Mega guess on i phone5c


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Guess on iPhone5C before revealed

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Mega guess on i phone5c

  1. 1. Mega Guess on iPhone5C 2013.8.17
  2. 2. Disclaimer No Relationship with Apple and other companies mentioned Not Working at No Stocks All Information is public and collected by Google Just Guess for Fun, No Guarantees for Digit Accuracy and Facts Not responsible for any loss caused by decisions based on this presentation
  3. 3. iPhone5C, No Doubt
  4. 4. The big next How Much???
  5. 5. The Price Depends The iPhone5C BOM Cost The margin expectation of Apple The Competitors’ Phones
  6. 6. Come to the Original Why iPhone5C?
  7. 7. Battle-axe Turn to Street Fight The User Experience Gap Closing and Even Vanish Android Mature with Great UI Experience Android Apps Blooming People Like Bigger Screen of Android Phones iPhone4/4s/5 compete with bundles phone models Many of those are Great and with less than half price of iPhone5 The Price Storm from Chinese Brands Pushes iPhone Market share down to 4.3% in China 2013Q2 from 9% 2012Q2
  8. 8. iPhone 4/4S to quit Too Old 3.5” Screen is too too Small Design too Old Maybe a bit sluggish to run iOS7 Cost Still too High iPhone4/4S makes iPhone margin lower But the Price still too High on Market
  9. 9. iPhone5C Target Price Low Enough to Take Back Market Share It’s aim to Price Sensitive Users Keep the Margin As High As Possible Meanwhile Still an iPhone
  10. 10. But Street Fight Turn to Iwo Jima Red Rice from Xiaomi 799¥ 100,000 Sold in 90 Seconds >7,000,000 pre-ordered
  11. 11. Red Rice Processor MT6589T, Quad-Core Cortex-A7 1.5GHz@28nm Memory 1GB RAM + 4GB ROM Screen 4.7’ 1280x720 IPS GPU PowerVR SGX544 Wireless TDSCDMA,GSM/GPRS OS Android 4.2.2 with MIUI V5 Camera 800M(Sumsung, 28mm,F2.2) + 130M Connectivity WiFi Direct + Bluetooth 4.0 + USB OTG + Dirac Audio + GPS + SDCard Brand Xiaomi Price 799¥(equal to 110$ pre-tax)
  12. 12. About Red Rice It’s Pretty Good Hardware Configuration Nearly at Same Level as iPhone5 If You Are not An Apple Fans, It’s Really Good Enough for You But It’s Really Cheap for a Brand Phone Not Shanzhai Means the Quality and Service Guaranteed Meanwhile XiaoMi is A Attractive Brand Mi Fan(Just like Apple Fans) is Already A Great Group That’s Why Red Rice Makes Astonishing Hot
  13. 13. Why So Cheap Xiaomi is the Brand Price Killer in China In-House MIUI Based Android, valued as Mobile Entry Almost zero profit on Phones While get Profit from Accessories Mediatek MT6589T turnkey solution Squeeze the BOM cost Integrate More in SoC and Manufacture with 28nm Process Using In-House chips: RF/PA, GPS/BT/WiFi, Power Management Optimize Other component: Small ROM, Reduce Passive component The Red Rice BOM cost + Manufacture cost less than 100$
  14. 14. Red Rice Start Price Slide Brand Phone With Similar Configuration Previously Sold from 1200¥~2299¥ in China Small Internet Brands Start Follow 799¥ Price Policy Quickly The Other China Brands Will be Pushed to Follow Soon Mediateck Turnkey Solution Makes International Brand Follow In Easily Sony, LG Already Design in MTK chips Do not Surprised if Amazon Got a “Red Rice” Sold at 120$ That Will Shake the US Smartphone Market
  15. 15. Pretty Good Smartphone Price Will Dramatically Going Down
  16. 16. And iPhone5C will Land on Normandy Beach, Price Got Tough Pressure
  17. 17. How Much 16G iPhone5C? 399$ , means 2899¥ in China(add 17% tax) No One Confident to Take Back Market Share 349$, means 2499¥ in China 299$, 2199¥ in China Hm, Interesting, Almost the Same Price of the Hi-End Phone of China Brand such as Xiaomi, Meizu … 269$, 1899¥ in China Pretty Price, Take Back Market Share, Pretty Possibility to Take Back Market Share.
  18. 18. If it’s 299$ Is it Possible to Keep Margin High?
  19. 19. Information and Rumors iPhone5 4” Screen,Plastic Shell Confirmed by Images Leaked iPhone5 Cameras: 8M + 1.2M Believable Low Performance Processor That Can Not Running Siri Siri is the Future Possibilities, is it Wise to Remove it Just for Several Bucks BOM Saving? A Processor Lower Performance than A5 Very Possibly make iOS7 and Apps sluggish But a 99$ Android Phone is Quiet Smooth, Which Will be Customers’ Choose?
  20. 20. A Better Processor Choice Qualcomm Snapdragon 400 Chips Such As 8930 1.2Ghz Dual-core krait 200 + Adreno 305 Performance Equal to A6, the System is Smooth and Siri Kept Using Qualcomm Chipset to Cover Processor Wireless(LTE not Mandatory, HSPA+ is OK ) Connectivity(BT + WiFi Power Management The total Price May Com This Do Save A Lot $$$, Let’s Check the BOM List
  21. 21. iPhone5 BOM List
  22. 22. A Estimate on iPhone5C BOM * iPhone5 Cost Data Source from iSupply 2012 September, iPhone5C Cost no Solid Data Source, Estimate Based on iPhone5 Component Plus a Compenets Cost Down for 1 Year
  23. 23. By Using Qualcomm Snapdragon Is it Possible to Squeeze iPhone5C 16GB Cost to 120$
  24. 24. iPhone5C 16GB Margin Price 299$ BOM Cost 130$, Margin 56.5% BOM Cost 120$, Margin 59.9% BOM Cost 110$, Margin 63.2% Price 269$ BOM Cost 130$, Margin 51.7% BOM Cost 120$, Margin 55.3% BOM Cost 110$, Margin 59.1%
  25. 25. iPhone5C Edge iOS Still Have Better User Experience Than Android A System Much More Stable and Will not Get Slow Down, Do not Need Some Optimization Apps for to Keep System Clear and Power Saving More Quality Apps and Isolated with Abuse Apps or Malice Apps But This Takes Several Month Using Compare to Aware That’s Why iPhone Market Share Up Brand It’s Apple
  26. 26. If Those Guess is True Apple Should Win