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E27 Unconference 2009 Rafer

by Scott Rafer on May 16, 2009

The slides I wanted to use with my keynote.

The slides I wanted to use with my keynote.

Stanley Wong , VP of Product Marketing & Co-founder at Permuto Inc Tags lookery 3 years ago
James Dutton , Managing Director at Insightr Consulting 3 years ago
Yuhui BC , Thinker, writer, everydayman at Wherever I lay my hat, that’s home Tags scott rafer unconference e27 3 years ago
thenamesofmist 3 years ago
Cedric Chee , Freelance web developer at Home Tags unconf2009e27singapore 3 years ago
Paul Thrasher , Senior Software Engineer 3 years ago

Market Opportunity, not Magic Scott Rafer, @E27 Unconference 2009
Losing unique status
Startup Capitals by 2015 London + Tel Aviv Beijing + Shanghai
Startup Capitals by 2020? Bangalore Buenos Aires Singapore
Critical mass
Success builds on founder success
Deﬁning success
Deﬁning two exceptions
Too unlikely
Too little beneﬁt to founders
It’s just math
A few million $ of revenue
$ A few /user/year
Small % penetration in years 1 to 3
Huge audience required
$ * *
$2 * 3% * 50M = $3M Just for example
Market size matters most
Only China is big enough
English-speaking countries Europe + Middle East Latin America South Asia Southeast Asia *Japan and Korea are different
DVD DRM Regions
Back to Friendster
Capture 1 or 2 regions
Very rough examples to show early scale
$2 * 5% * 200M = $10M Boring and linear as we like it
$__ * 25% * 200M = $__M Huge penetration, but multiplying by zero?
$2 * 2% * 200M = $8M Scaling from Slovenia
$3 * 5% * 200M = $15M Nailed the model & acquired fast
Copy the German cloners!
Simplicity is all
Be late or be boring
Directories
Customer Lists
Analytics
Assemble and Sell Data
Happy to help as I have time, @rafer