Mekong Adaptation and Resilience toClimate Change(Mekong ARCC)Christy Owen, Deputy Chief of Party
Mekong ARCC• Five year, $9.4m in fundingcovering Mekong countries– Lao PDR, Thailand,Cambodia & Vietnam• First deliverable...
Mekong ARCCGeographicFocus
• Use climate change science to identify vulnerable crops,fisheries and ecosystems in Lower Mekong countries• Work at fiel...
Current Climate Zones1. Max/min daily Temperature2. Seasonal rainfall3. Timing of the monsoon4. Peak rainfall events5. Ero...
RUBBERCASSAVACOFFEEMAIZERAINFED RICESOYA
FISHERIESLIVESTOCKEcosystems & NTFPS
Key MethodologicalConcepts
ModelingDecisionTreeProjections of future emissions and global GHGconcentrationsIPCC EMMISSION SCENARIOSProjections of fut...
Max Average DailyTemperature Change 205010• Changes are greatest in wet season– Wet season: 1.7 – 5.3 °C– Dry Season: 1.5 ...
Average PrecipitationChange by 2050• Annual precipitation is projected toincrease by 3-18% (35 – 365mm)throughout the basi...
Land suitability: conditions of climate, topography andsoilsScience into ActionsLosses or gains in crop yields caused by f...
Land Suitability: Rice
Land Suitability:Rubber14
Current high yield andproduction areas in CentralHighlands will decrease insuitabilityIn Dak Lak 5,000km2 willdecrease in ...
Optimal growing conditions Sesan Catchment: Mean annual max temptemperature16Land SuitabilitySesan Catchment
Optimal growing conditions Sesan Catchment: mean annual rainfall precipitation17Land SuitabilitySesan Catchment
• Baseline production =159,000 tonne• Decrease in production by2050 = 20,000 tonneBy 2050 rice yields in Gia Lai may reduc...
Non-climate DriversReducing Resilience• Hydropower development– currently 16 existing hydropower projects with additional ...
Hot Spot Selection Criteria• Provinces with high increase in projected climatechange threat• Representation of all ecozone...
• Chiang Rai - Thailand• Sakon Nakhon - Thailand• Khammouan – Lao PDR• Champasak - Lao PDR• Stung Treng - Cambodia• Mondul...
At the front lines
Strengthen capacity to ‘act, learn, act again’ in 5-6 focalareas by building communities’ ability to:a) build understandin...
Guiding Principles• Action driven by local communities and involvinggovernment• Build on existing good adaptive practice b...
Adaptation OptionsReducing vulnerability through natural, social,institutional, and built systems development•Natural syst...
Upcoming Events• Study finalized through incorporation of input byregional experts & USAID (July)• Call for proposals rele...
Thank Youwww.mekongarcc.net
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3. Mekong ARRC Climate change impact and adaptation study for lower Mekong basin

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3. Mekong ARRC Climate change impact and adaptation study for lower Mekong basin

  1. 1. Mekong Adaptation and Resilience toClimate Change(Mekong ARCC)Christy Owen, Deputy Chief of Party
  2. 2. Mekong ARCC• Five year, $9.4m in fundingcovering Mekong countries– Lao PDR, Thailand,Cambodia & Vietnam• First deliverable of theLower Mekong Initiative• Implemented by DAI– International Centre forEnvironmentalManagement– World ResourcesInstitute
  3. 3. Mekong ARCCGeographicFocus
  4. 4. • Use climate change science to identify vulnerable crops,fisheries and ecosystems in Lower Mekong countries• Work at field level on climate planning that supportscommunity development of adaptation and resiliencestrategies• Collect extensive data to assess approaches anddisseminate project results and best practices across theregion via platform partners to broaden/sustain impactMekong ARCCGoal: Increase adaptation capacity & resilience ofcommunities to the impacts of climate change
  5. 5. Current Climate Zones1. Max/min daily Temperature2. Seasonal rainfall3. Timing of the monsoon4. Peak rainfall events5. Erosion potential6. Drought7. Storms & cyclones8. Soil water availability9. River flow10. Hydro-biological seasons11. Flooding (depth & duration)
  6. 6. RUBBERCASSAVACOFFEEMAIZERAINFED RICESOYA
  7. 7. FISHERIESLIVESTOCKEcosystems & NTFPS
  8. 8. Key MethodologicalConcepts
  9. 9. ModelingDecisionTreeProjections of future emissions and global GHGconcentrationsIPCC EMMISSION SCENARIOSProjections of future atmospheric & ocean dynamicsGCMS – GLOBAL CIRCULATION MODELSNcarccsm3_0 micro3_2_hires giss_aomcnrm_cm3Downscaled projections of future climate at the basin-levelCLIMATE DOWNSCALINGPrediction of future hydrological regimeHYDROLOGICAL MODELLINGAnalysis and interpretation of climate change,hydrological and crop dataDATA ANALYSIS AND INTERPRETATIONbccr_bcm2_0 gfdl_cm2.1ICEM IWRM modelCrop suitability and yield modellingCROP MODELLINGA1BSTATISTICALLUSETand AquaCrop
  10. 10. Max Average DailyTemperature Change 205010• Changes are greatest in wet season– Wet season: 1.7 – 5.3 °C– Dry Season: 1.5 – 3.5 °C• Areas of greatest change:– Catchments of eastern Cambodia andhighlands of Vietnam
  11. 11. Average PrecipitationChange by 2050• Annual precipitation is projected toincrease by 3-18% (35 – 365mm)throughout the basin• Mostly due to increases in wetseason rainfall• For the southern parts of the basinincreased seasonal variability inrainfall– wetter wet season, drier dry season11
  12. 12. Land suitability: conditions of climate, topography andsoilsScience into ActionsLosses or gains in crop yields caused by factors suchas:– impact of water availability/soil moisture– heat/water stress in flowering, fruiting or ripening stages– extended dry season, drought, offseason rainfall– salinity intrusion in the deltaComfort Zones: temperature and rainfall conditions (rangeand timing) create favorable growing/productive environment
  13. 13. Land Suitability: Rice
  14. 14. Land Suitability:Rubber14
  15. 15. Current high yield andproduction areas in CentralHighlands will decrease insuitabilityIn Dak Lak 5,000km2 willdecrease in suitabilitySuitability will increase innorth of the basin – e.g.2,500km2 in Chiang Mai andChiang RaiLand Suitability:Robusta Coffee
  16. 16. Optimal growing conditions Sesan Catchment: Mean annual max temptemperature16Land SuitabilitySesan Catchment
  17. 17. Optimal growing conditions Sesan Catchment: mean annual rainfall precipitation17Land SuitabilitySesan Catchment
  18. 18. • Baseline production =159,000 tonne• Decrease in production by2050 = 20,000 tonneBy 2050 rice yields in Gia Lai may reduce by 12%Rice highly sensitive to:• Temperature increase during dryseason induces sterility• Increases in average minimumtemperature reduces biomass• Waterlogging during rainy season• Lower number of grainsCrop Yields
  19. 19. Non-climate DriversReducing Resilience• Hydropower development– currently 16 existing hydropower projects with additional 30online by 2015.• Irrigation– 3.8million ha of land under some form of irrigation, by 2030 thisis expected to increase to 6.0million ha.• Forest exploitation and changes in land use– will influence run-off volumes in some sub-catchments andamount of sediment transported downstream.• Population growth and demographic changes– currently undergoing huge economic and population growthperiod– economic-fueled migration
  20. 20. Hot Spot Selection Criteria• Provinces with high increase in projected climatechange threat• Representation of all ecozones• Representation of the delta area by includingprovince ranked highly threatened by flooding• Representation of each of the thematic sectors(fisheries, agriculture, livestock, natural systems andsocio-economics)• Representation of all four countries.20
  21. 21. • Chiang Rai - Thailand• Sakon Nakhon - Thailand• Khammouan – Lao PDR• Champasak - Lao PDR• Stung Treng - Cambodia• Mondul Kiri - Cambodia• Kampong Thom -Cambodia• Kien Giang -Vietnam• Gia Lai - VietnamHot Spot Provinces
  22. 22. At the front lines
  23. 23. Strengthen capacity to ‘act, learn, act again’ in 5-6 focalareas by building communities’ ability to:a) build understanding of climate risksbased on past events, trends andprojectionsb) identify and prioritize adaptiveresponses to those risksc) Take action to implementadaptive responsesd) monitor and adjust along aniterative adaptation pathwayAdaptation Initiatives
  24. 24. Guiding Principles• Action driven by local communities and involvinggovernment• Build on existing good adaptive practice by lookingfor ways to add value• Recognize the cyclical and iterative nature ofadaptation
  25. 25. Adaptation OptionsReducing vulnerability through natural, social,institutional, and built systems development•Natural system adaptation – rehabilitation, revegetation,species/ecological enrichment, elimination of exotics, conservationcorridors•Landuse planning – zoning, safeguards and development controls,management plans, seasonal restrictions on harvesting, villageconservation zones•Community capacity building – retraining, awareness outreach,extension services, monitoring systems•Institutional mechanisms development – establishment ofmanagement boards, community management committees andintroducing adaptation impact assessment procedures•Engineering solutions – check dams, drainage systems, bankstabilization
  26. 26. Upcoming Events• Study finalized through incorporation of input byregional experts & USAID (July)• Call for proposals released for community adaptationinitiatives (May)• Award Subcontracts to implementing groups (Sept-Oct)• Kick off of field initiatives (October)• Economic impacts of CC (September)• Ecosystem valuation guidelines (starting year 3)
  27. 27. Thank Youwww.mekongarcc.net

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