Conceptosfundamentales honduras1en

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  • 1. Fundamental concepts of GLOBIO and CLUE-S Methodology
    Denisse McLean
    Belize, August 2010.
  • 2. Mean Species Abundance or MSA
    Single indicatorused in themethodologytoexpressbiodiversity
    Mean abundance of species in anarearelativeto original abundance in undisturbedstate
    Assignsthesamerelativeweighttoundisturbedecosystems of differentrichness
    New orinvasivespecies are excluded
    Indicator
  • 3. Natural distribution of a representative set of species
    Mean Species Abundance
  • 4. Meassure of theintactnessornaturalness
    of anarea
    Expressedon a scalebetween 0 and 100%
    Mean Species Abundance
    MSA
    MSA
    MSA
    Original species
    Original species
    Original species
  • 5. Example: Forest land uses
    MSA
    Primary forest
    100%
    Selective extraction
    Secondary vegetation
    50%
    Plantations
    Degraded lands
    0%
    5
  • 6. Land use (intensity and changes)
    Road infrastructure
    Natural area fragmentation
    Climate change
    Atmospheric Nitrogen deposition
    Cause-effectrelations of eachpressure has beendeterminedthroughscientificliteraturereview(Alkemade et al., 2009)
    Pressures evaluated in GLOBIO
    MSA
  • 7. Factorsthat determine eachpressureeffect in MSA has beenidentified
    General impactcategoriesof factorshavebeendeterminedwiththeircorresponding MSA value
    or
    Regressionshavebeendevelopedtoestimatethevalue of theindicatoraccordingtothevalue of the factor
    Pressures evaluated in GLOBIO
  • 8. Pressures evaluated in GLOBIO
  • 9. Land use Land use intensity
    InfrastructureDistancetoroadsPopulationdensityEcosystemtype
    FragmentationIsolatedpatchsize
    N DepositionNitrogenExceedance
    ClimatechangeTemperaturechangeEcosystemtype
    Pressures evaluated in GLOBIO
  • 10. MSAtot = MSAluc * MSAinfra * MSAfrag * MSAclim * MSAnitr
    MSA Estimation
    Impactlayers per pressurehavetobedetermined
    Spatialinformation of pressurefactorsiscompiled
    Informationisreclassifiedintoimpactcategories / regressions are applied
    Impactlayers are combined
  • 11. Inputs
    Land use map
    Road map
    Ecosystem/ecorregionmap
    Nitrogendeposition and critical load map
    MSA value/regressiontables
  • 12. 12
    MSA Estimation
  • 13. Comparison between scenarios
    Multiphase modeling
    13
  • 14. Comparison between scenarios
    Information is estimated for the 5 pressures in the future
    Results: Biodiversity state and distribution trends according to selected scenarios
  • 15. Additional inputs
    Futureland use map
    Futureroadmap (ifprojections are available)
    Otherpressureexpectedimpacts are adjustedaccordingto new land use and roadmaps
  • 16. CLUE modelingframework (Verburg, 2002)
    Modelsthedinamiccompetitionbetweendifferentland use demands in anarea and thefactorsthat determine land use allocation
    Iterativeprocedure
    Land use modeling
  • 17. Land use modeling
  • 18. Scenariointegration
  • 19. Futurestatemodeling
  • 20. Results: Trends
  • 21. Questions and Comments
    Thankyou