Lak11 Opening Keynote

Pragmatic analytics: insight, representation and structure
Tony Hirst
Department of Communication and Systems,
The Open University, UK

Let us start….
…with a little context

“Enterprise Driven” analytics

http://www.jiscinfonet.ac.uk/bi

Corporate Data and MI Analyst, Marketing
Contribute to development and delivery of robust models, tools, skills and resources to enable segmentation, competitor and market analysis and data mining within the Campaign Planning Team and more widely within Marketing and Sales.

For example... Experian's Mosaic UK combines over 440 separate data sources and divides the UK adult population into 69 different types and fifteen groups … at household address or postcode level.

Contribute to optimisingthe University’s customer targeting capability via regular reappraisal of segmentation policy with a view to increasing market share in high yield segments

Segment the prospect data mart by developing key prospect indicators to provide Response, Reservation, Registration, Retention and other key metric predictions for each.

advertisingprospectusregistrationretentiongraduationfundraising

Qualification
Description
The Goog
Course Page
Related Courses
Course Search
“Course Choice Analytics”

Qualification
Description
The Goog
Oer discovery
Course Page
Related Courses
Course Search
“Course Choice Analytics”

Looking for structure

“Visual analytics”

Graph based representations
Nodes: id, label
Edges:id(1), id(2)

AcadEmic analytics

“Student Centred” learning analytics

Descriptive reports
Prescriptive models
Predictive voodoo

Descriptive reports

via Dave Pattern @daveyp

“Negative feedback, closed loop control system”

Prescriptive models

Time series demonstrating:
- trend
seasonality/periodicity
noise

Autocorrelation
Linear detrend (green) and first difference (blue)

Voodoo Magic
(a.k.a. blackbox recommenders)

Input patterns
Output Patterns
“recommendation engine”
Desired output
Actual output
supervised learning(desired output for given input)

Course Analytics
(Google Analytics)
Sitewide
Tracking
(Site Analytics)
VLE
Stats
Library Analytics
(Google Analytics)

Beware headline figures…

Do you really mean that?

http://eagereyes.org/criticism/anscombes-quartet

Simpson’s Paradox

Segmentation is critical…

http://code.google.com/apis/analytics/docs/gdata/gdataExplorer.html

“Public signals”

Facebook: Course Profiles

Friendfeed

Commenters

“Discovered networks”

Bipartite Graph

Reach:
Double hit audience for “To lie or not to lie”

< questions? >

Lak11 Opening Keynote

by Tony Hirst on Mar 07, 2011

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Lak11 Opening Keynote — Presentation Transcript