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Keynote for NFAIS identifies tech, learning platforms, content, cultural trends in HE and a look at the developing MOOC trends.

Keynote for NFAIS identifies tech, learning platforms, content, cultural trends in HE and a look at the developing MOOC trends.

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    NFAIS 2013 conference keynote trends he rev NFAIS 2013 conference keynote trends he rev Presentation Transcript

    • Trends in Higher Education: An Overview 2013 Prepared by: Pat Sabosik, President Elm City Consulting, LLC April 2013 NFAIS Workshop: Trends in Higher Education: Content, Services and Business Models © Elm City Consulting, LLC 2013
    • Elm City Consulting, LLC Elm City Consulting is a management consulting firm with expertise in digital content and product strategy and product management. We advise business-to-business information companies on strategic direction, market segmentation, go-to-market solutions and acquisitions. With more that 20 years of operational experience in Fortune 1000 companies, we bring an analytic and operational approach to every assignment. 2 Our work is at the intersection of information, technology and applications. Our experience in corporate planning helps us identify the right solutions for our clients.
    • Snapshot of High Level Trends  More online programs  Increase in online courses and MOOCs drives institutions to have an online strategy  More emphasis on “self-directed” learning  Increase in the number of self-paced, competency-based programs  Southern New Hampshire University’s College for America: Direct assessment of learning program  US Department of Education endorses competency-based education  Shift in faculty hiring processes  Increase in part-time faculty  Demand for master teachers for online courses 19 June 2013 © Elm City Consulting, LLC 2013 3 Source: Fox Business, Higher Education Trends to Watch for in 2013 http://www.foxbusiness.com/personal-finance/2013/01/28/higher-education-trends-to-watch-for-in-2013/ http://www.insidehighered.com/news/2013/03/19/feds-give-nudge-competency-based-education Move towards a $10K college degree, TX and FL making plans Online and competency combo
    • Trends in Higher Education 2013 Macro View 19 June 2013 © Elm City Consulting, LLC 2013 4 Financial/ Economic Technological DemographicPolitical “Political” category from Jeffrey Selingo, CHE Views March 8, 2013
    • Technological Trends  Wired campus  Bring your own device (BYOD)  Student analytics  Adaptive Learning  Predictive Solutions  Learning informatics  Online & hybrid courses  Multi-user open online course (MOOC)  Mobile Apps  eBooks, content models  Course management systems 19 June 2013 © Elm City Consulting, LLC 2013 5 Technological
    • Student Behavior & Technology 19 June 2013 © Elm City Consulting, LLC 2013 6
    • Financial Trends  Tuition costs  Textbook costs  Research funding  Workforce planning/training  $10K Degree  Endowment values  Decreasing state & federal funding  Student debt  College bankruptcy  Corporate partnerships  Services 19 June 2013 © Elm City Consulting, LLC 2013 7 Financial/ Economic
    • Political Trends  Pell Grants  For-profit colleges  Increase in state funding for research vs decrease in federal dollars -- FL  Academic appointments  Competency vs knowledge-based degrees  Public regulation of post-secondary programs  DOEd and Lumina Foundation for Education goal: 60% of American workforce with a high-quality post- secondary credential by 2025* 19 June 2013 © Elm City Consulting, LLC 2013 8 Political * Certificates: Gateway to Gainful Employment and College Degrees, report by Georgetown University Center on Education & the Workforce 2012
    • A Word About Certificates -- As a MOOC Outcome and Revenue Opportunity  Shift to credentialing down to a certificate level, followed by an Associate degree and then Bachelor’s degree  Potential opportunity for private, non-profit institutions to play a role in certificate and training programs 19 June 2013 © Elm City Consulting, LLC 2013 9 * Certificates: Gateway to Gainful Employment and College Degrees, report by Georgetown University Center on Education & the Workforce 2012 “The rapid growth of certificates over the past 30 years is a promising signal that students and institutions are recognizing the value of certificates at an increasing rate.”
    • Demographic Trends  Student populations  Decreasing  Older  Demand for “life-long learning”  Tenured faculty retirements  Impact on Accreditation  Adjuncts standing, the majority of instructional faculty  “Outsourced” education  Courses and employment  Skills and Competency 19 June 2013 © Elm City Consulting, LLC 2013 10 Demographic
    • Student Demographics Forecasted Increase Drives Online Course Delivery 19 June 2013 © Elm City Consulting, LLC 2013 11 Source: Campus Technology; LoudCloud Systems Presentation 2013 Driving institutions to have an online strategy
    • Trends at Classroom & Course Level “Content View” Online Courses Adaptive Learning Services 19 June 2013 © Elm City Consulting, LLC 2013 12 Online Hybrid MOOCs Platforms Analytics New Content Models Recruitment Retention Tutoring Services Competency/ Assessment Course Dev Tools Course Dev Services Hosting Platform Asset Management ePortfolios Alumni Services Platform: LMS Adaptive Learning Publisher MOOC Combination
    • Adaptive Learning Solutions Personalizing Learning for Individual Students 19 June 2013 © Elm City Consulting, LLC 2013 13 Test Prep + Cengage Mix of traditional publishers, new publisher entrants, and platforms shaping new learning solutions Sources: Education Growth Advisors, http://edgrowthadvisors.com/gatesfoundation, Wikipedia, Web Searches Tools to build online courses, fee-based
    • Business Models for Adaptive Learning 19 June 2013 © Elm City Consulting, LLC 2013 14 Disrupts traditional assessment & textbook-test model New entrants with new business models Services business
    • Online Course Growth What’s Happening on Campuses Today  6.7 million students enrolled in one or more online courses in the fall 2011 term, an increase of 8.5%, 570,000 students  10% growth rate for online enrollments which far exceeded the 2% growth in overall HE student population  31% of HE students now take at least one online course  65% of HE institutions now say that online learning is a critical part of their long-term strategy  MOOCs driving this  Stevens Institute of Technology, including Web Campus, in new 10-year strategic plan, as example 19 June 2013 © Elm City Consulting, LLC 2013 15 Source: Going the Distance: Online Education in the US 2011 http://www.babson.edu/Academics/centers/blank-center/global-research/Documents/going-the-distance.pdf
    • Online Course Platforms (Including MOOCs and Hybrid Courses) 19 June 2013 © Elm City Consulting, LLC 2013 16 Big 3 from top brand institutions Blackboard initiative Consortium of 12 UK institutions “Connected” learning environment Distance learning Tools to build online courses, fee-based Course development tools Course fees, instructor revenue Online course network Tools and platform http://www.mooc-list.com/ Growing list of online courses
    • Business Models for Online Courses: A Few Views on Revenue Big 3 MOOC course providers:  "The most significant short-term benefit to the top-tier universities [from MOOCs] is blunting public criticism that wealthy universities do not provide enough service to fulfill their public mission and, therefore, maintain their tax-exempt status in the United States" ("Shifting Ground," September 2012, page 4) Moody's Investors Services.  Wall Street Journal: “Online Courses Look for a Business Model”by M. Korn & J.Levitz http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1000142412788732433 9204578173421673664106.html  Foundation and venture funding  May not be free for long New entrants and service providers  Venture funding  Building service and revenue programs 19 June 2013 © Elm City Consulting, LLC 2013 17 Platform fees Hosting fees Course fees Driving innovation in instructional material
    • Foundation Funding for Online Courses Foundations Support Educational Innovation More than $100M invested as of spring 2013 19 June 2013 © Elm City Consulting, LLC 2013 18 Institution Financing Sources California, State of $10M/yr Entry level courses State funding MIT $35M Hewlett, Mellon, MIT Harvard $30M w/MIT for edX Yale $3M Hewlett Carnegie Mellon $5.6M Hewlett UC Irvine $1.6M Hewlett, Boeing, UCI Open Learning Initiative ~$20M Various foundations Sources: CHE, “How 4 Colleges Support Online Courses, Oct 12, 2009; Harvard Magazine, “Online Evolution Accelerates” March-April 2013
    • What Do Faculty Think About Teaching MOOCs? Chronicle Study 19 June 2013 © Elm City Consulting, LLC 2013 19 http://chronicle.com/article/The-Professors-Behind-the- MOOC/137905/?cid=at&utm_source=at&utm_medium=en#id=overview Economic implications of MOOCs may be more far-reaching than changing content models
    • Services – Online Course Development  Institutions hiring publishers to build online courses & publishers partnering with software companies  Investment and scale  Pearson & Rutgers partnership building online courses on eCollege platform: virtual classrooms, curriculum, course materials*  John Wiley’s purchase of Deltak.edu, partners with colleges to build and run online courses  Cengage Course 360, a customizable online classroom  McGraw-Hill acquires Tegrity, lecture capture software that enables professors to embed lectures in courses 19 June 2013 © Elm City Consulting, LLC 2013 20 Sources: *http://chronicle.com/article/Dont-Call-Them-Textbooks/136835/, Elm City Consulting Data
    • Services Beyond Courses: SaaS, Program Design, Recruitment, Retention  Macmillan launches Digital Science division and partners with companies to provide software tools and services to scientists  SureChem, BioData, Simplectic, Labtivia  Pearson’s acquisition of Embanet & Wiley’s acquisition of Deltak.edu go beyond course development  Program and curriculum design, online course development, recruitment, retention, hosting  Changes the relationship between publisher and institution  Shifts value proposition  Changes revenue and cost models for institutions, service providers, and publishers 19 June 2013 © Elm City Consulting, LLC 2013 21
    • Workforce Readiness: College Majors with the Highest & Lowest Employment Rates 19 June 2013 © Elm City Consulting, LLC 2013 22 http://www.upworthy.com/do-you-know-which-college-majors-have-the-highest-and-lowest-employment-rates-2?c=ufb1 Highest in 2012-2013 Agricultural Sciences Pharmacology Educational Administration School Student Counseling Biological & Geophysical Engineering Astronomy & Astrophysics Teacher Education Agricultural Economics Medical Technologies Technicians Atmospheric Sciences & Meteorology Naval Architecture & Marine Engineering Environmental Engineering Nursing Public Policy Industrial Radiology Biological Technologies
    • Alignment of Industry and Academy for Workforce Readiness – Ivy Tech  Ivy Tech (Indiana) Corporate College, education & training partner. Online training, workforce development, partnership with Disney Institute for brand loyalty and leadership excellence 19 June 2013 © Elm City Consulting, LLC 2013 23 http://www.ivytech.edu/corporatecollege/
    • Summary 19 June 2013 © Elm City Consulting, LLC 2013 24 Institutions developing an online strategy Technology and economics driving new educational models Adaptive learning models maturing MOOCs driving innovation in instructional materials Publishers partnering with institutions for services beyond textbooks Content and business models reforming as services Learning as we know it is undergoing immense change
    • Thank you Pat Sabosik, President Elm City Consulting, LLC psabosik@elmcityconsulting.com 19 June 2013 © Elm City Consulting, LLC 2013 25
    • Appendix & Update  In the five weeks since I made this presentation at a National Federation of Advanced Information Systems workshop, a number of events have sharpened some of the trends and implications for the education market.  Additional slides are highlights 19 June 2013 © Elm City Consulting, LLC 2013 26
    • Learning Outcomes in Online Courses 19 June 2013 © Elm City Consulting, LLC 2013 27 Source: Going the Distance: Online Education in the US 2011 http://www.babson.edu/Academics/centers/blank-center/global-research/Documents/going-the-distance.pdf Learning outcomes are expected to improve for online courses as the models improve, social and peer coaching are introduced, and a new generation of learners comfortable in online environments enters higher education
    • Reducing the Cost of College Textbooks and the Cost of a College Education are Drivers of Change 19 June 2013 © Elm City Consulting, LLC 2013 28 Textbooks US College Tuition Source: Business Insider -- http://www.businessinsider.com/the-biggest-asset-bubbles-2013-4#textbooks-1 Among the Biggest Asset Bubbles in 2013 – Business Insider
    • Another View: Growth in Cost of Education vs Home Prices & CPI 19 June 2013 © Elm City Consulting, LLC 2013 29 http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2013/01/04/college-textbook-prices-increase_n_2409153.html
    • Online Courses Grow Out of Necessity and Convenience  Penn State to Invest $20M to Grow World Campus 19 June 2013 © Elm City Consulting, LLC 2013 30 Enrollment in online education continues to grow, according to a Sloan Consortium (Sloan-C) survey, which found more than 6.7 million students — almost a third of higher education students — were taking at least one online course in 2011. Sloan-C is a professional society for e-learning practitioners. http://news.psu.edu/story/275043/2013/04/29/academics/penn-state-invest-20-million-grow-world-campus-45000- students
    • Business Models Firm Up as Fees and Course Credit Enter the Mix  American Council on Education’s College Credit Recommendation Service recommends five Coursera courses for college credit  Ten state university systems, including SUNY, join Coursera to develop online and hybrid courses, using MOOC technology to improve completion rates and access to higher education 19 June 2013 © Elm City Consulting, LLC 2013 31 http://blog.coursera.org/post/42486198362/five-courses-receive-college-credit-recommendations http://blog.coursera.org/post/51696469860/10-us-state-university-systems-and-public-institutions
    • Publishers and Course Providers Partner, Some Textbook Content Available for Free 19 June 2013 © Elm City Consulting, LLC 2013 32 http://www.infodocket.com/2013/05/08/new-partnership-sage-will-make-some-textbook-content-available-for- free-to-coursera-faculty-students/ http://www.marketwire.com/press-release/coursera-announces-pilot-program-with-publishers-supplement-online- courses-with-high-1788086.htm Note: Elsevier has already provided free access to an engineering course textbook used in an edX class As reported in Library Journal and Market Wire Headline:
    • MOOC Platform Players Attract Venture Funding  The adaptive platform players are generally earlier-stage businesses, and many are actively pursuing partnership opportunities with leading publishers, service providers, and institutions. Simultaneously, established companies are tracking the progress of these players, and this segment will likely see considerable investment and M&A activity over the next 12-18 months.  Elm City Consulting is watching this space and MOOC platforms to see how consolidation and relationships change over the next two years 19 June 2013 © Elm City Consulting, LLC 2013 33
    • Comments?  Contact: Pat Sabosik, President Elm City Consulting, LLC psabosik@elmcityconsulting.com 19 June 2013 © Elm City Consulting, LLC 2013 34