Epgp (one year) 2009-10_cf_ assignment_#2_6jan10

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Epgp (one year) 2009-10_cf_ assignment_#2_6jan10

  1. 1. Corporate Finance Assignment #2 – Ocean Carriers EPGP 2009-10 - Term III- Individual Submission 6-Jan-2009 Instructor: Prof. A. Kanagaraj Submitted by: Rajendra Inani - #27 CF –Individual Assignment#2 – Ocean Carriers Page |1
  2. 2. Table of Contents 2 1 Ocean Carriers - Recommendation....................................................................................................3 2 Reasons behind our recommendation...............................................................................................3 3 The calculations .................................................................................................................................3 3.1 NPV with 25 years of operation.........................................................................................................5 3.2 NPV with 15 years of operation.........................................................................................................7 4 Assignment Questions........................................................................................................................8 4.1 Do you expect daily spot hire rates to increase or decrease next year?............................................8 4.2 What factors derive average daily hire rates?...................................................................................8 4.3 How would you characterize the LT prospects of the capesize dry bulk industry?............................8 4.4 Should Ms Linn purchase the $39M capesize?..................................................................................8 4.5 What do you think of the company's policy of not operating ships over 15 years old?.....................9 CF –Individual Assignment#1 Page |2
  3. 3. 1 Ocean Carriers - Recommendation The project is recommended for rejection of the proposal due to company policy of not operating vessels older than 15 years. As explained in the later part of document, this project is not viable within 15 years of vessel’s life. The decision to move forward with this project is dependent on our company’s confidence in the long term market demand for capsizes. If Australian and Indian ore exports begin in 2003 as projected and demand for capsizes is increased, this project will return a positive NPV over the 25 year life of the ship. As the following data shows, the company policy to not operate vessels over 15 years may not necessarily produce maximum profits. Looking forward I would also suggest that the company reevaluate this policy, and consider revamping it for future projects such as this. 2 Reasons behind our recommendation Assuming the existence of sufficient long term demand and a full 25-year operating life of the vessel, the end result would prove profitable for the company. However, if the life of the ship is reduced to 15 years pursuant to company policy, and subsequently sold for scrap, the project would result in a loss for the company even when the scrap value is included. 3 The calculations We take into account total expected revues over the life of the ship were calculated using the given yearly operating days and hire rate data. Then, expected yearly operating costs were subtracted from revenues to determine yearly cash flows from operations. To determine cash flows from investment activities, the initial purchase of the carrier, working capital investment as well as capital expenditures had to be taken into consideration. The vessel was purchased over a three-year time period, and delivered at the end of 2002. At that time, a $500,000 investment in working capital was injected, which was expected to grow with inflation over the life of the ship. Yearly investment cash flows were determined using these figures. Providing a 9% discount rate, the total net present value (NPV) of the yearly cash flow was determined for both a 25-year fully depreciated operating lifetime, as well as a 15-year operating lifetime with a $5 million scrap value. It was determined that for this project to be profitable, the ship would have to remain in operations for at least 22 years before it returned a positive NPV figure. If operated for the full 25 years, total NPV of $368,557 is forecasted. However, if the ship is operated for 15 years and then scrapped, a negative NPV of -$1,252,916 would result. CF –Individual Assignment#2 – Ocean Carriers Page |3
  4. 4. CF –Individual Assignment#2 – Ocean Carriers Page |4
  5. 5. 3.1 NPV with 25 years of operation Calendar Expected Annual Exected Annual Cash flow from Capital Change in Net Cash Flow from PV of Yearly cash PV of Rolling Cash Year Revenue Op. Costs Operations Cost of Equipment Expenditures Working Capital Investment Total Cash Flow flow Flow 2000 0 (3,900,000) 0 (3,900,000) (3,900,000) (3,900,000) (3,900,000) 2001 0 (3,900,000) 0 (3,900,000) (3,900,000) (3,577,982) (7,477,982) 2002 0 (31,200,000) 0 500,000 (31,700,000) (31,700,000) (26,681,256) (34,159,237) 2003 7,140,000 1,460,000 5,680,000 0 15,000 (15,000) 5,665,000 4,374,419 (29,784,818) 2004 7,211,400 1,518,400 5,693,000 0 15,450 (15,450) 5,677,550 4,022,120 (25,762,698) 2005 7,282,800 1,579,136 5,703,664 0 15,914 (15,914) 5,687,751 3,696,648 (22,066,051) 2006 6,680,898 1,642,301 5,038,597 0 16,391 (16,391) 5,022,206 2,994,577 (19,071,474) 2007 6,170,031 1,707,993 4,462,038 (300,000) 16,883 (16,883) 4,145,155 2,267,542 (16,803,932) 2008 6,170,793 1,776,313 4,394,480 0 17,389 (17,389) 4,377,091 2,196,714 (14,607,218) 2009 6,241,746 1,847,366 4,394,380 0 17,911 (17,911) 4,376,469 2,015,048 (12,592,170) 2010 6,313,758 1,921,260 4,392,498 0 18,448 (18,448) 4,374,049 1,847,646 (10,744,524) 2011 6,386,476 1,998,111 4,388,365 0 19,002 (19,002) 4,369,364 1,693,272 (9,051,252) 2012 6,152,084 2,078,035 4,074,049 (350,000) 19,572 (19,572) 3,704,477 1,317,070 (7,734,182) 2013 6,152,172 2,161,157 3,991,015 0 20,159 (20,159) 3,970,857 1,295,209 (6,438,973) 2014 6,223,019 2,247,603 3,975,416 0 20,764 (20,764) 3,954,653 1,183,416 (5,255,557) 2015 6,294,564 2,337,507 3,957,057 0 21,386 (21,386) 3,935,671 1,080,491 (4,175,066) 2016 6,366,807 2,431,007 3,935,800 0 22,028 (22,028) 3,913,772 985,761 (3,189,305) 2017 5,151,938 2,528,248 2,623,690 (750,000) 22,689 (22,689) 1,851,002 427,717 (2,761,589) 2018 5,211,268 2,629,378 2,581,890 0 23,370 (23,370) 2,558,521 542,390 (2,219,198) 2019 5,271,296 2,734,553 2,536,743 0 24,071 (24,071) 2,512,673 488,689 (1,730,509) 2020 5,332,022 2,843,935 2,488,087 0 24,793 (24,793) 2,463,295 439,528 (1,290,981) 2021 5,393,446 2,957,692 2,435,754 0 25,536 (25,536) 2,410,217 394,548 (896,433) 2022 5,114,246 3,076,000 2,038,246 (850,000) 26,303 (26,303) 1,161,944 174,503 (721,931) 2023 5,173,227 3,199,040 1,974,187 0 27,092 (27,092) 1,947,096 268,274 (453,657) 2024 5,232,557 3,327,001 1,905,556 0 27,904 (27,904) 1,877,651 237,344 (216,313) 2025 5,292,934 3,460,081 1,832,853 0 28,742 (28,742) 1,804,111 209,219 (7,094) 2026 5,354,009 3,598,485 1,755,524 0 29,604 (29,604) 1,725,921 183,625 176,531 2027 4,693,352 3,742,424 950,928 0 1,016,397 1,016,397 1,967,325 192,026 368,557 Total 25 year NPV 368,557 CF –Individual Assignment#2 – Ocean Carriers Page |5
  6. 6. CF –Individual Assignment#2 – Ocean Carriers Page |6
  7. 7. 3.2 NPV with 15 years of operation Calendar Expected Annual Exected Annual Cash flow from Capital Capital Cash Flow from PV of Yearly cash PV of Rolling Cash Year Revenue Op. Costs Operatinos Cost of Equipment Expenditures Investment Salvage Value Investment Total Cash Flow flow Flow 2000 0 (3,900,000) 0 (3,900,000) (3,900,000) (3,900,000) (3,900,000) 2001 0 (3,900,000) 0 (3,900,000) (3,900,000) (3,577,982) (7,477,982) 2002 0 (31,200,000) 0 500,000 (31,700,000) (31,700,000) (26,681,256) (34,159,237) 2003 7,140,000 1,460,000 5,680,000 0 15,000 (15,000) 5,665,000 4,374,419 (29,784,818) 2004 7,211,400 1,518,400 5,693,000 0 15,450 (15,450) 5,677,550 4,022,120 (25,762,698) 2005 7,282,800 1,579,136 5,703,664 0 15,914 (15,914) 5,687,751 3,696,648 (22,066,051) 2006 6,680,898 1,642,301 5,038,597 0 16,391 (16,391) 5,022,206 2,994,577 (19,071,474) 2007 6,170,031 1,707,993 4,462,038 (300,000) 16,883 (16,883) 4,145,155 2,267,542 (16,803,932) 2008 6,170,793 1,776,313 4,394,480 0 17,389 (17,389) 4,377,091 2,196,714 (14,607,218) 2009 6,241,746 1,847,366 4,394,380 0 17,911 (17,911) 4,376,469 2,015,048 (12,592,170) 2010 6,313,758 1,921,260 4,392,498 0 18,448 (18,448) 4,374,049 1,847,646 (10,744,524) 2011 6,386,476 1,998,111 4,388,365 0 19,002 (19,002) 4,369,364 1,693,272 (9,051,252) 2012 6,152,084 2,078,035 4,074,049 (350,000) 19,572 (19,572) 3,704,477 1,317,070 (7,734,182) 2013 6,152,172 2,161,157 3,991,015 0 20,159 (20,159) 3,970,857 1,295,209 (6,438,973) 2014 6,223,019 2,247,603 3,975,416 0 20,764 (20,764) 3,954,653 1,183,416 (5,255,557) 2015 6,294,564 2,337,507 3,957,057 0 21,386 (21,386) 3,935,671 1,080,491 (4,175,066) 2016 6,366,807 2,431,007 3,935,800 0 22,028 (22,028) 3,913,772 985,761 (3,189,305) 2017 5,151,938 2,528,248 2,623,690 0 756,295 5,000,000 756,295 8,379,985 1,936,390 (1,252,916) Total 15 year NPV (1,252,916) CF –Individual Assignment#2 – Ocean Carriers Page |7
  8. 8. 4 Assignment Questions 4.1 Do you expect daily spot hire rates to increase or decrease next year? Exhibit 3 shows order booking and delivery schedule for bulk capsizes for coming years. This is a big number compared to current fleet size as per exhibit 2. Thus, the spot hire rates are likely to drop because of availability of capsizes. 4.2 What factors derive average daily hire rates? Since the daily hire rate is determined by the supply and the demand for such services, we first take a look at the supply of Capesize vessels. Future supply of the capesize vessels is the sum of current vessels, minus the vessels that will be scraped, plus new ships delivered. Exhibit 2 shows the existing capesize carriers in terms of the sum of the loading capacity. 4.3 How would you characterize the LT prospects of the capesize dry bulk industry? Availability of fleet in the market and availability of transports good drives average daily hire rates. The daily hire rates would increase if Australia and India ore export starts in coming years. This would bring big business. In absence of a new business, due to increasing number of fleet and based on order booking, the average daily rates may drop. There are 2 million tons of capesize with the age over 24 years. We can expect that these old vessels would be soon scrapped, which in turn would reduce the supply of the capesize vessels. However, such old vessels were small portion of the total existing vessels. So we would not expect a large reduction in supply due to the scraping of old vessels. Exhibit 3 shows the current order of new capesize vessels delivered in the coming 4 years. As can be seen, there will be a large supply of new capesize vessels in 2001 2002 and 2003. This will increase the supply of capesize vessel in the near future. 4.4 Should Ms Linn purchase the $39M capesize? Answered in first part. CF –Individual Assignment#2 – Ocean Carriers Page |8
  9. 9. 4.5 What do you think of the company's policy of not operating ships over 15 years old? This is a conservative policy of company which saves company from uncertainty. But, due to this policy, it is not able to take advantage of returns on investment in later years of vessels. This policy is not giving favorable outlook for investment. CF –Individual Assignment#2 – Ocean Carriers Page |9

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