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Avery -uwc_-_eu_enlargement

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  • 1. Enlargement of the European UnionWhat Prospects for South-East Europe?
    Graham Avery
    United World College, Duino
    7 December 2010
  • 2.
  • 3. Themes
    The EU’s expansion from 6 to 27
    Who can join the EU?
    What prospects for future enlargement?
    Countries of the Western Balkans
    Turkey, Iceland - and more?
    What prospects for future of the EU?
  • 4. From EC-6 to EU-27
    European political & economic integration
    1950 Schuman Declaration of 9th May
    1952 European Coal & Steel Community
    1957 European Economic Community
    1993 European Union
    For most of its existence, countries have been knocking on the door ...
  • 5. 1952
  • 6. 1973
  • 7. 1981
  • 8. 1986
  • 9. 1990
  • 10. 1995
  • 11. 2004
  • 12. 2007
  • 13. 2010
  • 14. Enlargement : why ?
    Magnetism of EU’s method of integration
    Expansion is driven by
    pressure from countries wanting to join
    not imperial ambition
    Enlargement policy is
    reactive, not proactive
  • 15. Enlargement : who ?
    Treaty on European Union
    (as amended by Lisbon Treaty)
    Article 49: ‘Any European state which respects the values referred to in Article 2 and is committed to promoting them may apply to become a member of the Union’
  • 16. Article 2: ‘The Union is founded on the values of respect for human dignity, freedom, democracy, equality, the rule of law and respect for human rights, including the rights of persons belonging to minorities. These values are common to the Member States in a society in which pluralism, non-discrimination, tolerance, justice, solidarity and equality between women and men prevail’
  • 17. Copenhagen criteria 1993
    Membership requires:
    stability of institutions guaranteeing democracy, rule of law, human rights and respect for and protection of minorities
    existence of functioning market economy and capacity to cope with competitive pressure and market forces within the Union
    ability to take on obligations of membership
  • 18. Situation today
    • Applicants for EU membership:
    Turkey (1987)
    Croatia (2003)
    Macedonia (2004)
    Montenegro (2008)
    Albania, Iceland, Serbia (2009)
    • Potential applicants
    • 19. Bosnia-Herzegovina, Kosovo
    • 20. Others aspiring to EU membership
    • 21. Ukraine etc.
  • European Union
  • 22. Balkan peninsula
  • 23. Western Balkans
  • 24. Western Balkans
    Total population 25 million, of which:
    Serbia (7.3 m), Bosnia-Herzegovina (4.5 m), Croatia (4.5 m), Albania (3.6 m), FYROM/Macedonia (2.1 m), Kosovo (1.8 m), Montenegro (0.7 m)
    Promise of EU membership Thessaloniki 2003
    But slow progress
    Heritage of conflict
    Uncertain frontiers
    External dependence – ‘protectorates’
  • 25. Problems of governance: need to
    improve administration
    strengthen judiciary
    combat organised crime
    combat corruption
    Need to try war criminals
    Cooperation with International Court at Hague
    Progress in visa liberalisation
  • 26. Croatia
  • 27. Croatia
    Applied for EU membership 2003
    Opened accession negotiations in 2004
    Dispute with Slovenia over maritime border
    now resolved
    Good progress, but more reforms needed
    Problems of governance
    Prospects:
    conclude negotiations in 2011?
    join EU in 2013?
  • 28. Macedonia
  • 29. Macedonia/FYROM
    Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia
    Applied for EU membership 2004
    Obtained ‘candidate status’ 2005
    Dispute with Greece over name blocks
    Opening of EU accession negotiations
    Membership of NATO
  • 30. Serbia
  • 31. Serbia
    Resentment of NATO bombing, Kosovo
    Conflict between European & national priorities
    Progress
    Applied for EU membership 2009
    Agreed to bilateral talks with Kosovo 2010
    Prospects
    Many reforms needed
    Biggest country of region
    EU was created on basis of reconciliation
    Vergangenheitsbewältigung
    coming to terms with the past
  • 32. Kosovo
  • 33. Kosovo
    Declaration of independence 2008
    Not fully recognised by members of UN
    Not recognised by some EU members
    Spain, Slovakia, Romania, Greece, Cyprus
    Opinion of International Court 2010
    Prospects
    Many reforms needed
  • 34. Montenegro
  • 35. Montenegro
    Independence from Serbia 2006
    Applied for EU membership 2009
    Prospects
    Many reforms needed
  • 36. Albania
  • 37. Albania
    Applied for EU membership 2009
    Was poorest country of Europe
    Now making progress
    Prospects
    Many reforms needed
  • 38. Bosnia- Herzegovina
  • 39. Bosnia- Herzegovina
    Difficult situation
    Slowest progress of region
    Status of country
    UN ‘protectorate’
    Status of RepublikaSrpska
    ‘state within a state’
  • 40. Turkey
    Longest wait: candidate since 1987
    Biggest candidate: 78m now, 90m in future
    Arguments in favour of membership
    Economic: rapid growth, labour force
    Political: geostrategic position - yes, but ...
    Problems
    Copenhagen criteria: minorities, civil/military relations, freedom of expression
    Cyprus
  • 41. Iceland
    Well qualified under EU’s criteria
    Democracy – Europe’s oldest assembly
    Economy – good despite crisis
    Already applies many EU rules (EEA)
    In Schengen zone (free movement of persons)
    Potential problems
    Fisheries
    Public opinion in Iceland
  • 42. Eastern Partnership
  • 43. The EU’s final frontiers
    In longer term EU may consider other East European countries as potential members:
    Ukraine 47m,Belarus 10m, Moldova 3.6m
    Azerbaijan 9m, Georgia 4.4m, Armenia 3.2m
    Presently in EU’s Neighbourhood Policy
    an ‘accession-neutral’ relationship
    enhanced by Eastern Partnership 2009
    leading to Association Agreements
    Russia?
  • 44. What future for the EU?
    Unique experiment in
    economic & political integration
    Reconciles big & small states
    non-hegemonic
    Expansion to continental scale
    Europe united, whole and free
    Mission of 20th century
    no more war between EU member states
    Mission for 21st century
    project Europe’s interests & values in the world
  • 45. Enlargement of the European UnionWhat Prospects for South-East Europe?
    Graham Avery
    United World College, Duino
    7 December 2010