Big Call July 2012

Big Call July 2012



Consumer insights and analysis in less than 30 minutes. Plus a special report on Back to School and Back to College spending!

Consumer insights and analysis in less than 30 minutes. Plus a special report on Back to School and Back to College spending!



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Big Call July 2012 Big Call July 2012 Presentation Transcript

  • The BIG Call July 2012 PA M E L A G O O D F E L L O W CONSUMER INSIGHTS DIRECTOR, BIGINSIGHT™ GUEST CONTRIBUTOR: E L L E N D AV I SS E N I O R V I C E P R E S I D E N T, N AT I O N A L R E TA I L F E D E R AT I O N E X E C U T I V E D I R E C T O R , N R F F O U N D AT I O N 400 W. Wilson Bridge Road, Suite 200, Worthington, OH, 43085 614-846-0146
  • July 2012 Consumer Survey  July 2012 Results • Consumer Confidence • Employment Outlook • Practical Purchasing • 90 Day Outlook: Future Purchase Plans • Holiday 2012 Spending Preview  Back-to-School Overview with Ellen Davis, NRF SVP This report is derived from the following studies: • BIGinsight™ Monthly Consumer Survey, July 2012 (N = 8509, respondents surveyed 7/2 – 7/9/12) • BIGinsight™ Monthly Consumer Survey Trends, July 2007 – July 2012 Disclaimer: BIGinsight™ is a trademark of Prosper Business Development Corp. Services are delivered by Prosper and/or a Prosper affiliated company (“Prosper”). Prosper makes no warranties, either expressed or implied, concerning: data gathered or obtained from any source; the present or future methodology employed in producing the statistics; or the data and estimates represent only the opinion of Prosper and reliance thereon and use thereof shall be at the user’s own risk.© 2012, Prosper®
  • Consumer ConfidenceConfident/Very Confident in Chances for a Strong EconomyAdults 18+ 40%  Highlights: 35% • Economic sentiment perks up 32.8%  Up 1+ points from June 30%  Ends two month confidence slide 31.3% • Highest confidence reading 26.5% 25% headed into the Back-to-School season since Jul-07 (47.8%) 20% 15%© 2012, Prosper® Source: BIGinsight™ Monthly Consumer Survey, JUL 11-12
  • Consumer ConfidenceConfident/Very Confident in Chances for a Strong EconomyAdults 18+ 30%+ 50% decline 40% from 45% Jul-07 35% 40% 32.8% 35% 30% 30% 31.3% 25% 26.5% 25% 20% 15% 20% 10% 47.8% 18.8% 27.2% 27.9% 26.5% 31.3% 32.8% 5% 15% 0% Jul-07 Jul-08 Jul-09 Jul-10 Jul-11 Jun-12 Jul-12© 2012, Prosper® Source: BIGinsight™ Monthly Consumer Survey, JUL 07-12
  • Employment OutlookRegarding the U.S. employment environment, over the next 6 months, do you think that therewill be more, the same, or fewer layoffs than at present?Adults 18+  Highlights: More Same Fewer U.S. Unemployment Rate* • One in four expecting “more” 100% 9.6% layoffs over the next six months 90% 18.7% 9.4%  Down slightly from June  Thinking bullishly headed into U.S. Unemployment Rate* 80% 9.2% holiday hiring season? 9.4%* Layoff Predictions 70% 9.0% • Fewer than one in five calling 60% 9.1% 8.8% for “fewer” layoffs 55.4%  Figure has remained relatively 50% 8.6% stagnant over the past three 40% 8.2% 8.4% years 30% 8.2% 8.2% • Employment mantra = more of 20% 8.0% the “same.” 30.8% 29.6% 27.0% 10% 25.9% 7.8%  Is more of the same “good” when the unemployment rate 0% 7.6% remains in 8-9% territory? Jul-10 Jul-11 Jun-12 Jul-12 • Personal concerns about becoming laid off uptick in July * U.S. Unemployment Rate for the previous month for each corresponding MMM-YY, as reported by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.© 2012, Prosper® Source: BIGinsight™ Monthly Consumer Survey, JUL 10-12
  • Practical PurchasingIn the last 6 months, have you made any of the following changes?Adults 18+60%  Highlights:58% • Practicality off slightly from June56% as more consumers cite confidence in the economy54%  Nearly half pragmatic in52% spending (47.8%)50%  Down a few points from Jul-48% 11 (49.9%)46% • 56.1% are focused on just the necessities44%  Up more than a point from42% June, but down two points40% from a year ago Jul-11 Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul-12 • Spending Rebound? I have become more practical and realistic in my purchases  Not so fast: indicators I focus more on what I NEED rather than what I WANT remain well ABOVE rates recorded before the “Great Recession”© 2012, Prosper® Source: BIGinsight™ Monthly Consumer Survey, JUL 11-12
  • BIG Forward Look: 90 Day SpendingOver the next 90 days (July, August, and September), do you plan on spending more, the sameor less on the following items than you would normally spend at this time of the year?Adults 18+ Retail Merchandise Categories - 90 Day Outlook (Jul-12 compared to Jun-12, Jul-11, and Jul-10) Category: Jun-12 Jul-11 Jul-10 Category: Jun-12 Jul-11 Jul-10 Children’s up up up Toys/Games down up up Women’s Dress down up up CDs/DVDs/Videos/Books down up up Women’s Casual down up up Electronics down up up Men’s Dress down up up Groceries down up up Men’s Casual down up up Home Improvement down up up Shoes flat up up Lawn & Garden down up up HBC up up up Home Furniture flat up up Dining Out down up up Home Décor down up up Sporting Goods down up up Linens/Bedding/Draperies down up up Note: “Up,” Down,” “Flat” refers to the direction of the Diffusion Index compared to the previous month (Jun-12) or years (Jul-11, Jul-10). Diffusion Index = % Spending More - % Spending Less.© 2012, Prosper® Source: BIGinsight™ Monthly Consumer Survey, JUL 10-12
  • Holiday 2012 Spending PreviewBased on your present situation and feelings toward the economy, which of the following bestdescribes your plans for the December Holiday Season?Celebrants who have Holiday Spending Plans in Mind  Highlights: 60% • 28.1% say “it’s too early” to know 50% 46.3% • Among those with spending plans in 43.4% mind: 40%  One in ten plans to spend more, 30% up from 6.5% last year  Vast majority spending the same 20% (46.3%) or less (43.4%) 10% 10.2% • For more, click over to the BIG Consumer Blog 0%  Spending plans among Jul-09 Jul-10 Jul-11 Jul-12 Generations I plan on spending more for gifts than last year. I plan on spending the same for gifts as last year.  Pinterest’s possible influence Gen I plan on spending less for gifts than last year. Y’s gift decisions  Which groups are most likely to Generation Gap: opt for Layaway? Holiday 2012 Spending Preview© 2012, Prosper® Source: BIGinsight™ Monthly Consumer Survey, JUL 09-12
  • The Economy: Where We’ve Been, Where We’re Going  Retail sales expected to grow 3.4% this year • First half 2012 sales grew 4.5% • Factors behind growth  Warm weather  Inflation© 2012, Prosper®
  • Back to School, Back to College 2012  Combined spending to total $84 billion  Average parent of K-12 student to spend about $690  Average parent of college student to spend about $900© 2012, Prosper®
  • Why the increase?  Replenishment • Replace what children had to “make-do” with last school season  Population growth • More children entering elementary and middle school© 2012, Prosper®
  • Economy Remains Top of Mind  More comparison shopping online  Shopping earlier • Begin shopping at least two months before the start of school:  2007 = 14.6%  2012 = 22.3%  It’s not all bad news© 2012, Prosper®
  • What’s Different This Year Electronics spending • 54.0% of BTC shoppers say they will buy a new computer, MP3 player, smartphone or other device, up from 45.8% last year. • College freshmen will spend the most on electronics this back-to- school season. More empty nesters© 2012, Prosper®
  • Retailers’ Recipe for Success Strong promotions Lower inventory Earlier marketing© 2012, Prosper®
  • Holiday Implications  What this tells us  What this doesn’t© 2012, Prosper®
  • Contact 400 W. Wilson Bridge Road Suite 200 Worthington, OH 43085 Ph: 614-846-0146 for complimentary insights: National Retail Federation Back-to-School Headquarters© 2012, Prosper®