Eurochambres Economic Survey 2011
Upcoming SlideShare
Loading in...5

Eurochambres Economic Survey 2011



The results of EUROCHAMBRES\' annual economic survey (EES), based on over 70,000 entrepreneurs\' responses from across Europe, indicate that the economic outlook in 2011 is brighter. More than half of ...

The results of EUROCHAMBRES\' annual economic survey (EES), based on over 70,000 entrepreneurs\' responses from across Europe, indicate that the economic outlook in 2011 is brighter. More than half of respondents anticipate that the favourable climate which started in 2010 will continue next year, and 30% believe that it will improve even further.



Total Views
Views on SlideShare
Embed Views



1 Embed 1 1


Upload Details

Uploaded via as Adobe PDF

Usage Rights

© All Rights Reserved

Report content

Flagged as inappropriate Flag as inappropriate
Flag as inappropriate

Select your reason for flagging this presentation as inappropriate.

  • Full Name Full Name Comment goes here.
    Are you sure you want to
    Your message goes here
Post Comment
Edit your comment

Eurochambres Economic Survey 2011 Eurochambres Economic Survey 2011 Document Transcript

  • EUROCHAMBRESEconomic Survey 201118th edition
  • EUROCHAMBRESEconomic Survey 2011 18th edition Foreword . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4 Executive.Summary .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5 Business.Confidence.&.Economic.Indicators. . . . . 9 Business Confidence 10 Total Turnover 11 Domestic Sales 12 Export Sales 13 Employment 14 Investment 15 Participating Regions 16 European.Regions .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .17 Focus.on.Business.Confidence:.. Euro Zone vs Non Euro Zone 30 Candidate Countries 31 Methodology 32 List of Chambers 33 3 EUROCHAMBRES Economic Survey 2011
  • foreword Foreword I am pleased to present the latest edition of EUROCHAM- Europe 2020 frames the EU’s competitiveness agenda for, BRES’ annual Economic Survey EES 2011 comes at a crucial not just the year ahead, but the whole decade This plan juncture, with Europe slowly emerging from the worst eco- must deliver where its predecessor, the Lisbon Strategy, fell nomic crisis since World War II The survey results, based on short To do so, it is critically important that the business over 70 000 responses from across Europe, indicate that, community has a say in its implementation, monitoring while businesses can now see the light, they are not yet and evaluation out of the tunnel It is also vital that the strategic objectives of Europe 2020 EES 2011 underlines that policy makers should remain are supported by adequate financial resources The discus- acutely aware of the business community’s cautious opti- sions on the EU budget and the forthcoming review of mism, tempered by an ongoing sense of uncertainty about longer term financial perspectives will therefore be a lit- the economic outlook The EU institutions and member mus test of the member states’ commitment to a coherent states must thus redouble their efforts to ensure that fa- European approach to delivering jobs and growth Busi- vourable conditions are in place for businesses of all sec- nesses from the Chamber network made their position tors and sizes, that access to European and international clear in more than doubling the current level allocated to markets is increased and that the necessary human, natu- competitiveness actions when setting out their ‘EU Dream ral and financial resources are more readily available Budget’ during the October 2010 European Parliament of Enterprises EUROCHAMBRES will be looking to EU leaders EUROCHAMBRES is convinced that the response to these to demonstrate a similarly strong appetite for reform dur- challenges must be coordinated at EU level Major Europe- ing the months ahead EES 2011 serves to remind all of us an framework initiatives such as the Small Business Act, the of what is at stake Single Market Act and the economic governance package are potentially influential in this process, if strongly sup- Alessandro Barberis ported and effectively implemented by member states EUROCHAMBRES PRESiDEnt Business ConfidenCe expeCtations / read gdp growth 40 4 Real GDP Growth 35 30 3 Business Confidence 25 Business Confidence (Balance Figure) 20 2 15 Real GDP Growth (%) 10 1 5 0 0 -5 -10 -1 -15 -20 -2 -25 -30 -3 -35 -40 -4 -45 -50 -5 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009* 2010* 2011* *European Commision (DGECFIN) Estimates4EUROCHAMBRESEconomic Survey 2011
  • executive summaryExecutive SummaryThe EES 2011 indicates that businesses are confident that Greece, Spain and Croatia are the three countries wherethe worst is behind them and that the economic situa- companies are least positive for 2011 In Greece, two-thirdstion will improve next year Indeed, economic activity has of companies expect worsening business conditions forpicked up better than foreseen throughout 2010, which is the coming year, due to the austerity measures imposedreflected in respondents overall mood of optimism for the by the national government Croatian businesses are notyear ahead sure that the crisis is over for them yetNonetheless, confidence is not yet back to pre-crisis levels, Business confidence decreased the most in Greece, Polandand some uncertainty remains In 2011, more of the spe- and Slovenia; in Slovenia, it is not expected to improvecial public economic crisis measures will come to an end markedly before 2012(some schemes have actually terminated already), and EUgovernments will be obliged to implement the austerity/ Total.turnover forecasts are clearly up, compared to lastfiscal consolidation measures foreseen in the framework of year’s The fragile signs of recovery that the Europeanthe new European economic governance Meanwhile, ac- economy witnessed throughout 2010 are increasing busi-cess to credit for businesses remains restricted nesses’ expectationsAll economic indicators show a clear upturn in forecasts, total turnoverthe biggest progression being noted in export sales ex-pectations This is a logical result, considering that in 2010, 2011thanks in part to a revived demand from emerging econo- 2010mies, European exporters have regained confidence 2009 2008Business. confidence continues its slow recovery Over- 2007all, more than 30% of respondents think that next year’s 2006business climate will improve, while more than half of the 2005respondents consider that it will remain unchanged Ger- 2004many and France are the main positive drivers among the 2003five largest EU economies In Italy and the UK, forecasts are 2002lower than last year, Spanish forecasts improve somewhat, 2001but remain negative 2000 1999Business ConfidenCe -10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 2011 2010 In France, over 40% of businesses expect total turnover to 2009 increase further next year These positive expectations are 2008 fuelled by better domestic and export sales in the current 2007 year In Germany, the situation is similar, with export sales 2006 forecasts dominating While Italian businesses believe that 2005 recovery is underway, UK businesses are more cautious 2004 than the previous year Spanish businesses expect a mod- 2003 erate recovery in 2011 2002 2001 Sweden, Estonia and Poland register the most positive turn- 2000 over forecasts In both Estonia and Poland, about two-thirds 1999 of respondents anticipate higher turnover levels for 2011 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 The only country survey wide where the upswing is not re- flected in positive forecasts is Greece Besides having theSwedish, Estonian and Belgian companies are the most lowest balance figure for total turnover, it also registers theconfident for the coming year survey wide, while Slovak, steepest decreaseLatvian and German businesses witness the highest posi-tive changeover 5 EUROCHAMBRES Economic Survey 2011
  • executive summary On average, across the surveyed countries, domestic.sales German companies are very upbeat about their export forecasts continue recovering slowly, yet participating prospects, and the rapid recovery of Germany is having a countries demonstrate a wide range of differing trends positive influence on many of its neighbouring countries Over half of French respondents expect higher export domestiC sales sales levels next year In the UK, over half of the respond- ents do not anticipate any change for 2011, and there is 2011 great hope that the UK economy will continue to benefit 2010 from the weakness of the pound About two-thirds of Ital- 2009 ian respondents consider that the situation will remain un- 2008 changed in 2011, leading to a weaker balance figure than 2007 last year, while prospects in Spain are much more positive 2006 for 2011 2005 2004 export sales 2003 2002 2011 2001 2010 2000 2009 1999 2008 2007 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 2006 2005 France is the most positive among the big member states 2004 In the UK and Spain, forecasts are slightly improving, yet 2003 the UK balance figure for 2011 remains negative In Italy, 2002 after a weak 2010, two-thirds of respondents believe that 2001 the situation will not change in 2011 2000 1999 Survey wide, Poland, Sweden and Denmark have the high- -10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 est balance figures The three countries, overall, seem to have been less affected by the economic crisis than other EU member states Survey wide, Latvia, Denmark and Portugal have the high- est export sales balance figures Hungary, Slovakia and In Greece, Portugal and Romania, balance figures for do- Germany register the biggest year-on-year increase in ex- mestic sales weaken the most compared to last year’s sur- pectations vey Along the UK, Greece and Romania also have the low- est forecasts for this indicator Businesses in Greece, Estonia and Romania are less con- fident about their export sales prospects, as the balance Having witnessed a positive development in 2010, Turk- figures decrease most markedly year-on-year ish businesses remain upbeat about their domestic sales expectations Domestic demand in Croatia throughout For both participating candidate countries, balance figures 2010 was weak, and companies are cautious in their fore- progress slightly, pointing towards better prospects in casts for 2011 2011 in a somewhat better global environment Based on the survey results, exports are the main driver of The employment balance is positive again, showing signs Europe’s economic recovery, as all participating countries of recovery In 23 out of the 26 participating countries, bal- show positive balance figures The export sales indicator is ance figures are increasing compared to last year’s results also the one that has increased most year-on-year In total, However, this should not mask considerable differences over 40% of respondents expect their exports to increase between the participating countries next year6EUROCHAMBRESEconomic Survey 2011
  • executive summaryemployment 2011 2010 Latvian, Maltese and Polish businesses are most upbeat 2009 about their investment prospects for 2011, while those re- 2008 cording the biggest progression compared to last year can 2007 be found in Germany, Estonia and Latvia 2006 2005 Spain, Greece and Croatia are at the low end of investment 2004 prospects with negative balance figures The latter two, to- 2003 gether with Portugal, also witnessed the sharpest year-on- 2002 year regression in balance figures 2001 2000 Turkish businesses expect an increase in investment ex- 1999 penditure in 2011 Nevertheless, the result remains below the long term average -10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 investmentEmployment forecasts in the larger European economiesare improving, although in Italy and Spain, balance figures 2011remain negative In Germany, unemployment forecasts for 20102011 are much better than before the crisis The value is 2009in fact the lowest since 1991 In both France and the UK, 2008two-thirds of the respondents plan to maintain their cur- 2007rent work force levels next year 2006 2005Among EU member states, Belgian, Estonian and Latvian 2004businesses register the most positive employment fore- 2003casts Estonia, Germany and Sweden witness the biggest 2002progression in balance figures Estonian businesses are up- 2001beat about joining the euro zone next year and anticipate 2000higher employment levels 1999 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45The three countries that have the most negative balancefigures are Greece, Spain and Slovenia, which are still feelingthe consequences of the economic crisis Business.confidence in the euro zone is progressing much more markedly than in the non euro zone Still non euroGreece also has the steepest drop in employment pros- zone countries are overall more optimistic than their europects, together with Croatia and Portugal zone counterparts Also noteworthy is the fact that the 2011 business confidence forecast for the non euro zoneTurkey is the most positive country survey wide in terms of is worse than in all surveys before the 2008 credit crunchemployment prospects The Turkish labour market remainsstrong, which translates into positive forecasts for the com- Businesses in Estonia are highly optimistic about the posi-ing year tive effect of their country’s adhesion to the euro zone next yearThe investment climate is improving and the balance is re-turning to a positive result Overall, half of the respondents Business confidence expectations in the candidate coun-expect the situation to remain the same for 2011, while tries are more positive than in EU member states At theabout 30% of respondents anticipate higher investments same time, while optimism is growing in Turkey, Croatianfor the coming year companies’ business confidence forecasts remain low for 2011, so the gap between the two countries is wideningThe two major euro zone countries, Germany and France,have positive balance figures again Italian businesses arevery optimistic for 2011, as over half of the respondentsforecast an increase in investments, thanks to improveddomestic demand Investment expectations in Spain andthe UK are slowly rising, yet they remain negative 7 EUROCHAMBRES Economic Survey 2011
  • 8EUROCHAMBRESEconomic Survey 2011
  • Business confidence andeconomic indicators 9 EUROCHAMBRES Economic Survey 2011
  • Business confidence Business Confidence The light at the end of the tunnel is getting brighter Business confidence is recovering from its low level in 2010, sequently, businesses are somewhat more optimistic, even and the balance for 2011 is positive again. Overall, more than though over 40% do not anticipate any change next year In 30% think that next year’s business climate will improve, both the UK and Italy businesses are less confident in their while more than half of the respondents consider that it will forecasts than last year In the UK, the lower forecasts are be unchanged. not only the result of the economic crisis but also budget cuts set out by the government Italian businesses 2010 expectations were not met, and they are more cautious in The situation in the major European economies varies con- their 2011 forecasts Italy’s production structure has not yet siderably Germany’s balance figure increases significantly overcome the difficulties that it is currently facing Spanish compared to last year In Germany, the economy is return- forecasts are improving; nevertheless the balance remains ing to solid ground Not only its export industry, but also in- negative Over half of Spanish respondents expect the situ- vestment and consumer-oriented branches have improved ation to be unchanged next year The results continue to significantly throughout 2010 and the trend is set to con- reflect the country’s precarious economic situation tinue next year In France, after two unprecedentedly un- favourable years, the situation stabilised in 2010, and con- Sweden, Belgium and Estonia demonstrate the highest lev- els of business confidence The Belgian economy entered into positive territory again in the second half of 2009 andBusiness ConfidenCe expeCtations* for 2011 Compared to 2010 and 2009 fared rather well throughout 2010, leading to very upbeat*BalanCe figures 2009 2010 2011 confidence forecasts for 2011 The main drivers for the up- swing are export activities and private consumption In -60 -40 -20 0 20 40 60 80 100 Estonia, businesses agree that the worst is over and reso- Sweden lutely believe in a better 2011 Estonia Belgium Slovakia, Latvia and Malta’s business confidence forecasts Latvia for 2011 have increased most when compared to 2010 Malta Turkey The three most negative countries are Greece, Croatia and Bulgaria Spain Greek business confidence is the lowest among Denmark surveyed countries Two-thirds of companies expect a Cyprus further decrease in business development in 2011 The Germany pessimism is evident across sectors, identical for manufac- France turing and services In Croatia, the economic downturn is Austria continuing, but at a slower pace This is partly the result of Portugal somewhat improved foreign demand, which was to some Slovakia extent generated by the slight economic recovery in mostSurvey.average EU countries EU.average Czech Republic Greece, Poland and Slovenia are the three countries withUnited Kingdom the largest year-on-year drop in business confidence In Po-The Netherlands land, most companies do not expect any further improve- Hungary ments in business confidence, while almost 30% expect Italy the situation to deteriorate In Slovenia, business confi- Slovenia dence has not yet returned, and two thirds of respondents Romania believe that the situation will be unchanged next year Finland Poland In Turkey, for almost half of companies, the business cli- Luxembourg mate was much better this year than anticipated last year Spain And they believe that the trend will continue in 2011 The Croatia main reasons for the positive mood are an improved do- Greece mestic business environment, macroeconomic stability and optimistic domestic sales expectations10EUROCHAMBRESEconomic Survey 2011
  • total turnoverTotal Turnover Improving prospectsBusinesses overall anticipate a higher turnover for the coming total turnover expeCtations* for 2011 Compared to 2010 and 2009year. The fragile signs of recovery that the European economy *BalanCe figures 2009 2010 2011witnessed throughout 2010 is spurring businesses expecta-tions upwards. -40 -20 0 20 40 60 80 100 Sweden EstoniaAmong the big European economies, France is the one Polandwith the highest balance figure Total turnover in 2010 Denmarkwent beyond last year’s expectations and over 40% of busi- Belgiumnesses expect it to increase further next year French fore- Latviacasts are fuelled by both better domestic and export sales Cyprusprospects, even if the country still needs a more significant Bulgariaimprovement of its labour market and a stabilisation of the Turkeyeuro at a lower level The situation in Germany is similar, Portugalwhere positive export forecasts dominate Italian compa- Slovakianies believe that recovery is underway and are positive for Sloveniathe coming year, with over 60% predicting a stabilisation Maltaof the situation The Italian manufacturing sector is more Austriapositive than the services one for 2011 In the UK as well, The Netherlandsthe manufacturing sector is expecting better results next Franceyear than the services sector Overall, UK businesses are Survey.averagesomewhat more cautious than the previous year, as the EU.averagebalance figure for 2011 is lower Spanish companies expect Italya moderate recovery in 2011; here too, positive results in United Kingdomindustry exceed those of the services sector Luxembourg Czech RepublicSweden, Estonia and Poland provide the most positive Croatiaforecasts Swedish and Estonian businesses believe that Hungarythe positive trend from 2010 will continue next year, as Spainnearly two-thirds expect higher turnovers in 2011 External Romaniaand domestic demand gradually improved during 2010 in FinlandPoland (except in housing and transport), and two-thirds Germanyof respondents anticipate this to continue GreeceThe Estonian, Bulgarian and Hungarian forecasts for 2011increase most compared to last year In Bulgaria, respon- While the balance figure in Turkey is going up, Croatia’sdents took advantage of the improving global economic balance figure is decreasing In Turkey, thanks to fiscal andclimate in 2010 and expect further progress in the coming monetary measures, domestic demand and economicyear Bulgarian industry, too, is more upbeat than services growth stabilised during 2010 and businesses expect the positive trend to continue in 2011, thanks largely to higherThe only country where the upswing is not reflected in private consumption and investments and decreased in-positive forecasts is Greece Besides having the lowest terest rates In Croatia, last year’s expectations were notbalance figure survey wide for the indicator, it is also the met, and businesses witnessed a significant reduction incountry witnessing the steepest decrease in total turnover consumption on the domestic market and a minor reco-forecasts Portuguese companies are also much more cau- very of exports throughout 2010 Consequently, they aretious in their forecasts for 2011 Nonetheless, half of the less positive about their total turnover forecasts for 2011respondents expect total turnover to improve next year, than they were one year agowith positive expectations being fuelled much more byexport prospects than domestic sales 11 EUROCHAMBRES Economic Survey 2011
  • domestic sales Domestic Sales Recovery is starting On average, across the surveyed countries, the mood contin- nies do not expect their domestic sales levels to change ues recovering slowly. Yet a wide range of differing trends in in 2011 The construction sector recovery remains particu- the different countries can be observed. larly fragile For Italy, expectations for 2011 are worse than last year’s; after a weak 2010, the balance is still on the pos- itive side, yet two-thirds of respondents believe that the Among the big member states, France is the most positive situation will not change in 2011 Last year, most French businesses were hoping to stabilise their domestic sales for 2010 The results this year were Poland, Sweden and Denmark have the highest balance better than expected, and this positive trend continues figures Even though Danish companies’ 2010 expecta- for 2011 The situation in Germany is similar, as domestic tions were not met, they remain very optimistic, with near- sales are recovering faster than expected one year ago ly two-thirds anticipating improved sales levels for 2011 The mood in the UK is improving slightly, yet the balance Polish households regained trust in the national economy for 2011 remains negative, indicating a relatively weak do- during 2010, resulting in higher consumption, and compa- mestic demand Expectations are improving somewhat in nies expect this trend to continue in 2011 In Sweden, hav- Spain, starting from a low level Half of Spanish compa- ing fared quite strongly throughout the economic crisis, the strong consumption climate is fostered by a decrease in interest rates and in employment taxes The three coun-domestiC sales expeCtations* for 2011 Compared to 2010 and 2009 tries were overall less affected by the economic crisis than*BalanCe figures 2009 2010 2011 other EU member states -60 -40 -20 0 20 40 60 80 100 Estonia, Latvia and France indicate the strongest year-on- Poland year progress In both Estonia and Latvia, over half of the Sweden respondents expect increased domestic sales for 2011 Denmark Estonia In Greece, Portugal and Romania, the balance for domes- Cyprus tic sales has weakened the most compared to last year Belgium These countries were particularly affected by the crisis Turkey and have now to adjust to structural economic problems Latvia Greek businesses, having witnessed a bleak 2010, do not France yet believe that a recovery is in sight, with over half of the Bulgaria respondents foreseeing worse sales prospects for 2011 In Austria Romania also, due to the programmed fiscal adjustment Malta and weak labour market, prospects for the coming year are Slovakia negative Portuguese businesses are much more cautious Portugal than in previous surveys, partly no doubt because their Luxembourg expectations for 2010 were not met, but also because theSurvey.average country’s economic situation remains fragile EU.average Croatia Having witnessed a positive development in 2010, Turkish Slovenia businesses remain upbeat about domestic sales expecta- Italy tions Domestic demand in Croatia during 2010 was weak,Czech Republic with borrowing levels low, wages falling and unemploy- Spain ment rising This context is reflected by the fact that com- Finland panies are also cautious in their forecasts for 2011 Hungary RomaniaUnited Kingdom Greece12EUROCHAMBRESEconomic Survey 2011
  • export salesExport Sales High hopes for exportsSurvey results suggest that exports are the main drivers of export sales expeCtations* for 2011 Compared to 2010 and 2009the economic recovery, as all participating countries show *BalanCe figures 2009 2010 2011positive balance figures. The overall balance is higher thanthe 2006 result, yet it remains below the buoyant 2007 and -40 -20 0 20 40 60 80 1002008 forecasts. In total over 40% of respondents expect their Latviaexports to increase next year. Nonetheless, exports are not yet Portugalback to full speed, due to uncertainty about global economic Denmarkdevelopment, linked to the fact that stimulus packages are Austriacoming to an end throughout the world. Slovenia Malta FranceThanks to an upturn in world trade, European exporters Swedenhave witnessed a favourable environment throughout Germany2010, especially in the emerging markets German com- Belgiumpanies are very upbeat about their export prospects The PolandGerman focus on investment goods is particularly advan- Bulgariatageous in the current upswing The rapid recovery of Ger- Spainmany is having a positive influence on many of its neigh- Cyprusbouring countries, the French economy in particular Over Estoniahalf of French respondents expect higher export sales EU.averagelevels next year, leading to a considerable increase of the Survey.averagebalance figure A potential upswing in Spain would stem Hungarymore from exports than from domestic sales, as shown by Turkeythe noticeable increase in export prospects for 2011 There Luxembourgis great hope that the UK economy will continue to ben- Slovakiaefit from the weakness of the pound, and that an export The Netherlandsled recovery is still a reality Based on this, UK businesses Italyare more optimistic than last year and the balance, unlike Greecelast year, is positive Italian businesses have also benefited Czech Republicfrom the positive global environment in 2010, and about United Kingdomtwo-thirds anticipate that this trend will continue in the Croatiacoming year, while about one quarter expect further in- Romaniacreases in export sales FinlandSurvey wide, Latvia, Denmark and Portugal have the high-est balance figures Latvian exporters experienced a good Slovakia are also benefiting from Germany’s growth In the2010 and three-quarters of respondents expect their case of Slovakia, companies expect the export climate toexports to grow further next year Danish exports were improve further in 2011boosted in 2010 by the favourable economic developmentof its main export markets, notably Germany and Sweden, The countries witnessing the largest decrease in exportand two-thirds of respondents expect next year’s climate forecasts are Greece, Romania and Italy Greek exportersto improve further The high expectations of Portuguese adopt a much more cautious attitude after two weak yearsexporters were not met this year, yet they remain optimis- Romanian companies are very cautious in their exporttic about 2011 export sales forecasts for 2011, despite the introduction of new Roma- nian products and services to international marketsHungary, Slovakia and Germany show the biggest increasein balance figures compared to last year In Hungary, ex- Both Croatia and Turkey anticipate a somewhat better glo-port optimism has returned; the balance figure increase is bal environment in 2011, as the balance figures for boththe highest in the survey This result is in stark contrast to countries have increased slightly In Turkey, the strongerlast year, when Hungarian respondents were the most pes- national currency is affecting export sales and there aresimistic Expanding export demand is contributing strong- fears that a further appreciation will have a negative effectly to the country’s economic recovery Both Hungary and in 2011 13 EUROCHAMBRES Economic Survey 2011
  • employment Employment Workforce expected to grow again Employment forecasts are positive again, even though ex- year, as over two-thirds believe that they have enough ca- pectations remain well below those expressed in 2007. Busi- pacity within their existing workforce to respond to any nesses in 23 of 26 countries anticipate an improvement in the increase in demand Even though they have improved, the employment situation overall for 2011, while only 3 countries balance figures for Italy and Spain remain negative The anticipate a worsening. Spanish recovery is proceeding at a sluggish pace, with a substantial increase in unemployment In Italy, employ- ment is forecast to increase slightly in 2011, while unem- The large European economies witness improved employ- ployment is expected to remain stable ment forecasts, yet to greatly varying degrees Thanks to strong growth in 2010 and labour market reforms, the The three member states with the most positive employ- 2011 unemployment forecast in Germany is much better ment forecast for 2011 are Belgium, Estonia and Latvia In than before the crisis, and is actually the lowest value since Estonia, 37% of businesses in the manufacturing sector 1991 In France, unemployment started to ease in 2010 and and 51% of services providers believe that their workforce the employment situation is stabilising Over two-thirds of will increase The positive expectations are motivated by French respondents anticipate that they will maintain their the current sound fiscal policies introduced by the Esto- current workforce level next year In the UK, employment nian government and by euro zone accession in 2011 In prospects are increasing only marginally compared to last Belgium, the forecast for 2011 builds on a positive result in 2010, when 34% of businesses hired new employees, almost twice as many as those scaling back The positiveemployment expeCtations* for 2011 Compared to 2010 and 2009 attitude in Latvia is to be attributed more to the relief that*BalanCe figures 2009 2010 2011 the situation will not worsen further than to expectations of a real upswing in employment levels in 2011 -40 -30 -20 -10 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 Turkey The three countries with the most positive employment Latvia year-on-year increase are Estonia, Germany and Sweden Belgium Employment recovered slightly in Sweden in 2010, and Estonia given the very positive outlook for 2011, businesses pre- Sweden dict a more rapid increase in employment next year Malta Denmark The three countries with the lowest balance figures are Cyprus Greece, Slovenia and Spain Slovenian businesses express a Poland very cautious attitude, taking into account the unfavoura- Bulgaria ble economic conditions Greek businesses do not believe Austria that they hit the bottom in 2010 in terms of employment France losses The negative balance for 2011 indicates thatThe Netherlands Luxembourg Greece, Croatia and Portugal are the countries with the Slovakia most negative year-on-year trend While Portuguese com- Germany panies were exceedingly confident last year in their fore-Survey.average casts for 2010, the reality throughout the year has been far EU.average less positive, and almost 70% of respondents now antici-United Kingdom pate the situation to remain the same in 2011 In Croatia, Portugal unemployment continued to rise in 2010, while the Hungary number of employed people dropped to the lowest level Finland for four years The fact that over two-thirds of businesses Croatia anticipate retaining their existing workforce next year can Italy thus be interpreted positively Czech Republic Romania The Turkish labour market remains strong and its overall Spain performance is quite positive Results show that Turkish Slovenia companies witnessed higher employment levels in 2010 Greece than anticipated the year before, and they foresee that the14 trend will continue in 2011EUROCHAMBRESEconomic Survey 2011
  • investmentInvestment Businesses are ready to invest againThe investment climate is improving and the balance has investment expeCtations* for 2011 Compared to 2010 and 2009returned to a positive result. In 2010, the investment climate *BalanCe figures 2009 2010 2011was cautious, as anticipated at the end of last year, with overhalf of respondents indicating constant levels. Overall, half of -40 -20 0 20 40 60 80 100the respondents also forecast constant investment levels for Latvianext year, while about 30% anticipate higher investments. MaltaCompared to the 2009 and 2010 forecasts, this clearly points Polandto 2011 as a decisive year in Europe’s economic recovery. Italy Estonia TurkeyThe two major euro zone economies, Gemany and France, Belgiumhave positive balance figures again In Germany, the in- Swedencrease can be explained thanks to high foreign and do- Slovakiamestic demand for German products and companies’ con- Bulgariafidence in their increased competiveness In France, the Denmarkgradual investment recovery that started in 2010 is set to Sloveniacontinue next year, with over half of the respondents an- Cyprusticipating constant investment levels, and more than one- Germanyquarter forecasting an increase The fact that financing Hungaryconditions in France have eased due to the fall in interest Survey.averagerates is highlighted as a key factor EU.average FranceItalian businesses are very optimistic for 2011, as over half Luxembourgof the respondents forecast an increase in investments, Portugalthanks to improved domestic demand Investment ex- The Netherlandspectations in Spain and the UK are slowly progressing, yet Romaniathey remain negative In Spain, bank lending conditions Finlandcontinue to be tight and uncertainties about the sustain- Austriaability of the recovery persist In the UK, there is increas- United Kingdoming evidence that there is enough spare capacity in the UK Czech Republiceconomy to respond to an increase in demand This would Spainexplain the “wait and see” attitude of many UK businesses Croatiatowards investments GreeceInvestment forecast balances are most positive in Latvia,Malta and Poland In Poland, companies are increasing their Investment levels are mostly influenced by domestic andproduction capacities in response to growing demand This foreign demand, revenues and the availability and price ofrelates however more to exporters It is noteworthy that capital In Croatia, none of these factors is positively influ-even investors with a good financial standing prefer to en- encing investment forecasts In Greece, the balance for in-gage their own resources rather than to take a bank loan vestment has significantly decreased compared to that ofIn Latvia, the situation is due to a positive trend in exports, 2010, mainly due to the current economic situationa gradual increase in private consumption, improved busi-ness confidence and stabilisation of the labour market In Turkey, almost half of the Turkish businesses expect an increase in investment levels for 2011 Businesses’ ten-The biggest positive year-on-year change is in Germany, dency to invest is growing, but still below its long-termEstonia and Latvia averageThe three countries with the lowest balance figures areSpain, Greece, and Croatia The latter two are also regress-ing most, together with Portugal 15 EUROCHAMBRES Economic Survey 2011
  • list of regionsParticipating Regions95. participating. regions. in. EURO- •. GERMANY.(DE) •. PORTUGAL.(PT)CHAMBRES.Economic.Survey.2011 Baden-Württemberg (DE1) •. ROMANIA.(RO) Bayern (DE2) Macroregiunea Unu (RO1)Each region has its own code (be- Berlin (DE3) Macroregiunea Doi (RO2)tween brackets), which is used for Brandenburg (DE4) Macroregiunea Trei (RO3)identification in the maps located in Bremen (DE5) Macroregiunea Patru (RO4)the part “European Regions” Hamburg (DE6) Hessen (DE7) •. SLOVAKIA.(SK)NUTS1 regional classification is used Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (DE8) •. SLOVENIA.(SI)for most countries with the exception Niedersachsen (DE9)of Spain, which uses NUTS2 Some Nordrhein-Westfalen (DEA) •. SPAIN.(ES)participating countries are treated as Rheinland-Pfalz (DEB) Galicia (ES11)one single region Saarland (DEC) Asturias (ES12) Sachsen (DED) Cantabria (ES13) Sachsen-Anhalt (DEE) País Vasco (ES21)•. AUSTRIA.(AT) Schleswig-Holstein (DEF) Navarra (ES22) East (AT1) Thüringen (DEG) La Rioja (ES23) South (AT2) Aragón (ES24) •. GREECE.(GR) West (AT3) Madrid (ES3) •. HUNGARY.(HU) Castilla y León (ES41)•. BELGIUM.(BE) Közép-Magyarország (HU1) Castilla-La Mancha (ES42) Brussels Capital (BE1) Dunántúl (HU2) Extremadura (ES43) Flanders (BE2) Alföld és Észak (HU3) Cataluña (ES51) Wallonia (BE3) C Valenciana (ES52) •. IRELAND.(IE)•. BULGARIA.(BG) Baleares (ES53) •. ITALY.(IT) Andalucía (ES61)•. CROATIA.(HR) Nord Ovest (ITC) Murcia (ES62)•. CYPRUS.(CY) Nord Est (ITD) Ceuta (ES63) Centro (ITE) Canarias (ES7)•. CZECH.REPUBLIC.(CZ) Sud (ITF) •. SWEDEN.(SE)•. DENMARK.(DK) Isole (ITG) Östra Sverige (SE1)•. ESTONIA.(EE) •. LATVIA.(LV) Södra Sverige (SE2) Norra Sverige (SE3)•. FINLAND.(FI) •. LITHUANIA.(LT) •. TURKEY.(TR)•. FRANCE.(FR) •. LUXEMBOURG.(LU) Île-de-France (FR1) •. UNITED.KINGDOM.(UK) •. MALTA.(MT) Bassin parisien (FR2) North East (UKC) Nord (FR3) •. THE.NETHERLANDS.(NL) North West (UKD) Est (FR4) North (NL1) Yorkshire & Humberside (UKE) Ouest (FR5) East (NL2) East Midlands (UKF) Sud Ouest (FR6) West (NL3) West Midlands (UKG) Centre Est (FR7) South (NL4) East of England (UKH) Méditerranée (FR8) London (UKI) •. POLAND.(PL) South East (UKJ) Centralny South West (UKK) Poludniowy Wales (UKL) Wschodni Scotland (UKM) Pólnocno-Zachodni Northern Ireland (UKN) Poludniowo-Zachodni Pólnocny16EUROCHAMBRESEconomic Survey 2011
  • european regions 17 EUROCHAMBRES Economic Survey 2011
  • Business Confidence for 2011 eU coUntry % SE Sweden 72 9 21 5 56 EE Estonia 59 3 33 3 74 LV Latvia 58 0 31 0 11 0 BE Belgium 56 6 34 3 91 BG Bulgaria 53 4 27 9 18 7 TR Turkey 51 0 37 0 12 0 MT Malta 49 0 43 0 80 PT Portugal 48 9 22 3 28 8 DK Denmark 46 0 40 4 13 5 CY Cyprus 44 0 43 7 12 3 FR France 41 7 43 5 14 8 UK United Kingdom 39 8 30 4 30 0 AT Austria 38 2 46 1 15 7 RO Romania 36 4 31 2 32 4 CZ Czech Republic 35 8 38 8 25 3 SK Slovakia 35 1 47 4 17 5 . Survey.average. 34 3. 46 7. 18 9 . EU.average. 33 7. 47 2. 19 1 DE Germany 33 0 56 0 11 0 PL Poland 27 7 43 6 28 7 HU Hungary 27 5 52 3 20 2 IT Italy 23 8 59 6 16 6 HR Croatia 22 7 37 8 39 5 LU Luxembourg 20 2 57 2 22 6 SI Slovenia 19 6 66 7 13 7 NL The Netherlands 19 0 71 0 10 0 ES Spain 17 0 52 0 31 0 GR Greece 72 28 4 64 418EUROCHAMBRESEconomic Survey 2011
  • Business confidence for 2011 55 to 100% 40 to 55% 20 to 40% 0 to 20% negative percentage no data availableNet balance figures obtained bydeducting the percentage of com-panies giving a negative answerfrom the percentage of companiesresponding positively 19 EUROCHAMBRES Economic Survey 2011
  • Total Turnover for 2011 eU coUntry % PL Poland 66 7 23 3 10 0 SE Sweden 65 7 26 8 75 EE Estonia 64 6 28 5 69 LV Latvia 63 0 25 0 12 0 DK Denmark 62 8 29 8 74 BE Belgium 61 2 31 1 78 CY Cyprus 56 2 30 6 13 2 SK Slovakia 55 7 25 8 18 5 PT Portugal 55 4 26 6 18 0 BG Bulgaria 53 2 36 0 10 8 AT Austria 51 7 33 3 15 0 SI Slovenia 50 6 35 9 13 5 UK United Kingdom 47 2 29 2 24 0 MT Malta 47 0 43 0 10 0 TR Turkey 47 0 46 0 70 FR France 46 2 42 3 11 5 NL The Netherlands 44 0 47 0 90 . Survey.average. 43 5. 41 3. 15 2 . EU.average. 43 4. 41 1. 15 6 CZ Czech Republic 40 3 34 9 24 8 HR Croatia 39 4 36 4 24 2 LU Luxembourg 34 9 52 3 12 8 RO Romania 34 1 35 8 30 1 HU Hungary 32 2 45 4 22 4 IT Italy 31 1 61 6 74 ES Spain 30 0 47 0 23 0 GR Greece 15 4 33 4 51 2 DE Germany 00 00 0020EUROCHAMBRESEconomic Survey 2011
  • total turnover for 2011 55 to 100% 40 to 55% 20 to 40% 0 to 20% negative percentage no data availableNet balance figures obtained bydeducting the percentage of com-panies giving a negative answerfrom the percentage of companiesresponding positively 21 EUROCHAMBRES Economic Survey 2011
  • Domestic Sales for 2011 eU coUntry % PL Poland 63 2 26 5 10 4 SE Sweden 59 3 33 6 71 DK Denmark 58 9 33 4 76 CY Cyprus 57 3 29 9 12 8 EE Estonia 54 4 39 2 64 LV Latvia 52 0 36 0 12 0 BE Belgium 51 9 38 0 10 1 FR France 50 0 38 8 11 2 TR Turkey 48 0 45 0 70 AT Austria 47 8 37 5 14 6 BG Bulgaria 46 6 41 8 11 6 PT Portugal 44 0 35 1 20 9 SK Slovakia 43 3 37 1 19 6 MT Malta 41 0 49 0 10 0 . Survey.average. 36 9. 44 8. 18 4 . EU.average. 36 3. 44 8. 18 9 HR Croatia 35 3 37 4 27 3 CZ Czech Republic 34 3 36 7 28 9 LU Luxembourg 34 0 53 4 12 5 RO Romania 32 3 32 6 35 1 UK United Kingdom 27 4 41 9 31 0 SI Slovenia 26 9 53 2 19 9 ES Spain 26 0 50 0 24 0 HU Hungary 23 9 51 4 24 7 IT Italy 19 9 66 7 13 4 GR Greece 12 7 31 9 55 4 DE Germany NL The Netherlands22EUROCHAMBRESEconomic Survey 2011
  • domestic sales for 2011 55 to 100% 40 to 55% 20 to 40% 0 to 20% negative percentage no data availableNet balance figures obtained bydeducting the percentage of com-panies giving a negative answerfrom the percentage of companiesresponding positively 23 EUROCHAMBRES Economic Survey 2011
  • Export Sales for 2011 eU coUntry % LV Latvia 74 0 22 0 40 DK Denmark 63 5 30 0 64 PT Portugal 62 8 31 9 53 AT Austria 55 7 34 3 99 SI Slovenia 53 3 35 8 10 9 FR France 52 3 35 8 11 9 MT Malta 50 0 42 0 80 SE Sweden 49 0 41 3 97 BG Bulgaria 47 5 40 5 12 1 SK Slovakia 47 4 30 9 21 7 PL Poland 45 2 46 5 83 CY Cyprus 45 1 44 6 10 3 ES Spain 45 0 45 0 10 0 DE Germany 44 0 49 0 70 BE Belgium 43 9 49 2 69 . EU.average. 41 0. 48 1. 10 8 HU Hungary 41 0 46 6 12 4 . Survey.average. 40 8. 48 4. 10 8 GR Greece 40 6 36 3 23 1 EE Estonia 38 5 55 5 60 LU Luxembourg 38 4 49 0 12 5 TR Turkey 36 0 55 0 90 CZ Czech Republic 33 3 47 7 18 9 NL The Netherlands 31 0 61 0 80 RO Romania 29 5 44 5 26 1 IT Italy 26 9 65 3 78 UK United Kingdom 26 6 54 3 19 0 HR Croatia 25 7 53 8 20 424EUROCHAMBRESEconomic Survey 2011
  • export sales for 2011 55 to 100% 40 to 55% 20 to 40% 0 to 20% negative percentage no data availableNet balance figures obtained bydeducting the percentage of com-panies giving a negative answerfrom the percentage of companiesresponding positively 25 EUROCHAMBRES Economic Survey 2011
  • Employment for 2011 eU coUntry % TR Turkey 45 0 48 0 70 LV Latvia 37 0 55 0 80 SE Sweden 36 8 52 9 10 3 BE Belgium 36 3 55 7 80 PL Poland 35 1 49 9 15 0 CY Cyprus 33 4 55 1 11 5 DK Denmark 32 8 58 7 85 EE Estonia 32 6 62 0 53 MT Malta 31 0 64 0 50 AT Austria 30 2 53 3 16 5 BG Bulgaria 28 1 61 5 10 5 SK Slovakia 25 8 56 7 17 5 FR France 23 1 67 2 96 NL The Netherlands 23 0 64 0 13 0 RO Romania 21 3 50 2 28 5 . Survey.average. 20 2. 66 5. 13 4 . EU.average. 19 2. 67 2. 13 6 UK United Kingdom 19 1 67 4 14 0 DE Germany 19 0 69 0 12 0 LU Luxembourg 18 7 70 9 10 4 HU Hungary 18 1 64 6 17 3 PT Portugal 18 0 69 1 12 9 CZ Czech Republic 16 8 60 3 22 9 SI Slovenia 15 9 55 4 28 7 HR Croatia 14 9 68 4 16 6 ES Spain 14 0 62 0 24 0 GR Greece 66 56 1 37 3 IT Italy 41 86 2 9726EUROCHAMBRESEconomic Survey 2011
  • employment for 2011 55 to 100% 40 to 55% 20 to 40% 0 to 20% negative percentage no data availableNet balance figures obtained bydeducting the percentage of com-panies giving a negative answerfrom the percentage of companiesresponding positively 27 EUROCHAMBRES Economic Survey 2011
  • Investment for 2011 eU coUntry % IT Italy 55 4 21 1 23 5 LV Latvia 47 0 43 0 10 0 PO Poland 46 7 40 1 13 2 SK Slovakia 44 3 35 1 20 6 MT Malta 42 0 50 0 80 TR Turkey 42 0 46 0 12 0 EE Estonia 40 1 50 3 96 BE Belgium 40 1 48 4 11 5 BG Bulgaria 37 2 46 8 16 0 SE Sweden 37 2 50 2 12 6 SI Slovenia 36 3 42 0 21 7 CY Cyprus 31 4 51 6 17 0 DK Denmark 31 4 56 0 12 6 RO Romania 30 2 42 1 27 7 . Survey.average. 30 2. 50 5. 19 4 . EU.average. 29 8. 50 7. 19 6 HU Hungary 29 6 52 8 17 6 DE Germany 29 0 56 0 15 0 FR France 27 2 55 0 17 9 PT Portugal 25 7 55 7 18 6 CZ Czech Republic 25 6 41 8 32 6 LU Luxembourg 22 7 63 1 14 2 NL The Netherlands 22 0 63 0 15 0 AT Austria 21 6 56 2 22 2 HR Croatia 20 8 41 1 38 1 ES Spain 17 0 54 0 29 0 UK United Kingdom 17 0 62 2 21 0 GR Greece 13 5 48 6 37 928EUROCHAMBRESEconomic Survey 2011
  • investment for 2011 55 to 100% 40 to 55% 20 to 40% 0 to 20% negative percentage no data availableNet balance figures obtained bydeducting the percentage of com-panies giving a negative answerfrom the percentage of companiesresponding positively 29 EUROCHAMBRES Economic Survey 2011
  • focus on Business confidence Focus on Business Confidence euro Zone vs non euro Zone 31.0% 42.0% Business confidence for 2011 is growing; more than 40% of 17.2% 25.1% non euro zone companies are positive about the develop- euro Zone non euro Zone ment of business confidence, as are one-third of the euro average average zone respondents Only 17% of the companies from the euro zone and 25% of those from the non euro zone fore- 51.8% 32.8% cast a decrease in business confidence for 2011 The balance for the non euro zone is similar to that forecasteuro Zone last year, while in the euro zone the balance has increased significantly Business confidence is traditionally higher in Belgium non euro zone countries This gap has been decreasing sig- Malta nificantly over the last two years after slight declines in the Portugal years before the crisis Cyprus France In the non euro zone, the 2011 expectations for business Austria confidence are worse than in all surveys before the credit Slovakia crunch in 2008 On the other hand, the Euro area results are Germany more optimistic expectations than expressed in forecasts for 2002, 2003, 2005 and 2006 Italy Luxembourg The most positive countries in the euro zone are Belgium, Slovenia Malta and Cyprus The most optimistic countries concern- The Netherlands ing business confidence from the non euro zone are Swe- Spain den, Latvia and Estonia Estonia, which is about to join euro Greece zone in 2011, is especially optimistic 60% of Estonian com- 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% panies forecast an increase in business confidence Companies from only three euro zone countries indicatenon euro Zone low levels of business confidence in 2011 In Greece and Spain, balance forecasts are negative, whereas in Lux- Sweden embourg the share of respondents expecting a decrease Estonia is only 2% points higher than those who forecast an in- Latvia crease In the countries of the non euro zone, the majority Bulgaria of companies is optimistic about business confidence in Denmark 2011, apart from Poland where companies expecting increase/decrease are more or less in equilibrium United Kingdom Romania Expectations among companies in the major economies of Czech Republic the euro zone vary Respondents from France and Germa- Poland ny are more positive in their forecasts than in recent years, Hungary while companies in the United Kingdom, Italy and Spain 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% are far more pessimistic than in 2010 Favourable Constant Unfavourable30EUROCHAMBRESEconomic Survey 2011
  • focus on Business confidenceCandidate Countries 33.7% 48.4%Business confidence expectations in the candidate countries 19.1% 14.6%are more positive than in EU member states At the sametime, while optimism is growing in Turkey, Croatian compa- eu member accessionnies’ business confidence remains low for 2011 This means states Candidatesthat the gap between Turkey and Croatia is widening 47.1% 37.1%Almost half of the companies in the candidate countriesexpect a positive business development in 2011, while thefigure decreases to one-third of respondents in the Euro- eu memBer statespean Union In Turkey, 51% of the respondents anticipateimproved business conditions in 2011 Sweden EstoniaThe Turkish recovery was fuelled by an increase in house- Latviahold consumption and private investment As a result, Tur- Belgiumkey is back on track after recession Like all other emerging Bulgariamarket economies, the Turkish economy was tested by the Maltaglobal turmoil and has proven its strength and resilience PortugalHowever, Turkey not only recovered quickly from the crisis Denmarkbut was also able to sustain a significantly higher rate of Cyprusgrowth All signs now indicate that the economy has re- Francebounded quickly and is headed towards renewed growth United Kingdomand an improving fiscal balance Austria RomaniaThe resilience of the Turkish corporate and financial sec- Czech Republictors has turned out to be a considerable asset in manag- Slovakiaing the recent crisis In particular, a better than expected EU.averagerecovery in economic activity, upgrades from credit rating Germanyagencies, easing political uncertainty with the comple- Polandtion of a referendum process, and the signal given by the Hungaryupdated Medium Term Program that the fiscal discipline Italywould be maintained, have all contributed to Turkey’s rela- Luxembourgtively better performance Slovenia The NetherlandsThe stable and sound structure of the financial system in SpainTurkey is the main element which enhances the resilience Greeceof the economy against the global crisis Turkey’s banking 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%system demonstrates a much stronger structure thanks tothe legal regulations implemented in the past few years aCCession CandidatesRecovery in domestic demand is more stable and has be-come widespread The increase in wages alongside em- Turkeyployment growth has been supporting the recovery in Accession. .private consumption demand Candidates.average Croatia 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%In Croatia almost 40% of companies expect an unfavour-able business development next year Due to a severe dropin private consumption and investments during the crisis, Favourable Constant Unfavourableall sectors were affected Recovery is slowest in the con-struction sector which was affected by the recession some-what later than other industries the recovery in foreign demand and the favourable climateForthcoming state investments in the energy and trans- concerning EU accession, should however contribute toport sectors, water management and tourism, along with improving the mood throughout 2011 31 EUROCHAMBRES Economic Survey 2011
  • methodology Methodology About the Survey EUROCHAMBRES’ Economic Survey is an annual, qualita- companies responded Data have been aggregated at re- tive regional survey of business expectations in Europe gional level, with 95 European regions included The 2011 The survey is implemented by the European Chambers survey is the eighteenth edition of this yearly report More of Commerce and Industry and co-ordinated by EURO- detailed analyses of each of the participating countries CHAMBRES It is based on a harmonised questionnaire can be found in the “National Reports” published on EURO- sent to entrepreneurs from 24 EU member states as well as CHAMBRES’ website: www eurochambres eu Croatia and Turkey during the autumn 2010 Over 70 500 Organisation and Methodology Regional Chambers of Commerce and Industry through- In most countries, all regions participated in the survey In out Austria, Belgium, Bulgaria, Croatia, Cyprus, the Czech some smaller states, the country as a whole was regarded as Republic, Denmark, Estonia, France, Germany, Greece, “a region” The regional results have then been centralised in Hungary, Italy, Latvia, Luxembourg, Malta, the Netherlands, each country, a national weighted aggregate was calculated Poland, Portugal, Romania, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain, Swe- and extensive comments on the results were prepared Sub- den, Turkey, and the United Kingdom have posed compa- sequently, EUROCHAMBRES brought the national reports nies a set of 12 questions on their past, current and short and regional data together, and prepared a European report term business expectations (total turnover, domestic sales, on the main trends resulting from the survey export sales, employment, investment and business confi- dence) Entrepreneurs were asked to give a qualitative re- National and European results presented in the analysis sponse, i e “better than the previous year”, “the same as the were weighted according to national GDPs Also, when previous year” or “worse than the previous year” Responses calculating averages or other aggregates (euro zone coun- from entrepreneurs were collected and aggregated using tries, survey average etc ), GDP was used for weighting random and representative sampling techniques, thereby Statistical methodologies used in the national surveys all guaranteeing representativity by size, sector and region ensure reliable results A more detailed description of the methodology for each country is included in the National Reports that are available on EUROCHAMBRES’ website: www eurochambres eu Guidance when reading maps, graphs and tables In.“Executive.Summary”.and.. In.“European.Regions” “Business.Confidence.and.Economic.Indicators” • The tables in the section “European regions”, show “per- • The graphs in the “Executive Summary” and “Business centage shares” of the total number of responses given Confidence and Economic Indicators” of the analysis to a question They reflect the percentage of compa- show ‘balance figures’ These are obtained by deduct- nies that answered positively to a question (increase), ing the percentage of companies giving a negative negatively (decrease) or opted for a neutral answer (un- response from the percentage of companies giving a changed) Please note that they do not show “balance positive response, thereby obtaining the “net response” figures” as is the case in the “Executive Summary” and • Blanks in graphs reflect the absence of data for some “Business Confidence and Economic Indicators” countries and/or years, or reflect a score of zero • The maps in the section “European regions” indicate the regional ranking across the surveyed zone, based on the “balance figures” obtained from the percentage shares of the total number of responses given to a question • Blanks in tables reflect the absence of data for some countries or regions32EUROCHAMBRESEconomic Survey 2011
  • list of chamBersList of Chambers•. AUSTRIA. •. GERMANY. •. POLAND. Claudia Huber Dirk Schlotböller Katarzyna Grzejszczyk +43 5 90 900 4243 +49 30203081504 +48 22 630 96 28 claudia huber@wko at schlotboeller dirk@berlin dihk de kgrzejszczyk@kig pl•. BELGIUM. •. GREECE. Marcin Wróbel Wouter Van Gluck Vassilis Apostolopoulos +48 22 630 96 28 +32 2 209 05 61 +30 210 3387104-6 •. PORTUGAL. wvangulck@cci be vassapost@uhc gr Joao Mendes de Almeida Giromini Antonio •. HUNGARY. +351 2132 24054 +32 2 209 05 50 Ágnes Czibik jma@acl org pt agiromini@cci be +36 1 235 0584 •. ROMANIA.•. BULGARIA. agnes czibik@gvi hu Gela Rotaru Olga Chugunska •. ITALY. +4021 319 01 69 +359 02 8117 411 Domenico Mauriello gela rotaru@ccir ro ikan@bcci bg +39 06 4704513 Tanasoiu Cristian Tsvetan Simeonov domenico mauriello@unioncamere it +40 21 3190155 +359 2 987 78 26 Francesca Luccerini dpc@ccir ro simeonov@bcci bg +39 06 4704511 •. SLOVAKIA.•. CROATIA. francesca luccerini@unioncamere it Darina Knapiková Jasna Belosevic Matic •. LATVIA. +421 2 54131136 +385 1 4828 373 Katrina Antonova darina knapikova@scci sk jbelosevic@hgk hr +371 67225595 •. SLOVENIA.•. CYPRUS. katrina antonova@chamber lv Darja Močnik Leonidas Paschalides •. LITHUANIA. +386 1 5898 170 +357 22 889 840 Agne Juskeviciute darja mocnik@gzs si leonidap@ccci org cy +370 5 26 12 102 •. SPAIN. Lia Riri agne juskeviciute@chambers lt Lesile Bravo +357 22 889 720 •. LUXEMBOURG. +34 91 5906903 lia@ccci org cy Christel Chatelain leslie bravo@cscamaras es•. CZECH.REPUBLIC +352 42 39 39 - 358 Consuelo Carazo Petr Valenta christel chatelain@cc lu +34 91 5906903 +420 266 721 417 Carlo Thelen consuelo carazo@cscamaras es valenta@komora cz +352 42 39 39 - 351 Juan José de Lucio•. DENMARK carlo thelen@cc lu +34 91 590 6903 Mira Lie Nielsen •. MALTA. juan delucio@cscamaras es +45 3374 6000 Andre Fenech •. SWEDEN. mln@danskerhverv dk +356 21 233 873 Karolina Krön•. ESTONIA andre fenech@maltachamber org mt +46 8555 100 15 Koidu Mölderson •. THE.NETHERLANDS. karolina kron@chamber se +372 604 0060 John Sloof •. TURKEY. koidu molderson@koda ee +31 70 314 3406 Cagri Gurgur•. FRANCE. john sloof@kvk nl +90 312 413 8054 Mickaël Le Priol cagri gurgur@tobb org tr +33 1 55 65 70 91 •. UNITED.KINGDOM. mlepriol@ccip fr Steve Hughes +44 20 7654 5811 s hughes@britishchambers org uk 33 EUROCHAMBRES Economic Survey 2011
  • editorial committee Editorial Committee Birgit Arens – EUROCHAMBRES Alena Vlacihova – Czech Chamber of Commerce Dirk Schlotböller – Deutscher Industrie- und Handelskammertag e V34EUROCHAMBRESEconomic Survey 2011
  • Printed on FSc certified paper design and production: www.inextremis.beEUROCHAMBRESThe Association of European Chambers of Commerce and IndustryChamber HouseAvenue des Arts 19A/DB – 1000 BrusselsBelgiumTel: +32 2 282 08 50Fax: +32 2 230 00