The Purple Perspective: The 2012 Election

The Purple Perspective: The 2012 Election September, 2011 Doug Usher, Ph.D. Managing Director, Purple Insights 1 815 Slaters Lane Alexandria, VA 22314 | 703.548.7877 | www.purplestrategies.com

What is The Purple Perspective?Unbiased, data-driven analysis of the political environmentthat helps our clients prepare for the future.Key metrics put in proper historical context to offer realinsight, not just the latest spin from either side.Updated regularly to provide the latest take on currentpolitical conditions. 2

Overview Obama faces substantial headwinds going into the 2012 campaignStructural economic factors are driving a sour national moodPolling indicators are at critical levels compared to other incumbentsNonetheless, it remains too early for predictions: Numbers have changed dramatically in past re-election campaigns The GOP brand is not strong Obama is likely to have a 9 figure financial advantage 3

What to watch… and not watch.Watch: Fundraising numbers, including related Super PACs Monthly job numbers Obama job ratings at the national and state levelsAvoid: Daily reports from the campaign trail Early head-to-head match-ups at either the state or national level 4

By nearly every key metric, Obama is at a disadvantage compared toother incumbentsMetric Implications for IncumbentSTRUCTURALGrowth Rate in GDPUnemployment RateAverage Monthly Job CreationOPINIONPresidential ApprovalParty FavorabilitySatisfaction with Direction Of The CountryCurrent State of EconomyProspective Evaluation of EconomyPersonal Financial Situation Last YearExpected Financial Situation Next YearTOTAL

GDP growth is middling compared to others at this point Growth Rate in GDP (Through Second Quarter, Year 3) Reagan 9.3% Bush II 3.4% Bush I 2.7% Obama 1.0% Clinton 0.9% Carter 0.4%Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis 6

There has been wide variance in GDP growth in election years Growth Rate in GDP (2005 Dollars) 20% 15% Economic Growth Rate 10% 5% 0% Carter Reagan Bush I -‐5% Clinton Bush II Obama -‐10% 1/2 2/2 3/2 4/2 1/3 2/3 3/3 4/3 1/4 2/4 3/4 4/4 Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis Quarter/Year in term 7

2011 unemployment puts Obama in a weak position Unemployment Rate (July, Year 3) Carter 5.7% Clinton 5.7% Bush II 6.2% Bush I 6.8% Obama 9.1% Reagan 9.4%Source: Bureau of Labor StaKsKcs 8

Reagan saw dramatic improvements in unemployment during his re-election Unemployment Rate 11% Carter Reagan Bush I 10% Clinton Unemployment Rate Bush II 9% Obama 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 1/3 2/3 3/3 4/3 5/3 6/3 7/3 8/3 9/3 10/3 11/3 12/3 1/4 2/4 3/4 4/4 5/4 6/4 7/4 8/4 9/4 10/4 11/4 Source: Bureau of Labor StaKsKcs Month/Year in term 9

Monthly job creation is particularly troublesome Average Monthly Job Creation (Through July, Year 3) Carter 315 Clinton 253 Bush I 44 Reagan -16 Bush II -85 Obama -103Source: Bureau of Labor StaKsKcs 10

Reagan’s spike in job creation during the election year buoyed him 1200 Average Monthly Job CreaKon Carter 1000 Reagan Bush I Clinton 800 Bush II Jobs Created, In Thousands Obama 600 400 200 0 -‐200 -‐400 -‐600 1/3 2/3 3/3 4/3 5/3 6/3 7/3 8/3 9/3 10/3 11/3 12/3 1/4 2/4 3/4 4/4 5/4 6/4 7/4 8/4 9/4 10/4 11/4 Source: Bureau of Labor StaKsKcs Month/Year in term 11

Obama’s job approval hovers at the low end for incumbents at this pointDo you approve or disapprove of theway _____ is handling his job as % Saying Approvepresident? (August, Year 3) Bush I 69% Bush II 60% Clinton 45% Reagan 43% Obama 38% Carter 32%Source: Gallup 12

50% appears to be a key demarcation line Do you approve or disapprove of the way _____ is handling his job as president? 90% Job Approval 80% 70% % Approving 60% 50% 40% 30% Carter Reagan 20% Bush I Clinton 10% Bush II Obama 0% 1/3 2/3 3/3 4/3 5/3 6/3 7/3 8/3 9/3 10/3 11/3 12/3 1/4 2/4 3/4 4/4 5/4 6/4 7/4 8/4 9/4 10/4 11/4 Month/Year in term 13 Source: Gallup

At the same time, the Republican brand is damaged The Democratic The Republican Party Party 47% 33% Favorable Unfavorable 47% 59% NET 0 -26Source: CNN/Opinion Research CorporaKon 14

Satisfaction with the country’s direction is very low In general, are you saKsﬁed or dissaKsﬁed with the way things are going in the United States at this Kme? % Saying Satisfied (August, Year 3) Bush II 46% Bush I 43% Clinton 32% Obama 11% Reagan --Source: Gallup 15

Watching the trend over time will be critical In general, are you saKsfied or dissaKsfied with the way things are going in the United States at this Kme? 60% SaKsfacKon with Ways Things Are Going in the US 50% % Saying SaKsfied 40% 30% 20% Bush I 10% Clinton Bush II Obama 0% 1/3 2/3 3/3 4/3 5/3 6/3 7/3 8/3 9/3 10/3 11/3 12/3 1/4 2/4 3/4 4/4 5/4 6/4 7/4 8/4 9/4 10/4 11/4 Source: Gallup Month/Year in term 16

Positive evaluations of the economy are low How would you rate economic condiKons in this country today -‐-‐ as excellent, good, only % Saying fair, or poor? Excellent or Good (August, Year 3) Bush II 25% Obama 8% Clinton -- Bush I -- Reagan --Source: Gallup 17

Recent winning incumbents have seen upswings How would you rate economic condiKons in this country today -‐-‐ as excellent, good, only fair, or poor? 50% Current State of the Economy 45% Bush I 40% Clinton % Saying Excellent/Good Bush II 35% Obama 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% 1/3 2/3 3/3 4/3 5/3 6/3 7/3 8/3 9/3 10/3 11/3 12/3 1/4 2/4 3/4 4/4 5/4 6/4 7/4 8/4 9/4 10/4 11/4 Source: Gallup Month/Year in term 18

Voters are slightly more optimistic about the direction of the economy thanunder Bush Sr. and Clinton at this point Do you think the naKonal economy is geZng be[er, staying the same, or geZng worse? % Saying Better (August, Year 3) Reagan 50% Bush II 26% Obama 21% Bush I 17% Clinton 15% Source: American Research Associates *Pre-‐May 2011 quesKon wording: For each item I name, please tell me if it’s geZng BETTER, geZng WORSE, or staying about the same. How about [ITEM]? Is that geZng MUCH be[er/worse or SOMEWHAT be[er/worse? The naKonal economy (Washington Post) 19

However, Obama’s trend is in the wrong direction Do you think the naKonal economy is geZng be[er, staying the same, or geZng worse? 60% Reagan ProspecKve Economic EvaluaKon Bush I Clinton 50% Bush II Obama % Saying GeRng BeTer 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 1/3 2/3 3/3 4/3 5/3 6/3 7/3 8/3 9/3 10/3 11/3 12/3 1/4 2/4 3/4 4/4 5/4 6/4 7/4 8/4 9/4 10/4 11/4 Source: American Research Associates Month/Year in term *Pre-‐May 2011 quesKon wording: For each item I name, please tell me if it’s geZng BETTER, geZng WORSE, or staying about the same. How about [ITEM]? Is that 20 geZng MUCH be[er/worse or SOMEWHAT be[er/worse? The naKonal economy (Washington Post)

Retrospective evaluations of the economy are at lows for an incumbent Would you say that you (and your family living there) are be[er off or worse off financially than you were a year ago? % Saying Better (Dec., Year 2) Clinton 45% Bush II 41% Bush I 37% Reagan 36% Obama 23%Source: Thomson Reuters and The University of Michigan poll *August Year 3 data available for previous presidents; December Year 2 available for Obama 21

There is not an upward trend going into 2012 Would you say that you (and your family living there) are be[er off or worse off financially than you were a year ago? 60% Financial SituaKon Last Year 50% % Saying BeTer Last Year 40% 30% 20% Reagan 10% Bush I Clinton Bush II Obama 0% 1/1 3/1 5/1 7/1 9/1 11/1 1/2 3/2 5/2 7/2 9/2 11/2 1/3 3/3 5/3 7/3 9/3 11/3 1/4 3/4 5/4 7/4 9/4 11/4 Month/Year in term Source: Thomson Reuters and The University of Michigan 22

There is little optimism about potential economic improvement A year from now, do you expect the financial situaKon in your household to be be[er than it is today, the same as it is today, or worse than it is % Saying Better (August, Year 3) today? Reagan 37% Bush I 37% Clinton 37% Bush II 36% Obama 25% Source: American Research Group *Pre-‐2011 quesKon wording: Now looking ahead-‐-‐do you think that a year from now you (and your family living there) will be be[er off financially, or worse off, or just about the same as now? (Thomson Reuters and The University of Michigan) 23

There has been a down-tick in the most recent data A year from now, do you expect the financial situaKon in your household to be be[er than it is today, the same as it is today, or worse than it is today? 60% Financial SituaKon Next Year 50% % Saying BeTer Next Year 40% 30% 20% Reagan Bush I 10% Clinton Bush II Obama 0% 1/1 3/1 5/1 7/1 9/1 11/1 1/2 3/2 5/2 7/2 9/2 11/2 1/3 3/3 5/3 7/3 9/3 11/3 1/4 3/4 5/4 7/4 9/4 11/4 Month/Year in term Source: American Research Group *Pre-‐2011 quesKon wording: Now looking ahead-‐-‐do you think that a year from now you (and your family living there) will be be[er off financially, or worse off, or just about the same as now? (Thomson Reuters and The University of Michigan) 24

Summary, September 2011Metric Implications for IncumbentSTRUCTURALGrowth Rate in GDPUnemployment RateAverage Monthly Job CreationOPINIONPresidential ApprovalParty FavorabilitySatisfaction with Direction Of The CountryCurrent State of EconomyProspective Evaluation of EconomyPersonal Financial Situation Last YearExpected Financial Situation Next YearTOTAL

Future Purple Perspectives will include…Electoral calculationsFocus on Purple StatesParty prospects in Congress 26

The Purple Perspective: The 2012 Election

by Purple Strategies on Aug 30, 2011

Accessibility

Categories

Tags

Upload Details

Usage Rights

1 Embed 627

Statistics

The Purple Perspective: The 2012 Election — Presentation Transcript