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Decision Making  A Skill We Can Improve Jim Marteney
Population of TurkeyGreater or   Less    Than35,000,000
Population of Turkey78,785,548
Mental Trap    Unconscious mental routine    that leads us to make poor    decisions
Anchoring   TrapInitial impressions,estimates, or dataanchor subsequentthoughts andjudgments.
Anchoring   TrapMind givesdisproportionate weightto thefirst information itreceives.
Status Quo   Trap  We instinctively  stay with  what seems  familiar.
Status Quo   Trap We look for decisions that involve the least change
Status Quo   Trap  More alternatives,  stronger status  quo
Status Quo   Trap  People want to  avoid, “rocking  the boat”
Status Quo   Trap Sins of commission punished more than sins of omission
Justify PastActions Trap more invested in the past, more difficult to change         Don’t cultivate            a fear of ...
Framing  Trap   The way a problem is  worded or “framed” can profoundly influence the     choices one makes
Framing  Trap People are: risk averse when a problem is posed in terms of gains risk seeking when a problem is posed in te...
Framing  Trap Which would you choose?      A sure gain of $3,000      80% chance of winning $4,000      and a 20% chance o...
Framing  Trap Which would you choose?      A sure loss of $3,000      80% chance of losing $4,000      and a 20% chance of...
Framing  Trap    “Bird in the  hand, worth two   in the bush.”
Decision Making How much isinfluenced by    actual   thought?
Two Types of Decisions  Voluntary Decision Making  Involuntary Decision Making
The Critical Thinker   One who refuses to  complacently accept     conclusions, one     who analyzes and    evaluates evie...
The Critical Thinker        unlike the  uncritical thinker     who accepts or          rejects  conclusions, often    on t...
DanielKahneman
DanielKahneman
AmosTversky
Try Their       Test You are at a      Would you go store in one       down to the   end of the      other end of mall abo...
Try Their         TestYou are at a     Would you gostore in one      down to the  end of the     other end ofmall about to...
We Don’t Notice  Everything
LateralThinking     Edward de Bono
LateralThinkingStory of evil money lender, debtor and    his beautiful       daughter
LateralThinkingEngine IntelligenceFuel    KnowledgeTuned   Thinking Smart = the integration of all              three
Identify the Problem“A problem well statedis a problem halfsolved.”                         Charles                       ...
Identify the Problem“The only differencebetween a problem anda solution is thatpeople understand thesolution.”            ...
Identify the Problem“If I had only one hour   to save the world I would spend fifty-five minutes defining theproblem and o...
Identify the ProblemDifference Between     Cause of a Problem     Effect of a Problem
Identify the ProblemFishbone Analysis  Dr. Kaoru Ishikawa
Identify the ProblemFishbone Analysis
Making a Decision     Gut Feeling       Positive, Negative,   Interesting       Cost/Benefit Analysis
Gut Feeling“It is a feeling that youknow, but still have ahard time to explain it”MalcolmGladwell
Gut Feeling“It is a feeling that youknow, but still have ahard time to explain it”MalcolmGladwell
Positive/Negative/Interesti  A good way of  weighing the pros,  cons and implications  of a decision.                     ...
Positive/Negative/Interesti   Positive   What’s good?   Negative   What’s bad?               What would you be   Interesti...
“Should we  charge forthe privilege of carrying the Olympic    Torch?”
Positive/Negative/Interesti     All marriages are no longer     “Till Death do you part.”     Marriages now only last     ...
Cost/Benefit AnalysisEverythinghas a CostMoneyTimePersonnelConfusionBad Feelings
Cost/Benefit AnalysisEverythinghas a CostDoes the Benefitoutweigh thatCost?
Cost/Benefit Analysis
Cost/Benefit Analysis Benefit
Cost/Benefit Analysis  Cost Benefit
Cost/Benefit Analysis           Text   Text   Text           Text   Text   Text           Text   Text   Text  Cost Benefit
Cost/Benefit AnalysisSelect LowHanging Fruit“Targets or goals whichare easily achievableand which do notrequire a lot of e...
Asking the Right Questions    Is there a   Problem?    How Significant is the   Problem?    Structural or   Attitudinal...
Asking the Key Questions   Failed to   ask Key   Question   Did Japanese   households   have   conventional   western ovens?
Now, forthe CaseStudies
Your Turn to Decide
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Introduction to Decision Making

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Transcript of "DecisionmakingPortofLA1"

  1. 1. Decision Making A Skill We Can Improve Jim Marteney
  2. 2. Population of TurkeyGreater or Less Than35,000,000
  3. 3. Population of Turkey78,785,548
  4. 4. Mental Trap Unconscious mental routine that leads us to make poor decisions
  5. 5. Anchoring TrapInitial impressions,estimates, or dataanchor subsequentthoughts andjudgments.
  6. 6. Anchoring TrapMind givesdisproportionate weightto thefirst information itreceives.
  7. 7. Status Quo Trap We instinctively stay with what seems familiar.
  8. 8. Status Quo Trap We look for decisions that involve the least change
  9. 9. Status Quo Trap More alternatives, stronger status quo
  10. 10. Status Quo Trap People want to avoid, “rocking the boat”
  11. 11. Status Quo Trap Sins of commission punished more than sins of omission
  12. 12. Justify PastActions Trap more invested in the past, more difficult to change Don’t cultivate a fear of failure culture
  13. 13. Framing Trap The way a problem is worded or “framed” can profoundly influence the choices one makes
  14. 14. Framing Trap People are: risk averse when a problem is posed in terms of gains risk seeking when a problem is posed in terms of avoiding losses
  15. 15. Framing Trap Which would you choose? A sure gain of $3,000 80% chance of winning $4,000 and a 20% chance of winning nothing
  16. 16. Framing Trap Which would you choose? A sure loss of $3,000 80% chance of losing $4,000 and a 20% chance of losing nothing
  17. 17. Framing Trap “Bird in the hand, worth two in the bush.”
  18. 18. Decision Making How much isinfluenced by actual thought?
  19. 19. Two Types of Decisions Voluntary Decision Making Involuntary Decision Making
  20. 20. The Critical Thinker One who refuses to complacently accept conclusions, one who analyzes and evaluates eviencd in order to distinguish strong reasoning
  21. 21. The Critical Thinker unlike the uncritical thinker who accepts or rejects conclusions, often on the basis of egocentric attachment or unassessed bias.
  22. 22. DanielKahneman
  23. 23. DanielKahneman
  24. 24. AmosTversky
  25. 25. Try Their Test You are at a Would you go store in one down to the end of the other end of mall about to the mall to purchase a purchase thecalculator for same calculator $25 for $20
  26. 26. Try Their TestYou are at a Would you gostore in one down to the end of the other end ofmall about to the mall to purchase a purchase thecomputer for same computer $2000 for $1995
  27. 27. We Don’t Notice Everything
  28. 28. LateralThinking Edward de Bono
  29. 29. LateralThinkingStory of evil money lender, debtor and his beautiful daughter
  30. 30. LateralThinkingEngine IntelligenceFuel KnowledgeTuned Thinking Smart = the integration of all three
  31. 31. Identify the Problem“A problem well statedis a problem halfsolved.” Charles Kettering
  32. 32. Identify the Problem“The only differencebetween a problem anda solution is thatpeople understand thesolution.” Charles Kettering
  33. 33. Identify the Problem“If I had only one hour to save the world I would spend fifty-five minutes defining theproblem and only five minutes finding the solution.” Albert Einstein
  34. 34. Identify the ProblemDifference Between Cause of a Problem Effect of a Problem
  35. 35. Identify the ProblemFishbone Analysis Dr. Kaoru Ishikawa
  36. 36. Identify the ProblemFishbone Analysis
  37. 37. Making a Decision Gut Feeling Positive, Negative, Interesting Cost/Benefit Analysis
  38. 38. Gut Feeling“It is a feeling that youknow, but still have ahard time to explain it”MalcolmGladwell
  39. 39. Gut Feeling“It is a feeling that youknow, but still have ahard time to explain it”MalcolmGladwell
  40. 40. Positive/Negative/Interesti A good way of weighing the pros, cons and implications of a decision. Peter Ueberroth
  41. 41. Positive/Negative/Interesti Positive What’s good? Negative What’s bad? What would you be Interesting curious about?
  42. 42. “Should we charge forthe privilege of carrying the Olympic Torch?”
  43. 43. Positive/Negative/Interesti All marriages are no longer “Till Death do you part.” Marriages now only last 5 years.
  44. 44. Cost/Benefit AnalysisEverythinghas a CostMoneyTimePersonnelConfusionBad Feelings
  45. 45. Cost/Benefit AnalysisEverythinghas a CostDoes the Benefitoutweigh thatCost?
  46. 46. Cost/Benefit Analysis
  47. 47. Cost/Benefit Analysis Benefit
  48. 48. Cost/Benefit Analysis Cost Benefit
  49. 49. Cost/Benefit Analysis Text Text Text Text Text Text Text Text Text Cost Benefit
  50. 50. Cost/Benefit AnalysisSelect LowHanging Fruit“Targets or goals whichare easily achievableand which do notrequire a lot of effort.”
  51. 51. Asking the Right Questions  Is there a Problem?  How Significant is the Problem?  Structural or Attitudinal?  Is there a Solution? Will the Solution Solve the Problem?  What are the negative effects? Negative aspects outweigh the benefits?
  52. 52. Asking the Key Questions Failed to ask Key Question Did Japanese households have conventional western ovens?
  53. 53. Now, forthe CaseStudies
  54. 54. Your Turn to Decide
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