer pests and diseases like Bronze wilt, Tobacco Streak Virus, Mealybug• Studies on Environmental Risk Assessment and Socio Economic Impacts• Contamination organic cotton and Bt Bikeneri Narma• What does reports say – Public Consultation during Bt Brinjal Approval – Parliamentary Standing Committee – Technical Expert Committee• Liability and Redress Mechanism
Water Foot Prints Each ha of paddy yields @ 30 bags/acre and 75 5625 kg/ha grain kg/bag In terms of rice 70 % milling 3938 kg/ha Water requirement 2000 mm (2 m) crop water 20000 cu m water requirement x10000 sq m. Which is equal to 5.078 cu.m/kg rice (5078 litres/kg rice) Each family consuming monthly 30 152340 Litres of water per kg rice month per family This is equivalent to Each family consumes water @ 300 litres/day and for 30 9000 litres directly at around days Water consumption by way of 16.93 times higher than the rice is water we consume directly
Depleting natural resources • Increasing dark zones due to groundwater depletion • 30 % of soils are reported to be saline by the recent study by ministry of environment
Lift Irrigation Schemes in AP • 31 projects under lift irrigation • It needs about 206 million units electricity/day needs 12,682 Megawatt power/annum (currently we use 160.80 million units a day or 10,000 mega watt/yr) • 47 lakh ha would be brought under irrigation • Seven and half horse power motor will be used for every 10 acres and five lakh such motors have to be installed • Needs 37.5 lakh HP electricity (2775 mega watt) • Major lift irrigation schemes needs 6407 mega watt • Minor lift irrigation schemes needs 500 mega watt • to produce and supply one mega watt power • Rs. 4 cr to create infrastructure to produce • Rs. 4.5 cr for transmission and distributionToday 3,000 mega watts power is supplied freely to agriculture for 29 lakh pump sets
Farmer •Shifting to better and sustainable practices •Getting organised to deal with the markets and policiesPolicy Support Market Support•Supporting sustainable •Farmers moving up themodels value chain•Regulating unsustainable •Direct marketingpractices •Forward and backward•Invest more in agriculture linkages•Income security to farmers •Better prices
Ecological farming practices• Holistic understanding of the ecological and biological processes (Gestalt approach)• Harnessing the synergy of biodiversity, ecological balance, high energy efficiency,• Need a new science to under stand technologies and not a new technology with old science
Crop productivity vs land productivity• Productivity is narrowly understood as crop productivity in a monoculture situation, and• Often compared with western developed countries which have – advantage of long day light, – higher diurnal variation of temperature – monoculture to suit mechanisation due to labor shortage – limited by only one crop season• cannot be compared with tropical climate which is rich in diversity and three crop seasons.
What is needed….• Integrated farming systems integrating livestock, trees etc• Building soil organic matter• Conserving moisture• Rainwater harvesting• Locally adopted crops and varieties• Contingence planning• Moving away from agro-chemical use
Community Managed SustainableAgriculture in Andhra PradeshBasic Principles Regenerative, ecologically sound practices Organized communities planning, implementing and managing the program Govt/ngos playing facilitating agency role2004-05 started with 225 acres in one dist andreached 7 lakh acres in 2007-08 in 18 dist. WorldBank says this is a good tool for povertyeradication and now promoted as part of NRLMWith 50 % development expenditure one candouble the incomes of the farmersA national program called Mahila KrishiSashaktikaran Pariyojana (MKSP) is launchedbased on this experiencce 2009
Farmers and area covered under CMSA4000 38003500 35003000 28002500 25002000 2135 1997 2000 20001500 1394 1541 1381 1500 13001000 1000 700 600 1015 500 200 0.225 25 300 0 80 0.1 15 Acerage (000 acres) Farmers (000) Pesticide use (MT Active Ingradient)
Average Reduction in costs and net additional income for different crops Crops Reduction in cost Reduction in costs due to use Net additional due to NPM (Rs) of organic fertilisers/manures income (Rs) (Rs) Paddy 940 1450 5590 Maize 1319 2357 5676 Cotton 1733 1968 5676 Chillies 1733 1968 7701 Groundnut 1021 3462 10483 Vegetables 1400 390 37903rd Party Evaluation of Rashtriya Krishi Vikas Yojana (RKVY) : Community ManagedOrganic Farming implemented by SERPEvaluation TeamProf. R. Ratnakar, Director, Dr. M. Surya Mani, Professor, EXTENSION EDUCATIONINSTITUTE, (Southern Region), Ministry of Agriculture, Government of India
Who benefits from your purchase • Farmer gets Rs 15 for each kg of rice you purchase at Rs 35 • Farmer gets Rs 30 for each Kg of Toor Dal you purchase at Rs 80 • In case of other foods the farmer’s share is similar or lesser. • In processed foods farmers share is less than 10% and the rest goes to the Industry, advertising and sales. • Your purchases in retail chains go towards energy-hogging facilities like air-conditioned stores, cold storages and transportation all of which have a huge ecological cost.
Sahaja Aharam Organic Store Processing unitsFarmer Group A Seed market Producer Co-op-1Farmer Group B Producer Co-op-2Farmer Group C Other farmers and farmers groups Sahaja Aharam Market place Marketing Agency Direct to •Capacity building resellers •Institutional building Direct to Home Whole sale to •Value Chain Fund Consumer Co-op traders •Brand building •Healthy food Mobile Store •Qualtiy Management Bulk buyers •Affordable Price •Fair Trade •Max share to farmers Organic Store Yet to estiblish
Way forward• Moving from high external input agriculture to high internal input agriculture• Information based to knowledge based extension• Reducing the risks with uncertain weather conditions and degraded and limited natural resources, by adopting agroecologically suitable cropping patterns and production practices• Diversifying the assets and income sources to sustain the livelihoods by integrating livestock and horticulture into agriculture and promoting on-farm and off-farm employment opportunities,• Conserving and efficiently use the available natural resources like soil and water, and promote biomass generation,• Organizing farmers into institutions which can help them to have better planning, greater control over their production, help to access resources and support, improve food security and move up in the value chain,• Recasting subsidies to support farmers own resources and labor• Building livelihood security systems to withstand the natural disasters like drought, floods and other climate uncertainties.