Conceptosfundamentales honduras1en

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Conceptosfundamentales honduras1en

  1. 1. Fundamental concepts of GLOBIO and CLUE-S Methodology<br />Denisse McLean<br />Belize, August 2010.<br />
  2. 2. Mean Species Abundance or MSA<br />Single indicatorused in themethodologytoexpressbiodiversity<br />Mean abundance of species in anarearelativeto original abundance in undisturbedstate<br />Assignsthesamerelativeweighttoundisturbedecosystems of differentrichness<br />New orinvasivespecies are excluded<br />Indicator<br />
  3. 3. Natural distribution of a representative set of species<br />Mean Species Abundance<br />
  4. 4. Meassure of theintactnessornaturalness<br /> of anarea<br />Expressedon a scalebetween 0 and 100%<br />Mean Species Abundance<br />MSA<br />MSA<br />MSA<br />Original species<br />Original species<br />Original species<br />
  5. 5. Example: Forest land uses<br />MSA<br />Primary forest<br />100%<br />Selective extraction<br />Secondary vegetation<br />50%<br />Plantations<br />Degraded lands<br />0%<br />5<br />
  6. 6. Land use (intensity and changes)<br />Road infrastructure<br />Natural area fragmentation<br />Climate change<br />Atmospheric Nitrogen deposition<br />Cause-effectrelations of eachpressure has beendeterminedthroughscientificliteraturereview(Alkemade et al., 2009)<br />Pressures evaluated in GLOBIO<br />MSA<br />
  7. 7. Factorsthat determine eachpressureeffect in MSA has beenidentified<br />General impactcategoriesof factorshavebeendeterminedwiththeircorresponding MSA value<br />or<br />Regressionshavebeendevelopedtoestimatethevalue of theindicatoraccordingtothevalue of the factor <br />Pressures evaluated in GLOBIO<br />
  8. 8. Pressures evaluated in GLOBIO<br />
  9. 9. Land use Land use intensity<br />InfrastructureDistancetoroadsPopulationdensityEcosystemtype<br />FragmentationIsolatedpatchsize<br />N DepositionNitrogenExceedance<br />ClimatechangeTemperaturechangeEcosystemtype<br />Pressures evaluated in GLOBIO<br />
  10. 10. MSAtot = MSAluc * MSAinfra * MSAfrag * MSAclim * MSAnitr<br />MSA Estimation<br />Impactlayers per pressurehavetobedetermined<br />Spatialinformation of pressurefactorsiscompiled<br />Informationisreclassifiedintoimpactcategories / regressions are applied<br />Impactlayers are combined<br />
  11. 11. Inputs<br />Land use map<br />Road map<br />Ecosystem/ecorregionmap<br />Nitrogendeposition and critical load map<br />MSA value/regressiontables<br />
  12. 12. 12<br />MSA Estimation<br />
  13. 13. Comparison between scenarios<br />Multiphase modeling<br />13<br />
  14. 14. Comparison between scenarios<br />Information is estimated for the 5 pressures in the future<br />Results: Biodiversity state and distribution trends according to selected scenarios<br />
  15. 15. Additional inputs<br />Futureland use map<br />Futureroadmap (ifprojections are available)<br />Otherpressureexpectedimpacts are adjustedaccordingto new land use and roadmaps<br />
  16. 16. CLUE modelingframework (Verburg, 2002)<br />Modelsthedinamiccompetitionbetweendifferentland use demands in anarea and thefactorsthat determine land use allocation<br />Iterativeprocedure<br />Land use modeling<br />
  17. 17. Land use modeling<br />
  18. 18. Scenariointegration<br />
  19. 19. Futurestatemodeling<br />
  20. 20. Results: Trends<br />
  21. 21. Questions and Comments<br />Thankyou<br />

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