Black Swans, Accounting Models, & Decision Life Cycles: Insights into the Current Economic Crisis<br />Rodney G. Alsup, D....
Me<br />What I am:<br />Accountant<br />Observer<br />Consultant<br />Professor<br />Reader<br />Blogger<br />What I am no...
Black Swan EventsNicholas Taleb, The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable<br />Attributes<br /><ul><li>Outlier ...
Impact – it carries an extreme impact
Explanations – human nature makes us concoct explanations  for its occurrence after the fact, making it explainable & pred...
Balance Sheet<br />Assets		↔<br />Liabilities		↑<br />Equity			↓<br />Income Statement<br />Revenue		↔<br />Expenses		↑<br...
Balance Sheet<br />Assets		↔<br />Liabilities		↑<br />Equity			↓<br />Income Statement<br />Revenue		↔<br />Expenses		↑<br...
Balance Sheet<br />Assets		↔<br />Liabilities		↑<br />Equity			↓<br />Income Statement<br />Revenue		↔<br />Expenses		↑<br...
Balance Sheet<br />Assets		↔<br />Liabilities		↑<br />Equity			↓<br />Income Statement<br />Revenue		↔<br />Expenses		↑<br...
Decision Life Cycle Comparisons<br />This decision life cycle diagram is a simplified version of the OODALoop created by C...
Headlines This Week<br />
High Probability Near-term Outcomes<br />Greece will default<br />French Banks require a bailout<br />US enters another re...
Future Options<br />
Some References<br />Endgame: The End of the Debt Supercycle and How It Changes Everything by John Mauldin & Jonathan Tepp...
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ASEBUSS EMBA Guest Speaker Session 10142011

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ASEBUSS EMBA Class Guest Speaker Slides for 14 October 2011

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ASEBUSS EMBA Guest Speaker Session 10142011

  1. 1. Black Swans, Accounting Models, & Decision Life Cycles: Insights into the Current Economic Crisis<br />Rodney G. Alsup, D.B.A., CPA, CITP<br />Professor of Accounting<br />ASEBUSS<br />
  2. 2. Me<br />What I am:<br />Accountant<br />Observer<br />Consultant<br />Professor<br />Reader<br />Blogger<br />What I am not:<br />Economist<br />Financial Analysts<br />Futurist<br />Forecaster<br />Insider<br />Expert<br />
  3. 3. Black Swan EventsNicholas Taleb, The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable<br />Attributes<br /><ul><li>Outlier – it lies outside the realm of regular expectations, because nothing in the past can convincingly point to its possibility
  4. 4. Impact – it carries an extreme impact
  5. 5. Explanations – human nature makes us concoct explanations for its occurrence after the fact, making it explainable & predictable</li></li></ul><li>Not A Black Swan<br />
  6. 6. Balance Sheet<br />Assets ↔<br />Liabilities ↑<br />Equity ↓<br />Income Statement<br />Revenue ↔<br />Expenses ↑<br />Net ↓<br />What is happening?<br />
  7. 7. Balance Sheet<br />Assets ↔<br />Liabilities ↑<br />Equity ↓<br />Income Statement<br />Revenue ↔<br />Expenses ↑<br />Net ↓<br />↓<br />What if?<br />
  8. 8. Balance Sheet<br />Assets ↔<br />Liabilities ↑<br />Equity ↓<br />Income Statement<br />Revenue ↔<br />Expenses ↑<br />Net ↓<br />↓<br />↓<br />What if?<br />
  9. 9. Balance Sheet<br />Assets ↔<br />Liabilities ↑<br />Equity ↓<br />Income Statement<br />Revenue ↔<br />Expenses ↑<br />Net ↓<br />↓<br />↓<br />↓<br />What if?<br />
  10. 10. Decision Life Cycle Comparisons<br />This decision life cycle diagram is a simplified version of the OODALoop created by COL John R. Boyd, a fighter pilot (Hammonds, 2002). His original design is more involved and useful for those wanting to explore the OODA Loop and perhaps adopt it as a part of a business school’s strategy process.<br />
  11. 11. Headlines This Week<br />
  12. 12. High Probability Near-term Outcomes<br />Greece will default<br />French Banks require a bailout<br />US enters another recession (double dip)<br />Elected officials continue with “business as usual”<br />China economy starts to decline<br />Deleveraging becomes a driving force<br />Families<br />Companies<br />Governments (local, state, national)<br />More budget cuts<br />More pain<br />
  13. 13. Future Options<br />
  14. 14. Some References<br />Endgame: The End of the Debt Supercycle and How It Changes Everything by John Mauldin & Jonathan Tepper<br />Newsletter: Outside the Box by John Mauldin http://www.johnmauldin.com/<br />Newsletter: Security Weekly by Stratfor Global Intelligence www.stratfor.com<br />Multiple Industry Focused Newsletters http://www.smartbrief.com/signup/index.jsp<br />www.blog.myeemba.com<br />rgalsup@gmail.com<br />
  15. 15. My Contact Information<br />RGAlsup@Gmail.com<br />www.SlideShare.net/alsup<br />
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