Exchange Rate Theory
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Exchange Rate Theory

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Exchange Rate Theory Exchange Rate Theory Presentation Transcript

  • Exchange Rate Determination
    • There three theories of exchange rate determination :
    • Mint parity theory
    • Purchasing power parity theory
    • Interest Parity theory
    • Balance of Payments theory or demand and supply theory
  • PPP THEORY
    • The PPP principle, which was popularized by Gustav Cassell in the 1920s is most easily explained if we begin by considering the connection between exchange arte and local currency price of an individual commodity oin different countries . The connection between exchange and commodity price is known as the law of one price .
    • The law of one price states that in the absence of frictions such as shipping costs and tariffs , the price of a product when converted into a common currency such as the dollar ,using the spot rate ,is the same in every country .
    • Pus w= $4
    • Puk w= £2.5
    • The rate of exchange will be $/£=4/2.5=1.6
    • Pus=S($/£) Puk w…………………….(1)
    • For example ,if Puk = £ 2.5 , Pus=$4 and S($/£) =1.70,THEN THE DOLLAR PRICE OF WHEAT IN Britain is $4.25 /bushel . With the US price of $4/bushel ,wheat buyers will buy from the US AND NOT FROM Britain ,forcing up the US price and forcing down the British PROCE UNTILL THEY SATISFY EQUATION (1)
  • Absolute or Static Version Of PPP Condition
    • Pus=S($/£) Puk w
    • Or
    • S($/ £)= Pus/Puk
    • It takes into account the cost of basket of goods and services in the US measured in dollar and in Britain in pound.
    • This means that even if the law of one price holds for each individual good , Price indexes which depend on the weights attached to each goodwill not conform the to the law of one price . Partly for this reason an alternative form of PPP Condition which is stated in terms of rate of inflation can be very useful This form is called relative or dynamic form of PPP.
  • Relative Version of PPP
    • S*($/ £)= (1+P*us/1+P*uk) -1
    • S*($/ £)=PERCENTAGE CHANGE IN THE SPOT EXCHANGE OVER A YEAR .
    • Alternatively
    • S*($/ £)=P*us-P*uk/ 1+ P*uk
    • If the US EXPERIENCES INFLATION OF 5 PERCENT AND BRITAIN 10 PERCENT, THEN THE DOLLAR PRICE OF POUND SHOULD FALL . THAT IS THE POUND SHOUL DEPRECIATE AT A REAT OF 4.5 PERCENT . If the reverse conditions hold , POUND APPRECIATES IN THE VALUE AGAINST THE DOLLAR BY 4.8 PERCENT.
    • Both values are closed to 5 percent obtained taking an approximation
    • S*($/ £)=P*us-P*uk
    • This equation is good when inflation is low . Otherwise it will give a poor approximation
  • Criticism
    • 1.Constraints on the movements oc commodities
    • 2. Price index construction
    • 3. Effect of the statistical method employed
  • Interest Rate Parity theory
    • According to this theory the cost of money ( the cost of borrowing money or rateof return on financial investment ) when adjusted for the cost of covering foreign exchange risk , is equal across different countries .