Over the air emerging markets - raj singh

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Emerging Market Opps (presented by Raj Singh at Over The Air)

Emerging Market Opps (presented by Raj Singh at Over The Air)

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  • 1. Emerging Markets Over The Air (London) Sep, 2010 Raj Singh www.rajansingh.com @mobileraj
  • 2. Agenda • Market data • Case studies • Your input! Let’s make this a discussion
  • 3. What the Telecom Analysts Think?
  • 4. Where Are the Subs? 55K 200M 78M 270M 110M 747M 488M 174M 45M
  • 5. Population ≠ Money
  • 6. PCs Versus SIM Cards
  • 7. Maybe Start With Youths?
  • 8. Average Selling Price
  • 9. Interesting Correlation
  • 10. Smartphones Versus Featurephones
  • 11. The Role of Mobile in Emerging Markets
  • 12. ME & Africa Wins
  • 13. App Retention
  • 14. Mobile Advertising
  • 15. Many Business Models Advanced Markets Emerging Markets Premium Apps Virtual Goods Free Mobile Ads Branded Operator Licensing OEM Licensing Gift Cards
  • 16. Common Misconceptions • Low price, high volume? – iPhone users :) • Data is expensive? – Nigeria charges $1-2 / month for unlimited data • 3G isn’t there? – Parts of Africa are deploying 4G; not stymied by backward support of 2G • Ad dollars are low? – In India, ad dollars on mobile are higher than on PC
  • 17. Case Study: Nokia Music • Music publishers do not make money outside of the top 5 countries (piracy!) • Nokia launches Come With Music – All you can eat full-track download when you buy the phone – Nokia adds $50 to the BOM and pays $30 to the publishers/labels (estimated) • Available in 10+ emerging countries and growing Biz Model: Consumer pays, music publishers get rev-share
  • 18. Case Study: Mig33 • Mobile social network • 40M registered user predominantly in SE Asia • Revenue model driven through the exchange of virtual goods via operator billing • WAP and J2ME lead! Biz Model: Consumer pays, operator rev-share
  • 19. Case Study: Mobile Retail (China) • Operators are the bank – China Mobile bills through national bank – Vivo links with Caixa (Brazil national bank) • mCommerce in emerging countries first? Biz Model: Consumer pays, operator (and retail?) rev-share
  • 20. Case Study: Micro-Prenuer • Mobile devices were too expensive in villages in parts of Bangladesh • Govts in partnership with Grameen Phone give females, subsidized mobile devices • Female micro-prenuers would rent use of the phone to other villagers (eg one phone roped to a pole in the middle of the village) • Enabled wealth amongst poorer female population • Brought mobile phone access to the village Biz Model: New local economies
  • 21. Case Study: Mobile Health (Turk Telekom) Ministry of Pharmaceuticals Health Hospitals Physicians Turk Telekom Patients Public Biz Model: Consumer, Operator pay
  • 22. Case Study: Opera Mini / Vodafone • Opera Mini’s proxy based approach compresses data before it’s sent to the device • Significant benefits for low- speed networks and/or prepaid markets • Of Mini’s 60M+ subs, a majority are in emerging markets representing 25B+ pageviews • Vodafone has launched Opera Mini on it’s emerging market handsets Biz Model: Operator pays or Free; Search/Advertising
  • 23. Case Study: Mobile Browsing • Mobile is primary browsing device • Not everyone can afford internet on their phone so it is often shared amongst family members • Some emerging market phones have integrated projectors so the screen can be projected onto a wall (to make a more enjoyable browsing experience) • Phone can be used with a Bluetooth keyboard and mouse to simulate a desktop PC experience Biz Model: OEM; Operator data revenue
  • 24. Case Study: Mobile Payments and Banking • Much of the emerging market lacks banking infrastructure • Operator stores could facilitate banking transactions through a partnership with a real bank in Kenya (powered by M-Pesa) • Consumers have more trust for the operator than their bank since it is a brand they use daily and they are already used to depositing money onto their SIM card • M-Pesa has 10M registered users and claims to manage almost 50% of all commerce in Kenya • 17K M-Pesa agents compared to 840 banks and 150 ATMs Biz Model: Free, Operator rev-share
  • 25. Case Study: Microsoft OneApp (South Africa) • Feature-phone app targeted at data-cost sensitive markets (prepaid markets) • Similar to “SMS browsers” but does use highly compressed data for transport • Access most popular services (eg Facebook) like Opera Mini but with even more compression; uses server-side rendering (Microsoft DeepFish) Biz Model: Consumer pays data, operator rev-share
  • 26. Case Study: Nokia Life Tools (India) • Suite of services / information targeted at India’s farmers • Real-time prices for subsidies (eg fruit, wheat) • Real-time prices for farmer’s needs (eg pesticides) • Weather reports for farm planning Biz Model: Consumer pays data, operator rev-share
  • 27. Case Study: USSD (Brazil) • 2G networks and prepaid data make browsing the internet expensive • Mobile-XL, Shorthand Mobile, Eyeline.mobi offer J2ME apps that effectively create a UI using SMS for transport (instead of data) • Think front-end UI to SMS services like Google Search • Great success in 2G countries – drives cheaper SMS volume Biz Model: Consumer pays SMS, operator rev-share
  • 28. Case Study: Facebook Zero (And Friendster) • Philippines and others charge for 1- day of data access (50 cents est.) for unlimited access to a service (eg Friendster) • Significant revenue stream for Friendster and other popular services (represents more than even the desktop website in advanced markets) • Operator drives data subs with longer term goal of moving to post-paid and de-commoditizing (with dual-SIM phones) • Facebook offers same promotion (like Friendster) but forgoes the rev-share • Facebook Zero takes it a step further; use FB to get subs hooked to data! Biz Model: Free!
  • 29. Case Study: Blackberry Messenger (Colombia) • Even SMS can get expensive • Use BBM and I can message my friends for free • Offered via operators for a monthly tariff • Has had great success and why BB is the #1 smartphone in much of SA Biz Model: Consumer pays for BBM plan, operator rev-share
  • 30. Case Study: SMS GupShup (India) • SMS driven social network launched in the past 2 yrs (when Facebook, Orkut and others were already present) • Represents 7-8% of all SMS volume in India • Revenue generated via SMS group sponsored ads
  • 31. Other Case Studies • Dual-SIM phones (commoditize operator) with flash lights • Youth journalism in Kenya • Send email via SMS in the Philippines • Bicycle charge kit to recharge your phone • Mobile banking in South Africa with MTN • Telemedicine in India • China to be Android’s #1 country Biz Model: Consumer pays, operator rev-share
  • 32. Why Go Emerging? • Younger and larger audience = larger social graph • Very high mobile engagement • Less competitive • Cheaper data (no phone subsidies), and fast(er) networks coming!