ASEBUSS EMBA Guest Speaker Session 10142011

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ASEBUSS EMBA Class Guest Speaker Slides for 14 October 2011

ASEBUSS EMBA Class Guest Speaker Slides for 14 October 2011

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Transcript

  • 1. Black Swans, Accounting Models, & Decision Life Cycles: Insights into the Current Economic Crisis
    Rodney G. Alsup, D.B.A., CPA, CITP
    Professor of Accounting
    ASEBUSS
  • 2. Me
    What I am:
    Accountant
    Observer
    Consultant
    Professor
    Reader
    Blogger
    What I am not:
    Economist
    Financial Analysts
    Futurist
    Forecaster
    Insider
    Expert
  • 3. Black Swan EventsNicholas Taleb, The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable
    Attributes
    • Outlier – it lies outside the realm of regular expectations, because nothing in the past can convincingly point to its possibility
    • 4. Impact – it carries an extreme impact
    • 5. Explanations – human nature makes us concoct explanations for its occurrence after the fact, making it explainable & predictable
  • Not A Black Swan
  • 6. Balance Sheet
    Assets ↔
    Liabilities ↑
    Equity ↓
    Income Statement
    Revenue ↔
    Expenses ↑
    Net ↓
    What is happening?
  • 7. Balance Sheet
    Assets ↔
    Liabilities ↑
    Equity ↓
    Income Statement
    Revenue ↔
    Expenses ↑
    Net ↓

    What if?
  • 8. Balance Sheet
    Assets ↔
    Liabilities ↑
    Equity ↓
    Income Statement
    Revenue ↔
    Expenses ↑
    Net ↓


    What if?
  • 9. Balance Sheet
    Assets ↔
    Liabilities ↑
    Equity ↓
    Income Statement
    Revenue ↔
    Expenses ↑
    Net ↓



    What if?
  • 10. Decision Life Cycle Comparisons
    This decision life cycle diagram is a simplified version of the OODALoop created by COL John R. Boyd, a fighter pilot (Hammonds, 2002). His original design is more involved and useful for those wanting to explore the OODA Loop and perhaps adopt it as a part of a business school’s strategy process.
  • 11. Headlines This Week
  • 12. High Probability Near-term Outcomes
    Greece will default
    French Banks require a bailout
    US enters another recession (double dip)
    Elected officials continue with “business as usual”
    China economy starts to decline
    Deleveraging becomes a driving force
    Families
    Companies
    Governments (local, state, national)
    More budget cuts
    More pain
  • 13. Future Options
  • 14. Some References
    Endgame: The End of the Debt Supercycle and How It Changes Everything by John Mauldin & Jonathan Tepper
    Newsletter: Outside the Box by John Mauldin http://www.johnmauldin.com/
    Newsletter: Security Weekly by Stratfor Global Intelligence www.stratfor.com
    Multiple Industry Focused Newsletters http://www.smartbrief.com/signup/index.jsp
    www.blog.myeemba.com
    rgalsup@gmail.com
  • 15. My Contact Information
    RGAlsup@Gmail.com
    www.SlideShare.net/alsup