ASEBUSS EMBA Guest Speaker Session 10142011
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ASEBUSS EMBA Guest Speaker Session 10142011

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ASEBUSS EMBA Class Guest Speaker Slides for 14 October 2011

ASEBUSS EMBA Class Guest Speaker Slides for 14 October 2011

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    ASEBUSS EMBA Guest Speaker Session 10142011 ASEBUSS EMBA Guest Speaker Session 10142011 Presentation Transcript

    • Black Swans, Accounting Models, & Decision Life Cycles: Insights into the Current Economic Crisis
      Rodney G. Alsup, D.B.A., CPA, CITP
      Professor of Accounting
      ASEBUSS
    • Me
      What I am:
      Accountant
      Observer
      Consultant
      Professor
      Reader
      Blogger
      What I am not:
      Economist
      Financial Analysts
      Futurist
      Forecaster
      Insider
      Expert
    • Black Swan EventsNicholas Taleb, The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable
      Attributes
      • Outlier – it lies outside the realm of regular expectations, because nothing in the past can convincingly point to its possibility
      • Impact – it carries an extreme impact
      • Explanations – human nature makes us concoct explanations for its occurrence after the fact, making it explainable & predictable
    • Not A Black Swan
    • Balance Sheet
      Assets ↔
      Liabilities ↑
      Equity ↓
      Income Statement
      Revenue ↔
      Expenses ↑
      Net ↓
      What is happening?
    • Balance Sheet
      Assets ↔
      Liabilities ↑
      Equity ↓
      Income Statement
      Revenue ↔
      Expenses ↑
      Net ↓

      What if?
    • Balance Sheet
      Assets ↔
      Liabilities ↑
      Equity ↓
      Income Statement
      Revenue ↔
      Expenses ↑
      Net ↓


      What if?
    • Balance Sheet
      Assets ↔
      Liabilities ↑
      Equity ↓
      Income Statement
      Revenue ↔
      Expenses ↑
      Net ↓



      What if?
    • Decision Life Cycle Comparisons
      This decision life cycle diagram is a simplified version of the OODALoop created by COL John R. Boyd, a fighter pilot (Hammonds, 2002). His original design is more involved and useful for those wanting to explore the OODA Loop and perhaps adopt it as a part of a business school’s strategy process.
    • Headlines This Week
    • High Probability Near-term Outcomes
      Greece will default
      French Banks require a bailout
      US enters another recession (double dip)
      Elected officials continue with “business as usual”
      China economy starts to decline
      Deleveraging becomes a driving force
      Families
      Companies
      Governments (local, state, national)
      More budget cuts
      More pain
    • Future Options
    • Some References
      Endgame: The End of the Debt Supercycle and How It Changes Everything by John Mauldin & Jonathan Tepper
      Newsletter: Outside the Box by John Mauldin http://www.johnmauldin.com/
      Newsletter: Security Weekly by Stratfor Global Intelligence www.stratfor.com
      Multiple Industry Focused Newsletters http://www.smartbrief.com/signup/index.jsp
      www.blog.myeemba.com
      rgalsup@gmail.com
    • My Contact Information
      RGAlsup@Gmail.com
      www.SlideShare.net/alsup