Resultados&discusión hondurasen
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Resultados&discusión hondurasen Resultados&discusión hondurasen Presentation Transcript

  • National and Regional GLOBIO Modelingresults
    Denisse McLean
    Belize, August 2010.
  • Modeling Work in Central America
    Colaboration between Central American Commission (CCAD) – IRBIO - PBL
    In line withthecommitmentsadoptedwith CBD
    First regional evaluationbuiltuponnational individual evaluations
  • Modeling Work in Central America
    Objectives:
    To implement a scientifically supported methodology in the Central American region
    To adapt a global methodology to a regional – national context
    To integrate the topic of biodiversity in the policy making process
    To develop local biodiversity modeling capacity
  • Regional teamcoordination
    Establishment of the regional advanceteam in charge of thefirstmodelingexercise:
    MSA valuerevisionteam
    Scenariodevelopmentteam
    Modelationteam
    Team training in themethodology
    Coordination of linkedwork
  • Local capacitydevelopment
    Training fornationalenvironmentalauthorities’ technicians
    Firstbasic GLOBIOmodelingmethodologyworkshop
    Secondadvanced CLUE land use modelingworkshop
    Input informationexchangefor regional modeling
  • Inputs
    • Spatial inputs
    • Nationalland use maps
    • Road maps
    • Populationdensitymaps
    • Ecosystemmaps
    • Teaminformation
    • Modelparameters
    • Scenarios
    • MSA valuesevaluation
    • GLOBIO impactcategories per pressure
  • Scenariosconsidered
  • Assumptions
    PolicyoptionsbasedonBaselinescenarioprojections
    Independencybetweenoptions
    Political and climaticstability
    Variables relatedtoland use changewereincluded
    The values of some variables wereapproximated
  • Scenario figures
    Supportinformation
    Data series
    Projections
    Files
    Articles
    Sistematiclack of informationforevery country and everyland use
  • Obtainedproducts
    National and regional maps
    Aggregated figures
    Reports
    Data bases
    Developed local capacity
  • Regional Results
  • Regional Results
  • Regional Results
  • Regional Results
  • Regional Results
  • Regional Results - PA
  • Regional Results - PA
  • Regional Results - PA
  • Regional Results - PA
  • NationalResults
  • NationalResults
  • NationalResults
    CurrentState
    BaselineScenario
    ALIDES Scenario
    Free TradeScenario
  • NationalResults
  • NationalResults
  • FollowingSteps
    In thecountries:
    Reportrevision
    Improvement of informationquality
    Comparison of resultsbetweencountries
    Embedding of results in politicalprocesses
    Evaluation of new scenarios
    PARCA III
    FTA EuropeanUnion
    Aquaticecosystem module
  • FollowingSteps
    In the Project:
    Model transfer and follow up
    Resultpresentationtointerestedstakeholders
    Analysis of policyimplications
    Toolimprovements
  • Primer ejercicio metodológico.
    No se trata de un análisis exhaustivo, definitivo, de nivel científico de precisión.
    Existe información más actualizada y/o validada que no pudo ser integrada.
    Por lo tanto, los resultados no se consideran validados ni oficializados por los países.
    Reportclarifications
  • The objective of theexercisewastobuildthefirst preliminar approximationtothestate and trends in biodiversity in terms of the Mean Species Abundancefromthe data available at themoment of modelapplicationaccordingtothesourcesconsultedand todeliverthesemodelstothecountries.
    Reportclarifications
  • The resultswithprovidethecountrieswith a valuabletooltosupporttheirenvironmentalmanagement and decisionmaking. The models can beused as aninstrumenttostimulatediscussion and tointegratethetopic of biodiversityintoothersectorsthroughtheconsideration, planning and design of policyalternatives.
    Reportclarifications
  • Countries are expectedtomaintainthemodelsbyimprovingresultswithupdatedinformation and byevaluating new scenariosand policyoptionsaccordingtoemergingneeds, possibilities and interests in each country orwithinthewholeregion.
    Reportclarifications
  • Isthequality of the input informationenoughto derive conclusionsfromresults?
    Whatconclusions can bederivedfornational and regional policies?
    Whichapplications can bemadewiththeresults and themodels?
    Pointstodiscuss
  • Howtokeepthemodelingcapacity in thecountries?
    Whichpoliticalprocesseswouldbethemostadequatetoembedthemodels?
    Whichaspectstoimprove? F.E. Quality of input information, MSA values, validation
    Isitnecessarytohave a follow up?
    In whichareasshouldthefollow up beimplemented?
    Pointstodiscuss
  • Listthecurrentpolicies in the country thatimpactpositivelyornegativelybiodiversityconservation, protection and use
    Listtheupcomingpolicies in the country thatcouldimpactpositivelyornegativelybiodiversityconservation, protection and use
    Pointstodiscuss
  • Questions and Comments
    Thankyou