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E27 Unconference 2009   Rafer
E27 Unconference 2009   Rafer
E27 Unconference 2009   Rafer
E27 Unconference 2009   Rafer
E27 Unconference 2009   Rafer
E27 Unconference 2009   Rafer
E27 Unconference 2009   Rafer
E27 Unconference 2009   Rafer
E27 Unconference 2009   Rafer
E27 Unconference 2009   Rafer
E27 Unconference 2009   Rafer
E27 Unconference 2009   Rafer
E27 Unconference 2009   Rafer
E27 Unconference 2009   Rafer
E27 Unconference 2009   Rafer
E27 Unconference 2009   Rafer
E27 Unconference 2009   Rafer
E27 Unconference 2009   Rafer
E27 Unconference 2009   Rafer
E27 Unconference 2009   Rafer
E27 Unconference 2009   Rafer
E27 Unconference 2009   Rafer
E27 Unconference 2009   Rafer
E27 Unconference 2009   Rafer
E27 Unconference 2009   Rafer
E27 Unconference 2009   Rafer
E27 Unconference 2009   Rafer
E27 Unconference 2009   Rafer
E27 Unconference 2009   Rafer
E27 Unconference 2009   Rafer
E27 Unconference 2009   Rafer
E27 Unconference 2009   Rafer
E27 Unconference 2009   Rafer
E27 Unconference 2009   Rafer
E27 Unconference 2009   Rafer
E27 Unconference 2009   Rafer
E27 Unconference 2009   Rafer
E27 Unconference 2009   Rafer
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E27 Unconference 2009 Rafer

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The slides I wanted to use with my keynote.

The slides I wanted to use with my keynote.

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Transcript

  • 1. Market Opportunity, not Magic Scott Rafer, @E27 Unconference 2009
  • 2. Losing unique status
  • 3. Startup Capitals by 2015 London + Tel Aviv Beijing + Shanghai
  • 4. Startup Capitals by 2020? Bangalore Buenos Aires Singapore
  • 5. Critical mass
  • 6. Success builds on founder success
  • 7. Defining success
  • 8. Defining two exceptions
  • 9. Too unlikely
  • 10. Too little benefit to founders
  • 11. It’s just math
  • 12. A few million $ of revenue
  • 13. $ A few /user/year
  • 14. Small % penetration in years 1 to 3
  • 15. Huge audience required
  • 16. $ * *
  • 17. $2 * 3% * 50M = $3M Just for example
  • 18. Market size matters most
  • 19. Only China is big enough
  • 20. English-speaking countries Europe + Middle East Latin America South Asia Southeast Asia *Japan and Korea are different
  • 21. DVD DRM Regions
  • 22. Back to Friendster
  • 23. Capture 1 or 2 regions
  • 24. Very rough examples to show early scale
  • 25. $2 * 5% * 200M = $10M Boring and linear as we like it
  • 26. $__ * 25% * 200M = $__M Huge penetration, but multiplying by zero?
  • 27. $2 * 2% * 200M = $8M Scaling from Slovenia
  • 28. $3 * 5% * 200M = $15M Nailed the model & acquired fast
  • 29. Copy the German cloners!
  • 30. Simplicity is all
  • 31. Be late or be boring
  • 32. Directories
  • 33. Customer Lists
  • 34. Analytics
  • 35. Assemble and Sell Data
  • 36. Happy to help as I have time, @rafer

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