CIOs and other enterprise leaders typically assume that economic expansion will trigger recruitment and talent competition, as it has in the past. .. through 2010 and 2011 revenue and growth will occur without any meaningful increase in employment. CIOs and other executive leaders must think and behave differently. Organizations will restructure as technology ownership, development, delivery and management practices are disrupted by consumerization, cloud computing and software as a service (SaaS). Organizations need IT managers who not only will lead modern technology but also be skilled in innovation, Web behavior, rapid development and socializing change. New and lighter-weight forms of technology will help re-establish economic growth, but at the expense of employment growth. Jobs lost will likely never return, even as businesses demand greater output to drive new revenue. People will look outside traditional IT organizations toward the cutting edge of technology — mobile computing, mobile applications, social media, Web 2.0, informatics, cloud computing — and away from heavy infrastructure, administrative applications. Recast your assumptions. Instead of assuming that demand can be met by turning the people pipeline on and off, assume that the pipeline is indefinitely constrained, and investigate or invent new ways to satisfy demand. Likely pathways include cloud computing, use of the collective for problem solving, SaaS, and modular approaches to workforce design and assignment. Rethink what people work on... Reset and renegotiate priorities, approve no projects and initiatives without assessing the impact on resource availability, and recast the application and technology portfolio to focus only on high-impact initiatives. Design workgroups and teams for small size and for versatility among the members. Small groups can swarm more rapidly and effectively around market opportunities, new- product initiatives and channel integration. Versatilists will help businesses reap knowledge across multiple perspectives, areas of expertise and communities.
Waterfall/RUP is in decline. It’s proven more risky, expensive, and delays innovations reaching our users How do we evolve our governance processes, not just development? A key Lean principle is that long cycle times increase waste and reduce quality. Waterfall/RUP processes increase the time between when you need information / feedback, and when you get it. They also lengthen the time between when you make a mistake and when you discover it. Meanwhile, these processes create excess Work In Process (WIP) that drives up both risk and waste in our projects. When we deliver fully-tested features in a smooth incremental flow, rather than trying to bundle all features in test-last, big-bang release, we dramatically reduce the amount of inventory (WIP) we carry throughout our development cycle. We plan and manage our projects with fewer requirements, fewer tasks and fewer defects. The result is that Agile projects are much more predictable, have higher quality and deliver more value to our users. “ Waterfall processes may be familiar and widespread, but they also bring numerous ills. Teams waste much time producing deliverables — such as large requirements specs, detailed architecture, and numerous strategy documents — that don’t contribute to a solution. Teams often wait until very late in a project to deliver working code for testing or for business sponsors’ evaluation — and only then find they have built the wrong thing or misunderstood the requirements. This tendency to push risk until later in the project makes waterfall projects unpredictable, as project plans are often more fiction than fact.” Forrester.
Team size and distribution are not obstacles. Half of projects have over 50 team members Forrester did not measure agile adoption rates in 2008.
Waterfall is in decline. Ad-hoc Agile projects are going on throughout our company How do I harness and help lead these efforts? Now is an important time to implement Agile and Lean. Aggressive large companies began their adoptions 3-5 years ago. The trails are blazed and the adoption patterns are well understood by Rally. This ensures a successful transition for companies with lower risk profiles, but still want to take advantage of Agile and Lean benefits to stay ahead of their rivals. “ based on client feedback and market observation Gartner places the percentage of IT organizations that are using agile or iterative at a productive level of maturity (Levels 2, 3, 4 and 5) between 15% and 30%. Table 1. Agile Adoption Levels Level Pessimistic Optimistic 0 25% 20% 1 60% 50% 2 8% 15% 3 5% 10% 4 1% 3% 5 1% 2% Source: Gartner (December 2008)
QSMA/Cutter study details how Agile development projects compare with traditional benchmarks for time-to-market, productivity and defect counts. Here we show one measure from the study. An eye-catching fact was that compared to how long they had been using plan-driven development methods, Agile is brand new in these companies - only three companies had more than two years experience. Even so, the Agile projects trounced their traditional counterparts. This is encouraging. While no one should say adopting Agile is easy, this study shows that returns happen fast for teams making the investment. Each project required team members to invest an average of 15 hours gathering metrics, analyzing the data and summarizing the results. The results are impressive. Projects in the study were reasonably big, with over half the releases implementing between 100 to 1000 stories. And unlike the Standish Group’s Chaos studies, the companies represent a nice spectrum of real-world IT, ISV and engineering projects, so more of us can relate to the findings. QSMA concluded that, as compared to industry benchmarks, the development teams utilizing Agile practices were on average: 37 percent faster delivering software to market. - Rally companies were 50% faster. Where would your company be with this delivery speed? 16 percent more productive. - Rally companies were 25% more productive. That’s like adding 25 people to a 100-person department, free! Able to maintain normal defect counts despite significant schedule compression. - Defects rise exponentially as schedules are cut. But not for Agile projects where defect rates were ¼ expected. Take a look for yourself and draw your own conclusions: http://www.rallydev.com/downloads/document/103-the-agile-impact-report-proven-performance-metrics-from-the-agile-enterprise.html
Rally’s products and services live in two traditional markets that are undergoing rapid change. Application Lifecycle Management (ALM) (Product &) Project Portfolio Management (PPM) The rapid cycle time Agile practices promote change the needs we have for team collaboration and software project management. Traditional, heavier tools for allowing managing large inventories of requirements, tests and defects cannot support the real-time visibility into status, progress and quality we need to operate at this quicker pace. Software- and Platform- as-a-Service (SaaS) offerings with pay-as-you-go-pricing have lower TCO, better serve distributed teams and integrate easier than massive client/server apps. Assumptions on Gartner & IDC 2010 PPM for IT = $910M at 9% CAGR Test Management = $2.1B Testing * 25% = $500M at 3.5% CAGR Requirements Management = $214M at 7.5% CAGR Defect Management = $1.5B SCCM * 33% = $500M at 2.5% CAGR http://www.pcworld.com/businesscenter/article/170317/oracle_looks_to_planning_apps_for_next_billions.html ...It's no accident that Oracle has decided to give such a high-profile showcase to Primavera, which it acquired last year. While PPM software may not be sexy, demand for it is growing explosively. Forrester Research expects what it defines as the &quot;project based solutions&quot; market to reach US$6.5 billion by 2010, up from $4.25 billion in 2007...
The new normal: no hiring to support growth <ul><li>Implications: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Productivity gains are needed from Lean/Agile processes </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Cloud apps mean IT infrastructure jobs will decline and not return </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Companies seek skills in innovation, web behavior, rapid development and socializing change. </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Recommendations: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Assume people resources are indefinitely constrained </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Invent and invest in new ways to satisfy customer demand </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Design workgroups for small size and agility - Cross-functional teams swarm opportunities faster </li></ul></ul>Through 2011, 68% of CEOs expect sales growth while only 19% expect employment growth December 15, 2009; Gartner Predicts 2010
Waterfall / RUP cause waste and add risk, but you need executive leadership to change “ Waterfall processes have become obstacles to speed, quality and predictability.” “ Enterprises have defined waterfall process standards based on or similar to RUP, and most development shops now have these waterfall processes in their DNA.” December 2008 Lean Software Is Agile, Fit-To-Purpose, And Efficient
Execs must harness & mature their teams’ ad-hoc Agile approaches <ul><li>Half of IT organizations have ad-hoc agile projects </li></ul>“ Agile & Lean are past the tipping point. Waterfall/ RUP is in decline.” David Norton, Gartner, Dec 2009. SOURCE: Gartner, Current State of Agile Adoption Dec 2008
QSMA Benchmarks the Strength of Agile Companies Over Rivals <ul><li>50% faster to market </li></ul><ul><li>25% more productive </li></ul><ul><li>With one-quarter the expected defects </li></ul>Even when new to Agile, Rally clients are: QSMA/Cutter Agile Impact Report - Proven Performance Metrics from the Agile Enterprise Time-to-Market Trend Agile projects vs 7000 plan-based projects Project Size & Complexity User Stories, Code (KSLOC)
Agile & Cloud modernize $3.4B ALM & $6.5B PPM markets <ul><li>New ALM / PPM vendors scale planning, collaboration and visibility across roles in the value stream </li></ul><ul><li>Cloud-based offerings disrupt old-line, high priced business models of incumbent ALM/PPM vendors </li></ul>IDC MarketScape: IT Project and Portfolio Management, 2009 Vendor Shares | Gartner Total AD Software Revenues 2008 - 2013