Danone sales q3 2012

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Danone sales q3 2012

  1. 1. Sales Q3 2012October 17th, 2012
  2. 2. DisclaimerThis document contains certain forward-looking statements concerning DANONE. AlthoughDANONE believes its expectations are based on reasonable assumptions, these forward-lookingstatements are subject to numerous risks and uncertainties, which could cause actual results todiffer materially from those anticipated in these forward-looking statements. For a detaileddescription of these risks and uncertainties, please refer to the section “Risk Factors” inDANONE’s Annual Report (which is available on www.danone.com). DANONE undertakes noobligation to publicly update or revise any of these forward-looking statements. This documentdoes not constitute an offer to sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy, Danone shares. 2
  3. 3. Sales growth analysis – Q3 12 +5.0% Like-for-like (1) 3.4% 0.1% 1.6% +9.4% Reported 4.3% € 5,257 mln € 4,805 mln Q3 2011 Currency Scope Volume Value Q3 2012(1) Like-for-like : Based on constant scope of consolidation and constant exchange rates 3
  4. 4. Sales growth analysis – 9M 2012 +5.6% Like-for-like 3.6% +8.3% 0.0% 2.0% Reported 2.7% € 15,733 mln€ 14,532 mln9M 2011 Currency Scope Volume Value 9M 2012 4
  5. 5. Total Group : Q2 sales growth continuing in Q3Like-for-like sales growth 8.5% 8.8% 7.8% 7.8% 6.9% 5.6% 5.9% 5.0% 5.0% FY 11 9M 12 Q1 11 Q2 11 Q3 11 Q4 11 Q1 12 Q2 12 Q3 12 A contrasted quarter again Emerging markets and North America continuing strong Further deterioration in Western Europe, driven by Southern Europe 5
  6. 6. Dual geographical dynamicsLike-for-like sales growth by region 3.7% 4.2% 1.5% 0.9% 0.1% EUROPE -1.0% -1.5% Q1 11 Q2 11 Q3 11 Q4 11 Q1 12 Q2 12 Q3 12 22.0% 20.8% 19.6% 19.4% 18.0% 17.2% 18.3% ASIA Q1 11 Q2 11 Q3 11 Q4 11 Q1 12 Q2 12 Q3 12 14.8% 14.4% 12.6% 12.7% 11.5% 10.7% 10.5%REST OF THE WORLD Q1 11 Q2 11 Q3 11 Q4 11 Q1 12 Q2 12 Q3 12 6
  7. 7. Total Group : Resilient mixVolume and Price/mix growth Volume Growth Price / mix 3.5% 5.7% 4.8% 5.6% 4.7% 4.4% 3.6% 2.9% 3.4% 5.0% 3.0% 3.1% 2.0% 2.2% 2.2% 2.1% 1.6% 1.5% FY 11 9M 12 Q1 11 Q2 11 Q3 11 Q4 11 Q1 12 Q2 12 Q3 12 Soft volume, mix remaining strong 7
  8. 8. Sales performance by division 8
  9. 9. FRESH DAIRY – Further deterioration in EuropeLike-for-like sales growth 6.5% 5.5% 4.6% 3.8% 3.5% 3.0% 2.2% 2.1% 0.7% FY 11 9M 12 Q1 11 Q2 11 Q3 11 Q4 11 Q1 12 Q2 12 Q3 12 CIS and North America : on plan and accelerating vs Q2 Continued outperformance in Latam and Africa Middle East Western Europe deteriorating further, sales decline exceeds 10% in Southern Europe 9
  10. 10. FRESH DAIRY – Volume slightly negativeVolume and Price/mix growth Volume Growth Price / mix 3.6% 5.7% 5.0% 4.7% 4.7% 3.9% 2.9% 2.6% 2.4% 1.4% -0.4% (0.7%) -0.1% (1.5%) (0.1%) (0.3%) (0.2%) (1.7%) FY 11 9M 12 Q1 11 Q2 11 Q3 11 Q4 11 Q1 12 Q2 12 Q3 12 Volume remaining slightly negative, impacted by further deterioration in Europe, while continuing to progress in CIS and North America 10
  11. 11. FRESH DAIRY US Continued share gains globally and on the Greek segment x 2.1 Danone Greek(1) $ sales YTD 2011 YTD 2012 31,9 Total Danone 27,0 Competitor 1 US Value Market shares Source : IRI Multi-Outlet with Walmart 16,3 Competitor 2 8,5 Danone Greek(1) Q4 2011 Q3 2012(1) Dannon + Stonyfield + Light & Fit Greek 11
  12. 12. FRESH DAIRY CIS From integration in 2011 to growth in 2012 2011 priorities 2012 agenda: Activating the key brands IntegrationDrive efficiency to invest behind brands Segment the portfolio Danone-Unimilk CIS % volume growth Q1 11 Q2 11 Q3 11 Q4 11 Q1 12 Q2 12 Q3 12 12
  13. 13. FRESH DAIRY CIS – Leveraging priority brands +12%(1) +19%(1) Tëma Prostokvashino from a Dairy brand for babies New identity since Q2 to a Babyfood brand(1) YTD September 2012 like-for-like growth - CIS 13
  14. 14. FRESH DAIRY – Selected innovations Breakfast Yogurt – Big bottle Velouté Fruix – Kiss cup introduction (Poland) (France)#3 in Europe#25 Worldwide Densia Forte (Spain) Vitalinea PRO (Spain) Danonki Single Cup (Poland) 14
  15. 15. WATERS – Strong performanceLike-for-like sales growth 23.3% 18.9% 16.4% 15.7% 13.3% 12.3% 10.5% 7.9% 4.6% FY 11 9M 12 Q1 11 Q2 11 Q3 11 Q4 11 Q1 12 Q2 12 Q3 12 Continued strong underlying category dynamics Continued outperformance of Emerging markets & Aquadrinks Favourable 2011 comparables in Western Europe, but poor weather in July 15
  16. 16. WATERS – Balanced growthVolume and Price/mix growth Volume Growth Price / mix 13.2% 8.9% 6.9% 2.6% 8.7% 5.2% 6.9% 3.0% 8.8% 10.7% 10.0% 10.1% 5.3% 7.7% 1.5% 4.9% 5.4% 3.1% FY 11 9M 12 Q1 11 Q2 11 Q3 11 Q4 11 Q1 12 Q2 12 Q3 12 Solid volume growth Positive product mix brought by good performance of Western Europe & Aquadrinks 16
  17. 17. WATERS – Selected innovations Bonafont HOD – 11L new PET format Bonafont Kids - Jugo Mango (Mexico) (Mexico)Font Vella – Limited edition Mizone - Multipack new design (Spain) (China) 17
  18. 18. BABY NUTRITION – Continued excellent performanceLike-for-like sales growth 13.6% 11.4% 11.2% 11.4% 11.5% 10.7% 10.5% 9.6% 9.0% FY 11 9M 12 Q1 11 Q2 11 Q3 11 Q4 11 Q1 12 Q2 12 Q3 12 Continued great performance across the board, boosted by Asia China : good acceptance of the renovated Dumex range Positive mix from Milk outperformance vs Food decline 18
  19. 19. CHINA : Renovating Dumex Danone value market shares Modern Trade – Total milks (August 2012) 15.0 14.5 STAGE ENHANCED NUTRITION YTD 2011 YTD 2012 19
  20. 20. BABY NUTRITION – Selected innovationsDumex Mamil PreciNutri Range (Malaysia) Milupa Aptamil Cereal (Turkey) Malyutka Cereals with juices (Russia) Mellin Affordable Format (Italia) 20
  21. 21. MEDICAL NUTRITION – Soft performanceLike-for-like sales growth 9,8% 9,8% 9,4% 9,3% 8,7% 6,4% 6,7% 6,0% 4,9% FY 11 9M 12 Q1 11 Q2 11 Q3 11 Q4 11 Q1 12 Q2 12 Q3 12 Performance hit by deterioration in some European markets China, Turkey & Brazil outperforming 21
  22. 22. MEDICAL NUTRITION – Selected innovationsComplan renovation Souvenaid (UK) Phased introduction in 4 countries • For the dietary management of early Alzheimer’s Disease • For patients under medical supervision Neocate LCP Special Recipe (China) Vanilla Strawberry 22
  23. 23. Balance sheet managementCompleted : repurchase of € 6 mln treasury shares given in payment to ex-minorityshareholders in Danone Spain€ 500-700 mln Share Buy-Back in the next 4 months 23
  24. 24. OUTLOOK 24
  25. 25. 2012 Objectives Objectives 2012 Sales growth (1) 5-7% Trading operating margin(1) -50 bps Free cash flow (2) € 2 bn(1) Like-for-like : Based on constant scope of consolidation and constant exchange rates(2) Free cash flow: Cash flow from operations less capital expenditure (net of disposals) and excluding business combinations fees 25
  26. 26. APPENDIX 26
  27. 27. Impact of currency and scope – Q3 12 Baby Medical Dairy Waters Group Nutrition NutritionReported sales growth +4.5% +17.8% +17.2% +8.4% +9.4%Currency +3.6% +5.1% +5.7% +3.7% +4.3%Scope of consolidation +0.2% +0.4% +0.0% (0.2)% +0.1%Like-for-like sales growth +0.7% +12.3% +11.5% +4.9% +5.0% 27
  28. 28. Impact of currency and scope – 9M 2012 Baby Medical Dairy Waters Group Nutrition NutritionReported sales growth +4.3% +13.4% +15.7% +9.0% +8.3%Currency +2.2% +3.0% +4.3% +2.5% 2.7%Scope of consolidation (0.1)% (0.1)% +0.0% +0.5% +0.0%Like-for-like sales growth +2.2% +10.5% +11.4% +6.0% +5.6% 28
  29. 29. Q3 2012 sales by business & geographical area Like-for-like€ mln Q3 2011 Q3 2012 sales growthFresh Dairy Products 2,785 2,910 +0.7%Waters 816 962 +12.3%Baby Nutrition 906 1,062 +11.5%Medical Nutrition 298 323 +4.9%Europe 2,661 2,682 (1.5)%Asia 740 946 +18.3%Rest of World 1,404 1,629 +10.5%GROUP 4,805 5,257 +5.0% 29
  30. 30. Q3 2012 like-for-like sales growth Breakdown volume/valueLike-for-like Volume Value Total Fresh Dairy Products (0.7)% +1.4% +0.7% Waters +5.4% +6.9% +12.3% Baby Nutrition +3.6% +7.9% +11.5% Medical Nutrition +5.9% (1.0)% +4.9% Europe (2.6)% +1.1% (1.5)% Asia +8.9% +9.4% +18.3% Rest of World +5.0% +5.5% +10.5% GROUP +1.6% +3.4% +5.0% 30
  31. 31. 9M 2012 sales by business & geographical area Like-for-like€ mln 9M 2011 9M 2012 sales growthFresh Dairy Products 8,457 8,816 +2.2%Waters 2,483 2,817 +10.5%Baby Nutrition 2,723 3,152 +11.4%Medical Nutrition 869 948 +6.0%Europe 8,203 8,231 (0.6)%Asia 2,135 2,708 +18.2%Rest of World 4,194 4,794 +11.3%GROUP 14,532 15,733 +5.6% 31
  32. 32. 9M 2012 like-for-like sales growth Breakdown volume/valueLike-for-like Volume Value Total Fresh Dairy Products (0.4)% +2.6% +2.2% Waters +5.3% +5.2% +10.5% Baby Nutrition +4.8% +6.6% +11.4% Medical Nutrition +6.7% (0.7)% +6.0% Europe (2.6)% +2.0% (0.6)% Asia +12.4% +5.8% +18.2% Rest of World +4.4% +6.9% +11.3% GROUP +2.0% +3.6% +5.6% 32
  33. 33. Changes in exchange rates 40% of sales denominated in € 9M 12 9M 12 vs Q3 12 vs % total sales 9M 11 (avg) Q3 11 (avg)Russian Ruble 10% +2% +3%US Dollar 9% +10% +13%Chinese Yuan 6% +13% +14%Indonesian Rupee 6% +3% +2%Mexican Peso 5% +0% +5%British Pound 5% +7% +11%Argentinean Peso 5% +1% +2%Brazilian Real 4% (7)% (9)%Polish Zloty 3% (5)% +0%Canadian Dollar 2% +7% +11%Turkish Lira 2% (1)% +9% 33

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