808 Qld Resi View Brisbane Northern Link Tunnel Report


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808 Qld Resi View Brisbane Northern Link Tunnel Report

  1. 1. RESIVIEW August 2008, Brisbane Northern Link Tunnel Report Brisbane Northern Link Tunnel Report KEY PROJECT MILESTONES Dec 2007 - Initial Studies Apr 2008 - Preliminary Concept May 2008 - Concept Design Jun 2008 - Reference Design Sept 2008 - EIS Display IF APPROVED 2009 - Procurement 2010 - Construction 2013-2014 - Operation PROJECT OVERVIEW The Northern Link tunnel is the fourth project in Lord Mayor Campbell Newman’s proposed TransApex ridge and tunnel scheme designed to ease traffic congestion in Brisbane. The Northern Link will directly connect the Western Freeway at Toowong to the Inner City Bypass at Kelvin Grove via a road tunnel, scheduled to open in 2014. The Northern Link proposes to be approximately 6km long, with an estimated 5km of tunnel and will include: · Two separate parallel tunnels, each with two lanes of traffic; · A speed of 80km/hour; · A ventilation system to manage air quality; · Safety systems including emergency exits, fire protection and monitoring systems; · An electronic tolling system with an estimated toll of $3.70
  2. 2. As many daily commuters know, traffic congestion in Brisbane has reached a level where a single incident has the ability to affect the entire motorway network. With Brisbane’s population growing at a August 2008, Brisbane Northern Link Tunnel Report rapid rate and more people living further away from the CBD due to housing affordability, traffic congestion is escalating. In Brisbane’s western suburbs, traffic congestion on key arterials such as Milton Road and Coronation Drive is predominately caused by: · Motorists travelling cross-city and not to the CBD; · Motorists travelling in and out of the CBD; · Lack of connectivity between the Western Freeway and the motorway network; · Freight vehicles moving goods between the western corridor to the Australia TradeCoast region. Recent studies conducted by the Brisbane City Council show an estimated 53,000 vehicles per day currently use Milton Road and 90,000 use Coronation Drive. More than 70% of weekday traffic on Milton Road and Coronation Drive is travelling cross-city and not to the CBD. During morning peak hour traffic, travel speeds can be as slow as 15km/hour on Milton Road and 10km/hour on Coronation Drive. The proposed tunnel is set to commence at the end of the Western Freeway near the Mount Coot-tha roundabout and head Northeast towards the city under Toowong Cemetery. It will then pass under some of Brisbane’s most desirable inner suburbs (Auchenflower, Rosalie/Paddington, Red Hill) before surfacing in Kelvin Grove. Proposed tunnel route ResiView 2
  3. 3. DEMOGRAPHICS August 2008, Brisbane Northern Link Tunnel Report According to the Australian Bureau of Statistics 2006 Census, the majority of residents living in the proposed Northern Link Tunnel investigation area are “Generation X and Y”, typically unmarried and renting, rather than owning their homes or units. Person Characteristics Toowong Auchenflower Paddington/ Red Hill Kelvin Grove Rosalie Total Persons 9,875 5,085 11,660 5,403 4,246 Median Age 27 years 29 years 35 years 32 years 28 years Median Weekly Individual Income $577 $679 $1,016 $687 $569 Median Weekly Family Income $1,602 $1,878 $2,701 $1,955 $1,636 Total Occupied Dwellings 4,422 2,348 5,705 2,310 1,828 Separate House 35.8% 41.5% 2.3% 66.9% 53.6% Unit or Semi Attached 64.0% 58.5% 96.0% 32.6% 45.3%% Tenure Type: Fully Owned 21.8% 21.4% 23.7% 19.1% 17.0% Being Purchased 18.5% 21.6% 21.4% 28.4% 22.2% Rented 49.3% 46.6% 42.8% 45.0% 51.5% Married 28.8% 32.8% 33.7% 32.0% 26.9% Never Married 60.1% 55.6% 52.3% 53.4% 59.6% Separated or Divorced 7.8% 8.6% 11.0% 11.8% 9.1% Widowed 3.3% 3.0% 3.1% 2.9% 4.5% Family Household 43.8% 47.1% 45.2% 50.1% 45.7% Lone Person Household 26.6% 27.1% 33.4% 28.9% 26.3% Group Household 18.9% 14.5% 10.3% 14.1% 19.0% MARKET SNAPSHOT The proposed Northern Link Tunnel passing under Auchenflower, Rosalie/Paddington, Red Hill and Kelvin Grove has raised concerns among local residents regarding the effects it may have on their properties. The Brisbane City Council’s plans for the Northern Link Tunnel could see a number of western suburb homes resumed. Many of these proposed resumed houses and units are located in Toowong, near the tunnel’s entry at Valentine and Frederick Streets as well as Croydon Road. The proposed plan could see Croydon Street swell into a seven lane feeder providing an entry and exit connection to the tunnel. Surrounding thoroughfares such as Milton and Sylvan Roads may be widened to support overflow traffic. The final route and resumptions will not be determined until a consortium is named to build the tunnel, possibly at the end of 2008. The successful tender will nominate what properties need to be resumed based on the project design. Council officers have visited residents whose houses are likely to be resumed or will be directly affected, providing them with project information and answering questions. ResiView 3
  4. 4. According to Terry Baker, Brisbane City Council’s (BCC) Property Acquisition Officer, some measures put into place to assist those whose property(s) may be resumed are as follows: August 2008, Brisbane Northern Link Tunnel Report · Sale prices for part residential property resumptions will be based on a before and after valuation method. The BCC will obtain an independent valuation and fund a further valuation if the owner decides to attain their own; · Sale price for whole residential property resumptions will be based on the current market value; · If the property being resumed is the owner’s primary place of residence, the BCC will pay all relocation costs and stamp duty; · If the property being resumed is an investment, the BCC will only pay market value. However, the BCC has obtained a private tax ruling allowing investors to carry over any capital gains from the resumed property to another within a 12 month timeframe. Some home owners in Brisbane’s western suburbs have already listed their properties for sale hoping to advance the proposed infrastructure and achieve current market value. Local agents are cautious, aware property prices could be effected by public perception of the proposed Northern Link Tunnel infrastructure. According to realestate.com.au, there are approximately 365 houses/units/townhouses currently on the market in Brisbane’s inner western suburbs. It is anticipated that property clearance rates may reduce as the proposed tunnel project gathers momentum and the media is involved. Will proposed large scale infrastructure projects such as the Northern Link Tunnel, aimed to ease traffic congestion and commutes, effect property prices in the short or long term? CB Richard Ellis will monitor clearance rates and any potential changes to the residential market as the Northern Link Tunnel works draw near. SUBURB MEDIAN PRICE REVIEW According to the Residex June 2008 quarter data, the suburbs of Toowong, Red Hill, Auchenflower, Paddington/Rosalie and Kelvin Grove median house and unit prices are significantly higher than the Brisbane median. The June median house and unit price in Brisbane was $452,500 and $350,000 respectively. Overall, unit capital growth in these five suburbs out performed houses last year, however there were twice as many houses sold. As densities increase in and around Brisbane’s CBD, houses in these desirable suburbs are still the number one choice of home buyers with approximately 672 being sold last year. ResiView 4
  5. 5. MEDIAN HOUSE AND UNIT PRICE GROWTH August 2008, Brisbane Northern Link Tunnel Report Suburb Median Capital Capital Median Unit Capital Capital House Price Growth Last Growth 10yr Price Growth Last Growth 10yr Year Average Year Average Toowong $634,000 3.00% 10.43% $409,000 18.06% 10.40% Red Hill $671,000 9.03% 12.07% $430,000 22.56% 11.66% Auchenflower $733,500 12.92% 11.59% $413,000 20.12% 10.03% Paddington/Rosalie $727,500 14.36% 12.91% $449,500 15.46% 10.41% Kelvin Grove $606,000 13.53% 12.39% $403,000 18.83% 10.89% Source – Residex (as at June 2008) Proposed tunnel route and volumetric guide; adjustments are possible as the design evolves and further geotechnical testing completes. INFRASTRUCTURE COMPARISION A similar large scale infrastructure project was completed a year ago in Sydney, New South Wales. The Lane Cove Tunnel would be one of the closest comparisons to the proposed Northern Link Tunnel, given its proximity to the CBD and suburb socio-economics. The Lane Cove Tunnel works commenced in 2004 to provide a vital urban arterial dividing traffic flow between major suburban roads (such as Epping Road), reduce travel time and lessen demand on roads connecting central Sydney to the north-western suburbs. Since the tunnel’s opening in March 2007, traffic in and around Lane Cove, as well as the surrounding areas, has reduced, quietening previous thoroughfares. This reduction in traffic and noise has increased the attractiveness of certain streets, encouraging the return of buyer interest. An observation of Epping Road would suggest that the once grid-locked, traffic polluted road has a new lease on life. Local agents have noticed the properties for sale along Epping Road are attracting home buyers who may not have considered the location previously. ResiView 5
  6. 6. August 2008, Brisbane Northern Link Tunnel Report Regarding specific suburb price movement directly related to the Lane Cove Tunnel, it is difficult to measure. During the tunnel’s last year of construction, the Sydney residential market experienced a period of growth and popular, established suburbs, such as Lane Cove (up 10.6%), saw median house prices increase. The rising market made any directly related effect from the tunnel difficult to quantify. FUTURE AREA DEVELOPMENT Brisbane’s established western suburbs struggle every day with the increasing traffic using Milton Road and Coronation Drive as thoroughfares. The replacement of houses with large scale residential unit development is increasing the area’s density. The popular area’s proximity to the CBD, easy access to major freeways and bypasses, trendy retail and entertainment precincts and Suncorp Stadium all assist to keep buyer enquiry steady, with median property prices averaging 12% growth over the last year to March. Brisbane’s West with its attributes and popular residential market continues to attract developers. Along Milton Road, three large scale residential and mixed use projects are proposed: · FKP’s Union at Milton, a 30 storey residential development with an estimated 191 units scheduled for completion in March 2010; · Pro Vision Developments have a 138 residential project neighbouring FKP’s that will consist of two unit towers of eight and 20 storeys, scheduled for completion in December 2010; and · The largest proposed project is the newly acquired Milton Tennis Court Re-Development. The 2.825-hectare site recently purchased by the Seymour Group is best suited to a large scale, mixed use development with a heavy component of retail and residential. These proposed residential developments and smaller projects in the western suburbs are likely to prove popular and help drive healthy capital growth in the inner western suburbs. Another idea on the drawing board is the Milton Rail Station transit oriented development which proposes turning a five-block area of the inner-city suburb between Milton Road and Coronation Drive into a quot;highly accessible, high-density communityquot;. ResiView 6
  7. 7. CONCLUSION AND OUTLOOK August 2008, Brisbane Northern Link Tunnel Report Given the relatively smooth opening and operation of Sydney’s Lane Cove Tunnel, the proposed Northern Link Tunnel is unlikely to affect the majority of property owners in Toowong, Auchenflower, Paddington/Rosalie, Red Hill and Kelvin Grove. However, those properties located near the tunnel’s entry, exit and connectors are likely to experience greater impact through possible home resumptions, increased construction activity and traffic confusion during the tunnel’s proposed six year construction timeframe. CB Richard Ellis will monitor Brisbane’s western residential market and report on any potential changes directly related to the proposed Northern Link Tunnel. The CB Richard Ellis Valuation business ensures the rationale behind advice is compatible with out clients’ targeted business outcomes, providing independent, fully researched and defendable quality valuations. Our highly regarded professionals consistently generate accurate and timely property advice. They are committed to providing cost effective, commercially based and technically-sound consultancy to our broad range of clients. With a large team of highly respected and motivated residential valuers, CB Richard Ellis Mortgage Valuation Services performs valuations on all categories of residential property. On a day-to-day basis, we complete large volumes of mortgage security valuations for lenders, in addition to undertaking valuations for other purposes. Our experienced professionals utilise a comprehensive sales database and industry leading valuation software, which enables us to provide accurate and timely reporting. With almost 80 fully registered valuers specialising in residential valuations over 11 offices, spread geographically and demographically to suit the needs of our clients and our business, there is a CB Richard Ellis office and valuer near you. ResiView Toni McKnight Senior Manager - Residential Research CBRE Research & Consulting, Pacific Region T 61 7 3833 9773 M 0432 571 724 7