Fault treepoker 2010-07-08_release

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Fault treepoker 2010-07-08_release

  1. 1. A Purposeful Game Concept for Risk Analysis Education<br />1<br />08 July 2010<br />A MRG Concept<br />McGill Research Group<br />IST@PENNSTATE<br />
  2. 2. Fault Tree Poker is a purposeful game that aims to educate players on the simple construction and evaluation of fault trees.<br />Through the course of game play, players will be required to setup a fault tree, calculate failure probabilities, understand the impact of incidents on system performance, and learn fault tree analysis terminology<br />2<br />
  3. 3. Materials<br />54 BASIC EVENT cards (blue back)<br />30 LOGIC cards (green back)<br />24 logic gate cards (12 AND, 12 OR)<br />6 failure incident cards<br />12 INSTRUCTION cards (yellow back)<br />4 basic instructions (5 card draw)<br />4 basic calculations<br />4 complex calculations<br />4 VOCABULARY cards (double-sided)<br />OPTIONAL: paper, pencil, calculator<br />3<br />
  4. 4. BASIC EVENT Cards<br />4<br />
  5. 5. 54 Cards Total<br />(one of each)<br />5<br />
  6. 6. LOGIC Cards – Logic Gates<br />6<br />
  7. 7. LOGIC Cards - Incidents<br />7<br />
  8. 8. 30 Cards Total<br />(Twelve of each gate, six incident cards)<br />8<br />
  9. 9. INSTRUCTION Cards - General<br />9<br />
  10. 10. INSTRUCTION Cards – Simple Calculations<br />10<br />
  11. 11. INSTRUCTION Cards – Complex Calculations<br />11<br />
  12. 12. 12 Cards Total<br />(four of each)<br />12<br />
  13. 13. Vocabulary Cards<br />13<br />
  14. 14. Initial Setup<br />Between 2 and 4 players can participate in a match<br />Each player is dealt three (3) BASIC EVENT cards and two (2) LOGIC cards<br />Each player is also handed a set of INSTRUCTION cards and a VOCABULARY card<br />Players must use ALL five of their cards to construct a system with the smallest probability of failure (highest reliability)<br />14<br />
  15. 15. Rules of Play<br />Players have one opportunity to discard and replace up to three cards; options include:<br />Three BASIC EVENT cards<br />Two BASIC EVENT cards + one LOGIC card<br />One BASIC EVENT card + two LOGIC cards<br />Players may discard fewer than three or none at all<br />15<br />
  16. 16. Rules of Play (2)<br />If one or more of the player’s LOGIC cards is an incident, the player must associate a basic event with the incident<br />Incidents induce failures to opponents cards provided:<br />They have the same label (e.g., “A”)<br />The Pf is greater than or equal to the one on the incident card (e.g., B2 would induce a failure in B5, not in C5)<br />16<br />
  17. 17. Rules of Play (3)<br />Player’s who play incident cards must use their remaining cards to construct a system<br />If one incident card is played, the remaining two basic events are connected by the remaining logic – the system is then comprised of three cards. Probability of failure is computed using simple calculations.<br />If two incident cards are played, the remaining one basic event makes up the system. The probability of failure is read straight off the remaining cards.<br />17<br />
  18. 18. Rules of Play (4)<br />It is up to the player to calculate the corresponding probability of failure for their cards<br />It is not enough to rely on patterns – the winner must state that their probability is X, which exceeds his or her opponent’s probability of Y<br />Opponents may challenge the calculation – a credible challenge may cause the player to lose regardless of what the cards say<br />18<br />
  19. 19. Winning Condition<br />The winner is the player with the lowest probability of failure after all cards are played<br />OPTIONAL: If more three or more players play, points may be awarded based on rank, e.g., the highest gets 2 points, lowest zero, middle one point<br />19<br />
  20. 20. Winning Condition (2)<br />If two or more players have the same low probability of failure, the one with the fewest played cards wins (3 versus 5)<br />If these players also have the same number of played cards, the player with the lowest maximum event probability wins<br />OPTIONAL: Winner can also be settled by drawing a basic event card and casting the winner as the one who either:<br />Drew the letter closest to A<br />Drew the event with the lowest probability of failure<br />20<br />
  21. 21. Advanced Version (7 cards)<br />Game play is the same, the difference being that each player is dealt 4 basic event cards and three logic cards<br />The most complicated fault tree may assume one of several more forms<br />String of gates (A AND (B AND (C AND D)))<br />Top level gates ((A AND B) AND (C AND D))<br />More calculations, more options<br />No crutch cards provided to help with calcs<br />21<br />
  22. 22. Real Poker Analogs<br />5 Card Draw – same principle<br />7 Card Stud – use the best five combination<br />May show 2 basic events and 1 gate<br />Or some other scheme<br />Community version – 5 card + 2 basic events and 1 logic card shown for all to use and consider<br />22<br />
  23. 23. Play Gambling<br />Using PLAY MONEY (i.e., Monopoly):<br />Betting as in 5 card draw – bet prior to draw, then again after<br />Betting as in 7 card stud – bet as accumulated<br />Consider capping, raising, calling, etc.<br />Also, can use SUCCESS CHIPS, that is, chips awarded for each win or paid for with $$$<br />23<br />
  24. 24. Who will manufacture Fault Tree Poker?<br />Copies of the game can be purchased at: http://www.thegamecrafter.com/games/fault-tree-poker (http://bit.ly/9zelqP) <br />The cost per set is $20. This consists of 100 game cards in a box. Proceeds from the sale of Fault Tree Poker will be used to support future development and prototyping of games for risk analysis education.<br />24<br />
  25. 25. For more information…<br />Will McGill, PhD, PE, CRE<br />IST@PENNSTATE<br />102L IST Building, University Park, PA 16801<br />(814) 867-0270 or (814) 308-3854<br />wmcgill@ist.psu.edu<br />25<br />

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