Kegley Chapter 3


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  • In presidential government systems, the head of government is the chief executive officer of the executive branch. In the United States, the president is the head of government. In Great Britain, Japan, Spain, Sweden and Canada, the prime minister serves as the head of government.
  • Pentagon Papers: the name for a series of top-secret documents prepared by the U.S. Department of Defense regarding U.S. involvement in Vietnam. In 1971, the documents were leaked to the New York Times, and led to a series of protests, political controversies and lawsuits, culminating in Supreme Court rulings regarding First Amendment issues.
  • In Great Britain (and most other countries), bureaucratic departments are known as ministries.
  • Standard operating procedures are the hallmark of bureaucracies, from the military to intelligence-gathering operations.
  • The tendency for groupthink is one of the reasons organizations (including governments) tend to favor continuity over change. In some cases, disagreeing with the leader has negative consequences for individuals, leading to reduced access and influence. In extreme cases (such as the Stalin regime), it leads to imprisonment, exile or execution.
  • During the Cold War, the United States interpreted a variety of Soviet actions as proof of aggressive expansion plans, particularly the installation of pro-Soviet governments in Poland, Czechoslovakia and East Germany.
  • The lessons of Vietnam still resonate in U.S. elections and policymaking. However, decision-makers are uneven in their use of history, and often disagree about its lessons.
  • Satisficing: the tendency for decision makers to choose the first satisfactory option, rather than searching for a better alternative
  • The Bush Doctrine in the early 2000s is an example of the history-making individuals model of policy decision making.
  • The European Union and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) have both worked to promote democracy throughout Europe, in hopes of expanding the zone of peace. Generally speaking, they have been successful, as both organizations continue to grow.
  • In 1898, public opinion forced the United States into the Spanish-American War, as Americans blamed Spanish forces for destroying the U.S. Battleship Maine, harbored in Cuba, and demanded retribution. Recently, how has public opinion influenced the course of war in Iraq?
  • The mass media are those sources directed at the broadest groups in society, including large-circulation newspapers, news magazines, television shows and radio programs. The influence and range of Internet media sources are more difficult to measure.
  • The World Bank’s Worldwide Governance Indicators ranks countries by the level of freedom citizens have to voice opinions and choose their government. Liberal democratic theory predicts that as freedom across countries increases, so will peaceful relations among these democracies.
  • Kegley Chapter 3

    1. 1. Chapter 3: Foreign Policy Decision Making<br />
    2. 2. Copyright 2010 Cengage Learning<br />Transnational Actors<br />Countries<br />International organizations<br />Multinational corporations<br />Nongovernmental organizations<br />Indigenous nationalities<br />Terrorist networks<br />Individuals <br />2<br />
    3. 3. Copyright 2010 Cengage Learning<br />Foreign Policy Analysis <br />Bureaucracies<br />Decision-making in organizations<br />Psychological characteristics of leaders <br />3<br />
    4. 4. Copyright 2010 Cengage Learning<br />Most Foreign Policy Analysis Centers on the Executive Branch<br />The head of government is responsible for making policy<br />The country needs to have a single voice abroad<br />Heads of government tend to make foreign policy because they control the executive branch of government<br />4<br />
    5. 5. Copyright 2010 Cengage Learning<br />Legislatures and Courts in Foreign Policy <br />The “power of the purse”<br />Courts’ jurisdiction generally limited to domestic affairs <br />“Pentagon Papers” 1971<br />5<br />
    6. 6. Copyright 2010 Cengage Learning<br />The Rational Action Model <br />A logical attempt to achieve an identifiable goal<br />Calculates costs and benefits<br />What goal does this policy serve?<br />6<br />
    7. 7. Copyright 2010 Cengage Learning<br />Expected Utility Theory <br />Payoffs and profitability<br />Does not seek optimum solution, but the policy with best ratio of payoff/probability<br />7<br />
    8. 8. Copyright 2010 Cengage Learning<br />Bureaucracies in Foreign Policies <br />Department of State and Department of Defense <br />CIA and NSA<br />Different bureaucracies have distinct, and often competing, interests. <br />8<br />
    9. 9. Copyright 2010 Cengage Learning<br />The Organizational Process Model <br />9<br />Procedures influence decision content<br />Standard operating procedures<br />Efficiency is goal, difficulties when dealing with unique situations<br />
    10. 10. Copyright 2010 Cengage Learning<br />Small Group Decision Making <br />Groupthink<br />May be caused by need for consensus<br />10<br />
    11. 11. Copyright 2010 Cengage Learning<br />Individual Decision Making <br />Perception and misperception <br />Motivated and unmotivated bias<br />Bounded rationality <br />11<br />
    12. 12. Copyright 2010 Cengage Learning<br />Attribution Theory <br />Fundamental Attribution Bias<br />Naïve scientists<br />Pre-existing beliefs<br />Security dilemma <br />12<br />
    13. 13. Copyright 2010 Cengage Learning<br />Historical Lessons<br />The Lessons of Munich<br />The Lessons of Vietnam<br />Future Lessons of Iraq? <br />13<br />
    14. 14. Copyright 2010 Cengage Learning<br />Other Theories of Decision-Making<br />Prospect Theory<br />Status quo Bias <br />Motivated Bias <br />Cognitive Dissonance <br />Bolstering <br />Two-level games<br />Satisficing<br />14<br />
    15. 15. Copyright 2010 Cengage Learning<br />A “Funnel Vision” of the Influences on International Decision Making<br />15<br />
    16. 16. Copyright 2010 Cengage Learning<br />Policy Making as Rational Choice<br />Problem recognition and definition<br />Goal selection<br />Identification of alternatives<br />Choice<br />Associated with realist/state as unitary actor<br />1962 Cuban Missile Crisis<br />2003 Iraq War<br />16<br />
    17. 17. Copyright 2010 Cengage Learning<br />Factors Affecting Leadership Capacity<br />Personality<br />Degree of control over foreign policy<br />Sense of political efficacy<br />Amount of available information<br />Ability to deal with crises<br />“Great person” versus zeitgeist debate <br />17<br />
    18. 18. Copyright 2010 Cengage Learning<br />Influences on Foreign Policy Choice <br />International <br />Polarity and polarization<br />Geographic position<br />Domestic<br />Military capabilities<br />Economic conditions<br />Type of government<br />18<br />
    19. 19. Copyright 2010 Cengage Learning<br />Democratic Peace Theory <br />Asserts that democracies are more peaceful than other states.<br />Ironically, could provide a rationale for war, because a war that instills a democracy could reduce the chances of war in the long run. <br />19<br />
    20. 20. Copyright 2010 Cengage Learning<br />Two Versions <br />The Simple Democratic Peace Model <br />The Dyadic View <br />Structural argument<br />Normative argument <br />Institutional argument<br />20<br />
    21. 21. Copyright 2010 Cengage Learning<br />Zone of Peace <br />European Union (EU)<br />North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) <br />21<br />
    22. 22. Copyright 2010 Cengage Learning<br />Interest Groups in Foreign Policy <br />What do they want? <br />Money, protection, policy<br />How do they influence foreign policy? <br />Votes, money, lobbyists<br />To what extent do interest groups drive foreign policy? <br />Very influential in the U.S., varies in other states<br />22<br />
    23. 23. Copyright 2010 Cengage Learning<br />Public Opinion <br />What does public opinion look like? <br />What effect should public opinion have on policy? <br />What effect does public opinion have on foreign policy?<br />What influences public opinion on foreign policy? <br />23<br />
    24. 24. Copyright 2010 Cengage Learning<br />The Media in Foreign Policy <br />The businesses aspect of journalism<br />Efforts to influence media coverage <br />Media power: “the CNN effect” <br />24<br />
    25. 25. Copyright 2010 Cengage Learning<br />Three Models of Influence <br />Rational action model<br />Bureaucratic politics model<br />Organizational process model<br />25<br />
    26. 26. Copyright 2010 Cengage Learning<br />Geographic Influence on Foreign Policy<br />26<br />
    27. 27. Copyright 2010 Cengage Learning<br />How Free is Your Country?<br />27<br />