I Phone Dev Summit Lefty 03 07 08
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I Phone Dev Summit Lefty 03 07 08 Presentation Transcript

  • 1. Open Up Your World How Open Is “Open”? David “Lefty” Schlesinger Director, Open Source Technologies ACCESS CO., LTD. iPhone Developers’ Summit p New York, NY March 20, 2008
  • 2. Act I: The Battlefield and the Battle 2 Copyright © 2008, ACCESS Systems Americas All rights reserved.
  • 3. “Smart Phone” Shipments Are Growing Total Smart Phone Shipments (000 units) 300,000 300 000 250,000 200,000 150,000 150 000 100,000 50,000 0 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Source: In-Stat, 2006 3 Copyright © 2008, ACCESS Systems Americas All rights reserved.
  • 4. Mobile Growth is Outpacing the Desktop Smart Phone v. PC Shipments (000 units) 300,000 250,000 200,000 00,000 150,000 100,000 50,000 0 2005 2007 2010 Smartphone Shipments Source: In-Stat, 2006; eTForecasts, 2006; ACCESS internal estimates 4 Copyright © 2008, ACCESS Systems Americas All rights reserved.
  • 5. Linux Will Take an Increasing Share Linux Smart Phone Market Share 60% 50% % 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Source: Canalys, 2006 5 Copyright © 2008, ACCESS Systems Americas All rights reserved.
  • 6. An Unprecedented Market for New Software Linux Smart Phone Shipments (000 Units) 140000 120000 100000 80000 60000 40000 20000 0 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Source: In-Stat, 2006 6 Copyright © 2008, ACCESS Systems Americas All rights reserved.
  • 7. Your Cell Phone Is Not Your Desktop System. Apple Mac Pro Nokia N95 •Gigahertz •Megahertz •Gigabytes •Megabytes •30 inches •3 inches •120 keys •12 keys •Moore’s Law is still your friend! •(Other laws of physics may not be.) 7 Copyright © 2008, ACCESS Systems Americas All rights reserved.
  • 8. It’s Sorta the One You Used to Have, Though… PowerMac G3 Tower Nokia N95 •350 MHz •330 MHz •64MB RAM 64MB •128MB RAM 128MB •6GB Disk •8GB “Disk” •Ethernet •WiFi (10 Mbps) (54 Mpbs) •$2,500 •$2 500 •Bluetooth •(monitor not included) •GPS •GSM/WCDMA •$625 •(includes monitor!) …but at a quarter of the cost! 8 Copyright © 2008, ACCESS Systems Americas All rights reserved.
  • 9. Increasingly Seamless and Ubiquitous Connectivityy We can increasingly connect with anyone from wherever we are… …and we can connect with them in more ways than ever b f before… 9 Copyright © 2008, ACCESS Systems Americas All rights reserved.
  • 10. Increasingly Seamless and Ubiquitous Connectivityy More d t is b M data i becomingly i l accessible to us on demand… …and more kinds of data… data …coming from more and more sources… 10 Copyright © 2008, ACCESS Systems Americas All rights reserved.
  • 11. Increasingly Seamless and Ubiquitous Connectivityy When it doesn’t matter where you are, you can be where you please more… Location and time will increasingly serve our needs, rather than our serving theirs… 11 Copyright © 2008, ACCESS Systems Americas All rights reserved.
  • 12. Increasingly Seamless and Ubiquitous Connectivityy (You are Here.) Maybe. 12 Copyright © 2008, ACCESS Systems Americas All rights reserved.
  • 13. The Server in My Pocket I am a self-reconfiguring cloud of devices and data… I interact with a number of other clouds of devices and data My “identity” is distributed − M social “identity” on my phone, my server, F My i l “id tit ” h FaceBook, Li k dI B k LinkedIn… − My culinary “identity” on Yelp… − My travel “identity” on Dopplr, SideStep, United… − My musical “identity” on Last fm Pandora iLike identity Last.fm, Pandora, iLike… Add in location… What happens when everything can talk to everything? − Will things I want find me? 13 Copyright © 2008, ACCESS Systems Americas All rights reserved.
  • 14. So, What’s “Open” Mean, Anyway? “Free” as in “free-for-all” The many faces of “open” open − Is it “open source”? − Are the platform sources available under an OSI-approved license? li ? − Is it developed in an “open process”? − Can developers directly participate in platform development? − Is it an “open development environment”? − Can applications developers work unrestrictedly, using the tools and languages of their choice? − Does it have “open APIs” or use “open protocols”? − Is there a notification and review process before APIs are changed? Are file formats and protocols fully documents? 14 Copyright © 2008, ACCESS Systems Americas All rights reserved.
  • 15. Act II: The Players 15 Copyright © 2008, ACCESS Systems Americas All rights reserved.
  • 16. The Harsh Realities Nokia owns 40% of the worldwide market − Nokia phones are supported and marketed by a broad range of p pp y g carriers in every geography − Nokia is increasingly moving into direct sales and services LiMo, collectively, arguably represents another 30-40% y g y p of the worldwide market − Support from Samsung, Motorola and other major phone vendors − Support from multiple major carriers in multiple geographies iPhone is increasingly unlikely to hit its sales targets − 0.5% of the worldwide market? − One carrier p g g p y, in a limited number of g g p O per geography, geographies Both Apple and Nokia face the pressure of being proprietary 16 Copyright © 2008, ACCESS Systems Americas All rights reserved.
  • 17. Apple and the iPhone The iPhone has raised the bar significantly on user interface and user experience p − This is what Apple excels at. Imitation (and cooption) is the sincerest form of competition. titi − Responding to this is what Apple does poorly. “You can tell the pioneers by the arrows in their backs.” p y − Apple will need to work very hard to stay ahead; but can they get ahead in sales and maintain the margins they need? Will the “iTunes App Store” be an enabler or a stumbling block? 17 Copyright © 2008, ACCESS Systems Americas All rights reserved.
  • 18. The Open Handset Alliance and Android The Million-Line Code Dump − “We’re open source just not now ” We re source, now. “Standard”, but not − “You can trust us, we’re in advertising.” g Where’s the business model? − Who’s giving away what? − “Free” as in “a dollar”…? − The ad-based phone The Android’s Dilemma Android s − “It’s like nothing you’ve ever seen before!” − How to be “open source” and still wind up being proprietary 18 Copyright © 2008, ACCESS Systems Americas All rights reserved.
  • 19. Mainstream “Mobile Linux” The ACCESS Linux Platform and efforts like the LiMo Foundation platform build on open source they source, don’t replace it. − “Open(er) code for open(er) phones.” − Your regular Linux applications can still work! ALP and LiMo Foundation middleware implement features not in current Linux-based systems Linux based − Telephony − Messaging − Device management − etc. 19 Copyright © 2008, ACCESS Systems Americas All rights reserved.
  • 20. The Other Participants, Minor and Major Behind the Scenes: The GNOME Mobile gang − Moblin org Moblin.org − Ubuntu Mobile − OpenMoko, G(PE)2, others… The Linux Foundation and the Linux Phone Standards Forum − (PS: They don’t make phones ) phones.) Microsoft and Windows Mobile − “Look at everything we ve done for desktop Look we’ve systems!” Nokia, the 800-pound gorilla − Now, with added Trolltech? ith dd d llt h? 20 Copyright © 2008, ACCESS Systems Americas All rights reserved.
  • 21. Act III: The Approaches: Who’s “Open”? 21 Copyright © 2008, ACCESS Systems Americas All rights reserved.
  • 22. iPhone Open Source? No. − “OS X Embedded + Cocoa Touch” Open Platform Development Process? No. Open Development Environment? In part. − D Development iis li it d t Objective C T l t limited to Obj ti C. Two execution environments. Open APIs, Formats and Protocols? Only in a p y limited context. Open for business? In June, for $99 plus 30% of revenues. revenues And Apple is your only distributor distributor. 22 Copyright © 2008, ACCESS Systems Americas All rights reserved.
  • 23. Android Open Source? Not yet. − Linux + Dalvik VM + “Surface Manager” + Android middleware − Android will be released when phones ship (2009?) Open Platform Development Process? No. p p − Even when Android is released, its architecture resembles nothing ever seen before Open Development Environment? Not really really. − Java-only, object-oriented model. Single execution environment. O API F t Open APIs, Formats and Protocols? S f dP t l ? So far, only in l i part. − Android is still undergoing significant change g g g g Open for business? No. 23 Copyright © 2008, ACCESS Systems Americas All rights reserved.
  • 24. Mainstream Mobile Linux Open Source? Yes, other than proprietary middleware. middleware − Linux + GTK, Gstreamer, BlueZ, etc. Open Platform Development Process? Yes, other than proprietary middleware. − LiMo benefits from the community’s work, the community will benefit from LiMo’s support and their LiMo s work on common software Open Development Environment? Yes. − C, C++, Java, web widgets, etc. Multiple execution environments. Open APIs and Protocols? Yes. Open for business? Increasingly. 24 Copyright © 2008, ACCESS Systems Americas All rights reserved.
  • 25. A Typical Linux-based System, Just on a Phone 25 Copyright © 2008, ACCESS Systems Americas All rights reserved.
  • 26. An Extremely Atypical Linux-based System 26 Copyright © 2008, ACCESS Systems Americas All rights reserved.
  • 27. Other Efforts Open Source? − Windows Mobile: No. − Symbian: No. Open Platform Development Process? − Windows Mobile: No. − Symbian: No. Open Development Environment? − Windows Mobile: Mostly Mostly. − Symbian: Mostly. Open APIs and Protocols? − Windo s Mobile: Not in the past, but that’s changing, maybe. Windows past b t changing ma be − Symbian: Mostly. 27 Copyright © 2008, ACCESS Systems Americas All rights reserved.
  • 28. Device Security and Why It Matters iPhone: “Security” via gluing the case shut. − (Proven not to work well ) well.) Android: “Security” via making it the user’s problem. − (“I see trouble ahead.”) Mainstream Mobile Linux: Security by using the facilities of the underlying operating system in a way which addresses the problem space − (PS: This is a better approach.) − Example: Hiker Project Policy-based Security (from the ACCESS Linux Platform) 28 Copyright © 2008, ACCESS Systems Americas All rights reserved.
  • 29. Openness and Third-Party Ecosystems Third-party development in an open environment drives platform improvements (and platform sales), Platform sales (and platform improvements) drive more third-party development, in a benevolent circle. 29 Copyright © 2008, ACCESS Systems Americas All rights reserved.
  • 30. Fragmentation, and How to Avoid It Standards are a piece, but standards alone aren’t enough g − Stand-alone standards become “unfunded mandates” − Standards based on existing practice can become “backward- looking” too easily For a reference implementation to evolve to a standard, it has to be relevant and realistic − LiMo defines 79 telephony-related APIs; Android defines 12. Which p y seem more likely to fragment…? Evolving standards + reference implementations + strong community = an overall reduction in g y fragmentation 30 Copyright © 2008, ACCESS Systems Americas All rights reserved.
  • 31. Why Community Matters Reference implementations need some sort of community − Who maintains things? − Who improves things? g − Who finds bugs? Who fixes ‘em? “Berkeley documentation”: The code is the standard: you h t d d have t work with the people to k ith th l who own the code… 31 Copyright © 2008, ACCESS Systems Americas All rights reserved.
  • 32. Act IV: The Winners 32 Copyright © 2008, ACCESS Systems Americas All rights reserved.
  • 33. “Hey, you! Become a Community!” Limiting what people can do, and the ways in which they can do it limits the possibilities for your it, ecosystem There is not a “the open source community”. − There’s a kernel community; there’s a GTK+ community; there’s a Gstreamer community; there’s a BlueZ community; there’s a Java community… y y “Gifting” the communities with all of your excellent, completely out-of-left-field ideas, tossed over the wall all at once in a big wad in the wad, expectation that they’ve been waiting around to maintain them on your behalf, is not a good idea. 33 Copyright © 2008, ACCESS Systems Americas All rights reserved.
  • 34. The Taoist Theory of Management “Find a good parade, and get in front of it.” Open source development has proven to be one of the best parades around − Shared development cost − Shared quality burden − Innovation from unexpected directions 34 Copyright © 2008, ACCESS Systems Americas All rights reserved.
  • 35. What the Future Could Hold 25% off miso ramen in Istanbul! 35 Copyright © 2008, ACCESS Systems Americas All rights reserved.
  • 36. Thank you! Copyright © 2008, ACCESS Systems Americas All rights reserved.