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Mobile 8

  1. 2. What is dividend Policy ? <ul><li>The decision to pay out earnings versus retaining and reinvesting them </li></ul><ul><li>Dividend policy includes : </li></ul><ul><li>High or low dividend payout ? Stable or irreguler dividends? How frequent to pay dividends ? </li></ul><ul><li>Announce the policy? </li></ul>
  2. 3. Do investors prefer high or low dividend payouts? <ul><li>Three theories of dividend policy </li></ul><ul><li>Dividend irrelevance : Investor don’t care about payout </li></ul><ul><li>Bird in-the-hand : Investors prefer a high payout. </li></ul><ul><li>Tax preference : Investors prefer a low payout. </li></ul>
  3. 4. Bird-in-the hand theory <ul><li>Investors think dividends are less risky than potential future capital gains, hence they like dividends. </li></ul><ul><li>If so, investors would value high payout firm more highly, i.e., a high payout would result in a high P 0 . </li></ul>
  4. 5. <ul><li>Teori Ketidak relevanan Dividen, Bird-in-the hand, dan Prefensi Pajak </li></ul>Bird in the hand MM: Ketidakrelevanan Preferensi pajak Pembayaran Harga Saham, Po ($) 50% 100% 30 20 10 0 40
  5. 6. <ul><li>Teori Ketidak relevanan Dividen, Bird-in-the hand, dan Prefensi Pajak </li></ul>Preferensi pajak MM : Ketidakrelevanan Bird in the hand Pembayaran Biaya Ekuitas = Ks (%) 11,25 15 22,5 50% 100%
  6. 7. Alternatif kebijakan pembagian dividen Persentase pembagian Persentase yang ditahan DPS g 0% 100% $ 0 15% 50% 50% $ 2,25 7,5% 100% 0% $ 4,5 0%
  7. 8. Kemungkinan situasi (hanya satu yg bisa direalisasikan) Catatan: Nilai buku=nilai pasar awal=$30 persaham ROE=15%,EPS=$30(0,15)=$4,5,g=(%yg ditahan)(ROE)=(% yg ditahan)(15%),contoh pada pembagian 50% g=0,5(15%)=7,5% k s = Hasil dividen+laju pertumbuhan. MM:Ketidakrelevanan Bird-in-the hand Preferensi Pajak P 0 D/P 0 ks P 0 D/P 0 ks P 0 D/P 0 ks $30 0,0% 15% $30 0,00% 15% $30 0,0% 15% $30 7,5% 15% $35 6,43 13,93 25 9% 16,5% $30 15% 15% $40 11,25 11,25 20 22,5 22,5%
  8. 9. Which theory is most correct ? <ul><li>Emphirical testing has not been able to determine which theory, if any, is correct. </li></ul><ul><li>Thus, managers use judgment when setting policy. </li></ul><ul><li>Analysis is used, but it must be applied with judgment. </li></ul>
  9. 10. What`s the “information content,” or signaling Hypothesis ? <ul><li>Managers hate to cut dividends, so they won`t raise dividends unless they think raise is sustainable. So, Investors view dividend increases as signals of management`s view of the future. </li></ul><ul><li>Therefore, a stock price increase at time of a dividend increse could reflect higher expectations for future EPS, not a desire for dividends </li></ul>
  10. 11. What is the “residual dividend model”? <ul><li>Find the retained earnings needed for the capital budget. </li></ul><ul><li>Pay out any leftover earnings (the residual) as dividends. </li></ul><ul><li>Thus policy minimizes flotation and equity signaling cost, hence minimizes the WACC </li></ul>
  11. 12. Residual dividend model <ul><li>Dividends = </li></ul><ul><li>Capital budget : $800,000 </li></ul><ul><li>Target Capital Struktur : 40% debt,60%equity </li></ul><ul><li>Forecasted net income $600,000 </li></ul><ul><li>How much of the forecasted net income should be paid out as dividends? </li></ul><ul><li>How much DPR ? </li></ul>target equity ratio Total capital budget Net Income x -
  12. 13. Residual dividend model : Calculating dividends paid <ul><li>Calculate portion of capital budget to be funded by equity </li></ul><ul><li>- Of the $800.000 capital budget, 0,6($800.000)=$480,000 will be funded with equity. </li></ul><ul><li>- Calculate exess or need for equity capital. </li></ul><ul><li>with net income of $600.000,there is more than enough equity to fund the capital budget. There will be $600.000-$480,000 =$120,000 leftover to pay as dividends. </li></ul><ul><li>Calculate dividend payout ratio : </li></ul><ul><li>$120,000/$600,000 = 0,20 = 20% </li></ul>
  13. 14. What`s a”dividend reinvesment plan (DRIP)”? <ul><li>Shareholders can automatically reinvest their dividends in shares of the company`s common stock. Get more stock than cash </li></ul><ul><li>There are two types plans : </li></ul><ul><li>- Open Market </li></ul><ul><li>- New Stock </li></ul>
  14. 15. Setting Dividend Policy <ul><li>Forecast capital needs over a planning horizon,often 5 years </li></ul><ul><li>Set a target capital structure. </li></ul><ul><li>Estimate annual equity needs </li></ul><ul><li>Set target payout based on the residual model. </li></ul><ul><li>Generally, some dividend growth rate emerges. Maintain target growth rate if possible,varying capital structure somewhat if necessary. </li></ul>
  15. 16. Stock Repurchases <ul><li>Buying own stock back from stockholders </li></ul><ul><li>Reasons for Repurchases : </li></ul><ul><li>- As an alternative to distributing cash as dividends </li></ul><ul><li>- To dispose of one time cash from an asset sale </li></ul><ul><li>- To make a large capital structure change </li></ul>
  16. 17. Advantages of Repurchases <ul><li>Stockholders can tender or not </li></ul><ul><li>Helps avoid setting a high dividend that cannot be maintained </li></ul><ul><li>Repurchased Stock can be used in takeovers or resold to raise cash as needed </li></ul><ul><li>Income received is capital gains rather than higher-taxed dividends. </li></ul><ul><li>Stockholders may take as a positive signal management thinks stock is undervalued. </li></ul>
  17. 18. Pengaruh dari Pembelian Kembali Saham <ul><li>EPS saat ini </li></ul><ul><li>= Total laba / Jumlah saham=$4,4 juta/1,1 juta =$4 per saham </li></ul><ul><li>Rasio P/E = $20/$4= 5 kali </li></ul><ul><li>EPS sesudah pembelian kembali 100.000 saham =$4,4 juta/1 juta = $4,4 per saham </li></ul><ul><li>Harga pasar yang diharapkan sesudah pembelian kembali = (P/E0(EPS)=(5)($4,4) = $22 per saham </li></ul>
  18. 19. Stock dividends vs Stock Splits <ul><li>Stock dividend : Firm issues new shares in lieu of paying a cash dividend. If 10%, get 10 shares for each 100 shares owned. </li></ul><ul><li>Stock Splits : Firm increases the number of shares outstanding, say 2:1. Sends shareholders more shares </li></ul><ul><li>Both stock dividends and Stock Splits increase the number of shares outstanding, so “the pie is divided into smaller pieces.” </li></ul>
  19. 20. Stock dividends vs Stock Splits <ul><li>Unless the stock dividends or Splits conveys information, or is accompanied by another event like higher dividends, the stock price falls so as to keep each investor`s wealth unchanged. </li></ul><ul><li>But split/stock dividends may get us to an “optimal price range.” </li></ul>
  20. 21. Faktor-faktor yang mempengaruhi kebijakan dividen <ul><li>Kontrak Hutang </li></ul><ul><li>Pembatasan Saham Preferen </li></ul><ul><li>Ketidak cukupan laba </li></ul><ul><li>Ketersediaan Kas </li></ul><ul><li>Denda Pajak atas penahanan laba yang tidak wajar </li></ul>
  21. 22. EPS,Cash Flow,DPS DPS EPS CFPS Dollar Year
  22. 23. <ul><li>Bahan diskusi </li></ul><ul><li>Mengapa perusahaan dengan tk pertumbuhan yg tinggi cenderung memiliki rasio pembayaran dividen yg rendah dan perush dg tk pertumbuhan yg rendah cenderung memiliki rasio pembayaran dividen yg tinggi ? </li></ul><ul><li>Sebutkan keunggulan dan kelemahan dari kebijakan pembayaran dividen stabil perlembar saham dan rasio pembayaran dividen stabil sebagai kebijakan dividen perusahaan ! </li></ul><ul><li>Berikan definisi dividen saham dan pemecahan saham. Apa pengaruhnya thd nilai saham ? </li></ul><ul><li>Apa yang dimaksud dengan rencana investasi kembali dividen dan bagaimana rencana ini membantu para pemegang saham </li></ul>