Agile methodologies, bath university march 2011
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Agile methodologies, bath university march 2011

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Agile methodologies, bath university march 2011 Agile methodologies, bath university march 2011 Presentation Transcript

  • Bath University – School of Management – EMBA Class of 2011 & Risk Management Option 2010.03.25 MBA 2011 & Risk Management Module (Prof. Emmanuel Fragnière) Identifying, structuring and piloting disruptive situations using agile type of methodologies Approaches and case studies 2
  • Bath University – School of Management – EMBA Class of 2011 & Risk Management Option 2010.03.25Synopsis :   Agenda   About us   Managing disruptive situations   Case study : Disruption in the luxury Hotel Industry   Wrap-up & Good-luckMarch 25, 2011 3
  • Bath University – School of Management – EMBA Class of 2011 & Risk Management Option 2010.03.25Time table Friday March 25, 2011 Concepts + Methodologies Training using a case Luxury Hotel Part A - Working Group preparation - Group presentations - Plenum discussion Luxury Hotel Part B - Working Group preparation - Group presentations - Wrap-up 4
  • Bath University – School of Management – EMBA Class of 2011 & Risk Management Option 2010.03.25Synopsis   Agenda   About us   Managing disruptive situations   Case study : Disruption in the luxury Hotel Industry   Wrap-up & Good-luckMarch 25, 2011 5
  • Bath University – School of Management – EMBA Class of 2011 & Risk Management Option 2010.03.25 About us Patrick Bays Philippe Steinmann   Lic. Econometrics, MBA IMD   Expert Auditor   15 years of international   20 years of international exposure in exposure in : o  the prototyping and the o  the management of implementation of disrutptive special projects innovation o  Supporting organizations o  change management within facing volatile situations several industries (high growth rate, turnaround)   PwC, Tetra Pak, Swisscom,   KPMG, Ilta Holding, UCB Pharma, Wake Asset Euroterminal Management   English, German, French   English, French 6
  • Bath University – School of Management – EMBA Class of 2011 & Risk Management Option 2010.03.25Synopsis :   Agenda   About us   Managing disruptive situations   A : Positioning   B : Methodologies   C : Training   Case study : Disruption in the luxury Hotel Industry   Wrap-up & Good-luckMarch 25, 2011 7
  • Bath University – School of Management – EMBA Class of 2011 & Risk Management Option 2010.03.25Risk awareness changes perspectives… 8
  • Bath University – School of Management – EMBA Class of 2011 & Risk Management Option 2010.03.25Basic reminders: the Board of Directors sets the risk appetite 9
  • Bath University – School of Management – EMBA Class of 2011 & Risk Management Option 2010.03.25Set the stage and quickly agree upon a common language Step 1 Step 2 Step 3 Step 4 Step 5 E Crisis management Vulnerability Anticipate Prevent Apply Restore analysis Manage the information Event Threats Measures Norms and Standards of protocols engagement Risk Management Contingency Planning Recovery Management Business Continuity Planning 10
  • Bath University – School of Management – EMBA Class of 2011 & Risk Management Option 2010.03.25These situations have something in common … Toyota suspends sales January 2010, recall list … no one anticipated their disruptive character and the storm that followed. 11
  • Bath University – School of Management – EMBA Class of 2011 & Risk Management Option 2010.03.25A situation of disruption occurs when ... for a given organizational system…. Period of high vollatility A new Equilibrium equilibrium Correctives E measures A particular event causes a disruption of this balance which threatens the sustainability of this system 12
  • Bath University – School of Management – EMBA Class of 2011 & Risk Management Option 2010.03.25Afterwards, most actors agree they were unable to grasp theseverity of the situation … Symptoms •  No abrupt change but soft slips Crisis Managing the High Potential impact Management unexpected causing discomfort and doubts •  Lack of response and lack of anticipation leading from the start to to become chronic victims of events •  Lack of internal coordination and Low Operational Fault consultation Management Management •  Chaotic and contraductory internal so as external communication Yes No Anticipated event …due to a slowly increasing disturbing feeling invading and panicking them 13
  • Bath University – School of Management – EMBA Class of 2011 & Risk Management Option 2010.03.25The management of such a disruption is fundamentally differentif the triggering event could be anticipated in advance ... Step 1 Step 2 Step 3 Step 4 Step 5 E Crisis management Vulnerability Anticipate Prevent Apply Restore analysis React Restore Managing the unexpected Event 14
  • Bath University – School of Management – EMBA Class of 2011 & Risk Management Option 2010.03.25The observation of extreme behaviors in emergency situationshas helped us to define our methodology in business occasions Crisis situation Emergency doctors 3 minutes Quality of the information available Precise, calibrated ED SStart SEnd t Standard behaviors and normed protocols Mgr Military forces Médiocre … MiF SStart SInt.1 SInt.2 SInt.n t Normed Estimated Time management emergency situations Method of dynamic resolution by successive iterations 15
  • Bath University – School of Management – EMBA Class of 2011 & Risk Management Option 2010.03.25The military method of dynamic resolution by successive iterations Analyzing and Planning Iterations Developing the engagement plan Shaping decision Assessment of the situation Draft backplanning Triggering emergency measures Identification of the problem 16
  • Bath University – School of Management – EMBA Class of 2011 & Risk Management Option 2010.03.25The economic drama seems never ending… 2008 : Financial Crisis 2009 : Economic Crisis 2010 : Social Crisis 2011 : - Currency Crisis ? - Government Debt Crisis ? … Companies have managed to survive this turmoil by becoming more agile and flexible 17
  • Bath University – School of Management – EMBA Class of 2011 & Risk Management Option 2010.03.25The Cougars in a nutshell :   Agenda   About us   Managing disruptive situations   A : Positioning   B : Methodologies   C : Training   Case study : Disruption in the luxury Hotel Industry   Wrap-up & Good-luckMarch 25, 2011 18
  • Bath University – School of Management – EMBA Class of 2011 & Risk Management Option 2010.03.25Our approach combines the strengths of two frameworks usingcross functional teams to quickly generate an impact Deep Dive Scrum •  A technique to rapidly immerse a team •  An agile and lean methodology used for into a situation for problem solving in : software development: o  Product development o  Designed to adapt to changing o  Process improvement requirements during the development process at short regular intervalles o  Customer service strategy o  Allows teams to priorize customers requirements and adopt work produced in real time to customer needs 19
  • Bath University – School of Management – EMBA Class of 2011 & Risk Management Option 2010.03.25Deep Dive: step by step http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=M66ZU2PCIcM Inspiration Ideation Implementation Observe and inquire Tell stories Synthesize Visualize Realize Refine Evaluate Execute Spread 20
  • Bath University – School of Management – EMBA Class of 2011 & Risk Management Option 2010.03.25 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vmGMpME_phgScrum in a nutshell http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q5k7a9YEoUI 21
  • Bath University – School of Management – EMBA Class of 2011 & Risk Management Option 2010.03.25But the IDEO Frameworks reaches some limits as soon as therequirements need to be re-priorized permanently Scrum Scrum methodology mainly used for software development provides a strong framework to address this topic 22
  • Bath University – School of Management – EMBA Class of 2011 & Risk Management Option 2010.03.25An high level illustration of our Agile Development Methods A dynamic approach under dynamic environmental monitoring Observe and ask Develop a Storyline Priorize Co-Create Inspiration Ideation Implémentation Deep Dive Scrum 23
  • Bath University – School of Management – EMBA Class of 2011 & Risk Management Option 2010.03.25In practice, a situation of high volatility is resolved step by step Step 1 Step 2 Step 3 Step 4 Step 5 Project Management & Communication Urgency measuresProcess Storyline Implementation, Agile controls and Scoping Clarification Gain support Prototyping adjustements Planing Decision Decision Decision Decision DecisionTool-Box Change management & Implementation 24
  • Bath University – School of Management – EMBA Class of 2011 & Risk Management Option 2010.03.25The Cougars in a nutshell :   Admin stuff   About us   Managing disruptive situations   A : Positioning   B : Methodologies   C : Training : the Ukrain’s case   Case study : Disruption in the luxury Hotel Industry   Wrap-up & Good-luckMarch 25, 2011 25
  • Bath University – School of Management – EMBA Class of 2011 & Risk Management Option 2010.03.25The Ukrainian case : 1998 & 2010, bis repetitaGeneral situation: the Ukrainian environment End of the 90’Ecosystem was reaching an equilibrium :•  Liberal government, development of an economy oriented•  Facilities for foreign company to develop business in provinces•  Stability of the system (social and economic) & the regulation•  Average monthly salary : 250 - 400 US$•  Compliance review of all contract by local government 3-6 months laterParticular situation : the Group structure, activities andGroup structure & Activities•  Trading Co , Crushing plants (250K MT), Distribution’s company•  Purchase of sunflower seeds in regions for both crushing and selling abroad. Crude oil produced & sold around the world.•  Approx. 400 contracts signed and performed per year (seeds, oil, meal)•  1 lawyer and 2 assistants employed by the group to review the contracts (standard)Salient factors to be determinedActivity risk, delivery risk, payment risk, contractual risk (review by the government) 26
  • Bath University – School of Management – EMBA Class of 2011 & Risk Management Option 2010.03.25Part A : What are the major salient factors of operating this businessin Ukraine (at an equilibrium state of its ecosystem) ? 1 •  •  2 •  •  3 •  •  4 •  •  27
  • Bath University – School of Management – EMBA Class of 2011 & Risk Management Option 2010.03.25Part A : Hierarchy of salient factors in a balanced ecosystem: 1 Risk matrix Eisenhower matrix High 2 High Likelihood Urgency 3 Low Low 4 Low High Low High Impact Importance 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 28
  • Bath University – School of Management – EMBA Class of 2011 & Risk Management Option 2010.03.25Part B : Disruption :Majority Change at the parliament : the communist Party takes overpower on Liberals :The Parliament will be formed in one week after the election :•  its objective will be to reduce the margin of private firms for public companies and increasing taxes, fines and penalties.•  It will seat from 09:00 to 23:00, 6 of 7 days, toughening laws strictly and adding a multitude of fines and penalties for any non- compliance with contract law or in changing contractual terms (delivery date, quantity & quality treated…).Changing laws will be treated anarchic and could be amended orchanged every day.•  Chancery will publish new laws every day at midnight for an immediate application. 29
  • Bath University – School of Management – EMBA Class of 2011 & Risk Management Option 2010.03.25Part B : What are the major salient factors of operating thisbusiness in Ukraine after disruption ? Other ? … 30
  • Bath University – School of Management – EMBA Class of 2011 & Risk Management Option 2010.03.25Part B : Hierarchy of salient factors after disruption : 1 Risk matrix Eisenhower matrix High 2 High Likelihood Urgency 3 Low Low 4 Low High Low High Impact Importance 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 31
  • Bath University – School of Management – EMBA Class of 2011 & Risk Management Option 2010.03.25Part B : Prototyping an embryonic solution : the best you can do tobe ready in only one week 32
  • Bath University – School of Management – EMBA Class of 2011 & Risk Management Option 2010.03.25The Cougars in a nutshell :   Agenda   About us   Managing disruptive situations   Case study : Disruption in the luxury Hotel Industry   Part A : At an Equilibrium state   Part B : Managing disruption   Wrap-up & Good-luckMarch 25, 2011 33
  • Bath University – School of Management – EMBA Class of 2011 & Risk Management Option 2010.03.25The Cougars in a nutshell :   Agenda   About us   Managing disruptive situations   Case study : Disruption in the luxury Hotel Industry   Part A : At an Equilibrium state   Part B : Managing disruption   Wrap-up & Good-luckMarch 25, 2011 34
  • Bath University – School of Management – EMBA Class of 2011 & Risk Management Option 2010.03.25The Cougars in a nutshell :   Agenda   About us   Managing disruptive situations   Case study : Disruption in the luxury Hotel Industry   Part A : Diagnosis, Scoping and Clarification   Part B : Prototyping & implementation   Wrap-upMarch 25, 2011 35
  • Bath University – School of Management – EMBA Class of 2011 & Risk Management Option 2010.03.25The Cougars in a nutshell :   Agenda   About us   Managing disruptive situations in crisis times using agile type of methodologies   Case study : Disruption in the luxury Hotel Industry   Wrap-upMarch 25, 2011 36
  • Bath University – School of Management – EMBA Class of 2011 & Risk Management Option 2010.03.25 37