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Redistricting and Elections




                      Chapter 10
Clicker Question

Are you Here?

       a. Yes
       b. No
Clicker Question
The “Calculus of Voting” suggests that
people will only vote if the ___________
outweigh the __________.
        a. Democrats, Republicans
        b. Issues, Laziness
        c. Benefits, Costs
        d. Costs, Benefits
Clicker Question
Except in rare occasions, boundaries for
congressional and state legislative
districts in the United States are redrawn
by the states every _______ years.
        a. two
        b. ten
        c. twenty
        d. twenty-five
Reapportionment and Redistricting
Reapportionment – Every 10 years the census is used to
  tell us where people have moved (within and across
  states).

Redistricting – Usually, in response to reapportionment
  (but not always), states redraw district lines so that
  their districts achieve basic equality.

Gerrymandering – Redistricting with PURPOSE.
  Partisan and Incumbent usually OKAY, racial is a NO.

Shaw v. Reno, 1993 – Districts based exclusively on
  racial criteria are unlawful.
Districts Gone Wild
Illinois’ 4th District
                         North Carolina’s 12th District
Gerrymandering Techniques
• Packing: Places the opposing party's voters in the
  fewest possible districts, to minimize their influence
  on other districts
• Cracking: Spreading voters of one type over many
  districts where they will comprise minorities that are
  unable to influence elections.
• Hijacking: Separating an incumbent candidate from
  his constituents and placing him or her in a district
  where he or she has no name recognition.
• Kidnapping: Drawing two incumbent candidates into
  the same district so they must run against each other.
Cracking and Packing




Fig. 1 creates 4      Fig. 2 represents an      Fig. 3 portrays an     Fig. 4 portrays an
competitive           incumbent protection      extreme example of     example of
districts, where      or "sweetheart"           packing, where a       cracking, where
there are an equal    gerrymandering            single district is     voters have been
number of voters      plan, in which district   composed solely        divided among a
from each party in    boundaries are draw to    of RED voters, thro    number of
every district.       split the number of       wing the advantage     districts, so that
                      seats evenly between      to the BLUE party in   the RED party holds
                      the parties and to        the remaining three    a 9-7 advantage in
                      insure a strongly         districts.             three districts
                      partisan voting base in                          and BLUE wins just
                      every district.                                  a single district
Cracking
2005 – Georgia’s 12th District
• Oho

                                 Columbus, Ohio
Packing
California’s 23rd District


Democratic
  Packed
  District
Hijacking
2005 – Georgia’s 12th District
                                    John Barrow
                                  was drawn out
                                    of his district
                                   And placed in
                                       the 10th D
                                 but moved back
                                  to the 12th and
                                    won anyway.
Kidnapping
Georgia’s 7th and 11th Districts
                                   Bob Barr and
                                   John Linder
                                   were placed in
                                   the same
                                   district…had to
                                   face off in the
                                   Republican
                                   primary.
Redistricting in Georgia
2000 – Census gives GA +2 districts
Democratic controlled Assembly map
     11th was an attempt to create a majority-
     minority district
2002 – Republicans win control of Gen. Assembly
     Argue that 2001 map splits too many
     communities/counties; creates districts that
     are irregularly shaped; too partisan in nature
2005 – New Map…
2001 Map   2005 Map
2010 Census
Seat Change
District Size
Clicker Question
Would you vote to change the
 redistricting process in
 Georgia?

           a. Yes
           b. No
Campaigns - Median Voter Theory
• Rather than differentiate
  themselves, there are clear incentives
  for candidates to “go to the middle”
  because that’s where the voters are.

• Electoral competition drives parties
  together…

• So, the reason candidates appear to be
  so centrist is because they are both
  competing for “Bob’s” vote in order to
  win.
Median Voter Theory




 Obama      McCain
How Do Voters Decide?
Social Characteristics –
 SES, Religion, Ethnicity
Party Loyalties – Strength of Partisan
 Identification
Candidates –
 experience, decisiveness, personal
 warmth, etc.
Issues
 The Economy – Bush I vs. Clinton
         (“It’s the Economy Stupid”)
Foreign Policy – Wars, International
 Crises
Clicker Question

Which step comes last?

           a. Reapportionment
           b. Census
           c. Redistricting
Clicker Question
Which step comes first?

           a. Reapportionment
           b. Census
           c. Redistricting
Clicker Question
Which step comes second?

          a. Reapportionment
          b. Census
          c. Redistricting

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Chapter 10 - Redistricting

  • 2. Clicker Question Are you Here? a. Yes b. No
  • 3. Clicker Question The “Calculus of Voting” suggests that people will only vote if the ___________ outweigh the __________. a. Democrats, Republicans b. Issues, Laziness c. Benefits, Costs d. Costs, Benefits
  • 4. Clicker Question Except in rare occasions, boundaries for congressional and state legislative districts in the United States are redrawn by the states every _______ years. a. two b. ten c. twenty d. twenty-five
  • 5. Reapportionment and Redistricting Reapportionment – Every 10 years the census is used to tell us where people have moved (within and across states). Redistricting – Usually, in response to reapportionment (but not always), states redraw district lines so that their districts achieve basic equality. Gerrymandering – Redistricting with PURPOSE. Partisan and Incumbent usually OKAY, racial is a NO. Shaw v. Reno, 1993 – Districts based exclusively on racial criteria are unlawful.
  • 6. Districts Gone Wild Illinois’ 4th District North Carolina’s 12th District
  • 7. Gerrymandering Techniques • Packing: Places the opposing party's voters in the fewest possible districts, to minimize their influence on other districts • Cracking: Spreading voters of one type over many districts where they will comprise minorities that are unable to influence elections. • Hijacking: Separating an incumbent candidate from his constituents and placing him or her in a district where he or she has no name recognition. • Kidnapping: Drawing two incumbent candidates into the same district so they must run against each other.
  • 8. Cracking and Packing Fig. 1 creates 4 Fig. 2 represents an Fig. 3 portrays an Fig. 4 portrays an competitive incumbent protection extreme example of example of districts, where or "sweetheart" packing, where a cracking, where there are an equal gerrymandering single district is voters have been number of voters plan, in which district composed solely divided among a from each party in boundaries are draw to of RED voters, thro number of every district. split the number of wing the advantage districts, so that seats evenly between to the BLUE party in the RED party holds the parties and to the remaining three a 9-7 advantage in insure a strongly districts. three districts partisan voting base in and BLUE wins just every district. a single district
  • 9. Cracking 2005 – Georgia’s 12th District • Oho Columbus, Ohio
  • 11. Hijacking 2005 – Georgia’s 12th District John Barrow was drawn out of his district And placed in the 10th D but moved back to the 12th and won anyway.
  • 12. Kidnapping Georgia’s 7th and 11th Districts Bob Barr and John Linder were placed in the same district…had to face off in the Republican primary.
  • 13. Redistricting in Georgia 2000 – Census gives GA +2 districts Democratic controlled Assembly map 11th was an attempt to create a majority- minority district 2002 – Republicans win control of Gen. Assembly Argue that 2001 map splits too many communities/counties; creates districts that are irregularly shaped; too partisan in nature 2005 – New Map…
  • 14. 2001 Map 2005 Map
  • 18. Clicker Question Would you vote to change the redistricting process in Georgia? a. Yes b. No
  • 19. Campaigns - Median Voter Theory • Rather than differentiate themselves, there are clear incentives for candidates to “go to the middle” because that’s where the voters are. • Electoral competition drives parties together… • So, the reason candidates appear to be so centrist is because they are both competing for “Bob’s” vote in order to win.
  • 20. Median Voter Theory Obama McCain
  • 21. How Do Voters Decide? Social Characteristics – SES, Religion, Ethnicity Party Loyalties – Strength of Partisan Identification Candidates – experience, decisiveness, personal warmth, etc. Issues The Economy – Bush I vs. Clinton (“It’s the Economy Stupid”) Foreign Policy – Wars, International Crises
  • 22. Clicker Question Which step comes last? a. Reapportionment b. Census c. Redistricting
  • 23. Clicker Question Which step comes first? a. Reapportionment b. Census c. Redistricting
  • 24. Clicker Question Which step comes second? a. Reapportionment b. Census c. Redistricting

Editor's Notes

  1. The urban (and mostly liberal) concentration of Columbus, Ohio, located at the center of the map in Franklin County, is split into thirds, each segment then attached to—and outnumbered by—largely conservative suburbs.
  2. Bob Barr and John Linder were placed in the same district…had to face off in the Republican primary.
  3. Freshman U.S. Rep. John Barrow of Athens is placed in a newly drawn 10th District with longtime Republican U.S. Rep. Charlie Norwood of suburban Augusta, and Rep. Jim Marshall, a Macon Democrat, will have a much different district with fewer black voters, a traditional gauge of Democratic strength. John Barrow – New 10th but still thereJim Marshall – 3rd to 8th but still thereThese 2 Democrats voted AGAINST the Health Care Bill