Your SlideShare is downloading. ×
0
ASEBUSS EMBA Guest Speaker Session 10142011
ASEBUSS EMBA Guest Speaker Session 10142011
ASEBUSS EMBA Guest Speaker Session 10142011
ASEBUSS EMBA Guest Speaker Session 10142011
ASEBUSS EMBA Guest Speaker Session 10142011
ASEBUSS EMBA Guest Speaker Session 10142011
ASEBUSS EMBA Guest Speaker Session 10142011
ASEBUSS EMBA Guest Speaker Session 10142011
ASEBUSS EMBA Guest Speaker Session 10142011
ASEBUSS EMBA Guest Speaker Session 10142011
ASEBUSS EMBA Guest Speaker Session 10142011
ASEBUSS EMBA Guest Speaker Session 10142011
ASEBUSS EMBA Guest Speaker Session 10142011
ASEBUSS EMBA Guest Speaker Session 10142011
Upcoming SlideShare
Loading in...5
×

Thanks for flagging this SlideShare!

Oops! An error has occurred.

×
Saving this for later? Get the SlideShare app to save on your phone or tablet. Read anywhere, anytime – even offline.
Text the download link to your phone
Standard text messaging rates apply

ASEBUSS EMBA Guest Speaker Session 10142011

315

Published on

ASEBUSS EMBA Class Guest Speaker Slides for 14 October 2011

ASEBUSS EMBA Class Guest Speaker Slides for 14 October 2011

Published in: Education, Technology, Business
0 Comments
0 Likes
Statistics
Notes
  • Be the first to comment

  • Be the first to like this

No Downloads
Views
Total Views
315
On Slideshare
0
From Embeds
0
Number of Embeds
0
Actions
Shares
0
Downloads
7
Comments
0
Likes
0
Embeds 0
No embeds

Report content
Flagged as inappropriate Flag as inappropriate
Flag as inappropriate

Select your reason for flagging this presentation as inappropriate.

Cancel
No notes for slide

Transcript

  • 1. Black Swans, Accounting Models, &amp; Decision Life Cycles: Insights into the Current Economic Crisis<br />Rodney G. Alsup, D.B.A., CPA, CITP<br />Professor of Accounting<br />ASEBUSS<br />
  • 2. Me<br />What I am:<br />Accountant<br />Observer<br />Consultant<br />Professor<br />Reader<br />Blogger<br />What I am not:<br />Economist<br />Financial Analysts<br />Futurist<br />Forecaster<br />Insider<br />Expert<br />
  • 3. Black Swan EventsNicholas Taleb, The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable<br />Attributes<br /><ul><li>Outlier – it lies outside the realm of regular expectations, because nothing in the past can convincingly point to its possibility
  • 4. Impact – it carries an extreme impact
  • 5. Explanations – human nature makes us concoct explanations for its occurrence after the fact, making it explainable &amp; predictable</li></li></ul><li>Not A Black Swan<br />
  • 6. Balance Sheet<br />Assets ↔<br />Liabilities ↑<br />Equity ↓<br />Income Statement<br />Revenue ↔<br />Expenses ↑<br />Net ↓<br />What is happening?<br />
  • 7. Balance Sheet<br />Assets ↔<br />Liabilities ↑<br />Equity ↓<br />Income Statement<br />Revenue ↔<br />Expenses ↑<br />Net ↓<br />↓<br />What if?<br />
  • 8. Balance Sheet<br />Assets ↔<br />Liabilities ↑<br />Equity ↓<br />Income Statement<br />Revenue ↔<br />Expenses ↑<br />Net ↓<br />↓<br />↓<br />What if?<br />
  • 9. Balance Sheet<br />Assets ↔<br />Liabilities ↑<br />Equity ↓<br />Income Statement<br />Revenue ↔<br />Expenses ↑<br />Net ↓<br />↓<br />↓<br />↓<br />What if?<br />
  • 10. Decision Life Cycle Comparisons<br />This decision life cycle diagram is a simplified version of the OODALoop created by COL John R. Boyd, a fighter pilot (Hammonds, 2002). His original design is more involved and useful for those wanting to explore the OODA Loop and perhaps adopt it as a part of a business school’s strategy process.<br />
  • 11. Headlines This Week<br />
  • 12. High Probability Near-term Outcomes<br />Greece will default<br />French Banks require a bailout<br />US enters another recession (double dip)<br />Elected officials continue with “business as usual”<br />China economy starts to decline<br />Deleveraging becomes a driving force<br />Families<br />Companies<br />Governments (local, state, national)<br />More budget cuts<br />More pain<br />
  • 13. Future Options<br />
  • 14. Some References<br />Endgame: The End of the Debt Supercycle and How It Changes Everything by John Mauldin &amp; Jonathan Tepper<br />Newsletter: Outside the Box by John Mauldin http://www.johnmauldin.com/<br />Newsletter: Security Weekly by Stratfor Global Intelligence www.stratfor.com<br />Multiple Industry Focused Newsletters http://www.smartbrief.com/signup/index.jsp<br />www.blog.myeemba.com<br />rgalsup@gmail.com<br />
  • 15. My Contact Information<br />RGAlsup@Gmail.com<br />www.SlideShare.net/alsup<br />

×