Cone of UncertaintySoftware Estimation: Demystifyingthe Black Art – Steve McConnel
TruismThe organization that most convincinglyunderestimates the project has the highest chanceof being awarded the work.
Highly Structured“High structure implies that the nature of the task definesits outputs, the possibility of users changing their mindsabout the desired outputs is practically nonexistent, andsignificant change management issues are not present.”1Harvard Business School Press (2004-02-19). HarvardBusiness Essentials Managing Projects Large and Small: TheFundamental Skills for Delivering on Budget and on Time(Kindle Locations 220-223). Harvard Business Review Press.Kindle Edition.
Types of ProjectsNew siteSite supportMigration Site to siteNew features/existing site
GoalsRe –usableConsistent formatAble to use in SOWCan be used by PM/SA on Project InceptionMargin Estimation
ConceptsDefensibleTo Dev TeamTo ClientTo Sales Team
PM DefinitionA good estimate is an estimate that provides a clearenough view of the project reality to allow the projectleadership to make good decisions about how to controlthe project to hit its targets..McConnell, Steve (2009-11-30). Software Estimation:Demystifying the Black Art: Demystifying the Black Art(Best Practices (Microsoft)) (Kindle Locations 534-536).OReilly Media - A. Kindle Edition.
Estimation ProcessStrategies to improve EstimatesPrice what you knowKnowing when its different?Ask someone who has done it beforeExamine prior projects
Caution:In a study of 300 software projects, Michiel vanGenuchten reported that developer estimatestended to contain an optimism factor of 20% to30% (van Genuchten 1991).Although managerssometimes complain otherwise, developers don’ttend to sandbag.theirMcConnell, Steve (2009-11-30).Software Estimation: Demystifying the BlackArt: Demystifying the Black Art (BestPractices (Microsoft)) (Kindle Locations1095-1096). OReilly Media - A. KindleEdition
Promet CautionPromet recourses tend not to estimate any relatedtasks to the item they are estimating (Theme, PM,Setup time)
Types of TimeDev timeThemer TimeProject ManagementQuality AssuranceDevOps/Sysadmin
WBSModified Delphi Estimation method.Developed by Rand Corporation in the40sFancy word for list - Work BreakdownStructure (WBS)Make estimate separate and then compare• After lists are made members meet and compare lists. • Everyone must participate. • If there is no conflict and you didnt get any additions you aredoing it wrong.
Translating ClientsCustomers want features in their listOur job is to translate it into features the team cancomplete
The Size of TimeHour sizes 1, 2, 4, 8, 16,Beyond 16 hrsYou don’t know what the task isEasy target for “Shouldn’t this be Lower”