Outline   Motivation and Literature   Theoretical Framework   Data   Empirical Strategy   Results   Discussion and Conclus...
Outline    Motivation and Literature   Theoretical Framework   Data   Empirical Strategy   Results   Discussion and Conclu...
Outline   Motivation and Literature   Theoretical Framework   Data   Empirical Strategy   Results   Discussion and Conclus...
Outline   Motivation and Literature   Theoretical Framework   Data   Empirical Strategy   Results   Discussion and Conclus...
Outline      Motivation and Literature   Theoretical Framework   Data   Empirical Strategy   Results   Discussion and Conc...
Outline      Motivation and Literature   Theoretical Framework   Data   Empirical Strategy   Results   Discussion and Conc...
Outline   Motivation and Literature   Theoretical Framework   Data   Empirical Strategy   Results   Discussion and Conclus...
Outline   Motivation and Literature   Theoretical Framework   Data   Empirical Strategy   Results   Discussion and Conclus...
Outline   Motivation and Literature   Theoretical Framework   Data   Empirical Strategy   Results   Discussion and Conclus...
Outline   Motivation and Literature   Theoretical Framework   Data   Empirical Strategy   Results   Discussion and Conclus...
Outline   Motivation and Literature   Theoretical Framework   Data   Empirical Strategy   Results   Discussion and Conclus...
Outline   Motivation and Literature   Theoretical Framework   Data   Empirical Strategy   Results   Discussion and Conclus...
Outline   Motivation and Literature   Theoretical Framework   Data   Empirical Strategy   Results   Discussion and Conclus...
Outline   Motivation and Literature   Theoretical Framework   Data   Empirical Strategy   Results   Discussion and Conclus...
Outline   Motivation and Literature   Theoretical Framework   Data   Empirical Strategy   Results   Discussion and Conclus...
Outline   Motivation and Literature   Theoretical Framework   Data   Empirical Strategy   Results   Discussion and Conclus...
Outline   Motivation and Literature   Theoretical Framework   Data   Empirical Strategy   Results   Discussion and Conclus...
Outline   Motivation and Literature   Theoretical Framework   Data   Empirical Strategy   Results   Discussion and Conclus...
Outline   Motivation and Literature   Theoretical Framework   Data   Empirical Strategy   Results   Discussion and Conclus...
Outline   Motivation and Literature   Theoretical Framework   Data   Empirical Strategy   Results   Discussion and Conclus...
Outline   Motivation and Literature   Theoretical Framework   Data   Empirical Strategy   Results   Discussion and Conclus...
Outline   Motivation and Literature   Theoretical Framework   Data   Empirical Strategy   Results   Discussion and Conclus...
Outline   Motivation and Literature   Theoretical Framework   Data   Empirical Strategy   Results   Discussion and Conclus...
Outline   Motivation and Literature   Theoretical Framework   Data   Empirical Strategy   Results   Discussion and Conclus...
Outline   Motivation and Literature   Theoretical Framework   Data   Empirical Strategy   Results   Discussion and Conclus...
Outline   Motivation and Literature   Theoretical Framework   Data   Empirical Strategy   Results   Discussion and Conclus...
Outline   Motivation and Literature   Theoretical Framework   Data   Empirical Strategy   Results   Discussion and Conclus...
Outline   Motivation and Literature   Theoretical Framework   Data   Empirical Strategy   Results   Discussion and Conclus...
Outline   Motivation and Literature   Theoretical Framework   Data   Empirical Strategy   Results   Discussion and Conclus...
Outline   Motivation and Literature   Theoretical Framework   Data   Empirical Strategy   Results   Discussion and Conclus...
Outline   Motivation and Literature   Theoretical Framework   Data   Empirical Strategy   Results   Discussion and Conclus...
Outline    Motivation and Literature    Theoretical Framework    Data   Empirical Strategy   Results   Discussion and Conc...
Outline   Motivation and Literature   Theoretical Framework   Data   Empirical Strategy   Results   Discussion and Conclus...
Outline   Motivation and Literature   Theoretical Framework   Data   Empirical Strategy   Results   Discussion and Conclus...
Outline   Motivation and Literature   Theoretical Framework   Data   Empirical Strategy   Results   Discussion and Conclus...
Outline   Motivation and Literature   Theoretical Framework   Data   Empirical Strategy   Results   Discussion and Conclus...
Outline   Motivation and Literature   Theoretical Framework   Data   Empirical Strategy   Results   Discussion and Conclus...
Outline   Motivation and Literature   Theoretical Framework   Data   Empirical Strategy   Results   Discussion and Conclus...
Outline   Motivation and Literature   Theoretical Framework   Data   Empirical Strategy   Results   Discussion and Conclus...
Outline   Motivation and Literature   Theoretical Framework   Data   Empirical Strategy   Results   Discussion and Conclus...
Outline   Motivation and Literature   Theoretical Framework   Data   Empirical Strategy   Results   Discussion and Conclus...
Outline   Motivation and Literature   Theoretical Framework   Data   Empirical Strategy   Results   Discussion and Conclus...
Outline   Motivation and Literature   Theoretical Framework   Data   Empirical Strategy   Results   Discussion and Conclus...
Outline   Motivation and Literature   Theoretical Framework   Data   Empirical Strategy   Results   Discussion and Conclus...
Outline   Motivation and Literature   Theoretical Framework   Data   Empirical Strategy   Results   Discussion and Conclus...
Outline   Motivation and Literature   Theoretical Framework   Data   Empirical Strategy   Results   Discussion and Conclus...
Outline   Motivation and Literature   Theoretical Framework   Data   Empirical Strategy   Results   Discussion and Conclus...
Outline   Motivation and Literature   Theoretical Framework   Data   Empirical Strategy   Results   Discussion and Conclus...
Outline   Motivation and Literature   Theoretical Framework   Data   Empirical Strategy   Results   Discussion and Conclus...
Outline   Motivation and Literature   Theoretical Framework   Data   Empirical Strategy   Results   Discussion and Conclus...
Outline   Motivation and Literature   Theoretical Framework   Data   Empirical Strategy   Results   Discussion and Conclus...
Outline   Motivation and Literature   Theoretical Framework   Data   Empirical Strategy   Results   Discussion and Conclus...
Outline   Motivation and Literature   Theoretical Framework   Data   Empirical Strategy   Results   Discussion and Conclus...
Outline   Motivation and Literature   Theoretical Framework   Data   Empirical Strategy   Results   Discussion and Conclus...
Outline   Motivation and Literature   Theoretical Framework   Data   Empirical Strategy   Results   Discussion and Conclus...
Outline   Motivation and Literature   Theoretical Framework   Data   Empirical Strategy   Results   Discussion and Conclus...
Outline   Motivation and Literature   Theoretical Framework   Data   Empirical Strategy   Results   Discussion and Conclus...
Outline   Motivation and Literature   Theoretical Framework   Data   Empirical Strategy   Results   Discussion and Conclus...
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Broadband 1

  1. 1. Outline Motivation and Literature Theoretical Framework Data Empirical Strategy Results Discussion and Conclusion Broadband Internet: An Information Superhighway to Sex Crime? Manudeep Bhuller Tarjei Havnes Edwin Leuven Magne Mogstad October 11, 2011Broadband Internet: An Information Superhighway to Sex Crime?
  2. 2. Outline Motivation and Literature Theoretical Framework Data Empirical Strategy Results Discussion and ConclusionTable of Contents Motivation and Literature Theoretical Framework Data Empirical Strategy Results Discussion and ConclusionBroadband Internet: An Information Superhighway to Sex Crime?
  3. 3. Outline Motivation and Literature Theoretical Framework Data Empirical Strategy Results Discussion and ConclusionMotivationMotivation Political and public concern about the potential adverse effects of internet. In particular, does the internet use trigger sex crime?Broadband Internet: An Information Superhighway to Sex Crime?
  4. 4. Outline Motivation and Literature Theoretical Framework Data Empirical Strategy Results Discussion and ConclusionMotivationMotivation Political and public concern about the potential adverse effects of internet. In particular, does the internet use trigger sex crime? An empirical work which uses plausibly exogenous variation in the internet use to address the issue: a public program introduced by the Norwegian government in the late 1990s provided some spatial and temporal variation in the internet accessBroadband Internet: An Information Superhighway to Sex Crime?
  5. 5. Outline Motivation and Literature Theoretical Framework Data Empirical Strategy Results Discussion and ConclusionLiteratureLiterature Efficiency enhancing effects of internet • Brown and Goolsbee (2002): whether internet makes markets more competitive • Freund and Weinhold (2004), Choi (2003): internet’s effect on bilateral trade and foreign direct investment • Choi and Yi (2005), Choi and Yi (2009): how internet affects inflation and economic growth • Saint-Paul (2009): search engines and economic growth • George (2008), Ward (2007): how internet affects the markets for daily newspapers and local music storesBroadband Internet: An Information Superhighway to Sex Crime?
  6. 6. Outline Motivation and Literature Theoretical Framework Data Empirical Strategy Results Discussion and ConclusionLiteratureLiterature Efficiency enhancing effects of internet • Brown and Goolsbee (2002): whether internet makes markets more competitive • Freund and Weinhold (2004), Choi (2003): internet’s effect on bilateral trade and foreign direct investment • Choi and Yi (2005), Choi and Yi (2009): how internet affects inflation and economic growth • Saint-Paul (2009): search engines and economic growth • George (2008), Ward (2007): how internet affects the markets for daily newspapers and local music stores Internet and sex crime related literature: • Kendall (2007): pornography, rape, and internetBroadband Internet: An Information Superhighway to Sex Crime?
  7. 7. Outline Motivation and Literature Theoretical Framework Data Empirical Strategy Results Discussion and Conclusion Parameters: • N – the population size • λ – the per year rate at which people meet • M = λN – number of matches per year • p = Pr {crime|match} – the probability that a match leads to a sex crime • C = pM – number of committed sex crimes per year (or c = pλ the sex crime rate in per capita terms) • q = Pr {report|crime} – the probability of reporting a crime • c ∗ = qc – the reported sex crime rate • i – the internet user rate (fraction of the population with the broadband internet access) The internet user rate i may influence p, λ or qBroadband Internet: An Information Superhighway to Sex Crime?
  8. 8. Outline Motivation and Literature Theoretical Framework Data Empirical Strategy Results Discussion and ConclusionInternet access and crime propensity The effects of the internet access on the crime propensityBroadband Internet: An Information Superhighway to Sex Crime?
  9. 9. Outline Motivation and Literature Theoretical Framework Data Empirical Strategy Results Discussion and ConclusionInternet access and crime propensity The effects of the internet access on the crime propensity • Probability p depends on the latent risk factor r (∂p/∂r > 0) which in turn may depend on the consumption of pornographyBroadband Internet: An Information Superhighway to Sex Crime?
  10. 10. Outline Motivation and Literature Theoretical Framework Data Empirical Strategy Results Discussion and ConclusionInternet access and crime propensity The effects of the internet access on the crime propensity • Probability p depends on the latent risk factor r (∂p/∂r > 0) which in turn may depend on the consumption of pornography ∂p ∂p ∂r ∂porn • Then = · · ∂i ∂r ∂porn ∂iBroadband Internet: An Information Superhighway to Sex Crime?
  11. 11. Outline Motivation and Literature Theoretical Framework Data Empirical Strategy Results Discussion and ConclusionInternet access and crime propensity The effects of the internet access on the crime propensity • Probability p depends on the latent risk factor r (∂p/∂r > 0) which in turn may depend on the consumption of pornography ∂p ∂p ∂r ∂porn • Then = · · ∂i ∂r ∂porn ∂i Internet decreases both pecuniary and non-pecuniary costs of pornography consumption (⇒ ∂porn/∂i > 0) • Triple-A effect: accessibility, affordability, anonymityBroadband Internet: An Information Superhighway to Sex Crime?
  12. 12. Outline Motivation and Literature Theoretical Framework Data Empirical Strategy Results Discussion and ConclusionInternet access and crime propensity Pornography may trigger sexual aggression, it degrades women or children to objects and affects social and individual norms (⇒ ∂r /∂porn > 0): Zillman (1971), Dworkin (1981), Mackinnon (1995)Broadband Internet: An Information Superhighway to Sex Crime?
  13. 13. Outline Motivation and Literature Theoretical Framework Data Empirical Strategy Results Discussion and ConclusionInternet access and crime propensity Pornography may trigger sexual aggression, it degrades women or children to objects and affects social and individual norms (⇒ ∂r /∂porn > 0): Zillman (1971), Dworkin (1981), Mackinnon (1995) There are potential cathartic effects of pornography consumption which decrease sexual aggression (⇒ ∂r /∂porn < 0)Broadband Internet: An Information Superhighway to Sex Crime?
  14. 14. Outline Motivation and Literature Theoretical Framework Data Empirical Strategy Results Discussion and ConclusionInternet access and crime propensity In psychology much effort was devoted to laboratory experiments which study the effect of pornography consumption on sexual aggression • Some find no effect or a reduction in aggression: Zillman and Bryant (1984) • The majority of studies find that pornography consumption (especially of violent pornography) increases aggressionBroadband Internet: An Information Superhighway to Sex Crime?
  15. 15. Outline Motivation and Literature Theoretical Framework Data Empirical Strategy Results Discussion and ConclusionInternet access and the reported sex crime rate The effects of the internet access on the reported sex crime rate: c ∗ (i, r ) = q(i)c(i, r ) = q(i)p(r )λ(i) and therefore dc ∗ dq dλ ∂p dr = c + qp + qλ di di di ∂r di reporting matching direct effect effect effectBroadband Internet: An Information Superhighway to Sex Crime?
  16. 16. Outline Motivation and Literature Theoretical Framework Data Empirical Strategy Results Discussion and ConclusionInternet access and the reported sex crime rate The effects of the internet access on the reported sex crime rate: c ∗ (i, r ) = q(i)c(i, r ) = q(i)p(r )λ(i) and therefore dc ∗ dq dλ ∂p dr = c + qp + qλ di di di ∂r di reporting matching direct effect effect effect Reporting effect: effect of the internet use on qBroadband Internet: An Information Superhighway to Sex Crime?
  17. 17. Outline Motivation and Literature Theoretical Framework Data Empirical Strategy Results Discussion and ConclusionInternet access and the reported sex crime rate The effects of the internet access on the reported sex crime rate: c ∗ (i, r ) = q(i)c(i, r ) = q(i)p(r )λ(i) and therefore dc ∗ dq dλ ∂p dr = c + qp + qλ di di di ∂r di reporting matching direct effect effect effect Reporting effect: effect of the internet use on q Matching effect: effect of the internet use on λBroadband Internet: An Information Superhighway to Sex Crime?
  18. 18. Outline Motivation and Literature Theoretical Framework Data Empirical Strategy Results Discussion and ConclusionInternet access and the reported sex crime rate The effects of the internet access on the reported sex crime rate: c ∗ (i, r ) = q(i)c(i, r ) = q(i)p(r )λ(i) and therefore dc ∗ dq dλ ∂p dr = c + qp + qλ di di di ∂r di reporting matching direct effect effect effect Reporting effect: effect of the internet use on q Matching effect: effect of the internet use on λ Direct effect: effect of the internet use on rBroadband Internet: An Information Superhighway to Sex Crime?
  19. 19. Outline Motivation and Literature Theoretical Framework Data Empirical Strategy Results Discussion and ConclusionReporting effectReporting effect There is no possibility to report crimes online in NorwayBroadband Internet: An Information Superhighway to Sex Crime?
  20. 20. Outline Motivation and Literature Theoretical Framework Data Empirical Strategy Results Discussion and ConclusionReporting effectReporting effect There is no possibility to report crimes online in Norway Internet can decrease the stigma of being a victim of a sex crime (e.g. by increasing awareness or facilitating contact with victims or support groups)Broadband Internet: An Information Superhighway to Sex Crime?
  21. 21. Outline Motivation and Literature Theoretical Framework Data Empirical Strategy Results Discussion and ConclusionReporting effectReporting effect There is no possibility to report crimes online in Norway Internet can decrease the stigma of being a victim of a sex crime (e.g. by increasing awareness or facilitating contact with victims or support groups) The authors found no systematic studies of the subjectBroadband Internet: An Information Superhighway to Sex Crime?
  22. 22. Outline Motivation and Literature Theoretical Framework Data Empirical Strategy Results Discussion and ConclusionMatching effectMatching effect Internet may reduce information constraints (in particular, dating sites provide a lot of information)Broadband Internet: An Information Superhighway to Sex Crime?
  23. 23. Outline Motivation and Literature Theoretical Framework Data Empirical Strategy Results Discussion and ConclusionMatching effectMatching effect Internet may reduce information constraints (in particular, dating sites provide a lot of information) Internet may expand the choice set and make those matches available which were previously unavailableBroadband Internet: An Information Superhighway to Sex Crime?
  24. 24. Outline Motivation and Literature Theoretical Framework Data Empirical Strategy Results Discussion and ConclusionMatching effectMatching effect Internet may reduce information constraints (in particular, dating sites provide a lot of information) Internet may expand the choice set and make those matches available which were previously unavailable The anonymity may expand the pool of people looking for a matchBroadband Internet: An Information Superhighway to Sex Crime?
  25. 25. Outline Motivation and Literature Theoretical Framework Data Empirical Strategy Results Discussion and ConclusionMatching effectMatching effect Internet may reduce information constraints (in particular, dating sites provide a lot of information) Internet may expand the choice set and make those matches available which were previously unavailable The anonymity may expand the pool of people looking for a match Incapacitation and substitution effects: the time spent online may reduce the amount of matchesBroadband Internet: An Information Superhighway to Sex Crime?
  26. 26. Outline Motivation and Literature Theoretical Framework Data Empirical Strategy Results Discussion and ConclusionDirect effectDirect effect This is the effect of interest: how the internet use influences sexual aggression and affects the number of committed sex crimesBroadband Internet: An Information Superhighway to Sex Crime?
  27. 27. Outline Motivation and Literature Theoretical Framework Data Empirical Strategy Results Discussion and ConclusionCrime dataCrime data Administrative police registers: • Reported crimes for each municipality over 1993 – 2008 • Individual criminal charges for every resident over 1993 – 2004 Crime categories: overall reported sex crime, reported rape (25%), reported child sex abuse (45%)Broadband Internet: An Information Superhighway to Sex Crime?
  28. 28. Outline Motivation and Literature Theoretical Framework Data Empirical Strategy Results Discussion and ConclusionInternet access dataInternet access data The fraction of households with broadband internet subscriptions (faster than 256 kbit/s) for each municipality over 2000 – 2008 The fraction of households covered by one of the broadband internet providers in each municipality over 2000 – 2008Broadband Internet: An Information Superhighway to Sex Crime?
  29. 29. Outline Motivation and Literature Theoretical Framework Data Empirical Strategy Results Discussion and ConclusionInternet access dataBroadband internet expansion The expansion of internet was viewed by many governments as essential for retaining competitiveness and achieving high standards of livingBroadband Internet: An Information Superhighway to Sex Crime?
  30. 30. Outline Motivation and Literature Theoretical Framework Data Empirical Strategy Results Discussion and ConclusionInternet access dataBroadband internet expansion The expansion of internet was viewed by many governments as essential for retaining competitiveness and achieving high standards of living The National Broadband policy was introduced in Norway in May 1998: • Every household and private enterprise should have access to broadband internet at a reasonable and uniform price • The public sector should quickly adopt broadband internetBroadband Internet: An Information Superhighway to Sex Crime?
  31. 31. Outline Motivation and Literature Theoretical Framework Data Empirical Strategy Results Discussion and ConclusionInternet access dataBroadband internet expansion The expansion of internet was viewed by many governments as essential for retaining competitiveness and achieving high standards of living The National Broadband policy was introduced in Norway in May 1998: • Every household and private enterprise should have access to broadband internet at a reasonable and uniform price • The public sector should quickly adopt broadband internet The staged implementation was caused by limited funding and geographyBroadband Internet: An Information Superhighway to Sex Crime?
  32. 32. Outline Motivation and Literature Theoretical Framework Data Empirical Strategy Results Discussion and ConclusionInternet access dataBroadband internet expansion 31 Figure 2. Broadband internet expansion across NorwayBroadband Internet: An Information Superhighway to Sex Crime?
  33. 33. Outline Motivation and Literature Theoretical Framework Data Empirical Strategy Results Discussion and ConclusionSocio-demographic dataSocio-demographic data Individual socio-demographic information from 1993 to 2008: gender, age, immigrant status, country of origin, marital status, number of children, years of education, income, employment status, geographic identifiersBroadband Internet: An Information Superhighway to Sex Crime?
  34. 34. Outline Motivation and Literature Theoretical Framework Data Empirical Strategy Results Discussion and ConclusionEmpirical strategy Fixed effects regression: ∗ ckt = δikt + xkt β + αk + τt + εkt Instrumental variables (first step): ikt = φzk,t−1 + xkt β + γk + θt + ηkt • ikt is the fraction of households with broadband internet subscription • zkt is the fraction of households covered by one of the providers • xkt is the vector of controlsBroadband Internet: An Information Superhighway to Sex Crime?
  35. 35. Outline Motivation and Literature Theoretical Framework Data Empirical Strategy Results Discussion and ConclusionEmpirical strategy In the equations above k corresponds to municipality, t corresponds to year Controls xkt include: • Socio-demographic characteristics of municipalities • Additional variables: poverty rate, police officers per capita, urban settlement, unemployment rate, crime rate (excluding sex crimes)Broadband Internet: An Information Superhighway to Sex Crime?
  36. 36. Outline Motivation and Literature Theoretical Framework Data Empirical Strategy Results Discussion and ConclusionFixed effectsFixed effects Possible upward bias: those who commit sex crimes also tend to consume more internet pornography and thus use internet a lotBroadband Internet: An Information Superhighway to Sex Crime?
  37. 37. Outline Motivation and Literature Theoretical Framework Data Empirical Strategy Results Discussion and ConclusionFixed effectsFixed effects Possible upward bias: those who commit sex crimes also tend to consume more internet pornography and thus use internet a lot Possible downward bias: potential sex offenders may use internet more intensively in the areas with fewer potential victimsBroadband Internet: An Information Superhighway to Sex Crime?
  38. 38. Outline Motivation and Literature Theoretical Framework Data Empirical Strategy Results Discussion and ConclusionInstrumental variablesInstrumental variables The authors treat the broadband internet coverage as an instrument for internet use and consider it to be random relative to sex crimesBroadband Internet: An Information Superhighway to Sex Crime?
  39. 39. Outline Motivation and Literature Theoretical Framework Data Empirical Strategy Results Discussion and ConclusionInstrumental variablesInstrumental variables The authors treat the broadband internet coverage as an instrument for internet use and consider it to be random relative to sex crimes The internet user rate ikt is instrumented by the previous year coverage rate zk,t−1Broadband Internet: An Information Superhighway to Sex Crime?
  40. 40. Outline Motivation and Literature Theoretical Framework Data Empirical Strategy Results Discussion and ConclusionInstrumental variablesInstrumental variables The authors treat the broadband internet coverage as an instrument for internet use and consider it to be random relative to sex crimes The internet user rate ikt is instrumented by the previous year coverage rate zk,t−1 To find some evidence in favor of the validity of this instrument the authors regress ∆zkt on the set of socio-demographic features in the base year (2000) and find no systematic effect of such sex crime risk factors as immigrant population share, poverty rate and so onBroadband Internet: An Information Superhighway to Sex Crime?
  41. 41. Outline Motivation and Literature Theoretical Framework Data Empirical Strategy Results Discussion and ConclusionFixed effectsFE estimates 0.466∗∗ 0.549∗∗ 0.546∗∗ 0.570∗∗ All sex crimes (0.197) (0.212) (0.212) (0.210) 0.141∗∗ 0.127∗ 0.127∗ 0.130∗ Rape (0.071) (0.071) (0.071) (0.071) 0.158 0.180 0.180 0.193 Child sex abuse (0.134) (0.147) (0.147) (0.145) Demographic controls Police density Other crimes Note: Crime rates are calculated per 100,000 persons. Effects are reported per percentage point increase in the internet user rate. Standard errors are heteroskedasticity robust and clustered at the municipality level. * p < 0.10, ** p < 0.05, *** p < 0.01Broadband Internet: An Information Superhighway to Sex Crime?
  42. 42. Outline Motivation and Literature Theoretical Framework Data Empirical Strategy Results Discussion and ConclusionInstrumental variablesIV estimates 1.152∗∗ 1.167∗∗ 1.166∗∗ 1.217∗∗ All sex crimes (0.518) (0.534) (0.534) (0.533) 0.378∗∗ 0.391∗∗ 0.390∗∗ 0.401∗∗ Rape (0.163) (0.164) (0.164) (0.164) 0.616∗ 0.421 0.421 0.443 Child sex abuse (0.355) (0.370) (0.370) (0.370) Demographic controls Police density Other crimes Note: Crime rates are calculated per 100,000 persons. Effects are reported per percentage point increase in the internet user rate. Standard errors are heteroskedasticity robust and clustered at the municipality level. * p < 0.10, ** p < 0.05, *** p < 0.01Broadband Internet: An Information Superhighway to Sex Crime?
  43. 43. Outline Motivation and Literature Theoretical Framework Data Empirical Strategy Results Discussion and ConclusionInstrumental variablesEconomic significance Counterfactual sex crime rates • The estimates suggest that about 3.5% of the total number of sex crimes which occured between 2000 and 2008 would have been avoidedBroadband Internet: An Information Superhighway to Sex Crime?
  44. 44. Outline Motivation and Literature Theoretical Framework Data Empirical Strategy Results Discussion and ConclusionInstrumental variablesEconomic significance Counterfactual sex crime rates • The estimates suggest that about 3.5% of the total number of sex crimes which occured between 2000 and 2008 would have been avoided • When the actual trends are compared with the counterfactual ones the difference peaks in 2006 when according to the estimates roughly 3 out of 50 sex crimes per 100,000 inhabitants would have been avoidedBroadband Internet: An Information Superhighway to Sex Crime?
  45. 45. Outline Motivation and Literature Theoretical Framework Data Empirical Strategy Results Discussion and ConclusionRobustness checksDifferent specifications Municipality-specific trends are estimated using the prior data and then included in the regression Linear time trend interacted with baseline variables (as of year 2000) The same for time dummiesBroadband Internet: An Information Superhighway to Sex Crime?
  46. 46. Outline Motivation and Literature Theoretical Framework Data Empirical Strategy Results Discussion and ConclusionRobustness checksPlacebo tests The internet expansion is placed in the period before the actual roll-out (more precisely in 1993 – 2000) Future internet use is added to check whether it affects the current sex crime rateBroadband Internet: An Information Superhighway to Sex Crime?
  47. 47. Outline Motivation and Literature Theoretical Framework Data Empirical Strategy Results Discussion and ConclusionRobustness checksMore tests Outliers excluded Large cities excluded (to control for changes between rural and urban areas which coincide with the expansion) Sex crimes in neighboring municipalities are included Sorting is checked (the potential offenders could move to the areas with expanding broadband internet)Broadband Internet: An Information Superhighway to Sex Crime?
  48. 48. Outline Motivation and Literature Theoretical Framework Data Empirical Strategy Results Discussion and ConclusionDiscussionDiscussion The study by Kendell (2007) regresses the amount of rape incidences on the fraction of households with internet access and finds a negative associationBroadband Internet: An Information Superhighway to Sex Crime?
  49. 49. Outline Motivation and Literature Theoretical Framework Data Empirical Strategy Results Discussion and ConclusionDiscussionDiscussion The study by Kendell (2007) regresses the amount of rape incidences on the fraction of households with internet access and finds a negative association The new estimates are potentially less biasedBroadband Internet: An Information Superhighway to Sex Crime?
  50. 50. Outline Motivation and Literature Theoretical Framework Data Empirical Strategy Results Discussion and ConclusionDiscussionDiscussion The study by Kendell (2007) regresses the amount of rape incidences on the fraction of households with internet access and finds a negative association The new estimates are potentially less biased • Norway has much more homogeneous population than the United StatesBroadband Internet: An Information Superhighway to Sex Crime?
  51. 51. Outline Motivation and Literature Theoretical Framework Data Empirical Strategy Results Discussion and ConclusionDiscussionDiscussion The study by Kendell (2007) regresses the amount of rape incidences on the fraction of households with internet access and finds a negative association The new estimates are potentially less biased • Norway has much more homogeneous population than the United States • Pornography was banned in Norway and broadband internet made it easily availableBroadband Internet: An Information Superhighway to Sex Crime?
  52. 52. Outline Motivation and Literature Theoretical Framework Data Empirical Strategy Results Discussion and ConclusionDiscussionMechanisms Reporting effect: • Marginal reports are expected to be weaker and the ratio of charges to reports is expected to decrease. No evidenceBroadband Internet: An Information Superhighway to Sex Crime?
  53. 53. Outline Motivation and Literature Theoretical Framework Data Empirical Strategy Results Discussion and ConclusionDiscussionMechanisms Reporting effect: • Marginal reports are expected to be weaker and the ratio of charges to reports is expected to decrease. No evidence • Other changes in reporting behavior. The timing of reports could change. No evidenceBroadband Internet: An Information Superhighway to Sex Crime?
  54. 54. Outline Motivation and Literature Theoretical Framework Data Empirical Strategy Results Discussion and ConclusionDiscussionMechanisms Reporting effect: • Marginal reports are expected to be weaker and the ratio of charges to reports is expected to decrease. No evidence • Other changes in reporting behavior. The timing of reports could change. No evidence Matching effect: • If the time spent online crowds out other activities there should be effect on crimes other than sex crimes. No evidenceBroadband Internet: An Information Superhighway to Sex Crime?
  55. 55. Outline Motivation and Literature Theoretical Framework Data Empirical Strategy Results Discussion and ConclusionDiscussionMechanisms Reporting effect: • Marginal reports are expected to be weaker and the ratio of charges to reports is expected to decrease. No evidence • Other changes in reporting behavior. The timing of reports could change. No evidence Matching effect: • If the time spent online crowds out other activities there should be effect on crimes other than sex crimes. No evidence Direct effect: • Prior availability of pornography should lower the internet access effect. The effect is weaker in border areasBroadband Internet: An Information Superhighway to Sex Crime?
  56. 56. Outline Motivation and Literature Theoretical Framework Data Empirical Strategy Results Discussion and ConclusionConclusionConclusion The estimates suggest that broadband internet use is associated with an increase in the amount of reported rapes and other sex crimesBroadband Internet: An Information Superhighway to Sex Crime?
  57. 57. Outline Motivation and Literature Theoretical Framework Data Empirical Strategy Results Discussion and ConclusionConclusionConclusion The estimates suggest that broadband internet use is associated with an increase in the amount of reported rapes and other sex crimes The finding can be important for the ongoing debate regarding internet regulationBroadband Internet: An Information Superhighway to Sex Crime?
  58. 58. Outline Motivation and Literature Theoretical Framework Data Empirical Strategy Results Discussion and ConclusionConclusionConclusion The estimates suggest that broadband internet use is associated with an increase in the amount of reported rapes and other sex crimes The finding can be important for the ongoing debate regarding internet regulation If the matching effect is important than the policy response may be to provide more information about the risks associated with the internet useBroadband Internet: An Information Superhighway to Sex Crime?

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