1997, internet connection was xmas present of the year The challenge lies in dealing with uncertainty - hence the attraction of using scenarios. Scenarios provide more 'headroom' in terms of being aware of what may unfold; how certain developments may interrelate with others and to free-think about what the future may be like. Paul Roberts, leader of the Vision 20/20 project Phases of development in internet Presence Interaction Transaction Transformation – borders between customers and organizations as well as between organizations disappear
Australian government The process of developing scenarios builds and enhances participant strategic thinking and decision-making skills under uncertainty, and provides the opportunity to discuss longer-term issues and: • challenge current assumptions about the future • develop new insights about the future in terms of the industry’s strategic environment • explore options • identify likely future skills base and resource needs for the regulatory environment and • provide leadership in thinking about the future. Gartner Group 2007 There is significant probability that, over time, market pressures will lead to a merging of current virtual worlds into a smaller number of open-sourced environments that support the free transfer of assets and avatars from one to another with the use of a single, universal client Business Week 2007 Even the earliest adopters of Second Life are turning elsewhere. In September, 2005, Wells Fargo was ahead of the corporate stampede into Second Life when it launched a 3D virtual environment, &quot;Stagecoach Island,&quot; in Second Life to attract youthful, tech-savvy customers and teach them about banking. Now nearly 50 corporations use Second Life, with Royal Philips Electronics, Coca-Cola, and News Corp. among the latest. But Wells Fargo is gone. It pulled its Stagecoach Island out and opted to create its own world, a larger, stand-alone online universe that it can monitor more closely and customize.
People two, three or four years apart are having completely different experiences with technology,” said Lee Rainie, director of the Pew Research Center’s Internet and American LifeProject. “College students scratch their heads at what their high school siblings are doing, andthey scratch their heads at their younger siblings. It has sped up generational differences.”
Some viewers of Gilligan’s Island apparently took the show seriously in the 1960s. The U.S. Coast Guard received several telegrams from concerned citizens asking why they didn’t rescue the Minnow’s crew. This has been an excellent week. I have received four or five emails from London and Africa announcing that I have been selected to receive, from each of them, sums in eXcess of ten million dollars The quite remarkable fact seems to be that one fellow’s plane crash, another’s unexpected demise—apparently run over by a herd of elephants— a third’s cruel wife, have all resulted in me being just the right person on the planet to receive millions of dollars which was left in their estates. Not only that: Several lotteries have paid off this week as well, and, just like the poor African ministers who want to share their millions with me, the lottery companies are happy to send money as well. It seems all I have to do is let any one of these secret correspondents know a few details about my bank account and social security number and my life worries will be over.
Starting next week, Verizon will double the early-termination fee for smartphones... ...The phone is designed in such a way that you can almost never avoid getting $1.99 charge on the bill. Around the OK button on a typical flip phone are the up, down, left, right arrows. If you open the flip and accidentally press the up arrow key, you see that the phone starts to connect to the web. So you hit END right away. Well, too late. You will be charged $1.99 for that 0.02 kilobytes of data... ...Every month, the 87 million customers will accidentally hit that key a few times a month! That’s over $300 million per month in data revenue off a simple mistake!..
Web criminals are getting much more personal in their attacks, using social networking sites and other databases to make their story lines much more believable. Bryan Rutberg's daughter was among the first to notice something odd about her dad's Facebook page. At about 8 p.m. on Jan. 21, she ran into his bedroom and asked why he'd changed his status to: “BRYAN IS IN URGENT NEED OF HELP!!!“ In Rutberg's case, criminals managed to steal his Facebook login password, steal his Facebook identity, and change his page to make it appear he was in trouble. Next, the criminals sent e-mails to dozens of friends, begging them for help.
WCCC Faculty Presentation
"Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future” Niels Bohr
“ The free access which many young people have…has poisoned the mind and corrupted the morals of many a promising youth.” Reverend Enos Hitchcock, Memoirs of the Bloomsgrove Family, 1790
“ This new form of entertainment has gone far to blast maidenhood……… Depraved adults with candies and pennies beguile children with the inevitable result” Society for the Prevention of Cruelty to Children, 1909
“ Does it break up the home life and the old practice of visiting friends?” <ul><li>The Knights of Columbus…1933 </li></ul>
Nine Themes <ul><li>1 . Digital Etiquette: rules and policy </li></ul><ul><li>2. Digital Communication: electronic exchange of information 3. Digital Literacy: process of learning about technology and the use of technology </li></ul><ul><li>4. Digital Access: full electronic participation in society. 5. Digital Commerce: electronic buying and selling of goods . 6. Digital Law & Ethics: electronic responsibility for actions and deeds 7. Digital Rights & Responsibilities: those freedoms extended to everyone in a digital world. </li></ul><ul><li>8. Digital Health & Wellness: physical and psychological well-being in a digital world. 9. Digital Security (self-protection): electronic precautions to guarantee safety. </li></ul>
The Societal Consequences <ul><li>Emotional & Physical Health </li></ul><ul><li>Economic imperative </li></ul><ul><li>Political inclusion </li></ul><ul><li>Critical thinking </li></ul><ul><li>Personal safety </li></ul>
Cyber Bullying and Social Isolation: Phoebe & Alexis
1978 Business Technology Conference in Phoenix Victor Vurpillat, Ph.D. “Conversations with the Future.” For the Christmas season in 1978 Mattel Electronics introduces a handheld electronic game “Football”.
$2,400 (over $5,000 today) <ul><li>WordStar, CP/M and NorthStar DOS and more. </li></ul>
Gartner Group, April 2007 By the end of 2011, 80% of active Internet users (and fortune 500 companies will have a “second life” …..not necessarily in Second Life Source: the Gartner Group, April 2007 Economic Impact Completely private virtual business worlds offering tools to conduct business and collaborate.
Four scenarios for 2012 Fragmentated worlds Integrated worlds Advanced usage Less- advanced usage <ul><li>Digital Divide </li></ul><ul><li>Ease of mobility </li></ul><ul><li>Self-governance </li></ul><ul><li>Dominance by gaming generation </li></ul><ul><li>Traditional vs virtual business </li></ul><ul><li>One Converged Universe </li></ul><ul><li>High penetration </li></ul><ul><li>Easy avatar & asset mobility </li></ul><ul><li>High scalability & security </li></ul><ul><li>Business transformation </li></ul><ul><li>Wild Wests </li></ul><ul><li>Individual “MMOGs” dominant </li></ul><ul><li>Virtual vandalism </li></ul><ul><li>Security problems </li></ul><ul><li>Retreat </li></ul><ul><li>Virtual Silos </li></ul><ul><li>Many competing, limited worlds </li></ul><ul><li>Difficult avatar & asset mobility </li></ul><ul><li>Limited scalability </li></ul><ul><li>High security </li></ul><ul><li>New business models </li></ul>Source: Dr. Robin Teigland Stockholm School of Economics
Ethics in the Digital Age Harvard University has engaged in research to uncover ethical issues online. They have outlined five areas of interest: <ul><li>Identity </li></ul><ul><li>The ways people handle and perceive self-expression and identity exploration online. </li></ul><ul><li>Privacy </li></ul><ul><li>How, where and with whom we share personal information online. </li></ul><ul><li>Credibility </li></ul><ul><li>How we establish trustworthiness of both people and information online, and establish our own personal credibility. </li></ul><ul><li>Authorship and Ownership </li></ul><ul><li>The ways we perceive intellectual property and practices such as downloading/remixing content. </li></ul><ul><li>Participation </li></ul><ul><li>The meaning of responsible conduct and citizenship in online communities. </li></ul>
Digital Citizenship and Creative Content Four Factors of Fair Use* Microsoft Digital Citizenship series <ul><li>Purpose </li></ul><ul><li>Nature </li></ul><ul><li>Amount </li></ul><ul><li>Effect </li></ul>
The Children of Cyberspace: Old Fogies by Their 20s <ul><li>Studies show that 16- to 18-year-olds perform seven tasks, on average, in their free time. </li></ul><ul><li>People in their early 20s can handle only six, </li></ul><ul><li>and those in their 30s perform about five and a half. </li></ul>
“ Hello seeker! Now don't feel alone here in the New Age, because there's a seeker born every minute.” Firesign Theatre
“ Who steals my purse steals trash…But he that filches from me my good name …... Makes me poor indeed.” Othello, Act 3 Scene 3
Identity Fraud is at an All Time High According to Javelin Strategy and Research's 2010 Identity Fraud Survey Report
“ You stand a better chance at any given time of loosing your personally identifiable information than you do of just about any other form of nasty thing than can happen to a person over their lifetime .” ~The National Safety Council <ul><li>1 in 146,107,962.00 could potentially win the power ball lottery grand prize </li></ul><ul><li>1 in 3,563,608.83 could potentially win the 200,000 dollar prize in the power ball </li></ul><ul><li>1 in 3000 will be killed by lighting in any given year </li></ul><ul><li>1 in 1,313 chance of being killed by a doctor </li></ul><ul><li>1 in 314 chance of being killed by a firearm </li></ul><ul><li>1 in 84 chance of being killed in a car crash over your lifetime 1 in 3 has had their personally identifiable information lost this year </li></ul>
A new, targeted social media version of a very old scam -- the “Nigerian,” or “419,” ploy
The meteoric rise in social media use has also created a launch pad for identity thieves. <ul><li>“ My prediction for 2010 is that the increase in social networking activity, along with a user’s failure to implement security and privacy settings and protocols, will lead to an increased exposure of not only the user’s personal information but possibly that of their “friends”. </li></ul>Robert Siciliano : CEO of IDTheftSecurity.com http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JwFC0jfxTco http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9LPRaiu0Y8
How did they do that? <ul><li>Because Facebook regularly contacts its users through e-mail, and includes links in those e-mails to login pages, the format is ripe for phishers. It's easy to imitate Facebook e-mails and simply send users clicking to a look-a-like login page that steal passwords. </li></ul>
Privacy Paradox An Oxymoron Young people will freely give up personal information to join social networks on the Internet. Afterwards, they are surprised when their parents read their journals. " There's a big difference between publicly available data and publicized data.” Dr. Dana Boyd, co-author a newly published book: Hanging Out, Messing Around, and Geeking Out: Kids Living and Learning with New Media .
They could accurately predict the full, nine-digit Social Security numbers for 8.5 percent of the people born in the United States between 1989 and 2003 — nearly five million individuals. All they needed was birthdates and city or state of birth. That helped them figure out the first three digits of each Social Security number, which the government had assigned by location. The remaining six digits were related to when the person applied for the number. The researchers used projections about those applications as well as other public data, like the Social Security numbers of dead people, and then ran repeated cycles of statistical correlation and inference to partly re-engineer the government’s number-assignment system.
Social networks put careers at risk Recent Market Research Microsoft http://www.euractiv.com/en/Social-networks-careers-risk <ul><li>US, where 79% of HR experts scan the Web in search of personal information for recruiting purposes. </li></ul><ul><li>23% are rejected outright because of online reputation, outlandish photos and social artifacts. </li></ul><ul><li>Research by Symantec found that the under-25 age group appear to be the least apprehensive about their digital tattoos and have a careless attitude towards the distribution of their personal details. </li></ul>Digital tattoos
Symantic and Sperling’s Best Places 2010 Report Americas Riskiest Cities for Cybercrime <ul><li>"I look at it like driving a car," said Dan Nadir, the director of product management for Symantec. "Your risk of an accident is going to be greater the more you drive. If you're online more, you need to be more cautious, just like the more you're on the road, the more you should wear your seatbelt, have airbags and rotate your tires." </li></ul>
Variables In Study <ul><li>Sins of Commission : risky online activities, including online banking and online shopping. </li></ul><ul><li>Sins of Omission: Also factored into the rankings was the number of free WiFi hotspots per capita. "WiFi is a big concern," acknowledged Nadir, "because it's something most people don't understand, and most don't know who is behind that hotspot, or if it's even legitimate.“ </li></ul><ul><li>What counters the risk? Awareness through education!! </li></ul>
We are all victims! <ul><li>1700 new victims in the course of this meeting. </li></ul><ul><li>By the end of the decade someone in your family will be a victim. </li></ul><ul><li>Lowest estimate of projected damage is $5000. </li></ul><ul><li>Only 1 in 700 is investigated. </li></ul><ul><li>1 year or less in jail. </li></ul><ul><li>70 – 80 % involve illegal dugs </li></ul><ul><li>FBI reports 30,000 computer a week are taken over. </li></ul>
Who is doing this? <ul><li>Small time crooks </li></ul>
Trans- national crime gangs. Russian "Mafiya," Colombian and Mexican drug cartels, Asian Triads, Japanese Yakuza, Nigerian confidence rings, Hell's Angels, rogue factions of the St. Regis Mohawk tribe and the surviving, leaner and meaner Cosa Nostra
Temptation…..Grooming Ref. Number:EGOGHS255125600419 Batch Number: 14/ 01259/ IPD Ticket Number:113-2471-752-209 Serial Number: 5063-11 Attention We are pleased to inform you of the result of the Winners in our UNIVERSAL STAKES Lottery Program held on the 20th JULY, 2004.Your e-mail address attached to ticket number 27522465896-6453 with serial number 3772-554 drew lucky numbers 7-14-18-31-45 which consequently won in the 2ND category, you have therefore been approved for a lump sum pay out of USD$1,500,000 ( One Million Five Hundred Dollars) Only . CONGRATULATIONS!
Three FREE “must have” online tools.. http://www.passwordchart.com/
Any Web site or print ad offering free credit reports has to display this disclosure across the top of each page: THIS NOTICE IS REQUIRED BY LAW. Read more at FTC.GOV. You have the right to a free credit report from A nnualCreditReport.com or 877-322-8228, the ONLY authorized source under federal law. In September 2010 the rules will go into effect for TV and radio ads.