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1. 13 OCT – 17 OCT 2014
W E E K L Y
R
E
P
O
R
T
Blow by Blow
On
Bullions,
Base metals,
Energy…
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2. MAJOR EVENTS
Gold futures fell from a two-week high as signs of an improving U.S. economy boosted the dollar, cutting the metal’s appeal as an alternative investment. A separate report this week showed job openings in August at the highest in 13 years. Bullion still posted a weekly advance amid growth concerns in China and Europe. Gold fell 8.4 percent last quarter as signs of a quickening U.S. recovery helped push the dollar to its biggest gain in six years. The metal rallied the most in two months yesterday after Federal Reserve policy makers said a global economic slowdown poses potential risks to the U.S., sparking speculation that the central bank will keep interest rates lower for a longer period. Gold futures for December delivery fell 0.3 percent to settle at $1,221.70 an ounce at 1:51 p.m. on the Comex in New York. Prices reached $1,234 yesterday, the highest since Sept. 23, on the way to the first weekly gain since August. The commodity slid to $1,183.30 on Oct. 6, the lowest since Dec. 31. Money managers have cut their net-long position, or bets on higher prices, to the lowest this year, U.S. government data show. Holdings in gold-backed exchange-traded products are at a five-year low. Silver futures for December delivery lost 0.7 percent to $17.303 an ounce on the Comex. The metal capped its first weekly gain in six weeks.
On the New York Mercantile Exchange, platinum futures for delivery in January declined 1.3 percent to $1,261.60 an ounce, snapping four straight gains. Palladium futures for December delivery fell 1.9 percent to $785.05 an ounce, the first decline this week.
West Texas Intermediate crude pared the biggest weekly drop since January amid signs of a global glut. Brent, the benchmark for more than half the world’s oil, gained after reaching a four-year low in intraday trading. WTI closed yesterday more than 20 percent below its June peak, a common definition of a bear market. Brent is down 22 percent from the June high. Both crudes settled higher for the first time in four days after falling more than 2 percent during trading today.
The world’s two most-traded crude futures are collapsing because demand growth is slowing at a time when output is expanding from countries including the U.S. and Russia, the largest suppliers outside OPEC. The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries increased oil production by the most in almost three years last month as Libyan output surged. The fundamentals are weak but don’t justify this. It’s concern about OPEC that’s got the market rattled.”WTI for November delivery rose 5 cents to settle at $85.82 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Futures fell 4.4 percent this week after dropping 4.1 percent last week. The contract touched $83.59 today, the lowest intraday price since July 3, 2012.
WTI, Brent Post Weekly Declines as Global Supplies Rise.
Copper Falls to One-Week Low as Economies Signal Sagging Demand.
Copper fell to a one-week low in London as economic signals in Europe and China indicated metal demand will ebb. There are signs the euro area’s recovery is losing momentum, European Central Bank President Mario Draghi said yesterday. In August, exports from Germany slumped the most since 2009, data showed yesterday. China’s main government-backed research group forecast a 7 percent expansion next year, down from a projected 7.3 percent growth in 2014. Ongoing concerns about the global economic outlook are going to be a drag on the industrial metals like copper. Copper for delivery in three months declined 0.9 percent to settle at $6,645 a metric ton ($3.01 a pound) on the London Metal Exchange. Earlier, the price touched $6,613, the lowest since Oct. 2.
The metal capped its first weekly gain since Aug. 22 after Federal Reserve policy makers said that U.S. growth “might be slower than they expected if foreign economic growth came in weaker than anticipated,” stoking speculation that the central bank won’t raise interest rates anytime soon. China is the world’s largest consumer, followed by the U.S. and Germany, which has largest economy in the euro area. Aluminum, nickel, zinc and lead fell in London, while tin was unchanged.
Gold Declines From Two-Week High as Dollar Advances.

3. E C O N O M I C C A L E N D E R DATE & TIME DESCRIPTION FORECAST PREVIOUS
Oct 13 All Day
Bank Holiday
Oct 14 5:00pm
NFIB Small Business Index
97.2
96.1
Oct 15 6:00pm
Core Retail Sales m/m
0.2%
0.3%
6:00pm
PPI m/m
0.1%
0.0%
6:00pm
Retail Sales m/m
-0.1%
0.6%
6:00pm
Core PPI m/m
0.1%
0.1%
6:00pm
Empire State Manufacturing Index
20.3
27.5
7:30pm
Business Inventories m/m
0.4%
0.4%
11:30pm
Beige Book
Oct 16 5:30pm
FOMC Member Plosser Speaks
6:00pm
Unemployment Claims
286K
287K
6:45pm
Capacity Utilization Rate
79.0%
78.8%
6:45pm
Industrial Production m/m
0.4%
-0.1%
7:30pm
Philly Fed Manufacturing Index
19.9
22.5
7:30pm
FOMC Member Kocherlakota Speaks
7:30pm
NAHB Housing Market Index
59
59
8:00pm
Natural Gas Storage
8:30pm
Crude Oil Inventories
Oct 17 1:30am
TIC Long-Term Purchases
23.3B
-18.6B
6:00pm
Building Permits
1.04M
1.00M
6:00pm
Fed Chair Yellen Speaks
6:00pm
Housing Starts
1.02M
0.96M
7:25pm
Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment
84.3
84.6
7:25pm
Prelim UoM Inflation Expectations
3.0%

4. S1 S2 S3 R1 R2 R3
26470 26000 25485 27220 27650 28085
S1 S2 S3 R1 R2 R3
37940 37000 36000 39400 40500 41550
T E C H N I C A L V I E W
MCX GOLD showed correction in whole
week but not able to maintains above
27100 and closed below the resistance
level of 23.6% retracement. Now, if it
able to sustain below 26500 then next
vital support is seen near psychological
level of 26000. Contrary if it maintains
above 27100 then breakout of
downward channel pattern is expected
and may find next resistance around
27500.
S T R A T E G Y
Better strategy in MCX GOLD is to buy
above 27250 for the targets of 27750
with stop loss of 26700.
PIVOT TABLE
G O L D
PIVOT TABLE
S I L V E R
T E C H N I C A L V I E W
MCX SILVER on daily charts showed
sideways movement and traded below
to its important support level i.e.
38500. Now, if it sustain below 38000
then next support is seen in the range
of 37000-36000. On higher side 39500
is act as important resistance level for
it above which it may test the
psychological level of 40000.
S T R A T E G Y
Better strategy in MCX SILVER at this
point of time is to sell below 37900
targets of 36000, with stop loss of 39500.

5. C R U D E O I L
C O P P E R
S1 S2 S3 R1 R2 R3
5130 4960 4775 5355 5530 5715
S1 S2 S3 R1 R2 R3
410 404.20 399.65 417 422.30 428
T E C H N I C A L V I E W
MCX Copper last week showed
sideways to bearish movement,
closed below 50% retracement level
i.e. 417 but not able to sustain below
61.8% retracement. Now, if it breaks
the support level of 408 then next
support level is seen around 400. On
higher side if it maintains above 417
then next resistance is seen in the
range of 422-425.
S T R A T E G Y
Better strategy in MCX CRUDEOIL is to
sell on highs for the targets of 5000, with
stop loss of 5550.
PIVOT TABLE
T E C H N I C A L V I E W
MCX Crude oil last week showed free
fall after giving breakout of its
important support level i.e. 5525 and
found support around 5100. Now, if it
sustain in the range of 5200-5100 in
upcoming sessions then it may test the
next psychological support level of
5000. On other hand some correction
may take it towards the resistance
level of 5500.
S T R A T E G Y
Better strategy in MCX COPPER is to sell
below 411, with stop loss of 423 for the
targets of 405-400.
PIVOT TABLE

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