Motivequest - The one number you need to know in social media measurement Dec 2013
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Motivequest - The one number you need to know in social media measurement Dec 2013

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It’s not buzz, sentiment, or influence — but there is one number that correlates sales with sharing. Learn what it is in this talk based on MotiveQuest's research with professors and Ph.D.’s at ...

It’s not buzz, sentiment, or influence — but there is one number that correlates sales with sharing. Learn what it is in this talk based on MotiveQuest's research with professors and Ph.D.’s at Northwestern University.

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  • INTRO:It’s not buzz, sentiment, or influence — but there is one number that correlates sales with sharing. Learn what it is in this talk based on David’s research with professors and Ph.D.’s at Northwestern University.
  • I’d like to talk today about how you can best measure social impact?I want to share our research on which metrics correlate best with sales and share and which don’t.I hope also to give you one big uber insight that you can take with you and use tomorrow to improve the effectiveness of your social measurement strategy.But first I want to make a plea…
  • My plea is to let your left brain take a break for a minuteWe all know the left brain. It is the side of the brain with the lab coat and the pocket protector. If left brain goes out on Saturday night it goes to watch a lecture on better parenting at the Y. There is no booze. He goes alone.The right brain is the party animal. He embraces life. He has passion and, most importantly for our discussion today he has heart.It is that heart that is key to understanding how to make your metrics more predictive, more effective and more useful.
  • In truth I must admit that I started my own journey firmly in the left brain camp. In 2006 I wandered into left brain Disneyworld - the statistics department at Northwestern university. I needed help. We had been analyzing social data since 2003 but we still really had no idea which metrics mattered most to sales and share. So we embarked on a two year journey to test and cross correlate all of the data that we could.
  • Initially it was frustratingIt turns out that many of the things that were easiest to measure , things like buzz, sentiment and influence were not great predictors of sales, share.
  • We began to realize that brand relationships, like human relationships were harder to quantify.Has anybody here ever been in a relationship (show of hands)Has anybody not (SMILE). Ok so you all know what I am talking about.The plain fact is that brand relationships operate in our brain exactly the same way as human relationships. It is a chemically induced biological truth.So in order to measure the strength of our relationships we need to find a better way to measure the emotional bonding process.In fact during the course of our investigation we made a discovery and that discovery profoundly changed our view on the way we thought the world worked and has changed the way we think about measuring social impact.PAUSEAs it turns out there is a way of thinking about measurement that relates far more effectively to how the brain actually processes relationship informationIt is a simple idea that can be expressed in one of the most ancient of structures.
  • The Pyramid We call it the “Partnership pyramid” Like any relationship it flows.. The pyramid mirrors the progress of any good romantic movie.It starts with the couple meeting and finding something in commonThey then journey together getting to know each other through their shared experiencesFinally they bond for life and become an inseparable, loving loyal couple.Let me give you a personal example ofMe, Let’ see, We.
  • I met my wife in a youth hostel in FreemantleAustralia..On our first date we shared our personal passions. We discovered that we had a shared interest in people, travel and exploration. We decided to stay connected for a whileAt the time I was travelling on a Motorcycle around the world and she hoped on the back.
  • In fact if any of you single people out there are looking for a good relationship test I might suggest that the very best way to test if a relationship will work is have your partner sit quietly on the back of a motorcycle for 5,000 miles on third world roads!
  • As the relationship developed we tried different experiences together. We elephant trekked in Thailand
  • We visited the beautiful Tioman island where they filmed the movie South Pacific…..
  • …although you never see the plumbing options in the movie
  • As the journey continuedthings began to intensify.In Nepal we had our first fight when the bag with all our papers mysteriously fell off the back of the bike. In my story the back of the bike was Emily’s protective domain . Luckily a friendly couple helped us out and our relationship survived.
  • In fact it survived so well that ultimately two years later we felt that we knew each other well enough to commit to the ultimate bond we got married. The bike test had paid off!
  • We have now been married 22 years..OK that is all very nice, if you are reading a copy of Allure magazine, but what does it have to do with Social Sales?
  • Well that brings us back to the statisticians at Northwestern. With Dr Jakki Thomas and her team we discoveredthat while things like buzz and sentiment were not great predictors of sales one metric was. Recommendations. When we love somebody we stand up for them in the world.In fact recommending a brand to others is a proxy for the deep relationship emotions that exist in a loyal human relationshipBut there was also some subtly involved. Different words had different amounts of impact. “I recommend” for example has more power than the more subtle “check it out”. So we spent about a year coded all of the thousands of ways people talked about their recommendations with different weightings, developing and testing our algorithm along the way.
  • Eventually we had an algorithm that worked pretty well. In one test for example we were able to see that recommendations for the mini translated directly into sales with a lag of about one month. In fact we were able to see that the shift in recommendations/advocacy could predict the shift in sales on a monthly basis.
  • Netflix’s rough summer of 2011 is anothergreat example. In July 2011 Netflix made a number of unpopular announcements. Volume of discussion about the brand shot through the roof. Sentiment expressed toward the brand sank through the floor. Yet at the same time, brand recommendation rose… and rose particularly sharply each time unpopular news hit the market. What happened?
  • Netflix’s moves were indeed unpopular, but they didn’t fundamentally change Netflix’s value. Consumers vented and complained, and yes, even left the brand… but the more thoughtful conversation agreed: Netflix is still the best value for the money. What’s the alternative? There is none. You’ll be back. And they were.
  • In fact when measured Apple has as many detractors as supporters. The difference is that the advocates drive the sales.
  • In fact we have found consistently over the past seven years that that the heart seems to drive the head, or at least the legs, when it comes to connecting measurable online activity with offline sales.
  • In one example with sprint the insights that they gleaned from studying their relationship enabled them to increase their sales by $133m.
  • You can also map the relationship metrics in order to guide what strategies to pursue.If you have low buzz and advocacy like Brand F you need to find some area of shared ME passion to Lasso – Skinny girl exampleIf you are in the middle “lets see” zone you need to build the relationship and get to know each other better – Markers MarkAnd if you are in in a WE relationship like brand A you need to activate your advocates in order to sell more – Jack Example
  • You can use this approach with the metrics that you already have. Often for our clients we will map the metrics they have through their own social dashboards to explore the relationship health.Me metrics tend to tell you about yourself but not much about the relationship. Things like Facebook likesRe tweetsSubscribersEtc.LET’S SEE Metrics are better, they indicate some form of engagement. Unprompted brand mentionsWe metrics are the holy grail metrics that demonstrate a deeper bond.
  • You can even use the approach to benchmark campaign perfomance for example across owned vs earned media. In this case Campaign 2 is much more effective at turning people who are talking about the brand into recommenders of the brand despite having a much lower starting place of superficial me connections.
  • So how can you best measure your social impact?
  • Move from me to weThink about how to ensure you have a powerful area of passion that connects your brand to your customers. Go on a journey of discovery together where you see if the relationship can work and finally arrive the destination of a powerful “we” based partnership. Treat your brand relationship like a humanrelationship a heart relationship and sales and loyalty will naturally follow along. So as you walk out of hear today you should be thinking about only one question…..  
  • ……what kind of unique partnership are you going to build tomorrow?Thank you.
  • Questions?

Motivequest - The one number you need to know in social media measurement Dec 2013 Presentation Transcript

  • 1. O N THE E SOCIAL NUMBER YOU NEED TO KNOW DAVID RABJOHNS SocialMedia.org December 2013
  • 2. Q. How can you best measure social impact?
  • 3. 2006
  • 4. NOT BUZZ SENTIMENT INFLUENCERS
  • 5. Undecided 64% RELATIONSHIPS ©MOTIVEQUEST 12/9/2013 6
  • 6. PARTNERSHIP PYRAMIDTM WE LET’S SEE ME ©MOTIVEQUEST 12/9/2013 7
  • 7. ME
  • 8. • Pic of Emily in aus. LET’S SEE
  • 9. Initiate • Emily on Bike LET’S SEE
  • 10. Experiment • Tiamon LET’S SEE
  • 11. • Emily shower LET’S SEE
  • 12. LET’S SEE
  • 13. WE
  • 14. WE
  • 15. RELATIONSHIPS ©MOTIVEQUEST 12/9/2013 16
  • 16.  ©MOTIVEQUEST 12/9/2013       17
  • 17. NETFLIX’S 2011 MELTDOWN Don’t let measuring get in the way of understanding. 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 ANNOUNCEMENT #1: Sentiment plummets ANNOUNCEMENT #2: Sentiment plummets NETFLIX ADVOCACY 5,000 0 ©MOTIVEQUEST 12/9/2013 18
  • 18. BRAND ADVOCATES VS. THE BLOODTHIRSTY MASSES. “I pay $27 now for Netflix and it's worth every penny. Heck, it's worth more than that and I could swallow another price-hike for the value it provides.” -- Netflix Lover ©MOTIVEQUEST 12/9/2013 19
  • 19. ADVOCATES TO DETRACTORS Love doesn’t mean absence of negatives 50% 50% Advocates Detractors ©MOTIVEQUEST 12/9/2013 Source: MCD Discussion1/1/2012-12/31/2012 Source: MCD Advocacy 2013 1/1/2012-12/31/2012 and other MQ Studies 20
  • 20. THE HEART DRIVES THE HEAD Share of Market 14% SHARE OF ADVOCACY & SALES 12% 10% 8% 6% Share of Advocacy 4% 2% 0% 1 ©MOTIVEQUEST 12/9/2013 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 21
  • 21. CELLULAR RELATIONSHIP CUSTOMER SERVICE 1.20 SPRINT NET ADDS IN MILLIONS 1.1 1.00 Advocate passion 0.80 0.644 0.60 0.40 0.20 0.00 COVERAGE -0.20 -0.40 -0.60 MODELS -0.565 -0.80 Q3 2009 The most strongly impassioned conversations about carrier loyalty were about customer service, models and coverage. Saved or new users: Av. Revenue per user Incremental Revenue ©MOTIVEQUEST 12/9/2013 Q3 2010 Q1 2011 Source: http://www.strategyanalytics.com/ 2.31m $58 $133.98m 1 2 22
  • 22. BRAND RELATIONSHIP MATRIXTM Helps map where you are and where to go next 800 Activate advocates Brand B WE 600 Brand A 400 Brand C Convert to advocacy 200 0 Brand E Brand D Attach to passion Brand F 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 ME AND LET’S SEE ©MOTIVEQUEST 12/9/2013 23
  • 23. PARTNERSHIP PYRAMIDTM WE Brand advocates LET’S SEE Unprompted brand mentions Content creation (YT videos, Pinterest pics) Text-based commentary in response to brand Facebook posts ME Facebook likes on brand posts Re-tweets of brand mentions Comments on YT videos Brand Facebook page likes Brand Twitter handle followers Followers on Pinterest, YouTube, Twitter ©MOTIVEQUEST 12/9/2013 24
  • 24. BENCHMARKING CAMPAIGNS CAMPAIGN 1 CAMPAIGN 2 900 3,400 WE Brand advocates 26,000 LET’S SEE Unprompted brand mentions Content creation (YT videos, Pinterest pics) Positive commentary in response to brand Facebook posts 29,000 ME 120,000 ©MOTIVEQUEST 12/9/2013 Facebook likes on brand posts Re-tweets of brand mentions Comments on YT videos Brand Facebook page likes Brand Twitter handle followers Followers on Pinterest, YouTube, Twitter 50,000 25
  • 25. Q. How can you best measure social impact? ©MOTIVEQUEST 12/9/2013 26
  • 26. MOVE FROM ME TO WE. ©MOTIVEQUEST 12/9/2013 27
  • 27. WHAT KIND OF PARTNERSHIP ARE YOU GOING TO BUILD? ©MOTIVEQUEST 12/9/2013 28
  • 28. MOTIVEQUEST David Rabjohns drabjohns@motivequest.com @MotiveQuest www.motivequest.com ©MOTIVEQUEST 12/9/2013 29