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Emerging Markets
Over The Air (London)
      Sep, 2010

       Raj Singh
   www.rajansingh.com
      @mobileraj
Agenda
• Market data
• Case studies
• Your input!



          Let’s make this a discussion
What the Telecom Analysts Think?
Where Are the Subs?
          55K

                             200M



          78M

  270M                             ...
Population   ≠   Money
PCs Versus SIM Cards
Maybe Start With Youths?
Average Selling Price
Interesting Correlation
Smartphones Versus Featurephones
The Role of Mobile in Emerging
           Markets
ME & Africa Wins
App Retention
Mobile Advertising
Many Business Models
Advanced Markets                Emerging Markets


               Premium Apps

   Virtual Goods

   ...
Common Misconceptions
• Low price, high volume?
  – iPhone users :)
• Data is expensive?
  – Nigeria charges $1-2 / month ...
Case Study: Nokia Music
                             • Music publishers do not make
                               money o...
Case Study: Mig33
• Mobile social network
• 40M registered user
  predominantly in SE Asia
• Revenue model driven through
...
Case Study: Mobile Retail (China)
    • Operators are the bank
         – China Mobile bills through national bank
       ...
Case Study: Micro-Prenuer
• Mobile devices were too expensive
  in villages in parts of Bangladesh
• Govts in partnership ...
Case Study: Mobile Health (Turk
                     Telekom)
                                     Ministry of
   Pharmace...
Case Study: Opera Mini / Vodafone
                                    • Opera Mini’s proxy based
                         ...
Case Study: Mobile Browsing
• Mobile is primary browsing device
• Not everyone can afford internet on
  their phone so it ...
Case Study: Mobile Payments and Banking
 • Much of the emerging market lacks
   banking infrastructure
 • Operator stores ...
Case Study: Microsoft OneApp (South
                     Africa)
                                   • Feature-phone app ta...
Case Study: Nokia Life Tools (India)
                                    • Suite of services /
                           ...
Case Study: USSD (Brazil)
• 2G networks and prepaid data
  make browsing the internet
  expensive
• Mobile-XL, Shorthand M...
Case Study: Facebook Zero (And Friendster)

 • Philippines and others charge for 1-
   day of data access (50 cents est.) ...
Case Study: Blackberry Messenger (Colombia)

 • Even SMS can get
   expensive
 • Use BBM and I can message
   my friends f...
Case Study: SMS GupShup (India)
• SMS driven social network
  launched in the past 2 yrs
  (when Facebook, Orkut and
  oth...
Other Case Studies
 • Dual-SIM phones (commoditize operator) with
   flash lights
 • Youth journalism in Kenya
 • Send ema...
Why Go Emerging?
• Younger and larger audience = larger social
  graph
• Very high mobile engagement
• Less competitive
• ...
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Over the air emerging markets - raj singh

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Emerging Market Opps (presented by Raj Singh at Over The Air)

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Transcript of "Over the air emerging markets - raj singh"

  1. 1. Emerging Markets Over The Air (London) Sep, 2010 Raj Singh www.rajansingh.com @mobileraj
  2. 2. Agenda • Market data • Case studies • Your input! Let’s make this a discussion
  3. 3. What the Telecom Analysts Think?
  4. 4. Where Are the Subs? 55K 200M 78M 270M 110M 747M 488M 174M 45M
  5. 5. Population ≠ Money
  6. 6. PCs Versus SIM Cards
  7. 7. Maybe Start With Youths?
  8. 8. Average Selling Price
  9. 9. Interesting Correlation
  10. 10. Smartphones Versus Featurephones
  11. 11. The Role of Mobile in Emerging Markets
  12. 12. ME & Africa Wins
  13. 13. App Retention
  14. 14. Mobile Advertising
  15. 15. Many Business Models Advanced Markets Emerging Markets Premium Apps Virtual Goods Free Mobile Ads Branded Operator Licensing OEM Licensing Gift Cards
  16. 16. Common Misconceptions • Low price, high volume? – iPhone users :) • Data is expensive? – Nigeria charges $1-2 / month for unlimited data • 3G isn’t there? – Parts of Africa are deploying 4G; not stymied by backward support of 2G • Ad dollars are low? – In India, ad dollars on mobile are higher than on PC
  17. 17. Case Study: Nokia Music • Music publishers do not make money outside of the top 5 countries (piracy!) • Nokia launches Come With Music – All you can eat full-track download when you buy the phone – Nokia adds $50 to the BOM and pays $30 to the publishers/labels (estimated) • Available in 10+ emerging countries and growing Biz Model: Consumer pays, music publishers get rev-share
  18. 18. Case Study: Mig33 • Mobile social network • 40M registered user predominantly in SE Asia • Revenue model driven through the exchange of virtual goods via operator billing • WAP and J2ME lead! Biz Model: Consumer pays, operator rev-share
  19. 19. Case Study: Mobile Retail (China) • Operators are the bank – China Mobile bills through national bank – Vivo links with Caixa (Brazil national bank) • mCommerce in emerging countries first? Biz Model: Consumer pays, operator (and retail?) rev-share
  20. 20. Case Study: Micro-Prenuer • Mobile devices were too expensive in villages in parts of Bangladesh • Govts in partnership with Grameen Phone give females, subsidized mobile devices • Female micro-prenuers would rent use of the phone to other villagers (eg one phone roped to a pole in the middle of the village) • Enabled wealth amongst poorer female population • Brought mobile phone access to the village Biz Model: New local economies
  21. 21. Case Study: Mobile Health (Turk Telekom) Ministry of Pharmaceuticals Health Hospitals Physicians Turk Telekom Patients Public Biz Model: Consumer, Operator pay
  22. 22. Case Study: Opera Mini / Vodafone • Opera Mini’s proxy based approach compresses data before it’s sent to the device • Significant benefits for low- speed networks and/or prepaid markets • Of Mini’s 60M+ subs, a majority are in emerging markets representing 25B+ pageviews • Vodafone has launched Opera Mini on it’s emerging market handsets Biz Model: Operator pays or Free; Search/Advertising
  23. 23. Case Study: Mobile Browsing • Mobile is primary browsing device • Not everyone can afford internet on their phone so it is often shared amongst family members • Some emerging market phones have integrated projectors so the screen can be projected onto a wall (to make a more enjoyable browsing experience) • Phone can be used with a Bluetooth keyboard and mouse to simulate a desktop PC experience Biz Model: OEM; Operator data revenue
  24. 24. Case Study: Mobile Payments and Banking • Much of the emerging market lacks banking infrastructure • Operator stores could facilitate banking transactions through a partnership with a real bank in Kenya (powered by M-Pesa) • Consumers have more trust for the operator than their bank since it is a brand they use daily and they are already used to depositing money onto their SIM card • M-Pesa has 10M registered users and claims to manage almost 50% of all commerce in Kenya • 17K M-Pesa agents compared to 840 banks and 150 ATMs Biz Model: Free, Operator rev-share
  25. 25. Case Study: Microsoft OneApp (South Africa) • Feature-phone app targeted at data-cost sensitive markets (prepaid markets) • Similar to “SMS browsers” but does use highly compressed data for transport • Access most popular services (eg Facebook) like Opera Mini but with even more compression; uses server-side rendering (Microsoft DeepFish) Biz Model: Consumer pays data, operator rev-share
  26. 26. Case Study: Nokia Life Tools (India) • Suite of services / information targeted at India’s farmers • Real-time prices for subsidies (eg fruit, wheat) • Real-time prices for farmer’s needs (eg pesticides) • Weather reports for farm planning Biz Model: Consumer pays data, operator rev-share
  27. 27. Case Study: USSD (Brazil) • 2G networks and prepaid data make browsing the internet expensive • Mobile-XL, Shorthand Mobile, Eyeline.mobi offer J2ME apps that effectively create a UI using SMS for transport (instead of data) • Think front-end UI to SMS services like Google Search • Great success in 2G countries – drives cheaper SMS volume Biz Model: Consumer pays SMS, operator rev-share
  28. 28. Case Study: Facebook Zero (And Friendster) • Philippines and others charge for 1- day of data access (50 cents est.) for unlimited access to a service (eg Friendster) • Significant revenue stream for Friendster and other popular services (represents more than even the desktop website in advanced markets) • Operator drives data subs with longer term goal of moving to post-paid and de-commoditizing (with dual-SIM phones) • Facebook offers same promotion (like Friendster) but forgoes the rev-share • Facebook Zero takes it a step further; use FB to get subs hooked to data! Biz Model: Free!
  29. 29. Case Study: Blackberry Messenger (Colombia) • Even SMS can get expensive • Use BBM and I can message my friends for free • Offered via operators for a monthly tariff • Has had great success and why BB is the #1 smartphone in much of SA Biz Model: Consumer pays for BBM plan, operator rev-share
  30. 30. Case Study: SMS GupShup (India) • SMS driven social network launched in the past 2 yrs (when Facebook, Orkut and others were already present) • Represents 7-8% of all SMS volume in India • Revenue generated via SMS group sponsored ads
  31. 31. Other Case Studies • Dual-SIM phones (commoditize operator) with flash lights • Youth journalism in Kenya • Send email via SMS in the Philippines • Bicycle charge kit to recharge your phone • Mobile banking in South Africa with MTN • Telemedicine in India • China to be Android’s #1 country Biz Model: Consumer pays, operator rev-share
  32. 32. Why Go Emerging? • Younger and larger audience = larger social graph • Very high mobile engagement • Less competitive • Cheaper data (no phone subsidies), and fast(er) networks coming!
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