iKnowFutures Towards a globalInnovation & Foresight Knowledge Platform
strategies 1st messageThere are many “futures” around us…
Innovation Systems Our Mapping Foresight work has produced a > 1000 Mapping vast amount of futures-related information cases mapped Foresight unprecedented in the world > 2000 Identified Key Lessons Our Mapping Foresight activities have been + useful to understand foresight practices Findings in Europe and other world regions 846 cases mapped Mapping > 1600 Foresight identified & Forecasting 767 Introducing cases mapped Wild Cards & > 1400 Introducing Weak Signals identified networking (WI-WE) (SNA) and systems 437 systemic + cases mapped analyses Web 2.0 scanning > 800 into + identified Foresight 100 Bottom-up cases mapped Evaluation (Foresight Ark) 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010-2012
2nd message There are many waysof shaping our future…
NEWForesight & Horizon Scanning (FHS) Process Management Framework
Mapping Wild Cards Mapping Weak Signals Nomination Nomination 1. source 1. source 2. theme 2. theme 3. sub-theme 3. sub-theme 4. references 4. references 5. short name / headline 5. short name / headline 6. Abstract 6. abstract likelihood Description18 7. Description 1. manifestation 1. typology 2. potential implications 2. importance 3. importance Analysis Analysis early indicators 1. filterscriteria 1. 2. main drivers 2. main drivers 3. risks & opportunities 3. risks & opportunities 4. stakeholders’ actions 4. stakeholders’ actions Interconnection Interconnection 1. Grand Challenges 1. Grand Challenges 2. thematic relevance 2. thematic relevance 3. ERA relevance 3. ERA relevance 4. research-friendly strategies 4. research-friendly strategies 5. RTD & STI policy relevance 5. RTD & STI policy relevance
Delphi results on September 2011 60 60 900+ ISSUES. Key facts 4000+ assessments to and figures 60 Wild Cards 700+respondents 2500+ assessments to 60 Weak Signals
Wild Cards Delphi Wild Cards headline navigation panel Comments & full preview Description & Desirability Issue Short- & Long-term priority for policymaking Importance for STI policy in Your Country & EUassessment 1- Physical infrastructure Potential 2 - Virtual infrastructure impacts on 3 - Social welfare (in Your Country 4 - Economy platform & the EU) Preparedness 5 - Security 6 - Policy & governance 7 - Environment & ecosystems (iDelphi) ERA relevance 8 - STI systems Policy advice Current signals indicating WI plausibility Future signals indicating WI plausibility Wild Cards headline navigation panel Analysis & Submission panels
CAP Lack of interest in science by young scholars AGR Emergence of new agricultural methods for coping with climate change CAP Administration rather than results a priority SEC No strict global rules on nuclear security NUC Development of new materials Weak ENV Growing frequency of floods in Europe and the world Signals SPA Privatisation of space flights NAN Implantable electronics leaving no trace40% SSH Concerns over socio-economic and humanities research "downgrade" NUC Small-scale nuclear power plant operatingmatch CAP CAP Lack of interest in science by young scholars Administration rather than results a priority Top 10 SEC No strict global rules on nuclear security Weak ICT Next generation peer-to-peer content delivery platform Signals ENV Growing frequency of floods in Europe and the world for ICT Fast electronics for compact lab-on-chip applications AGR Bees be no more, less food than before UK ENV ENV Growing environmental legal class actions on no-win no-fee basis Emergence of secondary carbon financial vehicles HEA Increasing Self-Medication
Physical infrastructures Virtual infrastructures Social welfare Economy Security Policy & governance Environment & ecosystems Science, technology & innovation (STI) systems Suicide bombing in Stockholm Sec Pol SoW 100%Ph-I Env 75% Sec 50% No strict global rules Growing privatisation Sec Pol Eco on nuclear security 25% of war 0% Scientists predict Nuclear power plants mobile phone viruses Sec STI Vi-I Eco Sec built in third world Eco will become a serious countries threat
We promote knowledge transfer and dissemination of key resultsNational Expert Policy ERAStudies Interviews Alerts Toolkit
From farmer to consumer: Diversifying cropproduction and consumption.Overreliance on a few core crops (e.g. wheat)makes food production and consumptionvulnerable to any type of disruption. Were a newwheat disease to develop it could have severeimplications for food markets worldwide, whichcould have unforeseen consequences such asstarvation, civil unrest and high food prices.There is a need to prepare for diversifying foodproduction and consumption in order to avoidsuch consequences. Farmers need to be assistedin order to better diversify their crops andconsumers should be made aware of a greatervariety of food products…
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