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A Purposeful Game Concept for Risk Analysis Education 1 08 July 2010 A MRG Concept McGill Research Group IST@PENNSTATE
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Fault Tree Poker is a purposeful game that aims to educate players on the simple construction and evaluation of fault trees. Through the course of game play, players will be required to setup a fault tree, calculate failure probabilities, understand the impact of incidents on system performance, and learn fault tree analysis terminology 2
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Initial Setup Between 2 and 4 players can participate in a match Each player is dealt three (3) BASIC EVENT cards and two (2) LOGIC cards Each player is also handed a set of INSTRUCTION cards and a VOCABULARY card Players must use ALL five of their cards to construct a system with the smallest probability of failure (highest reliability) 14
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Rules of Play Players have one opportunity to discard and replace up to three cards; options include: Three BASIC EVENT cards Two BASIC EVENT cards + one LOGIC card One BASIC EVENT card + two LOGIC cards Players may discard fewer than three or none at all 15
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Rules of Play (2) If one or more of the player’s LOGIC cards is an incident, the player must associate a basic event with the incident Incidents induce failures to opponents cards provided: They have the same label (e.g., “A”) The Pf is greater than or equal to the one on the incident card (e.g., B2 would induce a failure in B5, not in C5) 16
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Rules of Play (3) Player’s who play incident cards must use their remaining cards to construct a system If one incident card is played, the remaining two basic events are connected by the remaining logic – the system is then comprised of three cards. Probability of failure is computed using simple calculations. If two incident cards are played, the remaining one basic event makes up the system. The probability of failure is read straight off the remaining cards. 17
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Rules of Play (4) It is up to the player to calculate the corresponding probability of failure for their cards It is not enough to rely on patterns – the winner must state that their probability is X, which exceeds his or her opponent’s probability of Y Opponents may challenge the calculation – a credible challenge may cause the player to lose regardless of what the cards say 18
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Winning Condition The winner is the player with the lowest probability of failure after all cards are played OPTIONAL: If more three or more players play, points may be awarded based on rank, e.g., the highest gets 2 points, lowest zero, middle one point 19
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Winning Condition (2) If two or more players have the same low probability of failure, the one with the fewest played cards wins (3 versus 5) If these players also have the same number of played cards, the player with the lowest maximum event probability wins OPTIONAL: Winner can also be settled by drawing a basic event card and casting the winner as the one who either: Drew the letter closest to A Drew the event with the lowest probability of failure 20
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Advanced Version (7 cards) Game play is the same, the difference being that each player is dealt 4 basic event cards and three logic cards The most complicated fault tree may assume one of several more forms String of gates (A AND (B AND (C AND D))) Top level gates ((A AND B) AND (C AND D)) More calculations, more options No crutch cards provided to help with calcs 21
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Real Poker Analogs 5 Card Draw – same principle 7 Card Stud – use the best five combination May show 2 basic events and 1 gate Or some other scheme Community version – 5 card + 2 basic events and 1 logic card shown for all to use and consider 22
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Play Gambling Using PLAY MONEY (i.e., Monopoly): Betting as in 5 card draw – bet prior to draw, then again after Betting as in 7 card stud – bet as accumulated Consider capping, raising, calling, etc. Also, can use SUCCESS CHIPS, that is, chips awarded for each win or paid for with $$$ 23
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Who will manufacture Fault Tree Poker? Copies of the game can be purchased at: http://www.thegamecrafter.com/games/fault-tree-poker (http://bit.ly/9zelqP) The cost per set is $20. This consists of 100 game cards in a box. Proceeds from the sale of Fault Tree Poker will be used to support future development and prototyping of games for risk analysis education. 24
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For more information… Will McGill, PhD, PE, CRE IST@PENNSTATE 102L IST Building, University Park, PA 16801 (814) 867-0270 or (814) 308-3854 wmcgill@ist.psu.edu 25
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