Market Opportunity,
    not Magic
   Scott Rafer,
  @E27 Unconference 2009
Losing unique status
Startup Capitals by 2015
   London + Tel Aviv
   Beijing + Shanghai
Startup Capitals by 2020?
        Bangalore
      Buenos Aires
        Singapore
Critical mass
Success builds on founder success
Defining success
Defining two exceptions
Too unlikely
Too little benefit
  to founders
It’s just math
A few million   $   of revenue
$
A few   /user/year
Small % penetration in years 1 to 3
Huge audience required
$   *   *
$2 * 3% * 50M = $3M



  Just for example
Market size matters most
Only China is big enough
English-speaking countries
  Europe + Middle East
       Latin America
        South Asia
      Southeast Asia

          ...
DVD DRM Regions
Back to Friendster
Capture 1 or 2 regions
Very rough examples to
   show early scale
$2 * 5% * 200M = $10M



Boring and linear as we like it
$__ * 25% * 200M = $__M


   Huge penetration,
 but multiplying by zero?
$2 * 2% * 200M = $8M



 Scaling from Slovenia
$3 * 5% * 200M = $15M



Nailed the model & acquired fast
Copy the German cloners!
Simplicity is all
Be late or be boring
Directories
Customer Lists
Analytics
Assemble and Sell Data
Happy to help as I have time,
          @rafer
E27 Unconference 2009   Rafer
E27 Unconference 2009   Rafer
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E27 Unconference 2009 Rafer

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Transcript of "E27 Unconference 2009 Rafer"

  1. 1. Market Opportunity, not Magic Scott Rafer, @E27 Unconference 2009
  2. 2. Losing unique status
  3. 3. Startup Capitals by 2015 London + Tel Aviv Beijing + Shanghai
  4. 4. Startup Capitals by 2020? Bangalore Buenos Aires Singapore
  5. 5. Critical mass
  6. 6. Success builds on founder success
  7. 7. Defining success
  8. 8. Defining two exceptions
  9. 9. Too unlikely
  10. 10. Too little benefit to founders
  11. 11. It’s just math
  12. 12. A few million $ of revenue
  13. 13. $ A few /user/year
  14. 14. Small % penetration in years 1 to 3
  15. 15. Huge audience required
  16. 16. $ * *
  17. 17. $2 * 3% * 50M = $3M Just for example
  18. 18. Market size matters most
  19. 19. Only China is big enough
  20. 20. English-speaking countries Europe + Middle East Latin America South Asia Southeast Asia *Japan and Korea are different
  21. 21. DVD DRM Regions
  22. 22. Back to Friendster
  23. 23. Capture 1 or 2 regions
  24. 24. Very rough examples to show early scale
  25. 25. $2 * 5% * 200M = $10M Boring and linear as we like it
  26. 26. $__ * 25% * 200M = $__M Huge penetration, but multiplying by zero?
  27. 27. $2 * 2% * 200M = $8M Scaling from Slovenia
  28. 28. $3 * 5% * 200M = $15M Nailed the model & acquired fast
  29. 29. Copy the German cloners!
  30. 30. Simplicity is all
  31. 31. Be late or be boring
  32. 32. Directories
  33. 33. Customer Lists
  34. 34. Analytics
  35. 35. Assemble and Sell Data
  36. 36. Happy to help as I have time, @rafer
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