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E27 Unconference 2009 Rafer

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The slides I wanted to use with my keynote.

The slides I wanted to use with my keynote.

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  • 1. Market Opportunity, not Magic Scott Rafer, @E27 Unconference 2009
  • 2. Losing unique status
  • 3. Startup Capitals by 2015 London + Tel Aviv Beijing + Shanghai
  • 4. Startup Capitals by 2020? Bangalore Buenos Aires Singapore
  • 5. Critical mass
  • 6. Success builds on founder success
  • 7. Defining success
  • 8. Defining two exceptions
  • 9. Too unlikely
  • 10. Too little benefit to founders
  • 11. It’s just math
  • 12. A few million $ of revenue
  • 13. $ A few /user/year
  • 14. Small % penetration in years 1 to 3
  • 15. Huge audience required
  • 16. $ * *
  • 17. $2 * 3% * 50M = $3M Just for example
  • 18. Market size matters most
  • 19. Only China is big enough
  • 20. English-speaking countries Europe + Middle East Latin America South Asia Southeast Asia *Japan and Korea are different
  • 21. DVD DRM Regions
  • 22. Back to Friendster
  • 23. Capture 1 or 2 regions
  • 24. Very rough examples to show early scale
  • 25. $2 * 5% * 200M = $10M Boring and linear as we like it
  • 26. $__ * 25% * 200M = $__M Huge penetration, but multiplying by zero?
  • 27. $2 * 2% * 200M = $8M Scaling from Slovenia
  • 28. $3 * 5% * 200M = $15M Nailed the model & acquired fast
  • 29. Copy the German cloners!
  • 30. Simplicity is all
  • 31. Be late or be boring
  • 32. Directories
  • 33. Customer Lists
  • 34. Analytics
  • 35. Assemble and Sell Data
  • 36. Happy to help as I have time, @rafer