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Forecasting
Forecasting
Forecasting
Forecasting
Forecasting
Forecasting
Forecasting
Forecasting
Forecasting
Forecasting
Forecasting
Forecasting
Forecasting
Forecasting
Forecasting
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Forecasting

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  • 1. Forecasting<br />Parminder Singh Grover<br />
  • 2. 08/12/2010<br />2<br />Forecasting <br />Forecasting is the process of making statements about events whose actual outcomes have not yet been observed.<br />Forecasting is an art of predicting future values of random variables. <br />
  • 3. Used to Ans. Imp Qus.<br />How much profit will the business make? <br />How much demand will there be for a product or service?<br />How much money will the company need to borrow?<br />When and how will borrowed funds be repaid?<br />08/12/2010<br />3<br />
  • 4. Need for forecasting<br />It is necessary to predict the macro and micro changes as accurately as possible to survive and grow in a dynamic and uncertain world.<br />08/12/2010<br />4<br />
  • 5. Importance <br />Forecasting prevents the company from spending time and money developing, manufacturing, and marketing a product that will fail.<br />08/12/2010<br />5<br />
  • 6. Methods of Forecasting<br />QUALITATIVE FORECASTING <br />Market research<br />Product life-cycle<br />Expert judgment <br />08/12/2010<br />6<br />
  • 7. Cont’d<br />QUANTITATIVE FORECASTING <br />TIME SERIES FORECASTING <br />Trend<br />Seasonal influence<br />08/12/2010<br />7<br />
  • 8. BENEFITS (Forecasting)<br />Better material management<br />Better labor relations<br />Balanced work-load<br />Minimization in the fluctuations of production<br />08/12/2010<br />8<br />
  • 9. Cont’d<br />Better use of production facilities<br />Better customer service<br />Better utilization of capital and resources<br />Better design of facilities and production system.<br />08/12/2010<br />9<br />
  • 10. Cost (Forecasting)<br />Data always not reliable or accurate<br />Data may be out of date<br />The past is always not guide to future<br />Wastage of time and money<br />Lack of understanding<br />08/12/2010<br />10<br />
  • 11. Approaches <br />Econometric : - Some forecasting methods use the assumption that it is possible to identify the underlying factors that might influence the variable that is being forecast. <br />Time Series Analysis:- Time series methods use historical data as the basis of estimating future outcomes.<br />08/12/2010<br />11<br />
  • 12. Cont’d<br />Subjective Judgmental :- Judgmental forecasting methods incorporate intuitive judgments, opinions &amp; subjective<br /> probability estimates.<br />08/12/2010<br />12<br />
  • 13. Forecasting in Resort<br />Identify Variable<br />Do the data analysis<br />Do paperwork<br />Prepare forecaste Plan<br />Make decision<br />Implement<br />Achieve desire result<br />08/12/2010<br />13<br />
  • 14. What do you think, Forecasting must for business ?<br />08/12/2010<br />14<br />
  • 15. Any Query ? <br />08/12/2010<br />15<br />

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