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Towards Foresight 3.0
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  • 1. Dr. Rafael Popper, PhD Foresight and STI Policy, HSE Annual Research Conference, Moscow, 31 October 2013
  • 2. Towards Foresight 3.0 • Strategic Intelligence 2.0 vs 3.0 • Examples of Foresight 2.0 – Millennium Project – iKnow Project • Early steps towards Foresight 3.0 – Smart research (R) + technology development (TD) • CfWI HS Hub • CASI • Key Challenges and Opportunities • The way forward… Dr. Rafael Popper Towards Foresight 3.0 2
  • 3. Strategic Intelligence Process Elements
  • 4. Strategic Intelligence 2.0 vs 3.0
  • 5. Strategic Intelligence Process Elements
  • 6. Strategic Intelligence Process Elements
  • 7. On Stakeholders Foresight 2.0 – Roles – ‘owners’ & ‘contributors’ responsible of content production/ maintenance Foresight 3.0 – Roles – ‘owners’ responsible of systems wireframes and content production/maintenance – developers responsible for systems innovation, upgrades and technology development – contributors responsible for content validation and functionality requests – Experience – Experience – real-time and – real-time, dynamic and tailored response to dynamic response to intelligence needs user input – Participation – Participation – mass participation as – subject-matter experts and intelligence main target analysts as main targets Dr. Rafael Popper Towards Foresight 3.0 7
  • 8. On Intelligence Foresight 2.0 – Folksonomy – free classification of information Foresight 3.0 – Folktology – system ‘owners’ proposing/adapting ontological classifications and properties – allowing free tagging and user-relevant baskets of information – Mainly Bottom-up – Mixed Top-Down and Bottom-Up – Users add content – ‘owners’ add & commission content for for others to use and target/interested audiences to access (freely) share – target/interested audiences contribute on win-win basis (access to intelligence and tools) – Selling point: Basic trust – contributions available for the world to use, reuse, or re-purpose Dr. Rafael Popper – Selling point: Gained authority – contributions regarded as state-of-the-art intelligence for key audiences – Thematic/sectoral knowledge hub Towards Foresight 3.0 8
  • 9. On Business model Foresight 2.0 – Long tail – costs and ROI through service subscriptions or ‘sponsorships’ Foresight 3.0 – Long neck (with complementary long tail strategy) – costs and return on investment (ROI) through quality intelligence rather than quantity – ‘serving’ well-defined master(s) – Freemium – Multi-level servitisation ecosystem – basic services for – commissioned intelligence services and free and charging a tailored-systems development services premium for adds-on – selected high-quality content freely available for targeted outreach services – Supply-driven – ‘owners’ promoting access to digital resources and information crowdsourcing Dr. Rafael Popper – Ecosystem needs (or demand) driven – ‘owners’ and contributors aiming to fill knowledge gaps and promote forward-looking responses to well-defined ecosystem opportunities and challenges Towards Foresight 3.0 9
  • 10. Examples of Foresight 2.0
  • 11. Examples of Strategic Intelligence 2.0 Millennium Project Non-for-profit organisation Collaborative RTD project (1996-ongoing) (2009-11) + “metamorphosis” 49 partners in 40+ countries 8 partners in 5 countries “… global foresight network of Nodes, information, and software, building a global collective intelligence system…” Dr. Rafael Popper iKnow Project “… consortium-based RTD developing concepts and tools for interconnecting knowledge on issues potentially shaking or shaping the future of science, technology and innovation in Europe and the world...” Towards Foresight 3.0 11
  • 12. Early signals of Foresight 3.0
  • 13. Towards ‘smart complementarity’ research (R) Dr. Rafael Popper technology development (TD) Towards Foresight 3.0 13
  • 14. Early steps towards Strategic Intelligence 3.0 CfWI Horizon Scanning Hub Non-for-profit organisation Collaborative RTD project (2010-ongoing) (2014-2017) 7 partners in the UK 19 partners in 12 countries “… national authority on workforce planning and development, providing advice and information to the health and social care system in the United Kingdom…” Dr. Rafael Popper CASI Project “…consortium-based RTD promoting Public Participation in Developing a Common Framework for Assessment and Management of Sustainable Innovation (SI)...” Towards Foresight 3.0 14
  • 15. From Strategic Intelligence 2.0 to 3.0 2009 2010 Dr. Rafael Popper 2011 2012 2013 2014 Towards Foresight 3.0 2015 2016 2017 2018 15
  • 16. From Strategic Intelligence 2.0 to 3.0 2009 2010 Dr. Rafael Popper 2011 2012 2013 2014 Towards Foresight 3.0 2015 2016 2017 2018 16
  • 17. Towards ‘smart technology specialisation’ Futures Diamond Ltd. SME (Prague-Manchester) (2011-ongoing) “… IT company specialised in the development of tailored solutions for research and innovation communities and projects…” Dr. Rafael Popper Towards Foresight 3.0 17
  • 18. Key Challenges Strategic Intelligence 2.0 Strategic Intelligence 3.0 – Stakeholders – Stakeholders – gate keeping dilemma, marketing, – behavioural/paradigm change spam, uninformed enthusiasts in the intelligence community – legitimacy in terms of the actors – fragmentation leading to carrying their own vision's flag disperse efforts and stubborn – ‘Lone Ranger’ effect non-strategic competition – Intelligence instead of complementation – quality control & noise management (prisoner's dilemma) – lack of protocols and procedures for – ‘champion of champions’ data analysis, transformation of data – Intelligence into intelligence for decision-makers – managing intelligence – decontextualised mapping of TEEPSE gathering and analysis context of issues & analysts protocols and procedures – long-term sustainability – managing access to privileged – Business model and high-quality intelligence – ‘Jack of all trades, master of none’ – Business model – R+TD marriage management – Long neck vs. Long tail tension Dr. Rafael Popper Towards Foresight 3.0 18
  • 19. Key Opportunities Strategic Intelligence 2.0 Strategic Intelligence 3.0 – Stakeholders – exploiting the emerging ‘crowdsourcing bubble’ – Intelligence – unscrutinised intelligence – ‘collective’ intelligence illusion => pseudo-legitimacy – abusing ‘big data’ hype – Business model – reinventing the wheel – exploiting fragmented and uncoordinated STI systems – short-term and one-off contracts without major accountability – detached from long-term STI systems success – Stakeholders – exploiting ‘smart specialisation’ – authority & legitimacy of champions – Intelligence – focused yet 360 degree – de facto and robust quality control – clear data metamorphosis protocols and procedures – clear link to priority- and strategysetting processes – clear link to (supra)national STI policy – Business model – distributed intelligence hubs – paradigm- and vision-setting – capacity and skills development – rolling/growing contracts to develop knowledge-based products/services Dr. Rafael Popper Towards Foresight 3.0 19
  • 20. The way forward… • • • • • Recognising the need for Foresight + Building cooperation bridges between complementary strategic intelligence communities Funding, supporting and studying strategic intelligence 3.0 cases Recognising the need for Networks of Intelligence Ecosystems (NIE) Promoting robust and strategic research (R) and technology development (TD) partnerships – Demonstrating that real RTD solutions can better to inform decision-making – Developing and applying more research-oriented technology solutions Dr. Rafael Popper Towards Foresight 3.0 20
  • 21. Dr. Rafael Popper, PhD Rafael.Popper@manchester.ac.uk - Rafael.Popper@futuresdiamond.com Research Fellow | Manchester Institute of Innovation Research | University of Manchester Professional Advisor | Centre for Workforce Intelligence CEO & Innovation Director | Futures Diamond, Ltd. Foresight and STI Policy, HSE Annual Research Conference, Moscow, 31 October 2013 Towards Foresight 3.0 21 Dr. Rafael Popper