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Zev Capital Research - basic strategy pacific
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Zev Capital Research - basic strategy pacific

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Basic US strategy in the Pacific based upon George Friedman's book, The Decade Ahead. …

Basic US strategy in the Pacific based upon George Friedman's book, The Decade Ahead.
This outline allowed me to instantly realize what had happened on June 9, 2013 - A US-China detente, a Japanese reversal, and the complete isolation of Germany.

Published in Economy & Finance
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  • 1. Fundamental US policy in Pacific - Oppose maritimepowers● Japan is a maritime power with capable navy○ Policy: Keep Japan dependent on US Navy● China is not a maritime power○ Not a threat to US power■ Strong China counterbalances Japan■ Weak China allows Japan assert itself○ China fragmentation is not in USA interestsChina1. Weak and getting weakera. Saber rattling is a sign of weakness not strengthb. Commodity price declinec. China is getting paranoidd. Fears Japan and China-Hawks in America2. Stimulus isn’t working anymorea. Slowing growth is causing social unrestb. Risk of fragmentationc. Japan stimulus seen as gearing up to take advantage3. China’s Army only option in holding China togethera. Tax wealthy coast to pay for armyb. Wealthy coast will resist and turn to anyone (Japan and/or US)c. China needs free hand to be ruthless in suppressing dissentJapan● Relies on US Navy to secure shipping lanes○ Risks● Disruptions to shipping lanes is an existential threat● Japan view○ Dependence is ok as long as risks are low■ Independence will be expensive■ Needs guarantees● USA can take risks that Japan cannot○ Iran threaten Strait of Hormuz○ US less dependent on foreign oil■ Shale boom■ Is US Navy reliable protection?
  • 2. ■ Japan is more dependent since tsunami■ Nuclear reactors shut down■ Japan has been talking to Russia about energy supplies● USA controls Japan by keeping it dependent on US Navy○ US want to prolong dependence○ Wants to delay Japan’s resurgence○ Needs a strong and stable China○ Increase china exports to US markets○ Politically dangerous■ Strong china can control foreign investments■ Fend off Japan’s ambitions● Japan view● Dependence is ok as long as risks are low○ Independence will be expensive○ Needs guarantees● Perceived high risks will shift Japan towards independence of US Navy● China viewed as threat or opportunity?○ Abe has made remilitarisation a clear goal○ Taking radical actions to reform economy○ Talking to Russia about energy supplies○ Clear signal to USA to keep Straits of Hormuz open■ Do not attack Iran■ Do not get involved in Syria