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2. Climate risk management in Laos PDR
 

2. Climate risk management in Laos PDR

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Thavone Inthavong - Laos National Agriculture and Forestry Research Institute

Thavone Inthavong - Laos National Agriculture and Forestry Research Institute

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    2. Climate risk management in Laos PDR 2. Climate risk management in Laos PDR Presentation Transcript

    • Climate Risk Managementin Lao PDRNAFRIThavone InthavongSEA: REACTi Technical Innovation Symposium4-6th June, 2013 - Ninh Kieu 2 Hotel, Can Tho, Vietnam
    • Outline1. Introduction2.Climate Change in Lao PDRFuture climate scenarioThe impact of climate change on crop production3. Characterization of climate variability, water and soil nutrientlimiting crop yieldsQuantifying seasonal field water availabilityidentify the appropriate time for start and end of the growingseasonidentify the timing and severity level of water stressCrop management recommendationfertilizer recommendation rate for achieving yield targetsinformation on insects, pests and disease on rice growth stages4. Climate risk management (agro-climate advisory)Crop calendarMonthly and Weekly Climate advisory report
    • Rainfeduplands15,3371ha(21%)Irrigateddryseasonrice150.000ha(19%)Rainfedlowlandrice700,000ha(67%)I. IntroductionLao PDR could be the most vulnerablecountryAgriculture is one of the mostimportant activities in Laos (47.2%of total GDP and 76.3% of totalpopulation are in the agriculturalsystem)Majority of agri. activity is rainfedlowland rice which is the mainsource of food for the countryMay cause wide-scale impact tothe socio-economic condition andthe farmer could be among themost vulnerable group
    • +1 to 9% +15 to 17%II-Climate change in Lao PDRBaseline(CO2=360ppm)Average rainfall and change in the future (CCAM)Scenario I (2040)(CO2=540ppm)Scenario II (2070)(CO2=720ppm)
    • Average max. temperature and change in the future (CCAM)- 1% +3 to 4%Baseline(CO2=360ppm)Scenario I (2040)(CO2=540ppm)Scenario II (2070)(CO2=720ppm)
    • - 1%+4 to 9%Average min. temperature and change in the future (CCAM)Baseline(CO2=360ppm)Scenario I (2040)(CO2=540ppm)Scenario II (2070)(CO2=720ppm)
    • The impact of future climate scenario on crop productionestimated based on DSSAT model1.0xCO2 1.5xCO2 2.0xCO2Thavone (Rice)• SavannaketVichien (Rice)• Onset of rains, dry spills• Salt and sandSimilar rice yields for dry,median and wet yearsChitnucha (Rice)• Chiang Rai (CR)• Sakonnakorn (SK)• Sa Kaew (SW)Vinai (Cassava)• Khon KaenSukit (Sugarcane)• Khon KaenSahaschai (Maize)• Khon Kaen
    • 123 actualattainablepotentialYieldincreasingmeasuresYield protectingmeasuresdefining factors:reducingfactors:limitingfactors:Climate-rainfall-Temperature-radiation-crop characteristics•physiology, phenology•canopy architectureWater (flood, drought)Soil nutrients-nitrogen-phosphorous-potassiumCrop management-Weeds, pestsdiseases1500 10,0005000 20,000 Production level (kg ha-1)Source: World Food Production: Biophysical Factors of Agricultural Production, 1992.III-Characterization of climate variability, water and soilnutrient limiting on crop yields
    • Department ofMeteorologyand HydrologyNationalAgriculture andForestry ResearchInstituteWeather Forecast DivisionAgriculturalvulnerabilitymappingAgroClimateadvisoriesWater availabilityFloodDroughtCharacterization ofclimate informationFuture climateScenario analysisCropping systemsresilienceSWB, SCOPIC, APSIMFertilizer
    • AEZ
    • Rainfall TranspirationEvaporationRunoffSeepageUnder-bundPercolationLateral movementDownward movementSoil Water Balance Model (Inthavong et al., 2009)Soil Water Balance Model (Soil Water Balance Model (Inthavong et al., 2009)
    • Start of growingseasonEnd of growingseason-100.00-50.000.0050.00100.00150.00200.00250.001 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39 41 43 45 47 49 51WeeksmmRainfall Depth of standing water Field water storageSoil water at FC Soil water at WPStartLGP wk19 End LGP wk41Flowering0102030405060708090100-40 -35 -30 -25 -20 -15 -10 -5 0Ralative water level (cm)Grainyieldreduction(%)EarlyM ediumLateY=-1.68X ; r2 =0.80Start LGP End LGP LGP Flowering date Wlrel(mm) %yield reduction19 43 25 17-Sep -74.1 12Estimation of Yield limited by water stress
    • Deficit irrigation for nonDeficit irrigation for non--rice cropsrice crops
    • Schematic diagram for quantifying field water availability and waterstress development based on lowland water balance modelSoil dataSoil dataClayClay%%DownwardDownward(D)(D)Climate dataClimate dataRainfallRainfall ETcETcFIELD WATER BALANCE MODEL:FIELD WATER BALANCE MODEL: W(t)W(t)= W(t= W(t--1)+RF(t)1)+RF(t)--ETc(t)ETc(t)––D(t)D(t)--R(t)R(t)Determination of LGPDetermination of LGPDaily free water levelDaily free water levelEstimation probability of drought occurrenceEstimation probability of drought occurrenceSat, FC,Sat, FC,WP, AirWP, Air(Saxton & Rawls)(Saxton & Rawls)••Point based (daily)Point based (daily)••Gridded surfaceGridded surface(weekly)(weekly)
    • Yield limited by soil nutrients (N, P, K), and fertilizer requirementfor achieving yield targets for rainfed lowland riceYield limited by soil nutrients (N, P, K), and fertilizer requirYield limited by soil nutrients (N, P, K), and fertilizer requirementementfor achieving yield targets for rainfed lowland ricefor achieving yield targets for rainfed lowland riceQuantitative Evaluation of the Fertility ofTropical Soils and site specific nutrientrequirement (Janssen et al., 1990; Witt etal., 1999) were applied.Step 1: The estimation of indigenous soilnutrient suppliesStep 2: The actual uptake of a nutrient iscalculated as a function of the potentialsupply of that nutrient, and the amount ofnutrient applied as fertilizer, taking fertilizerrecovery efficiency into account.Step 3: Estimation of yield ranges foractual nutrient uptakeStep 4: Combination of possible yieldranges into one yield estimate
    • Results Weekly water stored in the fieldweek 28(9-15 July 2010)week 32(6-12 Aug 2010)week 40(1-7 Oct 2010)SGP EGP LGP
    • Yield target of 3 t/ha Yield target of 4 t/haNitrogen fertilizer (kg/ha)Phosphorus fertilizer (kg/ha)
    • Examine drought development patternusing long term of climate data (1985-2004)YearOuthomphone (Seno) KhanthabouriMeanannualrainfallLGP SDO MeanannualrainfallLGP SDOStart End Duration Early Mid Late Start End Duration Early Mid Lateweeks at week weeks at week1985 1251 24 38 15 29 36 1435 22 44 231986 1501 20 38 19 27 33 1382 18 42 25 281987 1245 25 39 15 32 1253 22 44 231988 1483 26 37 12 30 1133 19 44 26 25 391989 1711 27 40 14 1497 21 44 241990 1894 25 41 17 1713 19 46 281991 1456 25 41 28 31 1538 25 45 281992 1255 19 39 21 25,29 1375 20 42 231993 1248 19 40 22 22,30 1125 19 42 24 24 411994 1370 19 40 22 23 39 1603 19 44 261995 894 28 38 11 32,37 1351 19 43 25 261996 1312 29 42 14 41 1940 16 44 29 23 431997 1046 24 37 14 27 1335 21 43 231998 920 34 39 6 1070 20 42 23 29 40,411999 1242 18 34 17 23,24 1599 15 44 30 432000 1489 19 41 23 23,26 33 40 1594 15 45 31 442001 1973 20 40 21 24 1919 17 44 282002 1696 19 40 22 32 1982 19 43 252003 1625 24 40 17 27,28 1199 20 42 2323,24,27,28,292004 1655 19 39 21 22 1650 19 43 25Mean 1413 20 39 20 - - - 1485 19 44 26 - - -
    • Defining wet and dry seasonsSeason Average totalMay-Sep rainfallRecent examplesDry <1135mm 2009: 1056.9mm2007: 1082.2mmAverage 1135-1325mm 2008: 1312.7mmWet >1325mm 2011*: 1380.8mm2010: 1352.1mm*May-Aug rainfall
    • To translate the probability forecast, seasonalwater availability, including flood and droughtoccurrence, as well as, provide information onappropriate techniques that can help farmersminimize risk, achieving maximum productivityand enhancing their livelihoods under seasonalclimate variationIV-Climate Risk Management throughDevelopment of Agro- Climate Advisory
    • Crop Calendar (dry, normal and wet year)
    • Climate risk management techniques
    • Thank you foryour attention!