Purple Perspective: The 2012 Election (January 2012 Edition)

The Purple Perspective: The 2012 Election January 2012 Doug Usher, Ph.D. Managing Director, Purple Insights 815 Slaters Lane Alexandria, VA 22314 | 703.548.7877 | www.purplestrategies.com

What is The Purple Perspective?Unbiased, data-driven analysis of the political environmentthat helps our clients prepare for the future.Key metrics put in proper historical context to offer realinsight, not just the latest spin from either side.Updated regularly to provide the latest take on currentpolitical conditions. Created by Purple Insights. Please contact Doug Usher at doug.usher@purplestrategies.com or 703-‐548-‐7877 for more informaCon.

Overview Key measures have improved since August, with positive trendlines At the same time, Obama still lags other Presidential incumbentsDespite recent economic improvements, the sour national mood continuesKey factors to watch in coming months: Can Obama continue the positive trends? Economic reports – the economy remains central to this campaign The speed with which the GOP chooses a nominee Fundraising numbers for Obama and the GOP Created by Purple Insights. Please contact Doug Usher at doug.usher@purplestrategies.com or 703-‐548-‐7877 for more informaCon.

By most key metrics, Obama is at a disadvantage comparedto other incumbents, but current trends are mostly positiveMetric Implications for Short term Incumbent change: impact onSTRUCTURAL re-election Growth Rate in GDP + Growth Rate in Disposable Personal Income n/c Unemployment Rate ++ Average Monthly Job Creation ++ OPINIONPresidential Job Approval + Satisfaction with Direction of the Country n/c Current State of the Economy n/c Prospective Evaluation of the Economy ++ Personal Financial Situation Compared to Last Year n/c Expected Financial Situation Next Year + Consumer Sentiment + TOTAL + Created by Purple Insights. Please contact Doug Usher at doug.usher@purplestrategies.com or 703-‐548-‐7877 for more informaCon.

GDP growth for Obama is much slower than for recentsuccessful incumbents Growth Rate in GDP (Third Quarter, Year 3) Reagan 8.1% Bush II 6.7% Clinton 3.4% Carter 2.9% Obama 1.8% Bush I 1.7%Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis Created by Purple Insights. Please contact Doug Usher at doug.usher@purplestrategies.com or 703-‐548-‐7877 for more informaCon.

GDP growth is on a slight upward trend, but remains low Growth Rate in GDP 20% Carter Reagan Economic Growth Rate (2005 Dollars) Bush I 15% Clinton Bush II Obama 10% 5% 0% -‐5% -‐10% 1/2 2/2 3/2 4/2 1/3 2/3 3/3 4/3 1/4 2/4 3/4 4/4 Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis Quarter/Year in term Created by Purple Insights. Please contact Doug Usher at doug.usher@purplestrategies.com or 703-‐548-‐7877 for more informaCon.

Whether the third quarter increase in GDP will find its way intovoters’ pockets remains to be seen % Change in Disposable Personal Income (Third Quarter, Year 3) Reagan 6.1 Bush II 5.7 Clinton 3.0 Carter 2.3 Bush I 0.8 Obama -1.9 Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis Created by Purple Insights. Please contact Doug Usher at doug.usher@purplestrategies.com or 703-‐548-‐7877 for more informaCon.

Disposable income has been declining consistently Carter Disposable Personal Income 13% Reagan % Change in Disposable Personal Income Bush I Clinton Bush II Obama 8% (2005 Dollars) 3% -‐2% -‐7% 1/2 2/2 3/2 4/2 1/3 2/3 3/3 4/3 1/4 2/4 3/4 4/4 Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis Quarter/Year in term Created by Purple Insights. Please contact Doug Usher at doug.usher@purplestrategies.com or 703-‐548-‐7877 for more informaCon.

Unemployment continues to put Obama in a poor position, thoughother incumbents have recovered Unemployment Rate (December Year 3) Clinton 5.6% Bush II 5.7% Carter 6.0% Bush I 7.3% Reagan 8.3% Obama 8.5% Source: Bureau of Labor StaCsCcs Created by Purple Insights. Please contact Doug Usher at doug.usher@purplestrategies.com or 703-‐548-‐7877 for more informaCon.

The unemployment rate is on a short-term trend that is similar to Reagan’s Unemployment Rate 11% Carter Reagan Bush I 10% Clinton Unemployment Rate Bush II 9% Obama 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 1/3 2/3 3/3 4/3 5/3 6/3 7/3 8/3 9/3 10/3 11/3 12/3 1/4 2/4 3/4 4/4 5/4 6/4 7/4 8/4 9/4 10/4 11/4 Source: Bureau of Labor StaCsCcs Month/Year in term Created by Purple Insights. Please contact Doug Usher at doug.usher@purplestrategies.com or 703-‐548-‐7877 for more informaCon.

Job creation since the 2010 midterms is steady, though notremarkable Average Monthly Job Creation (Midterm Elections through December Year 3) (In Thousands) Reagan 237 Clinton 203 Carter 194 Obama 135 Bush II -4 Bush I -76Source: Bureau of Labor StaCsCcs Created by Purple Insights. Please contact Doug Usher at doug.usher@purplestrategies.com or 703-‐548-‐7877 for more informaCon.

Improved monthly reports could help buoy Obama 1200 Monthly Job CreaIon Carter 1000 Reagan Bush I Clinton 800 Bush II Jobs Created (In Thousands) Obama 600 400 200 0 -‐200 -‐400 -‐600 1/3 2/3 3/3 4/3 5/3 6/3 7/3 8/3 9/3 10/3 11/3 12/3 1/4 2/4 3/4 4/4 5/4 6/4 7/4 8/4 9/4 10/4 11/4 Source: Bureau of Labor StaCsCcs Month/Year in term Created by Purple Insights. Please contact Doug Usher at doug.usher@purplestrategies.com or 703-‐548-‐7877 for more informaCon.

Obama’s job approval is at the low end for all incumbents at thispoint in his term Do you approve or disapprove of the way _____ is handling his job as president? % Saying Approve (January Year 4) Bush II 56% Carter 55% Reagan 53% Clinton 47% Obama 46% Bush I 45% Source: Gallup Created by Purple Insights. Please contact Doug Usher at doug.usher@purplestrategies.com or 703-‐548-‐7877 for more informaCon.

50% appears to be a key demarcation line, and Obama remains below it but has a positive trend Do you approve or disapprove of the way _____ is handling his job as president? 90% Job Approval 80% 70% % Approving 60% 50% 40% 30% Carter Reagan 20% Bush I Clinton 10% Bush II Obama 0% 1/3 2/3 3/3 4/3 5/3 6/3 7/3 8/3 9/3 10/3 11/3 12/3 1/4 2/4 3/4 4/4 5/4 6/4 7/4 8/4 9/4 10/4 11/4 Source: Gallup Month/Year in term Created by Purple Insights. Please contact Doug Usher at doug.usher@purplestrategies.com or 703-‐548-‐7877 for more informaCon.

Satisfaction with the country’s direction is extremely low In general, are you saCsﬁed or dissaCsﬁed with the way things are going in the United States at this Cme? % Saying Satisfied (November Year 3) Bush II 44% Bush I 32% Clinton 30% Obama 12% Reagan -- Source: Gallup Created by Purple Insights. Please contact Doug Usher at doug.usher@purplestrategies.com or 703-‐548-‐7877 for more informaCon.

There has been slight improvement in overall satisfaction in thepast few months In general, are you saCsfied or dissaCsfied with the way things are going in the United States at this Cme? 60% SaIsfacIon with Way Things Are Going in the US 50% % Saying SaIsfied 40% 30% 20% Bush I 10% Clinton Bush II Obama 0% 1/3 2/3 3/3 4/3 5/3 6/3 7/3 8/3 9/3 10/3 11/3 12/3 1/4 2/4 3/4 4/4 5/4 6/4 7/4 8/4 9/4 10/4 11/4 Source: Gallup Month/Year in term Created by Purple Insights. Please contact Doug Usher at doug.usher@purplestrategies.com or 703-‐548-‐7877 for more informaCon.

Few offer positive evaluations of the economy How would you rate economic condiCons in this country today -‐-‐ as excellent, good, only % Saying fair, or poor? Excellent or Good (January Year 4) Bush II 40% Clinton 29% Bush I 12% Obama 11% Reagan -- Source: Gallup Created by Purple Insights. Please contact Doug Usher at doug.usher@purplestrategies.com or 703-‐548-‐7877 for more informaCon.

Recent winning incumbents have seen substantial upswings inelection years How would you rate economic condiCons in this country today -‐-‐ as excellent, good, only fair, or poor? 50% Current State of the Economy 45% Bush I 40% Clinton % Saying Excellent/Good Bush II 35% Obama 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% 1/3 2/3 3/3 4/3 5/3 6/3 7/3 8/3 9/3 10/3 11/3 12/3 1/4 2/4 3/4 4/4 5/4 6/4 7/4 8/4 9/4 10/4 11/4 Source: Gallup Month/Year in term Created by Purple Insights. Please contact Doug Usher at doug.usher@purplestrategies.com or 703-‐548-‐7877 for more informaCon.

Just a quarter see an improving economy, though Obama ispositioned alongside other successful incumbents Do you think the naConal economy is geng % Saying Better be]er, staying the same, or geng worse? (December Year 3) Reagan 46% Bush II 35% Obama 27% Clinton 16% Bush I 5% Source: American Research Group *Pre-‐May 2011 quesCon wording: For each item I name, please tell me if it’s geng BETTER, geng WORSE, or staying about the same. How about [ITEM]? Is that geng MUCH be]er/worse or SOMEWHAT be]er/worse? The naConal economy. (Washington Post) Created by Purple Insights. Please contact Doug Usher at doug.usher@purplestrategies.com or 703-‐548-‐7877 for more informaCon.

There has been a recent, sharp increase in positive belief aboutthe economy Do you think the naConal economy is geng be]er, staying the same, or geng worse? 60% ProspecIve Economic EvaluaIon Reagan Bush I 50% Clinton Bush II % Saying GeQng BeSer 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 1/3 2/3 3/3 4/3 5/3 6/3 7/3 8/3 9/3 10/3 11/3 12/3 1/4 2/4 3/4 4/4 5/4 6/4 7/4 8/4 9/4 10/4 11/4 Month/Year in term Source: American Research Group *Pre-‐May 2011 quesCon wording: For each item I name, please tell me if it’s geng BETTER, geng WORSE, or staying about the same. How about [ITEM]? Is that geng MUCH be]er/worse or SOMEWHAT be]er/worse? The naConal economy. (Washington Post) Created by Purple Insights. Please contact Doug Usher at doug.usher@purplestrategies.com or 703-‐548-‐7877 for more informaCon.

Retrospective evaluations of personal finances are at lows foran incumbent Would you say that you (and your family living there) are be]er off or worse off financially than you were a year ago? % Saying Better (June Year 3*) Bush II 47% Reagan 42% Clinton 40% Bush I 30% Obama 28% Source: Thomson Reuters and The University of Michigan poll *January Year 4 data are displayed for previous presidents; June Year 3 data is the most recently available for Obama. Created by Purple Insights. Please contact Doug Usher at doug.usher@purplestrategies.com or 703-‐548-‐7877 for more informaCon.

At the same time, the trend is positive for Obama Would you say that you (and your family living there) are be]er off or worse off financially than you were a year ago? 60% Financial SituaIon Compared to Last Year % Saying BeSer than Last Year 50% 40% 30% 20% Reagan Bush I 10% Clinton Bush II Obama 0% 1/1 3/1 5/1 7/1 9/1 11/1 1/2 3/2 5/2 7/2 9/2 11/2 1/3 3/3 5/3 7/3 9/3 11/3 1/4 3/4 5/4 7/4 9/4 11/4 Month/Year in term Source: Thomson Reuters and The University of Michigan Created by Purple Insights. Please contact Doug Usher at doug.usher@purplestrategies.com or 703-‐548-‐7877 for more informaCon.

There is little optimism about potential economic improvementA year from now, do you expect the financial situaCon in your household to be be]er than it is today, the same as it is today, or worse than it is today? % Saying Better (December Year 3) Clinton 37% Bush II 37% Reagan 35% Bush I 31% Obama 23% Source: American Research Group *Pre-‐2011 quesCon wording: Now looking ahead-‐-‐do you think that a year from now you (and your family living there) will be be]er off financially, or worse off, or just about the same as now? (Thomson Reuters and The University of Michigan) Created by Purple Insights. Please contact Doug Usher at doug.usher@purplestrategies.com or 703-‐548-‐7877 for more informaCon.

Yet this measure is also improving A year from now, do you expect the financial situaCon in your household to be be]er than it is today, the same as it is today, or worse than it is today? 60% Financial SituaIon Next Year 50% % Saying BeSer Next Year 40% 30% 20% Reagan Bush I 10% Clinton Bush II Obama 0% 1/3 2/3 3/3 4/3 5/3 6/3 7/3 8/3 9/3 10/3 11/3 12/3 1/4 2/4 3/4 4/4 5/4 6/4 7/4 8/4 9/4 10/4 11/4 Source: American Research Group Month/Year in term *Pre-‐2011 quesCon wording: Now looking ahead-‐-‐do you think that a year from now you (and your family living there) will be be]er off financially, or worse off, or just about the same as now? (Thomson Reuters and The University of Michigan) Created by Purple Insights. Please contact Doug Usher at doug.usher@purplestrategies.com or 703-‐548-‐7877 for more informaCon.

Incumbents who won re-election enjoyed consumer confidencemuch higher than Obama The Consumer SenCment Index is comprised of various measures of Americans’ feelings of personal ﬁnancial security and views of the Index Score economy. (December Year 3) Reagan 94.2 Bush II 92.6 Clinton 91.0 Obama 69.9 Bush I 68.2 Source: Thomson Reuters and The University of Michigan Created by Purple Insights. Please contact Doug Usher at doug.usher@purplestrategies.com or 703-‐548-‐7877 for more informaCon.

Obama will need to maintain the current trend to bring himclose to other successful incumbents Consumer SenIment Da y El ecCon r 100 Dec embeConsumer SenIment Index Score 80 60 40 Reagan Bush I 20 Clinton Bush II Obama 0 1/3 2/3 3/3 4/3 5/3 6/3 7/3 8/3 9/3 10/3 11/3 12/3 1/4 2/4 3/4 4/4 5/4 6/4 7/4 8/4 9/4 10/4 11/4 Source: Thomson Reuters and The University of Michigan Month/Year in term Created by Purple Insights. Please contact Doug Usher at doug.usher@purplestrategies.com or 703-‐548-‐7877 for more informaCon.

Overview Key measures have improved since August, with positive trendlines At the same time, Obama still lags other Presidential incumbentsDespite recent economic improvements, the sour national mood continuesKey factors to watch in coming months: Can Obama conCnue the posiCve trends? Economic reports – the economy remains central to this campaign The speed with which the GOP chooses a nominee Fundraising numbers for Obama and the GOP Created by Purple Insights. Please contact Doug Usher at doug.usher@purplestrategies.com or 703-‐548-‐7877 for more informaCon.

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Purple Perspective: The 2012 Election (January 2012 Edition)

by Purple Strategies on Jan 09, 2012

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