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Tim Shipton, PresidentCanada U.S Trade RelationsAEG President Tim ShiptonOctober 4, 2012Ports to Plains Conference, Medici...
About Alberta Enterprise Group•   Established in 2007•   Group of business leaders came together to contribute to economic...
The 2012 Canada U.S Trade Dynamic•   The Canada-U.S trade relationship is the most successful and prosperous    in the wor...
The origins of a Canadian-built car
Snapshot of the U.S. Economy – mixedsignals•   U.S housing prices starting to rebound, but it’s not a straight up trajecto...
Snapshot of the Canadian Economy –Modest but stable growth•   Canada’s third quarter GDP growth stronger than expected•   ...
Canada – USTrade Trends2000 peak year for tradeFree Trade Deal 25 yearsoldCanada and US pursuingother bilateral trade deal...
Current Trade State of Play•   Keystone XL•   Softwood Lumber•   Prescription drugs•   Immigration and labour mobility•   ...
4 Strategies in shifting environment                 Peter Bono, The Lawyers Weekly
Embrace trade, reject protectionism• FDI – US to CAD       • Jobs, jobs, jobs• Pre-free trade: $76   • Technology  billion...
Leverage through Diversification• Canada a price taker, not maker• Brent – WTI spread bad economics• Energy is gateway to ...
Coalitions• Complexity of economic, political and  trade issues necessitate new ways of  thinking• Established institution...
Politics vs. Facts
Conclusion• CAD-US trade foundational piece of  economy• Relationship evolving due to global  economic realities• Still be...
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Exploring Opportunities and Barriers to Greater Trade and Prosperity between Canada and the United States - Tim Shipton

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Exploring Opportunities and Barriers to Greater Trade and Prosperity between Canada and the United States
An overview of the current state of play in trade between the two countries - what is working, where there are barriers, the role of politics in trade, and the importance of cross-border coalition building - along with recommendations as to where we go from here.
Tim Shipton, President, Alberta Enterprise Group

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Transcript of "Exploring Opportunities and Barriers to Greater Trade and Prosperity between Canada and the United States - Tim Shipton"

  1. 1. Tim Shipton, PresidentCanada U.S Trade RelationsAEG President Tim ShiptonOctober 4, 2012Ports to Plains Conference, Medicine Hat
  2. 2. About Alberta Enterprise Group• Established in 2007• Group of business leaders came together to contribute to economic and public policy conversation• Elected, volunteer Board of Directors• Member-driven• Dedicated to making Alberta a jurisdiction of unsurpassed prosperity and quality of life• Canada Connects events series: We have a mandate from AEG members to build networks across Canada and internationally.• Organized trade missions to Washington, Geneva, Ottawa and Quebec• Brought hundreds of business and political leaders to Alberta to learn about investment opportunities.
  3. 3. The 2012 Canada U.S Trade Dynamic• The Canada-U.S trade relationship is the most successful and prosperous in the world• In 2011 our bilateral trade was close to $688 billion, with more than $1.7 billion worth of goods and services crossing the Canada-U.S. border every single day.• A 2009 study found that trade with Canada supports over 8 million jobs in the United States.*(THE DEPENDENCE OF U.S. EMPLOYMENT ON CANADA by Peter B. Dixon, Kevin Hanslow andMaureen T. Rimmer Centre of Policy Studies, Monash University,July 27, 2012)
  4. 4. The origins of a Canadian-built car
  5. 5. Snapshot of the U.S. Economy – mixedsignals• U.S housing prices starting to rebound, but it’s not a straight up trajectory• Home construction is too small to provide economic lift• Building confidence is increasing, as low mortgage rates make homes affordable, so down the road there could be some construction lift in the economy• Consumer confidence is rising, but incomes are not. Income is not keeping pace with inflation. High fuel prices will have an impact.• Businesses appear less confident than consumers• Consumer spending is up, but there are concerns about tax increases and government austerity reversing that trend over the next year.• The U.S unemployment rate is barely treading water at 8.1 per cent• Safe to assume U.S. demand for Canadian goods and services will remain relatively flat, with some growth areas and some contraction.
  6. 6. Snapshot of the Canadian Economy –Modest but stable growth• Canada’s third quarter GDP growth stronger than expected• Even though the value of oil and gas production declined slightly in recent months, other sectors have picked up the slack• RBC PMI (purchasing manager’s index) shows Canada’s manufacturing sector continues to expand, but not as quickly as last year.• Canada’s unemployment rate was 7.3 per cent in August, well below the long term average of 8.5 per cent• On a year over year basis, employment increased by around 1 per cent, or 177,000 jobs• Since hitting rock bottom in 2009, Canada’s job market has slowly and steadily improved, but we nowhere near the unemployment lows seen in 2007• Canada is an island of economic stability in turbulent times – thanks largely to strong demand for key natural resources.
  7. 7. Canada – USTrade Trends2000 peak year for tradeFree Trade Deal 25 yearsoldCanada and US pursuingother bilateral trade deals Andrew Barr, National Post
  8. 8. Current Trade State of Play• Keystone XL• Softwood Lumber• Prescription drugs• Immigration and labour mobility• Beyond Borders – common security perimetre• US National Export Initiative• Oil Sands/Energy boom – 465,000 jobs in US (2011-2035) - CERI• $45 billion/year impact to GDP – CERI• Border thickening post-9/11• Beef recall
  9. 9. 4 Strategies in shifting environment Peter Bono, The Lawyers Weekly
  10. 10. Embrace trade, reject protectionism• FDI – US to CAD • Jobs, jobs, jobs• Pre-free trade: $76 • Technology billion • Competitiveness &• Today: $326 billion Productivity • New Markets both• FDI – CAD to US ways• Pre-free trade: $51 billion• Today: $276 billion• Source: BMO
  11. 11. Leverage through Diversification• Canada a price taker, not maker• Brent – WTI spread bad economics• Energy is gateway to enhanced trade
  12. 12. Coalitions• Complexity of economic, political and trade issues necessitate new ways of thinking• Established institutions changing• Need for likeminded coalitions never more apparent
  13. 13. Politics vs. Facts
  14. 14. Conclusion• CAD-US trade foundational piece of economy• Relationship evolving due to global economic realities• Still best thing going globally
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