Forecasting
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Forecasting

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Forecasting Presentation Transcript

  • 1. Forecasting
    Parminder Singh Grover
  • 2. 08/12/2010
    2
    Forecasting
    Forecasting is the process of making statements about events whose actual outcomes have not yet been observed.
    Forecasting is an art of predicting future values of random variables.
  • 3. Used to Ans. Imp Qus.
    How much profit will the business make? 
    How much demand will there be for a product or service?
    How much money will the company need to borrow?
    When and how will borrowed funds be repaid?
    08/12/2010
    3
  • 4. Need for forecasting
    It is necessary to predict the macro and micro changes as accurately as possible to survive and grow in a dynamic and uncertain world.
    08/12/2010
    4
  • 5. Importance
    Forecasting prevents the company from spending time and money developing, manufacturing, and marketing a product that will fail.
    08/12/2010
    5
  • 6. Methods of Forecasting
    QUALITATIVE FORECASTING
    Market research
    Product life-cycle
    Expert judgment 
    08/12/2010
    6
  • 7. Cont’d
    QUANTITATIVE FORECASTING
    TIME SERIES FORECASTING
    Trend
    Seasonal influence
    08/12/2010
    7
  • 8. BENEFITS (Forecasting)
    Better material management
    Better labor relations
    Balanced work-load
    Minimization in the fluctuations of production
    08/12/2010
    8
  • 9. Cont’d
    Better use of production facilities
    Better customer service
    Better utilization of capital and resources
    Better design of facilities and production system.
    08/12/2010
    9
  • 10. Cost (Forecasting)
    Data always not reliable or accurate
    Data may be out of date
    The past is always not guide to future
    Wastage of time and money
    Lack of understanding
    08/12/2010
    10
  • 11. Approaches
    Econometric : - Some forecasting methods use the assumption that it is possible to identify the underlying factors that might influence the variable that is being forecast.
    Time Series Analysis:- Time series methods use historical data as the basis of estimating future outcomes.
    08/12/2010
    11
  • 12. Cont’d
    Subjective Judgmental :- Judgmental forecasting methods incorporate intuitive judgments, opinions & subjective
    probability estimates.
    08/12/2010
    12
  • 13. Forecasting in Resort
    Identify Variable
    Do the data analysis
    Do paperwork
    Prepare forecaste Plan
    Make decision
    Implement
    Achieve desire result
    08/12/2010
    13
  • 14. What do you think, Forecasting must for business ?
    08/12/2010
    14
  • 15. Any Query ?
    08/12/2010
    15