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American Pulse Election 2012 Homestretch Report
 

American Pulse Election 2012 Homestretch Report

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    American Pulse Election 2012 Homestretch Report American Pulse Election 2012 Homestretch Report Presentation Transcript

    • American Pulse™ Election 2012 Homestretch Report October-2012 3,615 respondents participated in the 2nd October American Pulse conducted 10/23-10/29/2012. Margin of error is +/- 1.6%. BIGinsight™ 400 W. Wilson Bridge Rd. Suite 200 Worthington, OH 43085 Ph: 614-846-0146© 2012, Prosper®
    • Domestic Issues© 2012, Prosper®
    • Confidence in Government’s Economic Policy - Economy Confident/Very Confident Government’s Economic Policy Will Get the Economy Back on Track (Likely Voters) 40% 35.3% 36% 32% 28% 25.9% 24% 20% Jan-12 Feb-12 Mar-12 Apr-12 May-12 Jun-12 Jul-12 Aug-12 Sep-12 Oct-12 While confidence in the government’s economic policy to get the economy back on track has increased since the summer months, still just more than a third of those likely to vote in the next week are confident/very confident. Source: American Pulse™ Survey, January-October 2012© 2012, Prosper®
    • Confidence in Government’s Economic Policy - Employment Confident/Very Confident Government’s Economic Policy Will Help Lower Unemployment (Likely Voters) 40% 8.4 34.1% 35% 8.3 8.3 8.2 30% 24.4% 8.1 25% 8 20% 7.9 15% 7.8 7.8 Likely Voters 10% 7.7 Unemployment Rate (Civilian) 5% 7.6 0% 7.5 Jan-12 Feb-12 Mar-12 Apr-12 May-12 Jun-12 Jul-12 Aug-12 Sep-12 Oct-12 Recent drops in the unemployment rate seem to have improved voter confidence in the government’s economic policy to help lower unemployment. Sources: American Pulse™ Survey, January-October 2012, U.S. Department of Labor: Bureau of Labor Statistics© 2012, Prosper®
    • Despite Improving Confidence, Most Say Economy Heading in Wrong Direction Do you think the economy is heading in the right direction? (Likely Voters) How would you rate the overall state of the economy? Yes 34.4% (Likely Voters) No 52.0% Excellent: 3.0% Good: 25.5% Neutral 13.7% Poor: 48.8% Terrible: 22.6% Although confidence in economic policies has picked up, the majority of Likely Voters don’t think the economy is heading in the right direction. Nearly half say the current state of the economy is poor while another 22.6% say it’s terrible. Source: American Pulse™ Survey, October 2012 #2, N=3615© 2012, Prosper®
    • Voters Don’t Appear Pleased with Obama’s Performance Regarding the Economy How would you rate President Obama for his performance in the following areas over the past 4 years?: Economy 50% 45% Likely Voters 40% 37.2% 35% 33.2% Likely Catholic 30% Voters 25% 21.5% Likely Blue Collar 20% Voters 15% 8.1% Likely Walmart 10% Mom Voters 5% 0% Excellent Good Poor Terrible While one-third of Likely Voters say President Obama has done a “Good” job with the economy in the past four years, more Voters are likely to say his job was “Poor” or “Terrible.” Blue Collar Workers were most likely to say “Terrible.” Source: American Pulse™ Survey, October 2012 #2, N=3615© 2012, Prosper®
    • Majority Know Someone Utilizing Government Assistance Do you know anyone who uses…: (YES) Likely Likely Likely Blue Likely Walmart Voters Catholic Voters Collar Voters Mom Voters Unemployment benefits 53.9% 55.9% 57.7% 57.7% Food stamps (SNAP, WIC, etc.) 55.1% 52.8% 61.2% 69.0% Medicare 82.1% 86.4% 75.5% 80.5% Medicaid 61.0% 62.7% 66.7% 71.7% Social Security benefits 87.0% 90.2% 85.5% 87.0% Disability benefits 63.4% 62.3% 60.4% 70.0% The majority of Likely Voters know at least one person who receives government assistance programs such as unemployment or disability benefits, food stamps, Medicare or Medicaid. More Walmart Moms and Catholics appear to know citizens receiving these benefits, a likely influence on the upcoming election. Source: American Pulse™ Survey, October 2012 #2, N=3615© 2012, Prosper®
    • Voters Divided on National Security Overall, how do you think the safety of Which presidential candidate would you trust most to the United States has changed from 4 handle a terrorist situation such as September 11th? years ago (2008)? (Likely Voters) (Likely Voters) Barack Obama Mitt Romney 60% Safer 50% 34.0% No 40% change 30% 29.1% 20% Less safe 10% 36.9% 0% Likely Voters Likely Catholic Likely Blue Likely Walmart Voters Collar Voters Mom Voters Likely Voters are divided when it comes to the safety of the United States—while over 1 in 3 say the country is safer, 36.9% also claim the country is less safe. In addition, voter groups are split on which candidate would be best at handling a terrorist attack: Obama has an edge with the Walmart Moms while Blue Collar Workers favor Romney. Source: American Pulse™ Survey, October 2012 #2, N=3615© 2012, Prosper®
    • Voters Say Different Races and Ethnic Groups Have Moved Farther Apart in the Past Four Years Do you think the racial/ethnic divide in the United States has grown or shrunk in the past 4 years? (Likely Voters) 100% 3.1% 2.1% 1.3% 4.3% 90% 13.0% 12.9% 12.2% 14.6% 80% 5 – Shrunk a lot 70% 27.4% 27.7% 29.3% 28.6% 4 – Shrunk somewhat 60% 50% 3 – Hasn’t changed 25.9% 40% 28.5% 31.6% 26.5% 30% 2 – Grown somewhat 20% 32.9% 1 – Grown a lot 10% 26.1% 26.1% 26.0% 0% Likely Voters Likely Catholic Likely Blue Collar Likely Walmart Voters Voters Mom Voters More Likely Voters feel as if the racial/ethnic divide in the United States has grown in the past 4 years. Fewer than 1 in 5 of each segment say the divide has shrunk somewhat or a lot. Source: American Pulse™ Survey, October 2012 #2, N=3615© 2012, Prosper®
    • Election Uncertainty More Likely to Impact Spending How has the uncertainty of the 2012 Presidential How has the uncertainty of the 2012 Presidential Election impacted your life decisions? Election impacted your spending? (Likely Voters) (Likely Voters) Delaying moving 10.5% Decreasing overall spending 39.9% Delaying retirement 10.0% Reducing dining out 28.1% Delaying changing jobs 9.6% Doing more comparative Delaying paying off debt 9.1% 26.7% shopping Delaying buying a house 9.0% Paying down debt 25.1% Delaying further education 8.6% Delaying a major purchase 25.0% Delaying retirement saving 8.3% (car, TV) Delaying starting/adding to Increasing savings 17.5% 4.4% family Other 4.1% Other 2.1% Delaying getting married 4.0% 56.3% The uncertainty of the election 37.6% The uncertainty of the election hasn’t impacted my… hasn’t impacted my life… 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 0.0% 20.0% 40.0% 60.0% Most life decisions are not affected by the unknown election outcome, but some Likely Voters say they are delaying moving or retiring. Also, decreasing spending is popular in the weeks leading up to the election. Source: American Pulse™ Survey, October 2012 #2, N=3615© 2012, Prosper®
    • 1 in 4 Waiting Until After Election to Decide Holiday Budget How will the uncertainty of the 2012 Presidential Election impact your holiday plans? Are you waiting until after the election to do any of the following? (Likely Voters) Decide my overall budget 26.8% Key Likely Voter Decide who I am purchasing Segments: 14.6% gifts for (Waiting until after the Decide how much I will donate to 13.5% election to…) charity (or not to donate at all) Decide travel arrangements/get- Decide my overall budget 13.0% together details Blue Collar: 39.4% Catholics: 27.0% Start shopping 12.6% WMT Moms: 21.8% Decide whether or not to 7.9% Decide who to purchase for celebrate the holidays Blue Collar: 22.3% Other 1.5% Catholics: 18.8% WMT Moms: 12.7% The uncertainty of the election 54.8% won’t impact my holiday plans… 0.0% 10.0% 20.0% 30.0% 40.0% 50.0% 60.0% Blue Collar workers appear to be more influenced by the uncertainty of the election when it comes to deciding holiday budgets and who will receive gifts. Source: American Pulse™ Survey, October 2012 #2, N=3615© 2012, Prosper®
    • International Issues© 2012, Prosper®
    • Romney More Likely to Boost Confidence in Foreign Policy If _______ is elected President in November, would your confidence in foreign policy… (Likely Voters) 45% 38.5% 37.8% 39.0% 40% 35.5% Key Likely Voter 35% Segments: 30% (Increase Confidence) 26.0% 25% 23.2% Blue Collar: Romney 20% (40.8%) 15% Catholics: Romney 10% (38.8%) 5% WMT Moms: Romney 0% (35.5%) Increase Stay the Decrease Increase Stay the Decrease Same Same Obama Romney More Likely Voters would experience an increase in confidence in foreign policy if Mitt Romney is elected as President in November. Source: American Pulse™ Survey, October 2012 #2, N=3615© 2012, Prosper®
    • Voters Divided on Who to Trust with Foreign Affairs Which presidential candidate would you trust most to handle foreign affairs in general? (Likely Voters) 60% 50% 40% 30% Barack Obama 20% Mitt Romney 10% 0% Likely Voters Likely Catholic Likely Blue Collar Likely Walmart Voters Voters Mom Voters Likely Catholic and Blue Collar Voters are more likely to trust Romney with foreign affairs; Walmart Moms place their trust in the incumbent. Source: American Pulse™ Survey, October 2012 #2, N=3615© 2012, Prosper®
    • Strengthening the United States as a World Power Which presidential candidate do you think would be Do you think the US is gaining or losing better at strengthening the United States as a world power in the world? power? (Likely Voters) (Likely Voters) Barack Obama Mitt Romney 60% 3.7% 50% 11.9% 26.9% 40% 25.0% 30% 20% 32.4% 10% 0% Likely Voters Likely Catholic Likely Blue Likely Walmart 1 - Losing a lot of power Voters Collar Voters Mom Voters 2 - Losing some power 3 - Not gaining or losing power Most Likely Voters agree that the US is losing power in 4 - Gaining some power the world—and they believe Romney would be the best 5 - Gaining a lot of power candidate to strengthen the country. Source: American Pulse™ Survey, October 2012 #2, N=3615© 2012, Prosper®
    • Top Countries of Concern How concerned are you about the relationship between the United States and each of the following countries? (Somewhat/Very Concerned) Top 8 Likely Likely Likely Blue Likely Walmart Voters Catholic Voters Collar Voters Mom Voters Iran 83.7% 85.8% 76.9% 84.3% Afghanistan 76.7% 80.0% 73.3% 78.8% Pakistan 75.7% 79.5% 71.6% 70.9% North Korea 75.0% 78.1% 66.5% 74.5% Iraq 73.2% 76.7% 73.2% 80.0% China 70.6% 71.5% 61.6% 66.7% Libya 70.5% 74.4% 69.4% 71.4% Egypt 59.5% 63.4% 49.0% 56.1% Iran, Afghanistan and Pakistan are the top countries Likely Voters are worried about. North Korea, Iraq and China follow. Source: American Pulse™ Survey, October 2012 #2, N=3615© 2012, Prosper®
    • Election 2012© 2012, Prosper®
    • Majority Are Excited to Vote Are you excited to vote in the 2012 Presidential Election? (Likely Voters) Likely Likely Likely Likely Blue Walmart Voters Catholic Collar Mom 1 – Not at All Excited 7.0% 7.0% 6.3% 8.6% 2 – Not Very Excited 7.4% 5.2% 7.9% 7.0% 3 – Neutral 15.7% 18.3% 20.5% 15.8% 4 – Somewhat Excited 20.9% 18.3% 19.8% 16.5% 5 – Very Excited 49.0% 51.2% 45.5% 52.1% Somewhat/Very Excited 69.9% 69.5% 65.3% 68.6% 7 in 10 Likely Voters are pumped to have their voices heard at the polls. Blue Collar Voters, however, are a little less excited. Source: American Pulse™ Survey, October 2012 #2, N=3615© 2012, Prosper®
    • Who do Likely Voters Side With on Major Issues? Likely Voters tend to Role of Government lean to the right when it comes to the Top 5 voting issues for Taxes Election 2012. Healthcare President Obama’s strongest issue Economic Recovery among these appears to be Healthcare, as more Likely Voters Job Creation side entirely or more with Obama on this 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% issue compared to Entirely with Obama others. More with Obama than Romney However, Romney is Neither still on top in this More with Romney than Obama category. Entirely with Romney Source: American Pulse™ Survey, October 2012 #1, N=3529© 2012, Prosper®
    • Who do Likely Voters Side With on Major Issues? Catholics Blue Collar Workers WMT Moms Side with… Side with… Side with… Mitt Romney for… Mitt Romney for… Barack Obama for… Role of government: Role of government: Taxes: 45.7% 52.6% 45.6% Healthcare: 45.9% Taxes: 50.2% Taxes: 47.9% Healthcare: 50.0% Healthcare: 48.5% Mitt Romney for… Economic Recovery: Economic Recovery: Role of government: 53.3% 51.9% 43.7% Job Creation: 52.5% Job Creation: 51.2% Economic Recovery: 44.3% Job Creation: 43.3% While Likely Catholic and Blue Collar Voters are more likely to side with Romney than Obama on key issues, Walmart Moms differ. They lean towards the left when it comes to taxes and healthcare. Source: American Pulse™ Survey, October 2012 #1, N=3529© 2012, Prosper®
    • Does Obama Deserve Reelection? To what extent do you agree with the following statement?: President Obama deserves reelection. Somewhat/Strongly Agree Neither agree nor disagree Somewhat/Strongly Disagree Likely Voters Likely Catholic Likely Blue Collar Likely Walmart Mom 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% While Likely Voters are more split, Blue Collar Workers and Catholics appear more sure that President Obama does not deserve another term. Source: American Pulse™ Survey, October 2012 #2, N=3615© 2012, Prosper®
    • Jobs & Government Assistance are Voting Concerns for Many Which of the following will likely influence your vote in this year’s presidential election? (Somewhat/Very Likely) 60% 50% Likely Voters 40% 30% Likely Catholic Voters 20% Likely Blue Collar Voters 10% Likely Walmart Mom Voters 0% Concern for losing my job Concern of a pay Ability to find a new job of government assistance cut Concern with loss Many voters will consider their job status when going to the polls. 42.3% of Likely Voters are somewhat/very likely to be influenced by the ability to find a new job. Blue Collar workers are more concerned than other voters about losing a job or taking a pay cut while Walmart Moms are more concerned with losing government assistance. Source: American Pulse™ Survey, October 2012 #2, N=3615© 2012, Prosper®
    • 4 in 10 Say Election Results Could Lead to Social Unrest How likely do you think it is that the result of the 2012 Presidential Election could lead to social unrest? Somewhat/very likely Neither likely nor unlikely Somewhat/very unlikely Likely Voters Likely Catholic Voters Likely Blue Collar Voters Likely Walmart Mom Voters 0.0% 10.0% 20.0% 30.0% 40.0% 50.0% 60.0% Nearly half of Likely Blue Collar Voters think the results of the election could lead to social unrest. Source: American Pulse™ Survey, October 2012 #2, N=3615© 2012, Prosper®
    • A Look at Likely Voters Top 5 Election Issues Influences on Voting Decision • Economy 76.2% Social issues/civil rights Personal financial situation • Healthcare 63.8% Religion/morals Upbringing • Taxes 55.1% Employer or job field Political party affiliation • Job Creation 51.8% None of these • Government Spending 51.2% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% Concern for Election Outcome Who will you vote for? 4.6% 1.1% 1 – Don’t care at all 2.3% 2 – Don’t care very much Barack Obama 45.9% 3 – Neutral Mitt Romney 4 – Care somewhat Gary Johnson 5 – Care very much Undecided 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% Other 46.1% Source: American Pulse™ Survey, October 2012 #2, N=3615© 2012, Prosper®
    • A Look at Catholic Likely Voters Top 5 Election Issues Influences on Voting Decision • Economy 82.1% Personal financial situation Social issues/civil rights • Healthcare 67.9% Religion/morals Upbringing • Taxes 57.5% Employer or job field • Job Creation 55.8% Political party affiliation None of these • Government Spending 53.2% 0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% 25.0% Concern for Election Outcome Who will you vote for? 1 – Don’t care at all 3.1% 1.1% 0.6% 2 – Don’t care very much 43.3% Barack Obama 3 – Neutral Mitt Romney 4 – Care somewhat Gary Johnson 5 – Care very much Undecided 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% Other 51.8% Source: American Pulse™ Survey, October 2012 #2, N=3615© 2012, Prosper®
    • A Look at Blue Collar Likely Voters Top 5 Election Issues Influences on Voting Decision • Economy 76.2% Social issues/civil rights Personal financial situation • Taxes 60.0% Employer or job field • Healthcare 55.0% Religion/morals Upbringing • Government Spending 54.3% Political party affiliation • Job Creation 50.7% None of these 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% Concern for Election Outcome Who will you vote for? 1 – Don’t care at all 6.4% 1.6% 2 – Don’t care very much 3.8% Barack Obama 3 – Neutral 40.2% Mitt Romney 4 – Care somewhat Gary Johnson 5 – Care very much Undecided 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% Other 48.0% Source: American Pulse™ Survey, October 2012 #2, N=3615© 2012, Prosper®
    • A Look at Walmart Mom Likely Voters Top 5 Election Issues Influences on Voting Decision • Economy 74.5% Social issues/civil rights Personal financial situation • Healthcare 65.1% Religion/morals • Taxes 55.4% Political party affiliation Upbringing • Job Creation 51.6% Employer or job field None of these • Government Spending 49.9% 0% 10% 20% 30% Concern for Election Outcome Who will you vote for? 1 – Don’t care at all 3.1% 6.0% 0.8% 2 – Don’t care very much 49.2% Barack Obama 3 – Neutral Mitt Romney 4 – Care somewhat Gary Johnson 5 – Care very much Undecided 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% Other 40.8% Source: American Pulse™ Survey, October 2012 #2, N=3615© 2012, Prosper®
    • Ohio A Look at Swing States 0.3% 0.7% Wisconsin Virginia 5.6% Barack Obama 42.3% Mitt Romney Gary Johnson Undecided51.0% Other North Carolina Florida Colorado Iowa Ohio has been known to decide the Presidential Election, and Romney holds the lead in this state, along with NC, CO and VA. Obama has more support in IA and FL, while Wisconsin has the highest percentage of Undecided Voters. Source: American Pulse™ Survey, October 2012 #2, N=3615© 2012, Prosper®
    • Voting Behaviors© 2012, Prosper®
    • What to Do After Voting Which of the following do you do after voting? (Check all that apply) (Likely Voters) Key Likely Voter Segments: Encourage others to go vote Encourage Others to Vote Wear the “I voted today” sticker Catholics: 56.2% Blue Collar: 43.8% Tell others that I voted WMT Moms: 52.7% Ask others if they’ve voted Update Facebook Status Update my status on Facebook Catholics: 10.2% Blue Collar: 11.2% Tell others who I voted for WMT Moms: 26.2% Send a tweet Send a tweet Catholics: 3.7% Post to LinkedIn Blue Collar: 4.1% WMT Moms: 7.8% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% Most of those who are likely to vote this election say they will encourage others to vote. Catholics are the most likely group of those analyzed to do so, while Walmart Moms turn to social media. Source: American Pulse™ Survey, October 2012 #2, N=3615© 2012, Prosper®
    • Voter Fraud is Concern for Majority of Voters To what extent do you agree with the following statements? (Somewhat/Strongly Agree) 90.0% 80.0% 77.1% Likely Voters 70.0% 62.3% 60.0% 54.9% Likely Catholic 50.0% Voters 40.0% Likely Blue Collar 30.0% Voters 20.0% Likely Walmart 10.0% Mom Voters 0.0% Voter fraud is a major issue All voters should be I am concerned that voter in the United States required to show fraud could change the identification outcome of an election The vast majority of Likely Voters think all voters should be required to show identification, and 3 in 5 are concerned voter fraud would change the outcome of an election. Source: American Pulse™ Survey, October 2012 #2, N=3615© 2012, Prosper®
    • Does your vote matter? Most say “Yes!” How much do you think your vote matters? (Likely Voters) Key Likely Voter 12.1% Segments: Doesnt matter very 7.3% much/ at all (Vote matters somewhat/ great deal) Neutral Catholics: 82.8% Matters somewhat/ WMT Moms: 81.6% 80.5% great deal Blue Collar: 81.2% Of those Voters analyzed, Catholics are slightly more likely to feel like their vote counts. Source: American Pulse™ Survey, October 2012 #2, N=3615© 2012, Prosper®
    • Will anything get in the way of your vote this year? Which of the following would stop you from voting this year? (Likely Voters) 77.5% Nothing will Stop Me Key Likely Voter Segments: (Nothing will stop me – I am going to vote no matter what) 9.3% 3.8% 3.4% Illness or Bad weather Blue Collar: 84.6% Too busy disability conditions Catholics: 81.5% WMT Moms: 78.1% The majority say nothing will get in the way of them casting a ballot this year. Blue Collar Workers appear to be the most determined. Source: American Pulse™ Survey, October 2012 #2, N=3615© 2012, Prosper®
    • Contact For media inquiries: Chrissy Wissinger, Senior Manager, Communications chrissy@biginsight.com Randi Honkonen, Analyst randi@biginsight.com 614-846-0146DisclaimerAmerican Pulse™ is a trademark of Prosper Business Development. Services are delivered by Prosper and/ora Prosper affiliated company (“Prosper”). Prosper makes no warranties, either expressed orimplied, concerning: data gathered or obtained from any source; the present or future methodology employedin producing statistics; or the data and estimates represent only the opinion of Prosper and reliance thereonand use thereof shall be at the user’s own risk.