Your SlideShare is downloading. ×
  • Like
  • Save
LCC Futures Course
Upcoming SlideShare
Loading in...5
×

Thanks for flagging this SlideShare!

Oops! An error has occurred.

×

Now you can save presentations on your phone or tablet

Available for both IPhone and Android

Text the download link to your phone

Standard text messaging rates apply

LCC Futures Course

  • 697 views
Published

From a 5 days intensive futures course I created for BA students at London College of Communication

From a 5 days intensive futures course I created for BA students at London College of Communication

Published in Design
  • Full Name Full Name Comment goes here.
    Are you sure you want to
    Your message goes here
    Be the first to comment
No Downloads

Views

Total Views
697
On SlideShare
0
From Embeds
0
Number of Embeds
2

Actions

Shares
Downloads
0
Comments
0
Likes
1

Embeds 0

No embeds

Report content

Flagged as inappropriate Flag as inappropriate
Flag as inappropriate

Select your reason for flagging this presentation as inappropriate.

Cancel
    No notes for slide

Transcript

  • 1. Futures Rakhi Rajani rakhi@humaneditions.comRakhi Rajani :: LCC Futures Module :: 5 Day Intensive :: February 2012
  • 2. I am a Chartered Psychologist working in DesignRakhi Rajani :: LCC Futures Module :: 5 Day Intensive :: February 2012
  • 3. I Study Human Behaviour and Identify Global Trends to Design SolutionsRakhi Rajani :: LCC Futures Module :: 5 Day Intensive :: February 2012
  • 4. 5 Day Intensive Day 1 - Predicting the future? Day 2 - Creating Worlds & Persona’s + Projecting these into the future Day 3 - Developing a scenario Day 4 - Presenting your ideas Day 5 - Final presentations & FeedbackRakhi Rajani :: LCC Futures Module :: 5 Day Intensive :: February 2012
  • 5. Assignment Develop a future scenario for 2032Rakhi Rajani :: LCC Futures Module :: 5 Day Intensive :: February 2012
  • 6. Deliverables • 30 min GROUP presentation on Day 5 • Hand this in as a hard copy and on CD • This should include referenced research, statistics, quotes etc. • Each INDIVIDUAL person to hand in 500 words on the relevance (including advantages and pitfalls) of Futures/ Forecasting in Design.Rakhi Rajani :: LCC Futures Module :: 5 Day Intensive :: February 2012
  • 7. Resource Files http://db.tt/tvB3Z8S2Rakhi Rajani :: LCC Futures Module :: 5 Day Intensive :: February 2012
  • 8. Day 1 Predicting the Future? Lecture on 1030 - 1145 Forecasting, Trends & STEEP Analysis 1145 - 1200 Break 1200 - 1300 Assignment Briefing 1300 - 1400 Lunch 1400 - 1600 Group WorkRakhi Rajani :: LCC Futures Module :: 5 Day Intensive :: February 2012
  • 9. When you think ‘future’, what comes to mind?Rakhi Rajani :: LCC Futures Module :: 5 Day Intensive :: February 2012
  • 10. Rakhi Rajani :: LCC Futures Module :: 5 Day Intensive :: February 2012
  • 11. Rakhi Rajani :: LCC Futures Module :: 5 Day Intensive :: February 2012
  • 12. Rakhi Rajani :: LCC Futures Module :: 5 Day Intensive :: February 2012
  • 13. Rakhi Rajani :: LCC Futures Module :: 5 Day Intensive :: February 2012
  • 14. We all have very similar ideas about the future. It involves clever technology, digital interfaces, robots, etcRakhi Rajani :: LCC Futures Module :: 5 Day Intensive :: February 2012
  • 15. It’s all very ‘sci fi’Rakhi Rajani :: LCC Futures Module :: 5 Day Intensive :: February 2012
  • 16. Rakhi Rajani :: LCC Futures Module :: 5 Day Intensive :: February 2012
  • 17. But what else influences the future?Rakhi Rajani :: LCC Futures Module :: 5 Day Intensive :: February 2012
  • 18. Drivers of Change... Social Technological Economic Environmental PoliticalRakhi Rajani :: LCC Futures Module :: 5 Day Intensive :: February 2012
  • 19. Why Forecast? • As designers, our vision of the future affects society because we build the interactions that people will have. • We influence trends and define directions in the visual fields of fashion, music, youth culture, interiors • We build social futures and influence demographic change through technological innovation • We influence marketsRakhi Rajani :: LCC Futures Module :: 5 Day Intensive :: February 2012
  • 20. Forecasting allows us to explore possibilitiesRakhi Rajani :: LCC Futures Module :: 5 Day Intensive :: February 2012
  • 21. Arthur C. Clarke 1964 (Part1)Rakhi Rajani :: LCC Futures Module :: 5 Day Intensive :: February 2012
  • 22. Arthur C. Clarke 1964 (Part2)Rakhi Rajani :: LCC Futures Module :: 5 Day Intensive :: February 2012
  • 23. But it can take a while for these possibilities to be builtRakhi Rajani :: LCC Futures Module :: 5 Day Intensive :: February 2012
  • 24. Apple Knowledge Navigator 1987Rakhi Rajani :: LCC Futures Module :: 5 Day Intensive :: February 2012
  • 25. Driverless CarsRakhi Rajani :: LCC Futures Module :: 5 Day Intensive :: February 2012
  • 26. Predicting vs Forecasting Prediction = Making a statement about what will happen with some certainty. This can be a hunch or superstition, or... Forecasting = How hidden currents in the present might signal change for society, companies, the world etc in the future. There is logic and evidence in good forecasts.Rakhi Rajani :: LCC Futures Module :: 5 Day Intensive :: February 2012
  • 27. The trouble with predictions Alan Sugar believed the iPod faced imminent doom when interviewed in the Daily Telegraph in February 2005, declaring it would be "dead, finished, gone" by the following Christmas. The ten worst IT predictions of all time, PC Pro magazine, 26 Sept 2006Rakhi Rajani :: LCC Futures Module :: 5 Day Intensive :: February 2012
  • 28. Your AssignmentRakhi Rajani :: LCC Futures Module :: 5 Day Intensive :: February 2012
  • 29. In 2032... What is the future of: • Group 1 - Travelling abroad • Group 2 - Home entertainment • Group 3 - Personal communication • Group 4 - University educationRakhi Rajani :: LCC Futures Module :: 5 Day Intensive :: February 2012
  • 30. Research• Primary/Social - go out and find out about the context • ask people • get a history• Secondary/Stats - on how industries are changing • Economist, FT, Wired etc • World Economic Forum
  • 31. Read/Review 1. For ethics, watch Google Baby: http:// www.channel4.com/programmes/google-baby/ 2. For examples of what exists now, watch Home of the Future: http://www.homeofthefuture.tv 3. Read/Review at 3 of the articles/videos/books in the resources document 4. Look at the BT technology timeline: http:// www.btplc.com/innovation/news/timeline/ 5. Read: http://newspaper.li/the-future/Rakhi Rajani :: LCC Futures Module :: 5 Day Intensive :: February 2012
  • 32. For Wednesday... 1. Bring in magazines with people, objects, spaces etc in them. We will need them for the workshop 2. Give a 10 minute presentation on what major STEEP drivers you have identified that you believe will affect the future of your area in the next 20 yearsRakhi Rajani :: LCC Futures Module :: 5 Day Intensive :: February 2012
  • 33. The best way to predict the future, is to invent it - Alan KayRakhi Rajani :: LCC Futures Module :: 5 Day Intensive :: February 2012
  • 34. Day 2 Creating Worlds & Persona’s + Projecting these into the future Lecture on Persona & 1000 - 1130 World Development 1130 - 1145 Break Progress 1145 - 1300 Presentations 1300 - 1400 Lunch 1400 - 1600 WorkshopRakhi Rajani :: LCC Futures Module :: 5 Day Intensive :: February 2012
  • 35. First Step to Building a Scenario • Define the world as it is now • Define people as they are nowRakhi Rajani :: LCC Futures Module :: 5 Day Intensive :: February 2012
  • 36. The world • How does the world work now? • How do people interact in this world? • What are the elements, tools, methods? • What are the characteristics?Rakhi Rajani :: LCC Futures Module :: 5 Day Intensive :: February 2012
  • 37. Persona • Fictional character that represents a group of people • A ‘typical’ participant in your world • eg, if drivers say that 80% of the population will be over 70, is your persona in this age range or the other? • Helps you tell your storyRakhi Rajani :: LCC Futures Module :: 5 Day Intensive :: February 2012
  • 38. Rakhi Rajani :: LCC Futures Module :: 5 Day Intensive :: February 2012 http://marketing.yell.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/09/Persona-example-1.jpg
  • 39. Rakhi Rajani :: LCC Futures Module :: 5 Day Intensive :: February 2012 http://www.azinno.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/10/persona-01.png
  • 40. Rakhi Rajani :: LCC Futures Module :: 5 Day Intensive :: February 2012 http://robertgirvin.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/10/bUserInterfaceIgigiUserPersona.jpg
  • 41. Projecting into the future • Take the world as it is now and apply the drivers of change • Take the persona as it is now and apply the drivers of change • Decide how the drivers of change affect the world and the people and then redefine themRakhi Rajani :: LCC Futures Module :: 5 Day Intensive :: February 2012
  • 42. Give your future world a nameRakhi Rajani :: LCC Futures Module :: 5 Day Intensive :: February 2012
  • 43. Describe your future worldRakhi Rajani :: LCC Futures Module :: 5 Day Intensive :: February 2012
  • 44. For Friday... 1. Finish defining your persona and world 2. Give a 10 minute presentation on where your world and persona are now & initial thoughts on your scenarioRakhi Rajani :: LCC Futures Module :: 5 Day Intensive :: February 2012
  • 45. Day 3 Developing a scenario 1000 - 1130 Lecture on Scenarios 1130 - 1145 Break 1145 - 1300 Progress Presentations 1300 - 1400 Lunch 1400 - 1600 WorkshopRakhi Rajani :: LCC Futures Module :: 5 Day Intensive :: February 2012
  • 46. What is a Scenario • Story • Discourse • CommentaryRakhi Rajani :: LCC Futures Module :: 5 Day Intensive :: February 2012
  • 47. Story • WHAT is told • Sequence of events that happen in a likely order, duration and frequency • Characters • Engaging • Unfolds over time and in place(s)Rakhi Rajani :: LCC Futures Module :: 5 Day Intensive :: February 2012
  • 48. Touch points Character(s) Character(s) Character(s) Character(s) Character(s) Character(s) TIME Character Object Service Service Object Nature EPISODE CONTEXTRakhi Rajani :: LCC Futures Module :: 5 Day Intensive :: February 2012
  • 49. Structure, Suspense, LaughterRakhi Rajani :: LCC Futures Module :: 5 Day Intensive :: February 2012
  • 50. Discourse • HOW a story is told • The choice and arrangement of events and plots, the language and perspective of the narrator • Narrative techniques (expression, vocabulary, style of communication)contribute to completely different representations of the same story • There are many discourses on any particular subject • Discourse Analysis is attributed to the French philosopher Michel Foucault (1926-1984)Rakhi Rajani :: LCC Futures Module :: 5 Day Intensive :: February 2012
  • 51. Commentary • A point of view • Your take on the meaning of something • The expression of opinion or explanation of events, situations etcRakhi Rajani :: LCC Futures Module :: 5 Day Intensive :: February 2012
  • 52. Futures Scenario = Raw Materials (Story) + Shape of Story (Discourse) to Create a Point of View on the Future (Commentary)Rakhi Rajani :: LCC Futures Module :: 5 Day Intensive :: February 2012
  • 53. Memorable Stories The best story you ever heard? - meaning The story you remember? - emotion The story you want to remember? - feelingRakhi Rajani :: LCC Futures Module :: 5 Day Intensive :: February 2012
  • 54. Pick the appropriate medium Video Book Animation Storyboard ...Rakhi Rajani :: LCC Futures Module :: 5 Day Intensive :: February 2012
  • 55. Future Scenarios TechRakhi Rajani :: LCC Futures Module :: 5 Day Intensive :: February 2012
  • 56. Future Scenarios Sixth SenseRakhi Rajani :: LCC Futures Module :: 5 Day Intensive :: February 2012
  • 57. Rakhi Rajani :: LCC Futures Module :: 5 Day Intensive :: February 2012
  • 58. The Future That Never Happened http://www.wired.com/magazine/2010/08/ff_future_ferrell/all/1Rakhi Rajani :: LCC Futures Module :: 5 Day Intensive :: February 2012
  • 59. The world of ??? from what it is to what it will be Travelling Abroad 2012 Drivers 2032 Home Entertainment 2012 Drivers 2032 Personal Communications 2012 Drivers 2032 University Education 2012 Drivers 2032Rakhi Rajani :: LCC Futures Module :: 5 Day Intensive :: February 2012
  • 60. Scenario How will the world work? What objects, services, people etc... The Scenario Describe the experience of being in this world What will the world look like? Is it dark, sunny, derelict, polished etc... What is the story? How does it unfold over time? What are the touch-points with objects, products, services and other people? What will people do? What will people feel, think etc...Rakhi Rajani :: LCC Futures Module :: 5 Day Intensive :: February 2012
  • 61. Think About Travelling Abroad • Travelling Abroad • What happens if • What restrictions they get stopped will be in place? • What will travel at a border? be? • Will there be • How will you eat when you travel? • Who will travel? borders? • Why? • Who will be • How fast or slow will the means of regulating travel? travel be? • By what medium? • Will there be • ... • For how long? travel retail? • How will people • What luggage if • ... cross borders? any? • ... • What will the • Who will people • ... vehicle look like? travel with?Rakhi Rajani :: LCC Futures Module :: 5 Day Intensive :: February 2012
  • 62. Think About • Home Entertainment Home Entertainment • Is it more digital • What is or analogue? • How are people social? How does entertainment? • What devices if home entertainment any? • What is home converge with the entertainment? • Is it family physical world outside of the entertainment or • What do people individual? home? do in their homes? • How do • ... • What is the entertainment relationship between mediums • ... converge? entertainment and work? • ... • What happens • What modes of when you are not • ... being entertained? entertainment exist?Rakhi Rajani :: LCC Futures Module :: 5 Day Intensive :: February 2012
  • 63. Think About Personal Comms • Personal Communications • What mediums? • How will everyone from kids to adults • What is • How will identify communicate? communicating people? • If we are robots, • What is personal • Will we need to what will we need to convey? communication? identify people? • Who will need to • How will • ... communicate? communications differ locally or • ... • What will we globally? communicate • ... about? • Will it be in the form of voice, • ... • How often will we visuals, gestures, need to communicate? something else? • ...Rakhi Rajani :: LCC Futures Module :: 5 Day Intensive :: February 2012
  • 64. Think About University Education • University • What will it cost? Education • Who will teach? • What materials • What is the point will people use? of education? • How will they teach? • What degree’s will • Who will be universities offer? educated? • What will people learn? • Will they be local • Why will people or global? be educated? • Where will people go? • ... • How long will university • What will a • ... education last? campus look like? • ... • What will you • What will a ‘earn’ from lecture/seminar/ • ... university studio room look education? like?Rakhi Rajani :: LCC Futures Module :: 5 Day Intensive :: February 2012
  • 65. Day 4 Presenting your ideas 1000 - 1030 Presenting Ideas 1030 - 1300 Group Work 1300 - 1400 Lunch Progress 1400 - 1430 Presentations 1430 - 1600 Group WorkRakhi Rajani :: LCC Futures Module :: 5 Day Intensive :: February 2012
  • 66. Day 5 Presentations • How did you get to your scenario? • Research • Drivers • Persona’s in 2012/2032 • Story world in 2012/2032 • Scenario of the future • The repercussions of your future • What will happen as a result?Rakhi Rajani :: LCC Futures Module :: 5 Day Intensive :: February 2012
  • 67. Presenting your ideas • Tell a story about your story! • Present items in a logical manner • We should be able to see the progression and it should make sense • The step before should influence the step afterRakhi Rajani :: LCC Futures Module :: 5 Day Intensive :: February 2012
  • 68. Steve Jobs Presentations
  • 69. Rakhi Rajani :: LCC Futures Module :: 5 Day Intensive :: February 2012
  • 70. Day 5 Final presentations & Feedback All groups MUST be present at all presentations Group 1 1100 - 1200 Travelling Abroad Group 2 1200 - 1300 Home Entertainment 1300 - 1400 Lunch Group 3 1400 - 1500 Personal Comms Group 4 1500 - 1600 University EducationRakhi Rajani :: LCC Futures Module :: 5 Day Intensive :: February 2012
  • 71. LCC Futures Course Brief & Resources Rakhi Rajani rakhi@humaneditions.com5 Day IntensiveDay 1 - Predicting the future?Day 2 - Creating Worlds & Persona’s + Projecting these into the futureDay 3 - Developing a scenarioDay 4 - Presenting your ideasDay 5 - Final presentations & Feedback Assignment Develop a future scenario for 2032. What is the future of:Group 1 - Travelling abroadGroup 2 - Home entertainment Group 3 - Personal communication Group 4 - University educationDeliverables1. Hand in your future scenario as a hard copy and on CD. This should include referenced research, statistics, quotes etc2. 30 min GROUP presentation on Day 53. Each INDIVIDUAL person to hand in 500 words on the relevance (including advantages and pitfalls) of Futures/ Forecasting in Design on Day 5 
  • 72. Day 1 Predicting the Future?1030 - 1145 : Lecture on Forecasting, Trends & STEEP Analysis 1145 - 1200: Break1200 - 1300: Assignment Briefing1300 - 1400: Lunch1400 - 1600: Group WorkDay 2 Creating Worlds & Persona’s + Projecting these into the future1000 - 1130 : Lecture on Persona & World Development1130 - 1145 : Break1145 - 1300 : Progress Presentations1300 - 1400 : Lunch1400 - 1600 : WorkshopDay 3 Developing a scenario1000 - 1130 : Lecture on Scenarios1130 - 1145 : Break1145 - 1300 : Progress1300 - 1400 : Lunch1400 - 1600 : WorkshopDay 4 Presenting your ideas1000 - 1030 : Lecture on Presenting Ideas1030 - 1300 : Group Work1300 - 1400 : Lunch1400 - 1430 : Progress Presentations1430 - 1600 : Group WorkDay 5 Final presentations & FeedbackAll groups MUST be present at all presentations1100 - 1200 : Group 1 Travelling Abroad1200 - 1300 : Group 2 Home Entertainment1300 - 1400 : Lunch1400 - 1500 : Group 3 Personal Comms1500 - 1600 : Group 4 University Education
  • 73. ResourcesVIDEO2012 Top 10 Forecasts, World Future Societyhttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IEINbXDG9h4Networked Society On the Brinkhttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R7cuatm_bqwFuture Technology: Arthur C Clarke Predicting the future in 1964http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FxYgdX2PxyQLife in 2050http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y87n7xBAOik&feature=relatedFuture in 2050http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0jU9KzsU0zo&feature=relatedMicrosoft 2020 technology future visionhttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vxPn4Eo0PRk&feature=relatedWorld in 2021http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z4bJEqoCAuI&feature=relatedLife In The Future from 2050 to year 5000 HQhttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C9YV46PZ548&feature=related650 Million Years in under 2 minuteshttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NYbTNFN3NBo&feature=relatedDubai 1991-2005http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XhqsJYvvykA&feature=relatedMinority Report Trailerhttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=q2bmImPNKbMARTICLESHow to predict the futurehttp://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-15483792Predicting The Futurehttp://www.ecotopia.com/webpress/futures.htmThe computer that predicts the futurehttp://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2011/sep/11/charliue-brooker-computer-predicts-futureHow to Predict the Future of Technologyhttp://www.scientificamerican.com/article.cfm?id=the-future-is-for-foolsPredicting the future: its becoming a science
  • 74. http://www.cosmosmagazine.com/node/672Some Patterns in World History and How they can be Used to Predict the Futurehttp://www.worldhistorysite.com/prediction.htmlCan science fiction still predict the future?http://www.newscientist.com/blogs/culturelab/2011/05/can-science-fiction-still-predict-the-future.htmlThe news forecast: Can you predict the future by mining millions of web pages for data?http://www.wired.co.uk/magazine/archive/2011/12/features/the-news-forecast?page=allFuture of Facebook - STEEP Analysishttp://ericaglasier.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/10/1-FutureOfFacebook.jpgCorporate Foresight: Its Three Roles in Enhancing the Innovation Capacity of a Firmhttp://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=1618523BOOKSPredicting the future: an introduction to the theory of forecastinghttp://books.google.co.uk/books/about/Predicting_the_future.html?id=B2jpp4tA7MsCForesight: The Art and Science of Anticipating the Futurehttp://www.amazon.co.uk/Foresight-Art-Science-Anticipating-Future/dp/0415398150/ref=sr_1_2?s=books&ie=UTF8&qid=1328988373&sr=1-2Never In A Million Years: A History of Hopeless Predictionshttp://www.amazon.co.uk/Never-Million-Years-Hopeless-Predictions/dp/1409140229/ref=sr_1_5?s=books&ie=UTF8&qid=1328988398&sr=1-5Futurewise: Six Faces of Global Change. Profile Books.http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/FuturewiseThe Next 100 Years: A Forecast for the 21st Centuryhttp://www.amazon.co.uk/Next-100-Years-Forecast-Century/dp/038551705XFuture Files: A Brief History of the Next 50 Yearshttp://www.amazon.co.uk/Future-Files-Brief-History-Years/dp/1857885341/ref=pd_sim_b_2The End Game: The End of the Debt SuperCycle and How It Changes Everythinghttp://www.amazon.co.uk/End-Game-SuperCycle-Changes-Everything/dp/1118004574/ref=pd_sim_b_5 LCC - Futures Unit Rakhi Rajani rakhi@humaneditions.com