Mental Trap Unconscious mental routine that leads us to make poor decisions
Anchoring TrapInitial impressions,estimates, or dataanchor subsequentthoughts and judgments. Mind gives disproportionate weight to the first information it receives.
Status Quo TrapSins of commision punishedmore than sins of omissionWe instinctively stay withwhat seems familiar.More alternatives, stronger status quoWe look for decisions that involvethe least changePeople want to avoid, “rocking the boat”
Justify PastActions Trap more invested in the past, more difficult to change Don’t cultivate a fear of failure culture
Framing Trap The way a problem is worded or “framed” can profoundly influence the choices one makes
Framing Trap People are: risk averse when a problem is posed in terms of gains risk seeking when a problem is posed in terms of avoiding losses
Framing Trap Which would you choose? A sure gain of $3,000 80% chance of winning $4,000 and a 20% chance of winning nothing
Framing Trap Which would you choose? A sure loss of $3,000 80% chance of losing $4,000 and a 20% chance of losing nothing
Framing Trap Which production schedule would you choose after hearing that if you continue as you are, all 6,000 units will be lost?
Framing Trap Plan A sure production of 2,000 units Plan B a one-third chance that 6,000 units can be produced, two-thirds that no units can be produced.
Framing Trap Plan A sure production loss of 4,000 units Plan B a one-third chance that 6,000 units can be produced
Framing Trap “Bird in the hand, worth two in the bush.”
Critical Thinking Involves a persistent effort to examine any belief or supposed form of knowledge in the light of the evidence that supports it.
Critical Thinking Gives reasoned consideration to evidence, to contexts, to conceptualizations, to methods, and to criteria.
Critical Thinking Reaches factual or judgmental conclusions based on sound inferences drawn from unambiguous statements of knowledge and belief.
Ten Decision Challenges1. Plunging In2. Frame Blindness3. Lack of Frame Control4. Overconfidence in Your Judgment5. Shortsighted Shortcuts
Ten Decision Challenges 6. Shooting From the Hip 7. Group Failure 8. Fooling Yourself About Feedback 9. Not Keeping Track 10. Failure to Audit Your Decision Process
Asking the Right Questions Is there a Problem? How Significant is the Problem? Structural or Attitudinal? Is there a Solution? Will the Solution Solve the Problem? What are the negative effects? Negative aspects outweigh the benefits?
Asking the Key Questions Failed to ask Key Question Did Japanese households have conventional western ovens?
Develop Alternatives Two important steps Ideation Judgment
Develop AlternativesBrainstorming Goal is Quantity No Criticism Build on Ideas
Developing Alternatives“If you only have ahammer, you tend tosee every problem as anail.” Abraham Maslow
Groupthink According to a scathing report released by the Senate Intelligence Committee, the United States went to war with Iraq on the basis of flawed intelligence assessments. The CIA analysts suffered a case of Groupthink that rendered them incapable of considering that Iraq might have dismantled its weapons programs. Senate Intelligence Committee July 10 2004
Groupthink Members avoid being too harsh in their judgments of their leader’s or their colleagues’ ideas. They adopt a soft line of criticism, even in their own thinking.
Groupthink At their meetings, all the members are amiable and seek complete concurrence on every important issue, with no bickering or conflict to spoil the cozy, “we- feeling” atmosphere. ----Psychology Today
Groupthink Symptoms Pressure for Conformity Self-Censorship Illusion of Unanimity Mindguards
GroupthinkNegative Outcomes Examine Few Alternatives Not being critical of each other’s ideas Not examining early alternatives Not seeking expert opinion Gathering Information Selectively Not having contingency plans
Groupthink Avoiding Refrain from stating preference Encourage member’s objections Assign a Devil’s Advocate Seek expert input Call a “Second Chance Meeting” Split into Sub-groups
Groupthink The Key: Someone with the courage to disagree.
Abilene ParadoxThe Mismanagement of Agreement Occurs when a group takes action contrary to the desires of the members and thus, defeats the purpose of the group.
Abilene Paradox “Taking the trip to Abilene” Jerry Harvey
Group ClimateTwo Basic Group Climates Supportive Defensive
Implement AlternativeThere will always be resistance
Implement AlternativeChange has considerableimpact on the human mind. To the fearful, it is threatening because it means things may get worse. To the hopeful, it is encouraging because things may get better. To the confident, it is inspiring because the challenge exists to make things better.
Implement Alternative Obviously then, ones character and frame of mind determine how one relates to change.
“When you assemble a number of (people) to have advantage of their joint wisdom, you assemble with those (people), all theirPrejudices, their passions, their errors ofopinion, their local interest, and theirselfish views.From such an assembly can a perfectproduction be expected?” Ben Franklin Constitutional Convention September 15, 1787
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Thank you, now go make some quality decisions.