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  • 2. CivilizationThe West and the Rest ALLEN LANE an imprint of PENGUIN BOOKS
  • 3. ALLEN LANE Published by the Penguin Group Penguin Books Ltd, 80 Strand, London WC2R 0RL, EnglandPenguin Group (USA) Inc., 375 Hudson Street, New York, New York 10014, USA Penguin Group (Canada), 90 Eglinton Avenue East, Suite 700, Toronto, Ontario, Canada M4P 2Y3 (a division of Pearson Penguin Canada Inc.) Penguin Ireland, 25 St Stephen’s Green, Dublin 2, Ireland (a division of Penguin Books Ltd) Penguin Group (Australia), 250 Camberwell Road, Camberwell, Victoria 3124, Australia (a division of Pearson Australia Group Pty Ltd) Penguin Books India Pvt Ltd, 11 Community Centre, Panchsheel Park, New Delhi – 110 017, India Penguin Group (NZ), 67 Apollo Drive, Rosedale, Auckland 0632, New Zealand (a division of Pearson New Zealand Ltd) Penguin Books (South Africa) (Pty) Ltd, 24 Sturdee Avenue, Rosebank, Johannesburg 2196, South Africa
  • 4. Penguin Books Ltd, Registered Offices: 80 Strand, London WC2R 0RL, England www.penguin.com First published 2011 Copyright © Niall Ferguson, 2011 The moral right of the author has been asserted All rights reserved Without limiting the rights under copyright reserved above, no part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in or introduced into a retrieval system, or transmitted, in any form or by any means (electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording or otherwise)without the prior written permission of both the copyright owner and the above publisher of this book ISBN: 978-1-84-614282-6
  • 5. For Ayaan
  • 6. Contents List of Illustrations List of Maps List of Figures Preface to the UK Edition Introduction: Rasselas’s Question1 Competition Two Rivers The Eunuch and the Unicorn The Spice Race The Mediocre Kingdom2 Science
  • 7. The Siege Micrographia Osman and Fritz Tanzimat Tours From Istanbul to Jerusalem3 Property New Worlds Land of the Free American Revolutions The Fate of the Gullahs4 Medicine Burke’s Prophecy The Juggernaut of War Médecins Sans Frontières The Skulls of Shark Island Black Shame5 Consumption
  • 8. The Birth of the Consumer Society Turning Western Ragtime to Riches The Jeans Genie Pyjamas and Scarves6 Work Work Ethic and Word Ethic Get your Kicks The Chinese Jerusalem Lands of Unbelief The End of Days? Illustrations Conclusion: The Rivals Notes Bibliography Index
  • 9. List of Illustrations1. Scene from the Hundred Years’ War (Corbis)2. The Four Conditions of Society: Poverty, Jean Bourdichon, c. 1500 (Bridgeman)3. The Triumph of Death, Peter Bruegel the Elder, c. 1562 (Getty)4. The Yongle Emperor (National Palace Museum, Taiwan)5. Su Song’s water clock (Adrian Pennink)6. A game of Chinese golf (Palace Museum, Forbidden City)7. The qilin (Jinghai Temple)8. The Chinese civil service examination, from a 17th-century history of Chinese emperors
  • 10. (Bridgeman) 9. Vasco da Gama’s tomb, monastery of St Jerome, Lisbon (Dewald Aukema)10. Earl Macartney’s embassy to the Xianlong Emperor, cartoon by James Gillray (Getty)11. Jan Sobieski’s men raise the siege of Vienna (Vienna Museum)12. Sultan Osman III (Bridgeman)13. Ahmed Resmî Effendi’s arrival in Berlin, 1763 (Dewald Aukema)14. Frederick the Great’s Anti-Machiavel, with annotations by Voltaire (Dewald Aukema)15. Pages from the German edition of Benjamin Robin’s New Principles of Gunnery (Dewald Aukema)16. Machu Picchu, Peru (Dewald Aukema)17. Boneyard Beach, South Carolina (Dewald Aukema)18. Millicent How’s indenture document
  • 11. (National Archives at Kew)19. Abraham Smith’s land grant (National Archives at Kew)20. Map of Charleston (The South Carolina Historical Society)21. Jerónimo de Aliaga (Dewald Aukema)22. Simón Bolívar mural in present-day Caracas (Dewald Aukema)23. Scarred slave (National Portrait Gallery, Washington, DC; copyright © Photo SCALA, Florence)24. Saint-Louis, Senegal (Dewald Aukema)25. Blaise Diagne (Getty)26. Louis Faidherbe (Corbis)27. Senegalese tirailleurs (Institut Pasteur)28. French doctors in the tropics (Institut Pasteur)29. Three photographs of ‘Bastard’ women (Adrian Pennink)
  • 12. 30. A Senegalese tirailleur on the Western Front (French MoD; copyright © ECPAD)31. Lüderitz, Namibia (Magic Touch Films; © Manfred Anderson)32. Young woman on horseback, Urga [Ulan Bator], Mongolia, 1913 (Musée Kahn)33. Hirohito and Edward (Getty)34. Observance of His Imperial Majesty of the Military Manoeuvres of Combined Army and Navy Forces, Yōshū Chikanobu, 1890 (Museum of Fine Arts, Boston)35. Ladies Sewing, Adachi Ginkō, 1887 (Museum of Fine Arts, Boston)36. Poster for Giant (Alamy) ®37. Levi’s London flagship store, 174–176 Regent Street (Levi Strauss & Co)38. Egon Bondy’s Happy Hearts Club Banned, The Plastic People of the Universe (Jaroslav Riedel)
  • 13. 39. Headscarves on dummies in Istanbul (Dewald Aukema)40. Max Weber in America (Getty)41. The St Louis World’s Fair, 1904 (Missouri History Museum, St Louis)42. China Inland Mission Students, c. 1900 (Special Collections, Yale Divinity School Library)43. An American missionary’s map of South- east China (British Library)44. A scene of death and destruction from the Taiping Rebellion (Getty)45. The Nanjing Amity Bible Printing Company (Reuters/Sean Yong)46. Industrial China (Dewald Aukema)47. Barack Obama and Wen Jiabao, November 2009 (Corbis)
  • 14. List of Maps1. Zheng He’s Seventh Voyage and da Gama’s First Voyage2. Ottoman Empire Disintegration from 16833. Prussian Expansion from 16684. United States Expansion from 17835. Gran Colombia’s Disintegration6. The French and German Empires in Africa, 19147. Protestant Missionaries in China, 1902
  • 15. List of Figures1. Western Future Empires, 1500, and Western Empires, 19132. UK/China per capita GDP Ratio, 1000– 20083. Military Labour Productivity in the French Army4. The Racial Structure of the New World, 1570–19355. Life Expectancy at Birth: England, the United States, India and China, 1725–19906. The Timing and Pace of Health Transitions in the French Empire7. Work Ethics: Hours Worked per Year in the West and the East, 1950–2009
  • 16. 8. Religious Belief and Observance, Early 1980s and Mid-2000s 9. Patents Granted by Country of Origin of Applicant, 1995–200810. GDP of Greater China as a Percentage of US GDP, 1950–200911. Average Mathematics Score of 8th Grade (~ 14-year-old) Students, 200712. Europe, America, China and India, Estimated Shares of Global GDP, Selected Years, 1500–2008
  • 17. Preface to the UK EditionI am trying to remember now where it was, and whenit was, that it hit me. Was it during my first walk alongthe Bund in Shanghai in 2005? Was it amid thesmog and dust of Chongqing, listening to a localCommunist Party official describe a vast mound ofrubble as the future financial centre of South-westChina? That was in 2008, and somehow itimpressed me more than all the synchronizedrazzamatazz of the Olympic opening ceremony inBeijing. Or was it at Carnegie Hall in 2009, as I satmesmerized by the music of Angel Lam, thedazzlingly gifted young Chinese composer whopersonifies the Orientalization of classical music? Ithink maybe it was only then that I really got the pointabout the first decade of the twenty-first century, just
  • 18. as it was drawing to a close: that we are livingthrough the end of 500 years of Westernascendancy. The principal question addressed by this bookincreasingly seems to me the most interestingquestion a historian of the modern era can ask. Justwhy, beginning around 1500, did a few small politieson the western end of the Eurasian landmass cometo dominate the rest of the world, including the morepopulous and in many ways more sophisticatedsocieties of Eastern Eurasia? My subsidiaryquestion is this: if we can come up with a goodexplanation for the West’s past ascendancy, can wethen offer a prognosis for its future? Is this really theend of the West’s world and the advent of a newEastern epoch? Put differently, are we witnessingthe waning of an age when the greater part ofhumanity was more or less subordinated to thecivilization that arose in Western Europe in the wakeof the Renaissance and Reformation – thecivilization that, propelled by the ScientificRevolution and the Enlightenment, spread across
  • 19. the Atlantic and as far as the Antipodes, finallyreaching its apogee during the Ages of Revolution,Industry and Empire? The very fact that I want to pose such questionssays something about the first decade of the twenty-first century. Born and raised in Scotland, educatedat Glasgow Academy and Oxford University, Iassumed throughout my twenties and thirties that Iwould spend my academic career at either Oxford orCambridge. I first began to think of moving to theUnited States because an eminent benefactor ofNew York University’s Stern School of Business, theWall Street veteran Henry Kaufman, had asked mewhy someone interested in the history of money andpower did not come to where the money and poweractually were. And where else could that be butdowntown Manhattan? As the new millenniumdawned, the New York Stock Exchange was self-evidently the hub of an immense global economicnetwork that was American in design and largelyAmerican in ownership. The dotcom bubble wasdeflating, admittedly, and a nasty little recession
  • 20. ensured that the Democrats lost the White Housejust as their pledge to pay off the national debtbegan to sound almost plausible. But within justeight months of becoming president, George W.Bush was confronted by an event that emphaticallyunderlined the centrality of Manhattan to theWestern-dominated world. The destruction of theWorld Trade Center by al-Qaeda terrorists paid NewYork a hideous compliment. This was target numberone for anyone serious about challenging Westernpredominance. The subsequent events were heady with hubris.The Taliban overthrown in Afghanistan. An ‘axis ofevil’ branded ripe for ‘regime change’. SaddamHussein ousted in Iraq. The Toxic Texan riding highin the polls, on track for re-election. The USeconomy bouncing back thanks to tax cuts. ‘OldEurope’ – not to mention liberal America – fumingimpotently. Fascinated, I found myself reading andwriting more and more about empires, in particularthe lessons of Britain’s for America’s; the result wasEmpire: How Britain Made the Modern World
  • 21. (2003). As I reflected on the rise, reign and probablefall of America’s empire, it became clear to me thatthere were three fatal deficits at the heart ofAmerican power: a manpower deficit (not enoughboots on the ground in Afghanistan and Iraq), anattention deficit (not enough public enthusiasm forlong-term occupation of conquered countries) andabove all a financial deficit (not enough savingsrelative to investment and not enough taxationrelative to public expenditure). In Colossus: The Rise and Fall of America’sEmpire (2004), I warned that the United States hadimperceptibly come to rely on East Asian capital tofund its unbalanced current and fiscal accounts. Thedecline and fall of America’s undeclared empiremight therefore be due not to terrorists at the gates,nor to the rogue regimes that sponsored them, but toa financial crisis at the very heart of the empire itself.When, in late 2006, Moritz Schularick and I coinedthe word ‘Chimerica’ to describe what we saw asthe dangerously unsustainable relationship – theword was a pun on ‘chimera’ – between
  • 22. parsimonious China and profligate America, we hadidentified one of the keys to the coming globalfinancial crisis. For without the availability to theAmerican consumer of both cheap Chinese labourand cheap Chinese capital, the bubble of the years2002–7 would not have been so egregious. The illusion of American ‘hyper-power’ wasshattered not once but twice during the presidencyof George W. Bush. Nemesis came first in thebackstreets of Sadr City and the fields of Helmand,which exposed not only the limits of Americanmilitary might but also, more importantly, the naivetyof neo-conservative visions of a democratic wave inthe Greater Middle East. It struck a second time withthe escalation of the subprime mortgage crisis of2007 into the credit crunch of 2008 and finally the‘great recession’ of 2009. After the bankruptcy ofLehman Brothers, the sham verities of the‘Washington Consensus’ and the ‘Great Moderation’– the central bankers’ equivalent of the ‘End ofHistory’ – were consigned to oblivion. A secondGreat Depression for a time seemed terrifyingly
  • 23. possible. What had gone wrong? In a series ofarticles and lectures beginning in mid-2006 andculminating in the publication of The Ascent ofMoney in November 2008 – when the financial crisiswas at its worst – I argued that all the majorcomponents of the international financial system hadbeen disastrously weakened by excessive short-term indebtedness on the balance sheets of banks,grossly mispriced and literally overrated mortgage-backed securities and other structured financialproducts, excessively lax monetary policy on the partof the Federal Reserve, a politically engineeredhousing bubble and, finally, the unrestrained sellingof bogus insurance policies (known as derivatives),offering fake protection against unknowableuncertainties, as opposed to quantifiable risks. Theglobalization of financial institutions that were ofWestern origin had been supposed to usher in anew era of reduced economic volatility. It tookhistorical knowledge to foresee how an old-fashioned liquidity crisis might bring the whole shakyedifice of leveraged financial engineering crashingto the ground.
  • 24. The danger of a second Depression recededafter the summer of 2009, though it did notaltogether disappear. But the world hadnevertheless changed. The breathtaking collapse inglobal trade caused by the financial crisis, as creditto finance imports and exports suddenly dried up,might have been expected to devastate the bigAsian economies, reliant as they were said to be onexports to the West. Thanks to a highly effectivegovernment stimulus programme based on massivecredit expansion, however, China suffered only aslow-down in growth. This was a remarkable featthat few experts had anticipated. Despite themanifest difficulties of running a continental economyof 1.3 billion people as if it were a giant Singapore,the probability remains better than even at the timeof writing (December 2010) that China will continueto forge ahead with its industrial revolution and that,within the decade, it will overtake the United Statesin terms of gross domestic product, just as (in 1963)Japan overtook the United Kingdom. The West had patently enjoyed a real and
  • 25. sustained edge over the Rest for most of theprevious 500 years. The gap between Western andChinese incomes had begun to open up as long agoas the 1600s and had continued to widen until asrecently as the late 1970s, if not later. But since thenit had narrowed with astonishing speed. Thefinancial crisis crystallized the next historicalquestion I wanted to ask. Had that Western edgenow gone? Only by working out what exactly it hadconsisted of could I hope to come up with ananswer.What follows is concerned with historicalmethodology; impatient readers can skip it and gostraight to the introduction. I wrote this book becauseI had formed the strong impression that the peoplecurrently living were paying insufficient attention tothe dead. Watching my three children grow up, I hadthe uneasy feeling that they were learning lesshistory than I had learned at their age, not becausethey had bad teachers but because they had badhistory books and even worse examinations.Watching the financial crisis unfold, I realized that
  • 26. they were far from alone, for it seemed as if only ahandful of people in the banks and treasuries of theWestern world had more than the sketchiestinformation about the last Depression. For roughlythirty years, young people at Western schools anduniversities have been given the idea of a liberaleducation, without the substance of historicalknowledge. They have been taught isolated‘modules’, not narratives, much less chronologies.They have been trained in the formulaic analysis ofdocument excerpts, not in the key skill of readingwidely and fast. They have been encouraged to feelempathy with imagined Roman centurions orHolocaust victims, not to write essays about why andhow their predicaments arose. In The History Boys,the playwright Alan Bennett posed a ‘trilemma’:should history be taught as a mode of contrarianargumentation, a communion with past Truth andBeauty, or just ‘one fucking thing after another’? Hewas evidently unaware that today’s sixth-formers areoffered none of the above – at best, they get ahandful of ‘fucking things’ in no particular order.
  • 27. The former president of the university where Iteach once confessed that, when he had been anundergraduate at the Massachusetts Institute ofTechnology, his mother had implored him to take atleast one history course. The brilliant youngeconomist replied cockily that he was moreinterested in the future than in the past. It is apreference he now knows to be illusory. There is infact no such thing as the future, singular; only futures,plural. There are multiple interpretations of history, tobe sure, none definitive – but there is only one past.And although the past is over, for two reasons it isindispensable to our understanding of what weexperience today and what lies ahead of ustomorrow and thereafter. First, the current worldpopulation makes up approximately 7 per cent of allthe human beings who have ever lived. The deadoutnumber the living, in other words, fourteen to one,and we ignore the accumulated experience of sucha huge majority of mankind at our peril. Second, thepast is really our only reliable source of knowledgeabout the fleeting present and to the multiple futuresthat lie before us, only one of which will actually
  • 28. happen. History is not just how we study the past; itis how we study time itself. Let us first acknowledge the subject’slimitations. Historians are not scientists. They cannot(and should not even try to) establish universal lawsof social or political ‘physics’ with reliable predictivepowers. Why? Because there is no possibility ofrepeating the single, multi-millennium experimentthat constitutes the past. The sample size of humanhistory is one. Moreover, the ‘particles’ in this onevast experiment have consciousness, which isskewed by all kinds of cognitive biases. This meansthat their behaviour is even harder to predict than ifthey were insensate, mindless, gyrating particles.Among the many quirks of the human condition isthat people have evolved to learn almost instinctivelyfrom their own past experience. So their behaviouris adaptive; it changes over time. We do not wanderrandomly but walk in paths, and what we haveencountered behind us determines the direction wechoose when the paths fork – as they constantly do. So what can historians do? First, by mimicking
  • 29. social scientists and relying on quantitative data,historians can devise ‘covering laws’, in CarlHempel’s sense of general statements about thepast that appear to cover most cases (for instance,when a dictator takes power instead of a democraticleader, the chance increases that the country inquestion will go to war). Or – though the twoapproaches are not mutually exclusive – thehistorian can commune with the dead byimaginatively reconstructing their experiences in theway described by the great Oxford philosopher R. G.Collingwood in his 1939 Autobiography. These twomodes of historical inquiry allow us to turn thesurviving relics of the past into history, a body ofknowledge and interpretation that retrospectivelyorders and illuminates the human predicament. Anyserious predictive statement about the possiblefutures we may experience is based, implicitly orexplicitly, on one or both of these historicalprocedures. If not, then it belongs in the samecategory as the horoscope in this morning’snewspaper.
  • 30. Collingwood’s ambition, forged in thedisillusionment with natural science and psychologythat followed the carnage of the First World War,was to take history into the modern age, leavingbehind what he dismissed as ‘scissors-and-pastehistory’, in which writers ‘only repeat, with differentarrangements and different styles of decoration,what others [have] said before them’. His thoughtprocess is itself worth reconstructing: a) ‘The past which an historian studies is not a dead past, but a past which in some sense is still living in the present’ in the form of traces (documents and artefacts) that have survived. b) ‘All history is the history of thought’, in the sense that a piece of historical evidence is meaningless if its intended purpose cannot be inferred. c) That process of inference requires an imaginative leap through time: ‘Historical knowledge is the re-enactment in the historian’s mind of the thought whose history
  • 31. he is studying.’d) But the real meaning of history comes from the juxtaposition of past and present: ‘Historical knowledge is the re-enactment of a past thought incapsulated in a context of present thoughts which, by contradicting it, confine it to a plane different from theirs.’e) The historian thus ‘may very well be related to the nonhistorian as the trained woodsman is to the ignorant traveller. “Nothing here but trees and grass,” thinks the traveller, and marches on. “Look,” says the woodsman, “there is a tiger in that grass.” ’ In other words, Collingwood argues, history offers something ‘altogether different from [scientific] rules, namely insight’.f) The true function of historical insight is ‘to inform [people] about the present, in so far as the past, its ostensible subject matter, [is] incapsulated in the present and [constitutes] a part of it not at once obvious to the untrained eye’.
  • 32. g) As for our choice of subject matter for historical investigation, Collingwood makes it clear that there is nothing wrong with what his Cambridge contemporary Herbert Butterfield condemned as ‘present- mindedness’: ‘True historical problems arise out of practical problems. We study history in order to see more clearly into the situation in which we are called upon to act. Hence the plane on which, ultimately, all problems arise is the plane of “real” life: that to which they are referred for their solution is history.’A polymath as skilled in archaeology as he was inphilosophy, a staunch opponent of appeasement *and an early hater of the Daily Mail, Collingwoodhas been my guide for many years, but never has hebeen more indispensable than in the writing of thisbook. For the problem of why civilizations fall is tooimportant to be left to the purveyors of scissors-and-paste history. It is truly a practical problem of our
  • 33. time, and this book is intended to be a woodsman’sguide to it. For there is more than one tiger hidden inthis grass.In dutifully reconstructing past thought, I have triedalways to remember a simple truth about the pastthat the historically inexperienced are prone toforget. Most people in the past either died young orexpected to die young, and those who did not wererepeatedly bereft of those they loved, who did dieyoung. Consider the case of my favourite poet, theJacobean master John Donne, who lived to the ageof fifty-nine, thirteen years older than I am as I write.A lawyer, a Member of Parliament and, afterrenouncing the Roman Catholic faith, an Anglicanpriest, Donne married for love, as a result losing hisjob as secretary to his bride’s uncle, Sir Thomas †Egerton, the Lord Keeper of the Privy Seal. In thespace of sixteen impecunious years, Anne Donnebore her husband twelve children. Three of them,Francis, Nicholas and Mary, died before they wereten. Anne herself died after giving birth to the twelfthchild, which was stillborn. After his favourite daughter
  • 34. Lucy had died and he himself had very nearlyfollowed her to the grave, Donne wrote hisDevotions upon Emergent Occasions (1624),which contains the greatest of all exhortations tocommiserate with the dead: ‘Any man’s deathdiminishes me, because I am involved in Mankinde;And therefore never send to know for whom the belltolls; It tolls for thee.’ Three years later, the death of aclose friend inspired him to write ‘A Nocturnal uponSt Lucy’s Day, Being the Shortest Day’: Study me then, you who shall lovers be At the next world, that is, at the next spring; For I am every dead thing, In whom Love wrought new alchemy. For his art did express A quintessence even from nothingness, From dull privations, and lean emptiness; He ruin’d me, and I am re-begot Of absence, darkness, death – things whichare not.
  • 35. Everyone should read these lines who wants tounderstand better the human condition in the dayswhen life expectancy was less than half what it istoday. The much greater power of death to cut peopleoff in their prime not only made life seem precariousand filled it with grief. It also meant that most of thepeople who built the civilizations of the past wereyoung when they made their contributions. The greatDutch-Jewish philosopher Baruch or BenedictSpinoza, who hypothesized that there is only amaterial universe of substance and deterministiccausation, and that ‘God’ is that universe’s naturalorder as we dimly apprehend it and nothing more,died in 1677 at the age of forty-four, probably fromthe particles of glass he had inhaled doing his day-job as a lens grinder. Blaise Pascal, the pioneer ofprobability theory and hydrodynamics and the authorof the Pensées, the greatest of all apologias for theChristian faith, lived to be just thirty-nine; he wouldhave died even younger had the road accident thatreawakened his spiritual side been fatal. Who
  • 36. knows what other great works these geniuses mighthave brought forth had they been granted thelifespans enjoyed by, for example, the greathumanists Erasmus (sixty-nine) and Montaigne (fifty-nine)? Mozart, composer of the most perfect of alloperas, Don Giovanni, died when he was just thirty-five. Franz Schubert, composer of the sublime StringQuintet in C (D956), succumbed, probably tosyphilis, at the age of just thirty-one. Prolific thoughthey were, what else might they have composed ifthey had been granted the sixty-three years enjoyedby the stolid Johannes Brahms or the even moreexceptional seventy-two years allowed theponderous Anton Bruckner? The Scots poet RobertBurns, who wrote the supreme expression ofegalitarianism, ‘A Man’s a Man for A’ That’, wasthirty-seven when he died in 1796. What injustice,that the poet who most despised inherited status(‘The rank is but the guinea’s stamp, / The Man’s thegowd [gold] for a’ that’) should have been so muchoutlived by the poet who most revered it: Alfred, LordTennyson, who died bedecked with honours at theage of eighty-three. Palgrave’s Golden Treasury
  • 37. would be the better for more Burns and lessTennyson. And how different would the art galleriesof the world be today if the painstaking Jan Vermeerhad lived to be ninety-one and the over-prolific PabloPicasso had died at thirty-nine, instead of the otherway round? Politics, too, is an art – as much a part of ourcivilization as philosophy, opera, poetry or painting.But the greatest political artist in American history,Abraham Lincoln, served only one full term in theWhite House, falling victim to an assassin with apetty grudge just six weeks after his secondinaugural address. He was fifty-six. How differentwould the era of Reconstruction have been had thisself-made titan, born in a log cabin, the author of themajestic Gettysburg Address – which redefined theUnited States as ‘a nation, conceived in liberty, anddedicated to the proposition that all men are createdequal’, with a ‘government of the people, by thepeople, for the people’ – lived as long as the polo-playing then polio-stricken grandee Franklin DelanoRoosevelt, whom medical science kept alive long
  • 38. enough to serve nearly four full terms as presidentbefore his death at sixty-three? Because our lives are so very different from thelives of most people in the past, not least in theirprobable duration, but also in our greater degree ofphysical comfort, we must exercise our imaginationsquite vigorously to understand the men and womenof the past. In his Theory of Moral Sentiments,written a century and half before Collingwood’smemoir, the great economist and social theoristAdam Smith defined why a civilized society is not awar of all against all – because it is based onsympathy: As we have no immediate experience of what other men feel, we can form no idea of the manner in which they are affected, but by conceiving what we ourselves should feel in the like situation. Though our brother is on the rack, as long as we ourselves are at our ease, our senses will never inform us of what he suffers. They never did, and never can, carry us beyond our own person, and it is by the imagination only that we can form any conception of what are his sensations. Neither can that faculty help us to this any other way, than by representing to us
  • 39. what would be our own, if we were in his case. It is the impressions of our own senses only, not those of his, which our imaginations copy. By the imagination, we place ourselves in his situation.This, of course, is precisely what Collingwood saysthe historian should do, and it is what I want thereader to do as she encounters in these pages theresurrected thoughts of the dead. The key point ofthe book is to understand what made theircivilization expand so spectacularly in its wealth,influence and power. But there can be nounderstanding without that sympathy which puts us,through an act of imagination, in their situation. Thatact will be all the more difficult when we come toresurrect the thoughts of the denizens of othercivilizations – the ones the West subjugated or, atleast, subordinated to itself. For they are equallyimportant members of the drama’s cast. This is nota history of the West but a history of the world, inwhich Western dominance is the phenomenon to beexplained.In an encyclopaedia entry he wrote in 1959, the
  • 40. French historian Fernand Braudel defined acivilization as: first of all a space, a ‘cultural area’ … a locus. With the locus … you must picture a great variety of ‘goods’, of cultural characteristics, ranging from the form of its houses, the material of which they are built, their roofing, to skills like feathering arrows, to a dialect or group of dialects, to tastes in cooking, to a particular technology, a structure of beliefs, a way of making love, and even to the compass, paper, the printing press. It is the regular grouping, the frequency with which particular characteristics recur, their ubiquity within a precise area [combined with] … some sort of temporal permanence …Braudel was better at delineating structures thanexplaining change, however. These days, it is oftensaid that historians should tell stories; accordingly,this book offers a big story – a meta-narrative of whyone civilization transcended the constraints that hadbound all previous ones – and a great many smallertales or micro-histories within it. Nevertheless therevival of the art of narrative is only part of what isneeded. In addition to stories, it is also important
  • 41. that there be questions. ‘Why did the West come todominate the Rest?’ is a question that demandssomething more than a just-so story in response.The answer needs to be analytical, it needs to besupported by evidence and it needs to be testableby means of the counterfactual question: if thecrucial innovations I identify here had not existed,would the West have ruled the Rest anyway for someother reason that I have missed or under-emphasized? Or would the world have turned outquite differently, with China on top, or some othercivilization? We should not delude ourselves intothinking that our historical narratives, as commonlyconstructed, are anything more than retro-fits. Tocontemporaries, as we shall see, the outcome ofWestern dominance did not seem the mostprobable of the futures they could imagine; thescenario of disastrous defeat often loomed larger inthe mind of the historical actor than the happy endingvouchsafed to the modern reader. The reality ofhistory as a lived experience is that it is much morelike a chess match than a novel, much more likefootball game than a play.
  • 42. It wasn’t all good. No serious writer would claimthat the reign of Western civilization wasunblemished. Yet there are those who would insistthat there was nothing whatever good about it. Thisposition is absurd. As is true of all great civilizations,that of the West was Janus-faced: capable of nobilityyet also capable of turpitude. Perhaps a betteranalogy is that the West resembled the two feudingbrothers in James Hogg’s Private Memoirs andConfessions of a Justified Sinner (1824) or inRobert Louis Stevenson’s Master of Ballantrae(1889). Competition and monopoly; science andsuperstition; freedom and slavery; curing and killing;hard work and laziness – in each case, the Westwas father to both the good and the bad. It was justthat, as in Hogg’s or Stevenson’s novel, the better ofthe two brothers ultimately came out on top. Wemust also resist the temptation to romanticizehistory’s losers. The other civilizations overrun by theWest’s, or more peacefully transformed by it throughborrowings as much as through impositions, werenot without their defects either, of which the mostobvious is that they were incapable of providing their
  • 43. inhabitants with any sustained improvement in thematerial quality of their lives. One difficulty is that wecannot always reconstruct the past thoughts of thesenon-Western peoples, for not all of them existed incivilizations with the means of recording andpreserving thought. In the end, history is primarily thestudy of civilizations, because without writtenrecords the historian is thrown back on spearheadsand pot fragments, from which much less can beinferred. The French historian and statesmanFrançois Guizot said that the history of civilization is‘the biggest of all … it comprises all the others’. Itmust transcend the multiple disciplinary boundarieserected by academics, with their compulsion tospecialize, between economic, social, cultural,intellectual, political, military and international history.It must cover a great deal of time and space,because civilizations are not small or ephemeral.But a book like this cannot be an encyclopaedia. Tothose who will complain about what has beenomitted, I can do no more than quote theidiosyncratic jazz pianist Thelonious Monk: ‘Don’tplay everything (or every time); let some things go by
  • 44. … What you don’t play can be more important thanwhat you do.’ I agree. Many notes and chords havebeen omitted below. But they have been left out for areason. Does the selection reflect the biases of amiddle-aged Scotsman, the archetypal beneficiaryof Western predominance? Very likely. But I cherishthe hope that the selection will not be disapproved ofby the most ardent and eloquent defenders ofWestern values today, whose ethnic origins are verydifferent from mine – from Amartya Sen to LiuXiaobo, from Hernando de Soto to the dedicatee ofthis book.A book that aims to cover 600 years of world historyis necessarily a collaborative venture and I owethanks to many people. I am grateful to the staff atthe following archives, libraries and institutions: theAGI Archive, the musée départemental Albert Kahn,the Bridgeman Art Library, the British Library, theCharleston Library Society, the Zhongguo guojiatushuguan (National Library of China) in Beijing,Corbis, the Institut Pasteur in Dakar, the DeutschesHistorisches Museum in Berlin, the Geheimes
  • 45. Staatsarchiv Preussischer Kulturbesitz at Berlin-Dahlem, Getty Images, the Greenwich Observatory,the Heeresgeschichtliches Museum in Vienna, theIrish National Library, the Library of Congress, theMissouri History Museum, the musée du Chemindes Dames, the Museo de Oro in Lima, the NationalArchives in London, the National Maritime Museum,the Başbakanlık Osmanlı Arşivleri (OttomanArchives) in Istanbul, PA Photos, the PeabodyMuseum of Archaeology and Ethnology at Harvard,the Archives Nationales du Sénégal in Dakar, theSouth Carolina Historical Society, the School ofOriental and African Studies, the SülemaniyeManuscript Library and of course Harvard’sincomparable Widener Library. It would be wrongnot to add an additional line of thanks to Google,now an incomparable resource for speeding uphistorical research, as well as Questia andWikipedia, which also make the historian’s workeasier. I have had invaluable research assistance fromSarah Wallington, as well as from Daniel Lansberg-
  • 46. Rodriguez, Manny Rincon-Cruz, Jason Rockett andJack Sun. As usual, this is a Penguin book on both sides ofthe Atlantic, edited with customary skill and verve bySimon Winder in London and Ann Godoff in NewYork. The peerless Peter James did more thancopy-edit the text. Thanks are also due to RichardDuguid, Rosie Glaisher, Stefan McGrath, JohnMakinson and Pen Vogler, and many others toonumerous to mention. Like four of my last five books, Civilization wasfrom its earliest inception a television series as wellas a book. At Channel 4 Ralph Lee has kept mefrom being abstruse or plain incomprehensible, withassistance from Simon Berthon. Neither series norbook could have been made without theextraordinary team of people assembled byChimerica Media: Dewald Aukema, a prince amongcinematographers, James Evans, our assistantproducer for films 2 and 5, Alison McAllan, ourarchive researcher, Susannah Price, who producedfilm 4, James Runcie, who directed films 2 and 5,
  • 47. Vivienne Steel, our production manager, andCharlotte Wilkins, our assistant producer for films 3and 4. A key role was also played in the early phaseof the project by Joanna Potts. Chris Openshaw,Max Hug Williams, Grant Lawson and Harrik Maurydeftly handled the filming in England and France.With their patience and generosity towards theauthor, my fellow Chimericans Melanie Fall andAdrian Pennink have ensured that we remain apretty good advertisement for the triumvirate as aform of government. My friend Chris Wilson onceagain ensured that I missed no planes. Among the many people who helped us film theseries, a number of fixers also helped with theresearch that went into the book. My thanks go toManfred Anderson, Khadidiatou Ba, Lillian Chen,Tereza Horska, Petr Janda, Wolfgang Knoepfler,Deborah McLauchlan, Matias de Sa Moreira, DaisyNewton-Dunn, José Couto Nogueira, Levent Öztekinand Ernst Vogl. I would also like to thank the many people Iinterviewed as we roamed the world, in particular
  • 48. Gonzalo de Aliaga, Nihal Bengisu Karaca, PastorJohn Lindell, Mick Rawson, Ryan Squibb, IvanTouška, Stefan Wolle, Hanping Zhang and – last butby no means least – the pupils at Robert ClackSchool, Dagenham. I am extremely fortunate to have in Andrew Wyliethe best literary agent in the world and in Sue Aytonhis counterpart in the realm of British television. Mythanks also go to Scott Moyers, James Pullen andall the other staff in the London and New York officesof the Wylie Agency. A number of eminent historians generously readall or part of the manuscript in draft, as did a numberof friends as well as former and current students:Rawi Abdelal, Ayaan Hirsi Ali, Bryan Averbuch,Pierpaolo Barbieri, Jeremy Catto, J. C. D. Clark,James Esdaile, Campbell Ferguson, MartinJacques, Harold James, Maya Jasanoff, JoannaLewis, Charles Maier, Hassan Malik, Noel Maurer,Ian Morris, Charles Murray, Aldo Musacchio, GlenO’Hara, Steven Pinker, Ken Rogoff, EmmaRothschild, Alex Watson, Arne Westad, John Wong
  • 49. and Jeremy Yellen. Thanks are also due to PhilipHoffman, Andrew Roberts and Robert Wilkinson. Allsurviving errors are my fault alone. At Oxford University I would like to thank thePrincipal and Fellows of Jesus College, theircounterparts at Oriel College and the librarians ofthe Bodleian. At the Hoover Institution, Stanford, Iowe debts to John Raisian, the Director, and hisexcellent staff. This book has been finished at theLondon School of Economics IDEAS centre, where Ihave been very well looked after as the PhilippeRoman Professor for the academic year 2010–11.My biggest debts, however, are to my colleagues atHarvard. It would take too long to thank everymember of the Harvard History Departmentindividually, so let me confine myself to a collectivethank-you: this is not a book I could have writtenwithout your collegial support, encouragement andintellectual inspiration. The same goes for mycolleagues at Harvard Business School, particularlythe members of the Business and Government in theInternational Economy Unit, as well as for the faculty
  • 50. and staff at the Centre of European Studies. Thanksare also due to my friends at the WeatherheadCentre for International Affairs, the Belfer Centre forScience and International Affairs, the Workshop inEconomic History and Lowell House. But most of all Ithank all my students on both sides of the CharlesRiver, particularly those in my General Educationclass, Societies of the World 19. This book startedlife in your presence, and greatly benefited from yourpapers and feedback. Finally, I offer my deepest thanks to my family,particularly my parents and my oft-neglectedchildren, Felix, Freya and Lachlan, not forgettingtheir mother Susan and our extended kinship group.In many ways, I have written this book for you,children. It is dedicated, however, to someone whounderstands better than anyone I know what Westerncivilization really means – and what it still has to offerthe world.London December 2010
  • 51. Introduction: Rasselas’s Question He would not admit civilization [to the fourth edition of his dictionary], but only civility. With great deference to him, I thought civilization, from to civilize, better in the sense opposed to barbarity, than civility. James Boswell All definitions of civilization … belong to a conjugation which goes: ‘I am civilized, you belong to a culture, he is a barbarian.’ Felipe Fernández-ArmestoWhen Kenneth Clark defined civilization in histelevision series of that name, he left viewers in nodoubt that he meant the civilization of the West – andprimarily the art and architecture of Western Europefrom the Middle Ages until the nineteenth century.The first of the thirteen films he made for the BBCwas politely but firmly dismissive of ByzantineRavenna, the Celtic Hebrides, Viking Norway andeven Charlemagne’s Aachen. The Dark Ages
  • 52. even Charlemagne’s Aachen. The Dark Agesbetween the fall of Rome and the twelfth-centuryRenaissance simply did not qualify as civilization inClark’s sense of the word. That only revived with thebuilding of Chartres cathedral, dedicated though notcompleted in 1260, and was showing signs offatigue with the Manhattan skyscrapers of his owntime. Clark’s hugely successful series, which was firstbroadcast in Britain when I was five years old,defined civilization for a generation in the English-speaking world. Civilization was the chateaux of theLoire. It was the palazzi of Florence. It was theSistine Chapel. It was Versailles. From the soberinteriors of the Dutch Republic to the ebullientfaçades of the baroque, Clark played to his strengthas an historian of art. Music and literature made theirappearances; politics and even economicsoccasionally peeked in. But the essence of Clark’scivilization was clearly High Visual Culture. Hisheroes were Michelangelo, da Vinci, Dürer, 1Constable, Turner, Delacroix. In fairness to Clark, his series was subtitled APersonal View. And he was not unaware of theimplication – problematic already in 1969 – that ‘thepre-Christian era and the East’ were in some sense
  • 53. uncivilized. Nevertheless, with the passage of fourdecades, it has become steadily harder to live withClark’s view, personal or otherwise (to say nothingof his now slightly grating de haut en bas manner). Inthis book I take a broader, more comparative view,and I aim to be more down and dirty than high andmighty. My idea of civilization is as much aboutsewage pipes as flying buttresses, if not more so,because without efficient public plumbing cities aredeath-traps, turning rivers and wells into havens forthe bacterium Vibrio cholerae. I am,unapologetically, as interested in the price of a workof art as in its cultural value. To my mind, acivilization is much more than just the contents of afew first-rate art galleries. It is a highly complexhuman organization. Its paintings, statues andbuildings may well be its most eye-catchingachievements, but they are unintelligible withoutsome understanding of the economic, social andpolitical institutions which devised them, paid forthem, executed them – and preserved them for ourgaze. ‘Civilisation’ is a French word, first used by theFrench economist Anne-Robert-Jacques Turgot in1752, and first published by Victor Riqueti, marquisde Mirabeau, father of the great revolutionary, four
  • 54. 2years later. Samuel Johnson, as the first epigraphto this Introduction makes clear, would not acceptthe neologism, preferring ‘civility’. If barbarism hadan antonym for Johnson, it was the polite (thoughsometimes also downright rude) urban life heenjoyed so much in London. A civilization, as theetymology of the word suggests, revolves around itscities, and in many ways it is cities that are the 3heroes of this book. But a city’s laws (civil orotherwise) are as important as its walls; itsconstitution and customs – its inhabitants’ manners 4(civil or otherwise) – as important as its palaces.Civilization is as much about scientists’ laboratoriesas it is about artists’ garrets. It is as much aboutforms of land tenure as it is about landscapes. Thesuccess of a civilization is measured not just in itsaesthetic achievements but also, and surely moreimportantly, in the duration and quality of life of itscitizens. And that quality of life has manydimensions, not all easily quantified. We may beable to estimate the per-capita income of peoplearound the world in the fifteenth century, or theiraverage life expectancy at birth. But what about theircomfort? Cleanliness? Happiness? How manygarments did they own? How many hours did they
  • 55. have to work? What food could they buy with theirwages? Artworks by themselves can offer hints, butthey cannot answer such questions. Clearly, however, one city does not make acivilization. A civilization is the single largest unit ofhuman organization, higher though more amorphousthan even an empire. Civilizations are partly apractical response by human populations to theirenvironments – the challenges of feeding, watering,sheltering and defending themselves – but they arealso cultural in character; often, though not always,religious; often, though not always, communities of 5language. They are few, but not far between. Carroll 6Quigley counted two dozen in the last ten millennia.In the pre-modern world, Adda Bozeman saw just 7five: the West, India, China, Byzantium and Islam.Matthew Melko made the total twelve, seven ofwhich have vanished (Mesopotamian, Egyptian,Cretan, Classical, Byzantine, Middle American,Andean) and five of which still remain (Chinese, 8Japanese, Indian, Islamic, Western). ShmuelEisenstadt counted six by adding Jewish civilization 9to the club. The interaction of these few civilizationswith one another, as much as with their own
  • 56. environments, has been among the most important 10drivers of historical change. The striking thingabout these interactions is that authentic civilizationsseem to remain true unto themselves for very longperiods, despite outside influences. As FernandBraudel put it: ‘Civilization is in fact the longest storyof all … A civilization … can persist through a series 11of economies or societies.’If, in the year 1411, you had been able tocircumnavigate the globe, you would probably havebeen most impressed by the quality of life in Orientalcivilizations. The Forbidden City was underconstruction in Ming Beijing, while work had begunon reopening and improving the Grand Canal; in theNear East, the Ottomans were closing in onConstantinople, which they would finally capture in1453. The Byzantine Empire was breathing its last.The death of the warlord Timur (Tamerlane) in 1405had removed the recurrent threat of murderousinvading hordes from Central Asia – the antithesis ofcivilization. For the Yongle Emperor in China and theOttoman Sultan Murad II, the future was bright. By contrast, Western Europe in 1411 wouldhave struck you as a miserable backwater,recuperating from the ravages of the Black Death –
  • 57. which had reduced population by as much as half asit swept eastwards between 1347 and 1351 – andstill plagued by bad sanitation and seeminglyincessant war. In England the leper king Henry IVwas on the throne, having successfully overthrownand murdered the ill-starred Richard II. France wasin the grip of internecine warfare between thefollowers of the Duke of Burgundy and those of theassassinated Duke of Orléans. The Anglo-FrenchHundred Years’ War was just about to resume. Theother quarrelsome kingdoms of Western Europe –Aragon, Castile, Navarre, Portugal and Scotland –would have seemed little better. A Muslim still ruledin Granada. The Scottish King, James I, was aprisoner in England, having been captured byEnglish pirates. The most prosperous parts ofEurope were in fact the North Italian city-states:Florence, Genoa, Pisa, Siena and Venice. As forfifteenth-century North America, it was an anarchicwilderness compared with the realms of the Aztecs,Mayas and Incas in Central and South America, withtheir towering temples and skyscraping roads. Bythe end of your world tour, the notion that the Westmight come to dominate the Rest for most of thenext half-millennium would have come to seem wildlyfanciful.
  • 58. And yet it happened. For some reason, beginning in the late fifteenthcentury, the little states of Western Europe, with theirbastardized linguistic borrowings from Latin (and alittle Greek), their religion derived from the teachingsof a Jew from Nazareth and their intellectual debts toOriental mathematics, astronomy and technology,produced a civilization capable not only ofconquering the great Oriental empires andsubjugating Africa, the Americas and Australasia,but also of converting peoples all over the world tothe Western way of life – a conversion achievedultimately more by the word than by the sword. There are those who dispute that, claiming thatall civilizations are in some sense equal, and that theWest cannot claim superiority over, say, the East of 12Eurasia. But such relativism is demonstrablyabsurd. No previous civilization had ever achievedsuch dominance as the West achieved over the 13Rest. In 1500 the future imperial powers of Europeaccounted for about 10 per cent of the world’s landsurface and at most 16 per cent of its population. By *1913, eleven Western empires controlled nearlythree-fifths of all territory and population and more
  • 59. than three-quarters (a staggering 79 per cent) of 14global economic output. Average life expectancyin England was nearly twice what it was in India.Higher living standards in the West were alsoreflected in a better diet, even for agriculturallabourers, and taller stature, even for ordinary 15soldiers and convicts. Civilization, as we haveseen, is about cities. By this measure, too, the Westhad come out on top. In 1500, as far as we can workout, the biggest city in the world was Beijing, with apopulation of between 600,000 and 700,000. Of theten largest cities in the world by that time only one –Paris – was European, and its population numberedfewer than 200,000. London had perhaps 50,000inhabitants. Urbanization rates were also higher inNorth Africa and South America than in Europe. Yetby 1900 there had been an astonishing reversal.Only one of the world’s ten largest cities at that timewas Asian and that was Tokyo. With a population ofaround 6.5 million, London was the global 16megalopolis. Nor did Western dominance endwith the decline and fall of the European empires.The rise of the United States saw the gap betweenWest and East widen still further. By 1990 theaverage American was seventy-three times richer
  • 60. 17than the average Chinese.
  • 61. Moreover, it became clear in the second half ofthe twentieth century that the only way to close thatyawning gap in income was for Eastern societies tofollow Japan’s example in adopting some (thoughnot all) of the West’s institutions and modes ofoperation. As a result, Western civilization becamea kind of template for the way the rest of the worldaspired to organize itself. Prior to 1945, of course,there was a variety of developmental models – oroperating systems, to draw a metaphor fromcomputing – that could be adopted by non-Westernsocieties. But the most attractive were all ofEuropean origin: liberal capitalism, nationalsocialism, Soviet communism. The Second WorldWar killed the second in Europe, though it lived onunder assumed names in many developingcountries. The collapse of the Soviet empire
  • 62. between 1989 and 1991 killed the third. To be sure, there has been much talk in thewake of the global financial crisis about alternativeAsian economic models. But not even the mostardent cultural relativist is recommending a return tothe institutions of the Ming dynasty or the Mughals.The current debate between the proponents of freemarkets and those of state intervention is, at root, adebate between identifiably Western schools ofthought: the followers of Adam Smith and those ofJohn Maynard Keynes, with a few die-hard devoteesof Karl Marx still plugging away. The birthplaces ofall three speak for themselves: Kirkcaldy,Cambridge, Trier. In practice, most of the world isnow integrated into a Western economic system inwhich, as Smith recommended, the market setsmost of the prices and determines the flow of tradeand division of labour, but government plays a rolecloser to the one envisaged by Keynes, interveningto try to smooth the business cycle and reduceincome inequality. As for non-economic institutions, there is nodebate worth having. All over the world, universitiesare converging on Western norms. The same is trueof the way medical science is organized, fromrarefied research all the way through to front-line
  • 63. rarefied research all the way through to front-linehealthcare. Most people now accept the greatscientific truths revealed by Newton, Darwin andEinstein and, even if they do not, they still reacheagerly for the products of Western pharmacology atthe first symptom of influenza or bronchitis. Only afew societies continue to resist the encroachment ofWestern patterns of marketing and consumption, aswell as the Western lifestyle itself. More and morehuman beings eat a Western diet, wear Westernclothes and live in Western housing. Even thepeculiarly Western way of work – five or six days aweek from 9 until 5, with two or three weeks ofholiday – is becoming a kind of universal standard.Meanwhile, the religion that Western missionariessought to export to the rest of the world is followedby a third of mankind – as well as makingremarkable gains in the world’s most populouscountry. Even the atheism pioneered in the West ismaking impressive headway. With every passing year, more and more humanbeings shop like us, study like us, stay healthy (orunhealthy) like us and pray (or don’t pray) like us.Burgers, Bunsen burners, Band-Aids, baseball capsand Bibles: you cannot easily get away from them,wherever you may go. Only in the realm of politicalinstitutions does there remain significant global
  • 64. diversity, with a wide range of governments aroundthe world resisting the idea of the rule of law, with itsprotection of individual rights, as the foundation formeaningful representative government. It is as muchas a political ideology as a religion that a militantIslam seeks to resist the advance of the latetwentieth-century Western norms of gender equality 18and sexual freedom. So it is not ‘Eurocentrism’ or (anti-)‘Orientalism’to say that the rise of Western civilization is thesingle most important historical phenomenon of thesecond half of the second millennium after Christ. Itis a statement of the obvious. The challenge is toexplain how it happened. What was it about thecivilization of Western Europe after the fifteenthcentury that allowed it to trump the outwardlysuperior empires of the Orient? Clearly, it wassomething more than the beauty of the SistineChapel.The facile, if not tautological, answer to the questionis that the West dominated the Rest because of 19imperialism. There are still many people todaywho can work themselves up into a state of highmoral indignation over the misdeeds of theEuropean empires. Misdeeds there certainly were,
  • 65. and they are not absent from these pages. It is alsoclear that different forms of colonization – settlementversus extraction – had very different long-term 20impacts. But empire is not a historically sufficientexplanation of Western predominance. There wereempires long before the imperialism denounced bythe Marxist-Leninists. Indeed, the sixteenth centurysaw a number of Asian empires increasesignificantly in their power and extent. Meanwhile,after the failure of Charles V’s project of a grandHabsburg empire stretching from Spain through theLow Countries to Germany, Europe grew morefragmented than ever. The Reformation unleashedmore than a century of European wars of religion. A sixteenth-century traveller could hardly havefailed to notice the contrast. In addition to coveringAnatolia, Egypt, Arabia, Mesopotamia and Yemen,the Ottoman Empire under Suleiman the Magnificent(1520–66) extended into the Balkans and Hungary,menacing the gates of Vienna in 1529. Further east,the Safavid Empire under Abbas I (1587–1629)stretched all the way from Isfahan and Tabriz toKandahar, while Northern India from Delhi to Bengalwas ruled by the mighty Mughal Emperor Akbar(1556–1605). Ming China, too, seemed serene andsecure behind the Great Wall. Few European
  • 66. secure behind the Great Wall. Few Europeanvisitors to the court of the Wanli Emperor (1572–1620) can have anticipated the fall of his dynastyless than three decades after his death. Writing fromIstanbul in the late 1550s, the Flemish diplomatOgier Ghiselin de Busbecq – the man whotransplanted tulips from Turkey to the Netherlands –nervously compared Europe’s fractured state withthe ‘vast wealth’ of the Ottoman Empire. True, the sixteenth century was a time of hecticEuropean activity overseas. But to the great Orientalempires the Portuguese and Dutch seafarersseemed the very opposite of bearers of civilization;they were merely the latest barbarians to menacethe Middle Kingdom, if anything more loathsome –and certainly more malodorous – than the pirates ofJapan. And what else attracted Europeans to Asiabut the superior quality of Indian textiles and Chineseporcelain? As late as 1683, an Ottoman army could marchto the gates of Vienna – the capital of the HabsburgEmpire – and demand that the city’s populationsurrender and convert to Islam. It was only after theraising of the siege that Christendom could beginslowly rolling back Ottoman power in Central andEastern Europe through the Balkans towards the
  • 67. Bosphorus, and it took many years before anyEuropean empire could match the achievements ofOriental imperialism. The ‘great divergence’between the West and the Rest was even slower tomaterialize elsewhere. The material gap betweenNorth and South America was not firmly establisheduntil well into the nineteenth century, and most ofAfrica was not subjugated by Europeans beyond afew coastal strips until the early twentieth. If Western ascendancy cannot therefore beexplained in the tired old terms of imperialism, was itsimply – as some scholars maintain – a matter ofgood luck? Was it the geography or the climate ofthe western end of Eurasia that made the greatdivergence happen? Were the Europeans justfortunate to stumble across the islands of theCaribbean, so ideally suited to the cultivation ofcalorie-rich sugar? Did the New World provideEurope with ‘ghost acres’ that China lacked? Andwas it just sod’s law that made China’s coaldeposits harder to mine and transport than 21Europe’s? Or was China in some sense a victimof its own success – stuck in a ‘high-level equilibriumtrap’ by the ability of its cultivators to provide a vast 22number of people with just enough calories to live?
  • 68. Can it really be that England became the firstindustrial nation mainly because bad sanitation anddisease kept life exceptionally short for the majorityof people, giving the rich and enterprising minority a 23better chance to pass on their genes? The immortal English lexicographer SamuelJohnson rejected all such contingent explanations forWestern ascendancy. In his History of Rasselas:Prince of Abissinia , published in 1759, he hasRasselas ask: By what means … are the Europeans thus powerful? or why, since they can so easily visit Asia and Africa for trade or conquest, cannot the Asiaticks and Africans invade their coasts, plant colonies in their ports, and give laws to their natural princes? The same wind that carries them back would bring us * thither.To which the philosopher Imlac replies: They are more powerful, Sir, than we, because they are wiser; knowledge will always predominate over ignorance, as man governs the other animals. But why their knowledge is more than ours, I know not what reason can be given, but the unsearchable will 24 of the Supreme Being.
  • 69. Knowledge is indeed power if it provides superiorways of sailing ships, digging up minerals, firingguns and curing sickness. But is it in fact the casethat Europeans were more knowledgeable thanother people? Perhaps by 1759 they were; scientificinnovation for around two and a half centuries after 251650 was almost exclusively Western in origin. Butin 1500? As we shall see, Chinese technology,Indian mathematics and Arab astronomy had beenfar ahead for centuries. Was it therefore a more nebulous culturaldifference that equipped Europeans to leap aheadof their Oriental counterparts? That was theargument made by the German sociologist MaxWeber. It comes in many variants – medievalEnglish individualism, humanism and the Protestantethic – and it has been sought everywhere from thewills of English farmers to the account books ofMediterranean merchants and the rules of etiquetteof royal courts. In The Wealth and Poverty ofNations, David Landes made the cultural case byarguing that Western Europe led the world indeveloping autonomous intellectual inquiry, thescientific method of verification and the
  • 70. rationalization of research and its diffusion. Yet evenhe allowed that something more was required forthat mode of operation to flourish: financial 26intermediaries and good government. The key, itbecomes ever more apparent, lies with institutions. Institutions are, of course, in some sense theproducts of culture. But, because they formalize aset of norms, institutions are often the things thatkeep a culture honest, determining how far it isconducive to good behaviour rather than bad. Toillustrate the point, the twentieth century ran a seriesof experiments, imposing quite different institutionson two sets of Germans (in West and East), two setsof Koreans (in North and South) and two sets ofChinese (inside and outside the People’s Republic).The results were very striking and the lesson crystalclear. If you take the same people, with more or lessthe same culture, and impose communist institutionson one group and capitalist institutions on another,almost immediately there will be a divergence in theway they behave. Many historians today would agree that therewere few really profound differences between theeastern and western ends of Eurasia in the 1500s.Both regions were early adopters of agriculture,
  • 71. market-based exchange and urban-centred state 27structures. But there was one crucial institutionaldifference. In China a monolithic empire had beenconsolidated, while Europe remained politicallyfragmented. In Guns, Germs and Steel, JaredDiamond explained why Eurasia had advanced 28ahead of the rest of the world. But not until hisessay ‘How to Get Rich’ (1999) did he offer ananswer to the question of why one end of Eurasiaforged so far ahead of the other. The answer wasthat, in the plains of Eastern Eurasia, monolithicOriental empires stifled innovation, while inmountainous, river-divided Western Eurasia,multiple monarchies and city-states engaged in 29creative competition and communication. It is an appealing answer. And yet it cannot be asufficient one. Look only at the two series ofengravings entitled Miseries of War, published bythe Lorraine artist Jacques Callot in the 1630s as ifto warn the rest of the world of the dangers ofreligious conflict. The competition between andwithin Europe’s petty states in the first half of theseventeenth century was disastrous, depopulatinglarge tracts of Central Europe as well as plungingthe British Isles into more than a century of recurrent,
  • 72. debilitating strife. Political fragmentation often hasthat effect. If you doubt it, ask the inhabitants of theformer Yugoslavia. Competition is certainly a part ofthe story of Western ascendancy, as we shall see inChapter 1 – but only a part.In this book I want to show that what distinguishedthe West from the Rest – the mainsprings of globalpower – were six identifiably novel complexes ofinstitutions and associated ideas and behaviours.For the sake of simplicity, I summarize them undersix headings:1. Competition2. Science3. Property rights4. Medicine5. The consumer society6. The work ethicTo use the language of today’s computerized,synchronized world, these were the six killerapplications – the killer apps – that allowed aminority of mankind originating on the western edgeof Eurasia to dominate the world for the better part
  • 73. of 500 years. Now, before you indignantly write to meobjecting that I have missed out some crucial aspectof Western ascendancy, such as capitalism orfreedom or democracy (or for that matter guns,germs and steel), please read the following briefdefinitions: 1. Competition – a decentralization of both political and economic life, which created the launch-pad for both nation-states and capitalism 2. Science – a way of studying, understanding and ultimately changing the natural world, which gave the West (among other things) a major military advantage over the Rest 3. Property rights – the rule of law as a means of protecting private owners and peacefully resolving disputes between them, which formed the basis for the most stable form of representative government 4. Medicine – a branch of science that allowed a major improvement in health and life expectancy, beginning in Western societies, but also in their colonies
  • 74. 5. The consumer society – a mode of material living in which the production and purchase of clothing and other consumer goods play a central economic role, and without which the Industrial Revolution would have been unsustainable 6. The work ethic – a moral framework and mode of activity derivable from (among other sources) Protestant Christianity, which provides the glue for the dynamic and potentially unstable society created by apps 1 to 5 Make no mistake: this is not another self- 30satisfied version of ‘The Triumph of the West’. Iwant to show that it was not just Western superioritythat led to the conquest and colonization of so muchof the rest of the world; it was also the fortuitousweakness of the West’s rivals. In the 1640s, forexample, a combination of fiscal and monetarycrisis, climate change and epidemic diseaseunleashed rebellion and the final crisis of the Mingdynasty. This had nothing to do with the West.Likewise, the political and military decline of theOttoman Empire was internally driven more than it
  • 75. was externally imposed. North American politicalinstitutions flourished as South America’s festered;but Simón Bolívar’s failure to create a United Statesof Latin America was not the gringo’s fault. The critical point is that the differential betweenthe West and the Rest was institutional. WesternEurope overtook China partly because in the Westthere was more competition in both the political andthe economic spheres. Austria, Prussia and latterlyeven Russia became more effective administrativelyand militarily because the network that produced theScientific Revolution arose in the Christian but not inthe Muslim world. The reason North America’s ex-colonies did so much better than South America’swas because British settlers established acompletely different system of property rights andpolitical representation in the North from those builtby Spaniards and Portuguese in the South. (TheNorth was an ‘open access order’, rather than aclosed one run in the interests of rent-seeking, 31exclusive elites.) European empires were able topenetrate Africa not just because they had theMaxim gun; they also devised vaccines againsttropical diseases to which Africans were just asvulnerable.
  • 76. In the same way, the earlier industrialization ofthe West reflected institutional advantages: thepossibility of a mass consumer society existed in theBritish Isles well before the advent and spread ofsteam power or the factory system. Even afterindustrial technology was almost universallyavailable, the differential between the West and theRest persisted; indeed, it grew wider. With whollystandardized cotton-spinning and weavingmachinery, the European or North American workerwas still able to work more productively, and hiscapitalist employer to accumulate wealth more 32rapidly, than their Oriental counterparts. Investmentin public health and public education paid bigdividends; where there was none, people stayed 33poor. This book is about all these differences –why they existed and why they mattered so much.Thus far I have used words like ‘West’ and ‘Western’more or less casually. But what exactly – or where –do I mean by ‘Western civilization’? Post-war WhiteAnglo-Saxon Protestant males used more or lessinstinctively to locate the West (also known as ‘thefree world’) in a relatively narrow corridor extending(certainly) from London to Lexington,Massachusetts, and (possibly) from Strasbourg to
  • 77. San Francisco. In 1945, fresh from the battlefields,the West’s first language was English, followed byhalting French. With the success of Europeanintegration in the 1950s and 1960s, the Westernclub grew larger. Few would now dispute that theLow Countries, France, Germany, Italy, Portugal,Scandinavia and Spain all belong to the West, whileGreece is an ex officio member, despite its laterallegiance to Orthodox Christianity, thanks to ourenduring debt to ancient Hellenic philosophy and theGreeks’ more recent debts to the European Union. But what about the rest of the Southern andEastern Mediterranean, encompassing not just theBalkans north of the Peloponnese, but also NorthAfrica and Anatolia? What about Egypt andMesopotamia, the seedbeds of the very firstcivilizations? Is South America – colonized byEuropeans as surely as was North America, andgeographically in the same hemisphere – part of theWest? And what of Russia? Is European Russia trulyOccidental, but Russia beyond the Urals in somesense part of the Orient? Throughout the Cold War,the Soviet Union and its satellites were referred toas ‘the Eastern bloc’. But there is surely a case forsaying that the Soviet Union was as much a productof Western civilization as the United States. Its core
  • 78. ideology had much the same Victorian provenanceas nationalism, anti-slavery and women’s suffrage –it was born and bred in the old circular ReadingRoom of the British Library. And its geographicalextent was no less the product of Europeanexpansion and colonization than the settlement ofthe Americas. In Central Asia, as in South America,Europeans ruled over non-Europeans. In that sense,what happened in 1991 was simply the death of thelast European empire. Yet the most influential recentdefinition of Western civilization, by SamuelHuntington, excludes not just Russia but all countrieswith a religious tradition of Orthodoxy. Huntington’sWest consists only of Western and Central Europe(excluding the Orthodox East), North America(excluding Mexico) and Australasia. Greece, Israel,Romania and Ukraine do not make the cut; nor dothe Caribbean islands, despite the fact that many 34are as Western as Florida. ‘The West’, then, is much more than just ageographical expression. It is a set of norms,behaviours and institutions with borders that areblurred in the extreme. The implications of that areworth pondering. Might it in fact be possible for anAsian society to become Western if it embracesWestern norms of dressing and doing business, as
  • 79. Western norms of dressing and doing business, asJapan did from the Meiji era, and as much of the restof Asia now seems to be doing? It was oncefashionable to insist that the capitalist ‘world-system’imposed a permanent division of labour between the 35Western core and the Rest’s periphery. But what ifthe whole world eventually ends up beingWesternized, in appearance and lifestyle at least?Or could it be that the other civilizations are, asHuntington famously argued, more resilient –particularly ‘Sinic’ civilization, meaning Greater *China, and Islam, with its ‘bloody borders and 36innards’? How far is their adoption of Westernmodes of operation merely a superficialmodernization without any cultural depth? These arequestions that will be addressed below. Another puzzle about Western civilization is thatdisunity appears to be one of its definingcharacteristics. In the early 2000s many Americancommentators complained about the ‘wideningAtlantic’ – the breakdown of those common valuesthat bound the United States together with its West 37European allies during the Cold War. If it hasbecome slightly clearer than it was when HenryKissinger was secretary of state whom an American
  • 80. statesman should call when he wants to speak toEurope, it has become harder to say who picks upthe phone on behalf of Western civilization. Yet thecurrent division between America and ‘Old Europe’is mild and amicable compared with the greatschisms of the past, over religion, over ideology –and even over the meaning of civilization itself.During the First World War, the Germans claimed tobe fighting the war for a higher Kultur and againsttawdry, materialistic Anglo-French civilisation (thedistinction was drawn by Thomas Mann andSigmund Freud, among others). But this distinctionwas hard to reconcile with the burning of the LeuvenUniversity and the summary executions of Belgiancivilians in the first phase of the war. Britishpropagandists retorted by defining the Germans as‘Huns’ – barbarians beyond the Pale of civilization –and named the war itself ‘The Great War for 38Civilization’ on their Victory medal. Is it any moremeaningful to talk today about ‘the West’ as a unitarycivilization than it was in 1918? Finally, it is worth remembering that Westerncivilization has declined and fallen once before. TheRoman ruins scattered all over Europe, North Africaand the Near East serve as potent reminders of that.The first version of the West – Western Civilization
  • 81. The first version of the West – Western Civilization1.0 – arose in the so-called Fertile Crescentstretching from the Nile Valley to the confluence ofthe Euphrates and the Tigris, and reached its twinpeaks with Athenian democracy and the Roman 39Empire. Key elements of our civilization today –not only democracy but also athletics, arithmetic,civil law, geometry, the classical style of architectureand a substantial proportion of the words in modernEnglish – had their origins in the ancient West. In itsheyday, the Roman Empire was a startlinglysophisticated system. Grain, manufactures andcoins circulated in an economy that stretched fromthe north of England to the upper reaches of the Nile,scholarship flourished, there was law, medicine andeven shopping malls like Trajan’s Forum in Rome.But that version of Western civilization declined andthen fell with dramatic speed in the fifth century AD,undone by barbarian invasions and internaldivisions. In the space of a generation, the vastimperial metropolis of Rome fell into disrepair, theaqueducts broken, the splendid market placesdeserted. The knowledge of the classical Westwould have been lost altogether, but for the librarians 40 41of Byzantium, the monks of Ireland and thepopes and priests of the Roman Catholic Church –
  • 82. 42not forgetting the Abbasid caliphs. Without theirstewardship, the civilization of the West could nothave been reborn as it was in the Italy of theRenaissance. Is decline and fall the looming fate of WesternCivilization 2.0? In demographic terms, thepopulation of Western societies has longrepresented a minority of the world’s inhabitants, buttoday it is clearly a dwindling one. Once sodominant, the economies of the United States andEurope are now facing the real prospect of beingovertaken by China within twenty or even ten years,with Brazil and India not so very far behind. Western‘hard power’ seems to be struggling in the GreaterMiddle East, from Iraq to Afghanistan, just as the‘Washington Consensus’ on free-market economicpolicy disintegrates. The financial crisis that beganin 2007 also seems to indicate a fundamental flaw atthe heart of the consumer society, with its emphasison debt-propelled retail therapy. The Protestant ethicof thrift that once seemed so central to the Westernproject has all but vanished. Meanwhile, Westernelites are beset by almost millenarian fears of acoming environmental apocalypse. What is more, Western civilization appears to
  • 83. have lost confidence in itself. Beginning withStanford in 1963, a succession of major universitieshave ceased to offer the classic ‘Western Civ.’history course to their undergraduates. In schools,too, the grand narrative of Western ascent has fallenout of fashion. Thanks to an educationalists’ fad thatelevated ‘historical skills’ above knowledge in thename of ‘New History’ – combined with theunintended consequences of the curriculum-reformprocess – too many British schoolchildren leavesecondary school knowing only unconnectedfragments of Western history: Henry VIII and Hitler,with a small dose of Martin Luther King, Jr. A surveyof first-year History undergraduates at one leadingBritish university revealed that only 34 per cent knewwho was the English monarch at the time of theArmada, 31 per cent knew the location of the BoerWar, 16 per cent knew who commanded the Britishforces at Waterloo (more than twice that proportionthought it was Nelson rather than Wellington) and 11per cent could name a single nineteenth-century 43British prime minister. In a similar poll of Englishchildren aged between eleven and eighteen, 17 percent thought Oliver Cromwell fought at the Battle ofHastings and 25 per cent put the First World War in 44the wrong century. Throughout the English-
  • 84. the wrong century. Throughout the English-speaking world, moreover, the argument has gainedground that it is other cultures we should study, notour own. The musical sampler sent into outer spacewith the Voyager spacecraft in 1977 featuredtwenty-seven tracks, only ten of them from Westerncomposers, including not only Bach, Mozart andBeethoven but also Louis Armstrong, Chuck Berryand Blind Willie Johnson. A history of the world ‘in100 objects’, published by the Director of the BritishMuseum in 2010, included no more than thirty 45products of Western civilization. Yet any history of the world’s civilizations thatunderplays the degree of their gradual subordinationto the West after 1500 is missing the essential point– the thing most in need of explanation. The rise ofthe West is, quite simply, the pre-eminent historicalphenomenon of the second half of the secondmillennium after Christ. It is the story at the very heartof modern history. It is perhaps the most challengingriddle historians have to solve. And we should solveit not merely to satisfy our curiosity. For it is only byidentifying the true causes of Western ascendancythat we can hope to estimate with any degree ofaccuracy the imminence of our decline and fall.
  • 85. CompetitionChina seems to have been long stationary, and hadprobably long ago acquired that full complement ofriches which is consistent with the nature of its lawsand institutions. But this complement may be muchinferior to what, with other laws and institutions, thenature of its soil, climate, and situation might admitof. A country which neglects or despises foreigncommerce, and which admits the vessels of foreignnations into one or two of its ports only, cannottransact the same quantity of business which it mightdo with different laws and institutions … A moreextensive foreign trade … could scarce fail toincrease very much the manufactures of China, andto improve very much the productive powers of itsmanufacturing industry. By a more extensivenavigation, the Chinese would naturally learn the artof using and constructing themselves all the differentmachines made use of in other countries, as well asthe other improvements of art and industry which arepractised in all the different parts of the world. Adam Smith
  • 86. Why are they small and yet strong? Why are welarge and yet weak? … What we have to learn fromthe barbarians is only … solid ships and effectiveguns. Feng Guifen
  • 87. TWO RIVERSThe Forbidden City (Gugong) was built in the heartof Beijing by more than a million workers, usingmaterials from all over the Chinese Empire. Withnearly a thousand buildings arranged, constructedand decorated to symbolize the might of the Mingdynasty, the Forbidden City is not only a relic of whatwas once the greatest civilization in the world; it isalso a reminder that no civilization lasts for ever. Aslate as 1776 Adam Smith could still refer to Chinaas ‘one of the richest, that is, one of the most fertile,best cultivated, most industrious, and most populouscountries in the world … a much richer country thanany part of Europe’. Yet Smith also identified China 1as ‘long stationary’ or ‘standing still’. In this he wassurely right. Within less than a century of theForbidden City’s construction between 1406 and1420, the relative decline of the East may be said tohave begun. The impoverished, strife-torn petty
  • 88. states of Western Europe embarked on half amillennium of almost unstoppable expansion. Thegreat empires of the Orient meanwhile stagnatedand latterly succumbed to Western dominance. Why did China founder while Europe forgedahead? Smith’s main answer was that the Chinesehad failed to ‘encourage foreign commerce’, andhad therefore missed out on the benefits ofcomparative advantage and the internationaldivision of labour. But other explanations werepossible. Writing in the 1740s, Charles deSecondat, baron de Montesquieu, blamed the‘settled plan of tyranny’, which he traced back toChina’s exceptionally large population, which in turnwas due to the East Asian weather: I reason thus: Asia has properly no temperate zone, as the places situated in a very cold climate immediately touch upon those which are exceedingly hot, that is, Turkey, Persia, India, China, Korea, and Japan. In Europe, on the contrary, the temperate zone is very extensive … it thence follows that each [country] resembles the country joining it; that there is no very extraordinary difference between them …
  • 89. Hence it comes that in Asia, the strong nations are opposed to the weak; the warlike, brave, and active people touch immediately upon those who are indolent, effeminate, and timorous; the one must, therefore, conquer, and the other be conquered. In Europe, on the contrary, strong nations are opposed to the strong; and those who join each other have nearly the same courage. This is the grand reason of the weakness of Asia, and of the strength of Europe; of the liberty of Europe, and of the slavery of Asia: a cause that I do not recollect ever to have 2 seen remarked.Later European writers believed that it was Westerntechnology that trumped the East – in particular, thetechnology that went on to produce the IndustrialRevolution. That was certainly how it appeared to theEarl Macartney after his distinctly disappointingmission to the Chinese imperial court in 1793 (seebelow). Another argument, popular in the twentiethcentury, was that Confucian philosophy inhibitedinnovation. Yet these contemporary explanations forOriental underachievement were mistaken. The firstof the six distinct killer applications that the West
  • 90. had but the East lacked was not commercial, norclimatic, nor technological, nor philosophical. It was,as Smith discerned, above all institutional.If, in the year 1420, you had taken two trips alongtwo rivers – the Thames and the Yangzi – you wouldhave been struck by the contrast. The Yangzi was part of a vast waterway complexthat linked Nanjing to Beijing, more than 500 miles tothe north, and Hangzhou to the south. At the core ofthis system was the Grand Canal, which at itsmaximum extent stretched for more than a thousandmiles. Dating back as far as the seventh century BC,with pound locks introduced as early as the tenthcentury AD and exquisite bridges like the multi-arched Precious Belt, the Canal was substantiallyrestored and improved in the reign of the MingEmperor Yongle (1402–24). By the time his chiefengineer Bai Ying had finished damming anddiverting the flow of the Yellow River, it was possiblefor nearly 12,000 grain barges to sail up and down 3the Canal every year. Nearly 50,000 men wereemployed in maintaining it. In the West, of course,
  • 91. the grandest of grand canals will always beVenice’s. But when the intrepid Venetian travellerMarco Polo had visited China in the 1270s, even hehad been impressed by the volume of traffic on theYangzi: The multitude of vessels that invest this great river is so great that no one who should read or hear would believe it. The quantity of merchandise carried up and down is past all belief. In fact it is so big, that it seems to be a sea rather than a river.China’s Grand Canal not only served as the principalartery of internal trade. It also enabled the imperialgovernment to smooth the price of grain through thefive state granaries, which bought when grain was 4cheap and sold when it was dear. Nanjing was probably the largest city in the worldin 1420, with a population of between half a millionand a million. For centuries it had been a thrivingcentre of the silk and cotton industries. Under theYongle Emperor it also became a centre of learning.The name Yongle means ‘perpetual happiness’;
  • 92. perpetual motion would perhaps have been a betterdescription. The greatest of the Ming emperors didnothing by halves. The compendium of Chineselearning he commissioned took the labour of morethan 2,000 scholars to complete and filled more than11,000 volumes. It was surpassed as the world’slargest encyclopaedia only in 2007, after a reign ofalmost exactly 600 years, by Wikipedia. But Yongle was not content with Nanjing. Shortlyafter his accession, he had resolved to build a newand more spectacular capital to the north: Beijing.By 1420, when the Forbidden City was completed,Ming China had an incontrovertible claim to be themost advanced civilization in the world.By comparison with the Yangzi, the Thames in theearly fifteenth century was a veritable backwater.True, London was a busy port, the main hub forEngland’s trade with the continent. The city’s mostfamous Lord Mayor, Richard Whittington, was aleading cloth merchant who had made his fortunefrom England’s growing exports of wool. And theEnglish capital’s shipbuilding industry was boosted
  • 93. by the need to transport men and supplies forEngland’s recurrent campaigns against the French.In Shadwell and Ratcliffe, the ships could be hauledup on to mud berths to be refitted. And there was, ofcourse, the Tower of London, more forbidding thanforbidden. But a visitor from China would scarcely havebeen impressed by all this. The Tower itself was acrude construction compared with the multiple hallsof the Forbidden City. London Bridge was anungainly bazaar on stilts compared with the PreciousBelt Bridge. And primitive navigation techniquesconfined English sailors to narrow stretches of water– the Thames and the Channel – where they couldremain within sight of familiar banks and coastlines.Nothing could have been more unimaginable, toEnglishmen and Chinese alike, than the idea ofships from London sailing up the Yangzi. By comparison with Nanjing, the London towhich Henry V returned in 1421 after his triumphsover the French – the most famous of them atAgincourt – was barely a town. Its old, patched-up
  • 94. city walls extended about 3 miles – again, a fractionthe size of Nanjing’s. It had taken the founder of theMing dynasty more than twenty years to build the wallaround his capital and it extended for as many miles,with gates so large that a single one could house3,000 soldiers. And it was built to last. Much of it stillstands today, whereas scarcely anything remains ofLondon’s medieval wall. By fifteenth-century standards, Ming China wasa relatively pleasant place to live. The rigidly feudalorder established at the start of the Ming era was 5being loosened by burgeoning internal trade. Thevisitor to Suzhou today can still see the architecturalfruits of that prosperity in the shady canals andelegant walkways of the old town centre. Urban life inEngland was very different. The Black Death – thebubonic plague caused by the flea-borne bacteriumYersinia pestis, which reached England in 1349 –had reduced London’s population to around 40,000,less than a tenth the size of Nanjing’s. Besides theplague, typhus, dysentery and smallpox were alsorife. And, even in the absence of epidemics, poor
  • 95. sanitation made London a death-trap. Without anykind of sewage system, the streets stank to highheaven, whereas human excrement wassystematically collected in Chinese cities and usedas fertilizer in outlying paddy fields. In the days whenDick Whittington was lord mayor – four timesbetween 1397 and his death in 1423 – the streets ofLondon were paved with something altogether lessappealing than gold. Schoolchildren used to be brought up to think ofHenry V as one of the heroic figures of Englishhistory, the antithesis of his predecessor but one, theeffete Richard II. Sad to relate, their kingdom wasvery far from the ‘sceptr’d isle’ of Shakespeare’sRichard II – more of a septic isle. The playwrightfondly called it ‘this other Eden, demi-paradise, /This fortress built by Nature for herself / Againstinfection …’ But English life expectancy at birth wason average a miserable thirty-seven years between1540 and 1800; the figure for London was in thetwenties. Roughly one in five English children died inthe first year of life; in London the figure was nearly
  • 96. one in three. Henry V himself became king at theage of twenty-six and was dead from dysentery atthe age of thirty-five – a reminder that most historyuntil relatively recently was made by quite young,short-lived people. Violence was endemic. War with France wasalmost a permanent condition. When not fighting theFrench, the English fought the Welsh, the Scots andthe Irish. When not fighting the Celts, they fought oneanother in a succession of wars for control of thecrown. Henry V’s father had come to the throne byviolence; his son Henry VI lost it by similar meanswith the outbreak of the Wars of the Roses, whichsaw four kings lose their thrones and forty adultpeers die in battle or on the scaffold. Between 1330and 1479 a quarter of deaths in the Englisharistocracy were violent. And ordinary homicide wascommonplace. Data from the fourteenth centurysuggest an annual homicide rate in Oxford of abovea hundred per 100,000 inhabitants. London wassomewhat safer with a rate of around fifty per100,000. The worst murder rates in the world today
  • 97. are in South Africa (sixty-nine per 100,000),Colombia (fifty-three) and Jamaica (thirty-four). EvenDetroit at its worst in the 1980s had a rate of just 6forty-five per 100,000. English life in this period truly was, as thepolitical theorist Thomas Hobbes later observed (ofwhat he called ‘the state of nature’), ‘solitary, poor,nasty, brutish and short’. Even for a prosperousNorfolk family like the Pastons, there could be littlesecurity. John Paston’s wife Margaret was ejectedbodily from her lodgings when she sought to upholdthe family’s rightful claim to the manor of Gresham,occupied by the previous owner’s heir. CaisterCastle had been left to the Pastons by Sir JohnFastolf, but it was besieged by the Duke of Norfolkshortly after John Paston’s death and held for 7seventeen long years. And England was among themore prosperous and less violent countries inEurope. Life was even nastier, more brutal andshorter in France – and it got steadily worse thefurther east you went in Europe. Even in the earlyeighteenth century the average Frenchman had a
  • 98. daily caloric intake of 1,660, barely above theminimum required to sustain human life and abouthalf the average in the West today. The average pre-revolutionary Frenchman stood just 5 feet 4¾ inches 8tall. And in all the continental countries for which wehave data for the medieval period, homicide rateswere higher than in England, with Italy – a land asfamous for its assassins as for its artists –consistently the worst. It is sometimes argued that Western Europe’svery nastiness was a kind of hidden advantage.Because high mortality rates were especiallycommon among the poor, perhaps they somehowhelped the rich to get richer. Certainly, oneconsequence of the Black Death was to giveEuropean per-capita income a boost; those whosurvived could earn higher wages because labourwas so scarce. It is also true that the children of therich in England were a good deal more likely to 9survive into adulthood than those of the poor. Yet itseems unlikely that these quirks of Europeandemography explain the great divergence of West
  • 99. and East. There are countries in the world todaywhere life is almost as wretched as it was inmedieval England, where pestilence, hunger, warand murder ensure average life expectancy stayspitifully low, where only the rich live long.Afghanistan, Haiti and Somalia show little sign ofbenefiting from these conditions. As we shall see,Europe leapt forward to prosperity and powerdespite death, not because of it. Modern scholars and readers need to bereminded what death used to be like. The Triumphof Death, the visionary masterwork of the Flemishartist Pieter Bruegel the Elder (c. 1525–69), is not ofcourse a work of realism, but Bruegel certainly didnot have to rely entirely on his imagination to depicta scene of stomach-wrenching death anddestruction. In a land ruled by an army of skeletons,a king lies dying, his treasure of no avail, while a doggnaws on a nearby corpse. In the background wesee two hanged men on gibbets, four men brokenon wheels and another about to be beheaded.Armies clash, houses burn, ships sink. In the
  • 100. foreground, men and women, young and old,soldiers and civilians are all driven pell-mell into anarrow, square tunnel. No one is spared. Even thetroubadour singing to his mistress is surely doomed.The artist himself died in his early forties, a youngerman than this author. A century later the Italian artist Salvator Rosapainted perhaps the most moving of all mementomori, entitled simply L’umana fragilità (‘HumanFrailty’). It was inspired by the plague that had swepthis native Naples in 1655, claiming the life of hisinfant son, Rosalvo, as well as carrying off hisbrother, his sister, her husband and five of theirchildren. Grinning hideously, the angel of deathlooms from the darkness behind Rosa’s wife toclaim their son, even as he makes his first attempt towrite. The mood of the heartbroken artist isimmortally summed up in just eight Latin wordsinscribed on the canvas: Conceptio culpa Nasci pena Labor vita
  • 101. Necesse mori‘Conception is sin, birth is pain, life is toil, death isinevitable.’ What more succinct description could bedevised of life in the Europe of that time?
  • 102. THE EUNUCH AND THE UNICORNHow can we understand the pre-eminence of theEast? For a start, Asian agriculture wasconsiderably more productive than European. InEast Asia an acre of land was enough to support afamily, such was the efficiency of rice cultivation,whereas in England the average figure was closer to20 acres. This helps explain why East Asia wasalready more populous than Western Europe. Themore sophisticated Oriental system of ricecultivation could feed many more mouths. No doubtthe Ming poet Zhou Shixiu saw the countrysidethrough rose-tinted spectacles; still, the picture hereis of a contented rural populace: Humble doorways loom by the dark path, a crooked lane goes way down to the inlet. Here ten families … have been living side by side for generations. The smoke from their fires intermingles wherever you look; so too, in their routines, the people are cooperative. One man’s son heads the house on the west, while another’s daughter is the western neighbour’s wife. A cold autumn wind blows at the soil god’s shrine; piglets and rice-beer are sacrificed to the Ancestor of the Fields, to whom the old shaman burns paper money, while boys pound on a bronze drum. Mist drapes the sugar cane garden in silence, and drizzling rain falls on the taro fields, as the people come home after the rites, spread mats, 10 and chat, half drunk …
  • 103. But such scenes of bucolic equipoise tell onlypart of the story. Later generations of Westernerstended to think of imperial China as a static society,allergic to innovation. In Confucianism and Taoism(1915) the German sociologist Max Weber definedConfucian rationalism as meaning ‘rationaladjustment to the world’, as opposed to the Westernconcept of ‘rational mastery of the world’. This was aview largely endorsed by the Chinese philosopherFeng Youlan in his History of Chinese Philosophy(1934), as well as by the Cambridge scholar JosephNeedham’s multi-volume history of Science andCivilization in China. Such cultural explanations –always attractive to those, like Feng and Needham,who sympathized with the Maoist regime after 1949– are hard to square with the evidence that, longbefore the Ming era, Chinese civilization hadconsistently sought to master the world throughtechnological innovation. We do not know for certain who designed thefirst water clock. It may have been the Egyptians, theBabylonians or the Chinese. But in 1086 Su Songadded a gear escapement to create the world’s firstmechanical clock, an intricate 40-foot-tall contraptionthat not only told the time but also charted themovements of the sun, moon and planets. MarcoPolo saw a bell tower operated by such a clockwhen he visited Dadu in northern China, not longafter the tower’s construction in 1272. Nothing
  • 104. remotely as accurate existed in England until acentury later, when the first astronomical clocks werebuilt for cathedrals in Norwich, St Alban’s andSalisbury. The printing press with movable type istraditionally credited to fifteenth-century Germany. Inreality it was invented in eleventh-century China.Paper too originated in China long before it wasintroduced in the West. So did paper money, 11wallpaper and toilet paper. It is often asserted that the English agriculturalpioneer Jethro Tull discovered the seed drill in 1701.In fact it was invented in China 2,000 years beforehis time. The Rotherham plough which, with itscurved iron mouldboard, was a key tool in theeighteenth-century English Agricultural Revolution,was another innovation anticipated by the 12Chinese. Wang Zhen’s 1313 Treatise onAgriculture was full of implements then unknown in 13the West. The Industrial Revolution was alsoprefigured in China. The first blast furnace forsmelting iron ore was not built in Coalbrookdale in1709 but in China before 200 BC. The oldest ironsuspension bridge in the world is not British butChinese; dating from as early as AD 65, remains of itcan still be seen near Ching-tung in Yunnan 14province. Even as late as 1788 British iron-production levels were still lower than thoseachieved in China in 1078. It was the Chinese who
  • 105. first revolutionized textile production with innovationslike the spinning wheel and the silk reeling frame, 15imported to Italy in the thirteenth century. And it isfar from true that the Chinese used their mostfamous invention, gunpowder, solely for fireworks.Jiao Yu and Liu Ji’s book Huolongjing, published inthe late fourteenth century, describes land and seamines, rockets and hollow cannonballs filled withexplosives. Other Chinese innovations include chemicalinsecticide, the fishing reel, matches, the magneticcompass, playing cards, the toothbrush and thewheelbarrow. Everyone knows that golf was inventedin Scotland. Yet the Dongxuan Records from theSong dynasty (960–1279) describe a game calledchuiwan. It was played with ten clubs, including acuanbang, pubang and shaobang, which areroughly analogous to our driver, two-wood and three-wood. The clubs were inlaid with jade and gold,suggesting that golf, then as now, was a game forthe well-off. And that was not all. As a new century dawned in1400, China was poised to achieve anothertechnological breakthrough, one that had thepotential to make the Yongle Emperor the masternot just of the Middle Kingdom, but of the world itself– literally ‘All under heaven’.In Nanjing today you can see a full-size replica of thetreasure ship of Admiral Zheng He, the most famoussailor in Chinese history. It is 400 feet long – nearly
  • 106. five times the size of the Santa María, in whichChristopher Columbus crossed the Atlantic in 1492.And this was only part of a fleet of more than 300huge ocean-going junks. With multiple masts andseparate buoyancy chambers to prevent them fromsinking in the event of a hole below the waterline,these ships were far larger than anything being builtin fifteenth-century Europe. With a combined crew of28,000, Zheng He’s navy was bigger than anythingseen in the West until the First World War. Their master and commander was anextraordinary man. At the age of eleven, he hadbeen captured on the field of battle by the founder ofthe Ming dynasty, Zhu Yuanzhang. As wascustomary, the captive was castrated. He was thenassigned as a servant to the Emperor’s fourth son,Zhu Di, the man who would seize and ascend theimperial throne as Yongle. In return for Zheng He’sloyal service, Yongle entrusted him with a task thatentailed exploring the world’s oceans. In a series of six epic voyages between 1405and 1424, Zheng He’s fleet ranged astoundingly far *and wide. The Admiral sailed to Thailand, Sumatra,Java and the once-great port of Calicut (today’sKozhikode in Kerala); to Temasek (later Singapore),Malacca and Ceylon; to Cuttack in Orissa; to 16Hormuz, Aden and up the Red Sea to Jeddah.Nominally, these voyages were a search forYongle’s predecessor, who had mysteriouslydisappeared, as well as for the imperial seal that
  • 107. had vanished with him. (Was Yongle trying to atonefor killing his way to the throne, or to cover up for thefact that he had done so?) But to find the lostemperor was not their real motive. Before his final voyage, Zheng He was ordered‘on imperial duty to Hormuz and other countries, withships of different sizes numbering sixty-one … and[to carry] coloured silks … [and] buy hemp-silk’. Hisofficers were also instructed to ‘buy porcelain, ironcauldrons, gifts and ammunition, paper, oil, wax, 17etc.’. This might seem to suggest a commercialrationale, and certainly the Chinese had goodscoveted by Indian Ocean merchants (porcelain, silkand musk), as well as commodities they wished tobring back to China (peppers, pearls, preciousstones, ivory and supposedly medicinal rhinoceros 18horns). In reality, however, the Emperor was notprimarily concerned with trade as Adam Smith laterunderstood it. In the words of a contemporaryinscription, the fleet was ‘to go to the [barbarians’]countries and confer presents on them so as totransform them by displaying our power …’. WhatYongle wanted in return for these ‘presents’ was forforeign rulers to pay tribute to him the way China’simmediate Asian neighbours did, and thereby toacknowledge his supremacy. And who could refuseto kowtow to an emperor possessed of so mighty a 19fleet?
  • 108. On three of the voyages, ships from Zheng He’sfleet reached the east coast of Africa. They did notstay long. Envoys from some thirty African rulerswere invited aboard to acknowledge the ‘cosmicascendancy’ of the Ming Emperor. The Sultan ofMalindi (in present-day Kenya) sent a delegationwith exotic gifts, among them a giraffe. Yonglepersonally received the animal at the gateway of theimperial palace in Nanjing. The giraffe was hailed asthe mythical qilin (unicorn) – ‘a symbol of perfect
  • 109. virtue, perfect government and perfect harmony in 20the empire and the universe’. But then, in 1424, this harmony was shattered.Yongle died – and China’s overseas ambitions wereburied with him. Zheng He’s voyages wereimmediately suspended, and only briefly revived witha final Indian Ocean expedition in 1432–3. Thehaijin decree definitively banned oceanic voyages.From 1500, anyone in China found building a shipwith more than two masts was liable to the deathpenalty; in 1551 it became a crime even to go to sea 21in such a ship. The records of Zheng He’s journeyswere destroyed. Zheng He himself died and wasalmost certainly buried at sea. What lay behind this momentous decision? Wasit the result of fiscal problems and political wranglesat the imperial court? Was it because the costs ofwar in Annam (modern-day Vietnam) were proving 22unexpectedly high? Or was it simply because ofConfucian scholars’ suspicion of the ‘odd things’Zheng He had brought back with him, not least thegiraffe? We may never be sure. But theconsequences of China’s turn inwards seem clear. Like the Apollo moon missions, Zheng He’svoyages had been a formidable demonstration ofwealth and technological sophistication. Landing aChinese eunuch on the East African coast in 1416was in many ways an achievement comparable withlanding an American astronaut on the moon in 1969.
  • 110. But by abruptly cancelling oceanic exploration,Yongle’s successors ensured that the economicbenefits of this achievement were negligible. The same could not be said for the voyages thatwere about to be undertaken by a very differentsailor from a diminutive European kingdom at theother end of the Eurasian landmass.
  • 111. THE SPICE RACEIt was in the Castelo de São Jorge, high in the hillsabove the windswept harbour of Lisbon, that thenewly crowned Portuguese King Manuel put Vascoda Gama in command of four small ships with a bigmission. All four vessels could quite easily havefitted inside Zheng He’s treasure ship. Theircombined crews were just 170 men. But theirmission – ‘to make discoveries and go in search ofspices’ – had the potential to tilt the whole worldwestwards. The spices in question were the cinnamon,cloves, mace and nutmeg which Europeans couldnot grow for themselves but which they craved toenhance the taste of their food. For centuries thespice route had run from the Indian Ocean up theRed Sea, or overland through Arabia and Anatolia.By the middle of the fifteenth century its lucrative finalleg leading into Europe was tightly controlled by the
  • 112. Turks and the Venetians. The Portuguese realizedthat if they could find an alternative route, down thewest coast of Africa and round the Cape of GoodHope to the Indian Ocean, then this business couldbe theirs. Another Portuguese mariner, BartolomeuDias, had rounded the Cape in 1488, but had beenforced by his crew to turn back. Nine years later, itwas up to da Gama to go all the way. King Manuel’s orders tell us something cruciallyimportant about the way Western civilizationexpanded overseas. As we shall see, the West hadmore than one advantage over the Rest. But the onethat really started the ball rolling was surely the fiercecompetition that drove the Age of Exploration. ForEuropeans, sailing round Africa was not aboutexacting symbolic tribute for some high and mightypotentate back home. It was about getting ahead oftheir rivals, both economically and politically. If daGama succeeded, then Lisbon trumped Venice.Maritime exploration, in short, was fifteenth-centuryEurope’s space race. Or, rather, its spice race. Da Gama set sail on 8 July 1497. When he and
  • 113. his fellow Portuguese sailors rounded the Cape ofGood Hope at the southernmost tip of Africa fourmonths later, they did not ask themselves whatexotic animals they should bring back for their King.They wanted to know if they had finally succeededwhere others had failed – in finding a new spiceroute. They wanted trade, not tribute. In February 1498, fully eighty-two years afterZheng He had landed there, da Gama arrived atMalindi. The Chinese had left little behind aside fromsome porcelain and DNA – that of twenty Chinesesailors who are said to have been shipwrecked nearthe island of Pate, to have swum ashore and stayed,marrying African wives and introducing the locals toChinese styles of basket-weaving and silk 23production. The Portuguese, by contrast,immediately saw Malindi’s potential as a tradingpost. Da Gama was especially excited to encounterIndian merchants there and it was almost certainlywith assistance from one of them that he was able tocatch the monsoon winds to Calicut. This eagerness to trade was far from being the
  • 114. only difference between the Portuguese and theChinese. There was a streak of ruthlessness –indeed, of downright brutality – about the men fromLisbon that Zheng He only rarely evinced. When theKing of Calicut looked askance at the goods thePortuguese had brought with them from Lisbon, daGama seized sixteen fishermen as hostages. On hissecond voyage to India, at the head of fifteen ships,he bombarded Calicut and horribly mutilated thecrews of captured vessels. On another occasion, heis said to have locked up the passengers aboard aship bound for Mecca and set it ablaze. The Portuguese engaged in exemplary violencebecause they knew that their opening of a new spiceroute round the Cape would meet resistance. Theyevidently believed in getting their retaliation in first.As Afonso de Albuquerque, the second Governor ofPortuguese India, proudly reported to his royalmaster in 1513: ‘At the rumour of our coming the[native] ships all vanished and even the birdsceased to skim over the water.’ Against some foes,to be sure, cannons and cutlasses were ineffective.
  • 115. Half of the men on da Gama’s first expedition did notsurvive the voyage, not least because their captainattempted to sail back to Africa against themonsoon wind. Only two of the original four shipsmade it back to Lisbon. Da Gama himself died ofmalaria during a third trip to India in 1524; hisremains were returned to Europe and are nowhoused in a fine tomb in the monastery of St Jeromein Lisbon. But other Portuguese explorers sailed on,past India, all the way to China. Once, the Chinesehad been able to regard the distant barbarians ofEurope with indifference, if not contempt. But nowthe spice race had brought the barbarians to thegates of the Middle Kingdom itself. And it must beremembered that, though the Portuguese hadprecious few goods the Chinese wanted, they didbring silver, for which Ming China had an immensedemand as coins took the place of paper moneyand labour service as the principal means ofpayment. In 1557 the Portuguese reached Macau, apeninsula on the Pearl River delta. Among the first
  • 116. things they did was to erect a gate – the Porta doCerco – bearing the inscription: ‘Dread ourgreatness and respect our virtue.’ By 1586 Macauwas an important enough trading outpost to berecognized by the Portuguese Crown as a city:Cidade de Nome de Deus (City of the Name ofGod). It was the first of many such Europeancommercial enclaves in China. Luís da Camões,author of The Lusiads, the epic poem of Portuguesemaritime expansion, lived in Macau for a time, afterbeing exiled from Lisbon for assault. How was it, hemarvelled, that a kingdom as small as Portugal –with a population less than 1 per cent of China’s –could aspire to dominate the trade of Asia’s vastlymore populous empires? And yet on his countrymensailed, establishing an amazing network of tradingposts that stretched like a global necklace fromLisbon, round the coast of Africa, Arabia and India,through the Straits of Malacca, to the spice islandsthemselves and then on still further, beyond evenMacau. ‘Were there more worlds still to discover,’ asda Camões wrote of his countrymen, ‘they would find
  • 117. 24them too!’The benefits of overseas expansion were not lost onPortugal’s European rivals. Along with Portugal,Spain had been first off the mark, seizing theinitiative in the New World (see Chapter 3) and alsoestablishing an Asian outpost in the Philippines,whence the Spaniards were able to ship immense 25quantities of Mexican silver to China. For decadesafter the Treaty of Tordesillas (1494) had split theworld between them, the two Iberian powers couldregard their imperial achievements with sublimeself-confidence. But the Spaniards’ rebellious andcommercially adept Dutch subjects came toappreciate the potential of the new spice route;indeed, by the mid-1600s they had overtaken thePortuguese in terms of both number of ships andtonnage sailing round the Cape. The French alsoentered the lists. And what of the English, whose territorialambitions had once extended no further than Franceand whose one novel economic idea in the Middle
  • 118. Ages had been selling wool to the Flemish? Howcould they possibly sit on the sidelines with newscoming in that their arch-foes the Spaniards andFrench were making their fortunes overseas? Sureenough, it was not long before the English joined inthe race for overseas commerce. In 1496 JohnCabot made his first attempt to cross the Atlanticfrom Bristol. In 1553 Hugh Willoughby and RichardChancellor set off from Deptford to seek a ‘North-east Passage’ to India. Willoughby froze to death inthe attempt, but Chancellor managed to get toArchangel and then made his way overland to thecourt of Ivan the Terrible in Moscow. On his return toLondon, Chancellor lost no time in setting up theMuscovy Company (its full name was ‘The Mysteryand Company of Merchant Adventurers for theDiscovery of Regions, Dominions, Islands, andPlaces unknown’) to develop trade with Russia.Similar projects proliferated with enthusiastic royalsupport, not only across the Atlantic but also alongthe spice route. By the middle of the seventeenthcentury England’s trade was flourishing from Belfastto Boston, from Bengal to the Bahamas.
  • 119. The world was being carved up in a frenzy of cut-throat competition. But the question still remains:why did the Europeans seem to have so much morecommercial fervour than the Chinese? Why wasVasco da Gama so clearly hungry for money –hungry enough to kill for it? You can find the answer by looking at maps ofmedieval Europe, which show literally hundreds ofcompeting states, ranging from the kingdoms of thewestern seaboard to the many city-states that laybetween the Baltic and the Adriatic, from Lübeck toVenice. There were roughly a thousand polities infourteenth-century Europe; and still around 500 moreor less independent units 200 years later. Why wasthis? The simplest answer is geography. China hadthree great rivers, the Yellow, the Yangzi and the 26Pearl, all flowing from west to east. Europe hadmultiple rivers flowing in multiple directions, not tomention a host of mountain ranges like the Alps andthe Pyrenees, to say nothing of the dense forestsand marshes of Germany and Poland. It may justhave been easier for marauding Mongols to access
  • 120. China; Europe was less readily penetrable by ahorde on horseback – and therefore had less needof unity. We cannot be sure exactly why the CentralAsian threat receded from Europe after Timur.Perhaps Russian defences just got better. Perhapsthe Mongol horses preferred steppe grass. True, as we have seen, conflict could bedevastating in Europe – think only of the mayhemcaused by the Thirty Years’ War in mid-seventeenth-century Germany. Woe betide those who lived at thefrontiers between the dozen or so bigger Europeanstates, which were at war on average more than two-thirds of the time between 1550 and 1650. In all theyears from 1500 to 1799, Spain was at war withforeign enemies 81 per cent of the time, England 53per cent and France 52 per cent. But this constantfighting had three unintended benefits. First, itencouraged innovation in military technology. Onland, fortifications had to grow stronger as cannongrew more powerful and manoeuvrable. The fate ofthe ruined ‘robber baron’s’ castle on the Tannenbergabove Seeheim in southern Germany served as a
  • 121. warning: in 1399 it became the first Europeanfortification to be destroyed using explosives. At sea, meanwhile, ships stayed small for goodreasons. Compared with the Mediterranean galley,the design of which had scarcely changed sinceRoman times, the late fifteenth-century Portuguesecaravel, with its square-rig sails and two masts,struck an ideal balance between speed andfirepower. It was much easier to turn and muchharder to hit than one of Zheng He’s giant junks. In1501 the French device of putting rows of cannon inspecial bays along both sides of a ship turned 27European ‘men of war’ into floating fortresses. If itcould somehow have come to a naval encounterbetween Zheng He and Vasco da Gama, it ispossible that the Portuguese would have sent thelumbering Chinese hulks to the bottom, just as theymade short work of the smaller but nimbler Arabdhows in the Indian Ocean – though at Tamao in1521 a Ming fleet did sink a Portuguese caravel. The second benefit of Europe’s almostunremitting warfare was that the rival states grew
  • 122. progressively better at raising the revenue to pay fortheir campaigns. Measured in terms of grams ofsilver per head, the rulers of England and Francewere able to collect far more in taxation than theirChinese counterpart throughout the period from 281520 to 1630. Beginning in thirteenth-century Italy,Europeans also began to experiment withunprecedented methods of government borrowing,planting the seeds of modern bond markets. Publicdebt was an institution wholly unknown in Ming Chinaand only introduced under European influence in thelate nineteenth century. Another fiscal innovation ofworld-changing significance was the Dutch idea ofgranting monopoly trading rights to joint-stockcompanies in return for a share of their profits andan understanding that the companies would act asnaval subcontractors against rival powers. TheDutch East India Company, founded in 1602, and itseponymous English imitator were the first truecapitalist corporations, with their equity capitaldivided into tradable shares paying cash dividendsat the discretion of their directors. Nothing
  • 123. resembling these astoundingly dynamic institutionsemerged in the Orient. And, though they increasedroyal revenue, they also diminished royalprerogatives by creating new and enduringstakeholders in the early-modern state: bankers,bond-holders and company directors. Above all, generations of internecine conflictensured that no one European monarch ever grewstrong enough to be able to prohibit overseasexploration. Even when the Turks advanced intoEastern Europe, as they did repeatedly in thesixteenth and seventeenth centuries, there was nopan-European emperor to order the Portuguese tosuspend their maritime explorations and focus on 29the enemy to the east. On the contrary, theEuropean monarchs all encouraged commerce,conquest and colonization as part of theircompetition with one another. Religious war was the bane of European life formore than a century after the Lutheran Reformationswept through Germany (see Chapter 2). But thebloody battles between Protestants and Roman
  • 124. Catholics, as well as the periodic and localizedpersecution of Jews, also had beneficial side-effects. In 1492 the Jews were expelled from Castileand Aragon as religious heretics. Initially, many ofthem sought refuge in the Ottoman Empire, but aJewish community was established in Venice after1509. In 1566, with the revolt of the Dutch againstSpanish rule and the establishment of the UnitedProvinces as a Protestant republic, Amsterdambecame another haven of tolerance. When theProtestant Huguenots were expelled from France in1685, they were able to resettle in England, Holland 30and Switzerland. And, of course, religious fervourprovided another incentive to expand overseas. ThePortuguese Prince Henrique the Navigatorencouraged his sailors to explore the African coastpartly in the hope that they might find the mythicalkingdom of the lost Christian saint Prester John, andthat he might then lend Europe a hand against theTurks. In addition to insisting on exemption fromIndian customs duties, Vasco da Gama brazenlydemanded that the King of Calicut expel all Muslims
  • 125. from his realm and waged a campaign of targetedpiracy against Muslim shipping bound for Mecca. In short, the political fragmentation thatcharacterized Europe precluded the creation ofanything remotely resembling the Chinese Empire. Italso propelled Europeans to seek opportunities –economic, geopolitical and religious – in distantlands. You might say it was a case of divide and rule– except that, paradoxically, it was by being dividedthemselves that Europeans were able to rule theworld. In Europe small was beautiful because itmeant competition – and competition not justbetween states, but also within states. Officially, Henry V was king of England, Walesand indeed France, to which he laid claim. But onthe ground in rural England real power was in thehands of the great nobility, the descendants of themen who had imposed Magna Carta on King John,as well as thousands of gentry landowners andinnumerable corporate bodies, clerical and lay. TheChurch was not under royal control until the reign ofHenry VIII. Towns were often self-governing. And,
  • 126. crucially, the most important commercial centre inthe country was almost completely autonomous.Europe was not only made up of states; it was alsomade up of estates: aristocrats, clergymen andtownsfolk. The City of London Corporation can trace itsorigin and structure back as far as the twelfthcentury. Remarkably, in other words, the Lord Mayor,the sheriffs, the aldermen, Common Council,liverymen and freemen have all been around formore than 800 years. The Corporation is one of theearliest examples of an autonomous commercialinstitution – in some ways the forerunner of thecorporations we know today, in other ways theforerunner of democracy itself. As early as the 1130s, Henry I grantedLondoners the right to choose as their own sheriffand justice ‘whom they will of themselves’, and toadminister their judicial and financial affairs without 31interference from the Crown or other authorities. In1191, while Richard I was crusading in the HolyLand, the right to elect a mayor was also granted, a
  • 127. 32right confirmed by King John in 1215. As a result,the City was never in awe of the Crown. With thesupport of the City’s freemen, Mayor Thomas fitzThomas supported Simon de Montfort’s revoltagainst Henry III in 1263–5. In 1319 it was the turn ofEdward II to confront the City as the mercers (clothdealers) sought to reduce the privileges of foreignmerchants. When the Crown resisted, the ‘Londonmob’ supported Roger Mortimer’s deposition of theKing. In the reign of Edward III, the tide turnedagainst the City; Italian and Hanseatic merchantsestablished themselves in London, not least byproviding the Crown with loans on generous terms, apractice which continued during Richard II’s 33minority. But the Londoners continued to challengeroyal authority, showing little enthusiasm for theCrown’s cause during either the Peasants’ Revolt(1381) or the challenge to Richard’s rule by theLords Appellant. In 1392 the King revoked London’sprivileges and liberties, but five years later agenerous ‘gift’ of £10,000 – negotiated by MayorWhittington – secured their restoration. Loans and
  • 128. gifts to the Crown became the key to urbanautonomy. The wealthier the City became, the moresuch leverage it had. Whittington lent Henry IV at 34least £24,000 and his son Henry V around £7,500. Not only did the City compete with the Crown forpower. There was competition even within the City.The livery companies can all trace their origins backto the medieval period: the weavers to 1130, thebakers to 1155, the fishmongers to 1272, thegoldsmiths, merchant taylors and skinners to 1327,the drapers to 1364, the mercers to 1384 and thegrocers to 1428. These guilds or ‘misteries’ exertedconsiderable power over their particular sectors ofthe economy, but they had political power too.Edward III acknowledged this when he declaredhimself to be ‘a brother’ of the Linen-Armourers’(later Merchant Taylors’) Guild. By 1607 theMerchant Taylors could count as past and presenthonorary members seven kings and a queen,seventeen princes and dukes, nine countesses,duchesses and baronesses, over 200 earls, lordsand other gentlemen and an archbishop. The ‘great
  • 129. twelve’ companies – in order of precedence:mercers, grocers, drapers, fishmongers, goldsmiths,skinners, merchant taylors, haberdashers, salters,ironmongers, vintners and clothworkers – are areminder of the power that London’s craftsmen andmerchants were once able to wield, even if their roletoday is largely ceremonial. In their competitiveheyday they were as likely to fight as to dine with one 35another.Among other things, this multi-level competition,between states and within states – even within cities– helps to explain the rapid spread and advancingtechnology of the mechanical clock in Europe.Already in the 1330s Richard of Wallingford hadinstalled a remarkably sophisticated mechanicalclock in the wall of the south transept of St AlbansAbbey, which showed the motion of the moon, of thetides and of certain celestial bodies. With theirdistinctive hourly bells (hence the name: clock,clokke, Glocke, cloche), the mechanical clock andthe spring-driven clock that supplanted it in thefifteenth century were not only more accurate than
  • 130. Chinese waterclocks. They were also intended to bedisseminated, rather than monopolized by theEmperor’s astronomers. Thus, if one town’scathedral installed a fine new dial in its tower, itsnearest rival soon felt obliged to follow suit. IfProtestant watchmakers were unwelcome in Franceafter 1685, the Swiss gladly took them in. And, aswith military technology, competition bredimprovement as craftsmen tinkered to make smallbut cumulative improvements to the accuracy andelegance of the product. By the time the Jesuitmissionary Matteo Ricci brought European clocks toChina in the late sixteenth century, they were somuch superior to their Oriental counterparts that they 36were greeted with dismay. In 1602, at the requestof the Wanli Emperor, Ricci produced a beautifulrice-paper map of the world, which depicted Chinaat the centre of the earth. He must have known,however, that in terms of technology China was nowdrifting to the global periphery. Because of the greater precision it permitted inmeasurement and in the co-ordination of action, the
  • 131. rise of the clock and later the portable watch went (itmight be said) hand in hand with the rise of Europeand of the spread of Western civilization. With everyindividual timepiece, a little bit more time ran out forthe age of Oriental pre-eminence.By comparison with the patchwork quilt of Europe,East Asia was – in political terms, at least – a vastmonochrome blanket. The Middle Kingdom’sprincipal competitors were the predatory Mongols tothe north and the piratical Japanese to the east.Since the time of Qin Shihuangdi – often referred toas the ‘First Emperor’ of China (221–210 BC) – thethreat from the north had been the bigger one – theone that necessitated the spectacular investment inimperial defence we know today as the Great Wall.Nothing remotely like it was constructed in Europefrom the time of Hadrian to the time of ErichHonecker. Comparable in scale was the network ofcanals and ditches that irrigated China’s arableland, which the Marxist Sinologist Karl Wittfogel sawas the most important products of a ‘hydraulic-bureaucratic’ Oriental despotism.
  • 132. The Forbidden City in Beijing is anothermonument to monolithic Chinese power. To get asense of its immense size and distinctive ethos, thevisitor should walk through the Gate of SupremeHarmony to the Hall of Supreme Harmony, whichcontains the Dragon Throne itself, then to the Hall ofCentral Harmony, the emperor’s private room, andthen to the Hall of Preserving Harmony, the site ofthe final stage of the imperial civil serviceexamination (see below). Harmony ( ), it seemsclear, was inextricably bound up with the idea of 37undivided imperial authority. Like the Great Wall, the Forbidden City simplyhad no counterpart in the fifteenth-century West,least of all in London, where power was subdividedbetween the Crown, the Lords Temporal andSpiritual and the Commons, as well as theCorporation of the City of London and the liverycompanies. Each had their palaces and halls, butthey were all very small by Oriental standards. In thesame way, while medieval European kingdomswere run by a combination of hereditary landowners
  • 133. and clergymen, selected (and often ruthlesslydiscarded) on the basis of royal favour, China wasruled from the top down by a Confucian bureaucracy,recruited on the basis of perhaps the mostdemanding examination system in all history. Thosewho aspired to a career in the imperial service hadto submit to three stages of gruelling testsconducted in specially built exam centres, like theone that can still be seen in Nanjing today – a hugewalled compound containing thousands of tiny cellslittle larger than the lavatory on a train: These tiny brick compartments [a European traveller wrote] were about 1.1 metres deep, 1 metre wide and 1.7 metres high. They possessed two stone ledges, one servicing as a table, the other as a seat. During the two days an examination lasted the candidates were observed by soldiers stationed in the lookout tower … The only movement allowed was the passage of servants replenishing food and water supplies, or removing human waste. When a candidate became tired, he could lay out his bedding and take a cramped rest. But a bright light in the neighbouring cell would probably compel him to take up his brush again … some candidates went
  • 134. 38 completely insane under the pressure.No doubt after three days and two nights in ashoebox, it was the most able – and certainly themost driven – candidates who passed theexamination. But with its strong emphasis on theFour Books and Five Classics of Confucianism, withtheir bewildering 431,286 characters to bememorized, and the rigidly stylized eight-leggedessay introduced in 1487, it was an exam that 39rewarded conformity and caution. It was fiercelycompetitive, no doubt, but it was not the kind ofcompetition that promotes innovation, much less theappetite for change. The written language at theheart of Chinese civilization was designed for theproduction of a conservative elite and the exclusionof the masses from their activities. The contrastcould scarcely be greater with the competingvernaculars of Europe – Italian, French and Castilianas well as Portuguese and English – usable for eliteliterature but readily accessible to a wider publicwith relatively simple and easily scalable
  • 135. 40education. As Confucius himself said: ‘A common manmarvels at uncommon things. A wise man marvels atthe commonplace.’ But there was too much that wascommonplace in the way Ming China worked, andtoo little that was new.
  • 136. THE MEDIOCRE KINGDOMCivilizations are complex things. For centuries theycan flourish in a sweet spot of power and prosperity.But then, often quite suddenly, they can tip over theedge into chaos. The Ming dynasty in China had been born in1368, when the warlord Yuanzhang renamed himselfHongwu, meaning ‘vast military power’. For most ofthe next three centuries, as we have seen, MingChina was the world’s most sophisticated civilizationby almost any measure. But then, in middle of theseventeenth century, the wheels came flying off. Thisis not to exaggerate its early stability. Yongle had,after all, succeeded his father Hongwu only after aperiod of civil war and the deposition of the rightfulsuccessor, his eldest brother’s son. But the mid-seventeenth-century crisis was unquestionably abigger disruption. Political factionalism wasexacerbated by a fiscal crisis as the fallingpurchasing power of silver eroded the real value of 41tax revenues. Harsh weather, famine andepidemic disease opened the door to rebellion 42within and incursions from without. In 1644 Beijing
  • 137. itself fell to the rebel leader Li Zicheng. The last MingEmperor hanged himself out of shame. Thisdramatic transition from Confucian equipoise toanarchy took little more than a decade. The results of the Ming collapse weredevastating. Between 1580 and 1650 conflict andepidemics reduced the Chinese population bybetween 35 and 40 per cent. What had gone wrong?The answer is that turning inwards was fatal,especially for a complex and densely populatedsociety like China’s. The Ming system had created ahigh-level equilibrium – impressive outwardly, butfragile inwardly. The countryside could sustain aremarkably large number of people, but only on thebasis of an essentially static social order that literallyceased to innovate. It was a kind of trap. And whenthe least little thing went wrong, the trap snappedshut. There were no external resources to draw on.True, a considerable body of scholarship has soughtto represent Ming China as a prosperous society,with considerable internal trade and a vibrant market 43for luxury goods. The most recent Chineseresearch, however, shows that per-capita incomestagnated in the Ming era and the capital stock 44actually shrank. UK/China per capita GDP Ratio, 1000–2008
  • 138. By contrast, as England’s populationaccelerated in the late seventeenth century,overseas expansion played a vital role in propellingthe country out of the Malthusian trap. Transatlantictrade brought an influx of new nutrients like potatoesand sugar – an acre of sugar cane yielded the same
  • 139. 45amount of energy as 12 acres of wheat – as wellas plentiful cod and herring. Colonization allowed theemigration of surplus population. Over time, theeffect was to raise productivity, incomes, nutritionand even height. Consider the fate of another island people,situated much like the English on an archipelago offthe Eurasian coast. While the English aggressivelyturned outwards, laying the foundations of what canjustly be called ‘Anglobalization’, the Japanese tookthe opposite path, with the Tokugawa shogunate’spolicy of strict seclusion (sakoku) after 1640. Allforms of contact with the outside world wereproscribed. As a result, Japan missed out entirely onthe benefits associated with a rapidly rising level ofglobal trade and migration. The results were striking.By the late eighteenth century, more than 28 per centof the English farmworker’s diet consisted of animalproducts; his Japanese counterpart lived on amonotonous intake, 95 per cent cereals, mostly rice.This nutritional divergence explains the marked gapin stature that developed after 1600. The averageheight of English convicts in the eighteenth centurywas 5 feet 7 inches. The average height ofJapanese soldiers in the same period was just 5 46feet 2½ inches. When East met West by that time,they could no longer look one another straight in the
  • 140. eye. In other words, long before the IndustrialRevolution, little England was pulling ahead of thegreat civilizations of the Orient because of thematerial advantages of commerce and colonization.The Chinese and Japanese route – turning awayfrom foreign trade and intensifying rice cultivation –meant that with population growth, incomes fell, andso did nutrition, height and productivity. When cropsfailed or their cultivation was disrupted, the resultswere catastrophic. The English were luckier in theirdrugs, too: long habituated to alcohol, they wereroused from inebriation in the seventeenth century byAmerican tobacco, Arabic coffee and Chinese tea.They got the stimulation of the coffee house, part 47café, part stock exchange, part chat-room; theChinese ended up with the lethargy of the opiumden, their pipes filled by none other than the British 48East India Company.Not all European commentators recognized, asAdam Smith did, China’s ‘stationary state’. In 1697the German philosopher and mathematician Leibnizannounced: ‘I shall have to post a notice on my door:Bureau of Information for Chinese Knowledge.’ In hisbook The Latest News from China, he suggestedthat ‘Chinese missionaries should be sent to us toteach the aims and practice of natural theology, as
  • 141. teach the aims and practice of natural theology, aswe send missionaries to them to instruct them inrevealed religion.’ ‘One need not be obsessed withthe merits of the Chinese,’ declared the Frenchphilosophe Voltaire in 1764, ‘to recognize … thattheir empire is in truth the best that the world hasever seen.’ Two years later the Physiocrat FrançoisQuesnay published The Despotism of China, whichpraised the primacy of agriculture in Chineseeconomic policy. Yet those on the other side of the Channel whoconcerned themselves more with commerce andindustry – and who were also less inclined toidealize China as a way of obliquely criticizing theirown government – discerned the reality of Chinesestagnation. In 1793 the 1st Earl Macartney led anexpedition to the Qianlong Emperor, in a vain effortto persuade the Chinese to reopen their empire totrade. Though Macartney pointedly declined tokowtow, he brought with him ample tribute: aGerman-made planetarium, ‘the largest and mostperfect glass lens that perhaps was ever fabricated’,as well as telescopes, theodolites, air-pumps,electrical machines and ‘an extensive apparatus forassisting to explain and illustrate the principles ofscience’. Yet the ancient Emperor (he was in hiseighties) and his minions were unimpressed bythese marvels of Western civilization:
  • 142. it was presently discovered that the taste [for the sciences], if it ever existed, was now completely worn out … [All] were … lost and thrown away on the ignorant Chinese … who immediately after the departure of the embassador [sic] are said to have piled them up in lumber rooms of Yuen-min-yuen [the Old Summer Palace]. Not more successful were the various specimens of elegance and art displayed in the choicest examples of British manufactures. The impression which the contemplation of such articles seemed to make on the minds of the courtiers was that alone of jealousy … Such conduct may probably be ascribed to a kind of state policy, which discourages the introduction of novelties …The Emperor subsequently addressed a dismissiveedict to King George III: ‘There is nothing we lack,’he declared. ‘We have never set much store onstrange or ingenious objects, nor do we need any 49more of your country’s manufactures.’ Macartney’s abortive opening to China perfectlysymbolized the shift of global power from East toWest that had taken place since 1500. The MiddleKingdom, once the mother of inventions, was nowthe mediocre kingdom, wilfully hostile to otherpeople’s innovations. That ingenious Chinesecreation, the clock, had come home, but in itsmodified and improved European form, with evermore accurate mechanisms composed of springs
  • 143. and cogs. Today there is an entire room in theForbidden City given over to a vast imperialcollection of timekeeping machines. Unlike thedismissive Qianlong Emperor, his predecessorshad obsessively collected clocks. Nearly all weremade in Europe, or by European craftsmen based inChina. The West’s ascendancy was confirmed in June1842, when Royal Naval gunboats sailed up theYangzi to the Grand Canal in retaliation for thedestruction of opium stocks by a zealous Chineseofficial. China had to pay an indemnity of 21 millionsilver dollars, open five ports to British trade andcede the island of Hong Kong. It was ironic butappropriate that this first of the so-called ‘UnequalTreaties’ was signed in Nanjing, at the JinghaiTemple – originally built in honour of Admiral ZhengHe and Tianfei, the Goddess of the Sea, who hadwatched over him and his fleet more than fourcenturies before.They are building ships again in China – vast shipscapable of circumnavigating the globe, leaving withcontainers full of Chinese manufactures and bringingback the raw materials necessary to feed thecountry’s insatiably growing industrial economy.When I visited the biggest shipyard in Shanghai inJune 2010, I was staggered by the sheer size of the
  • 144. vessels under construction. The scene made theGlasgow docks of my boyhood pale intoinsignificance. In the factories of Wenzhou, workerschurn out suits by the hundred thousand and plasticpens by the million. And the waters of the Yangzi areconstantly churned by countless barges piled highwith coal, cement and ore. Competition, companies,markets, trade – these are things that China onceturned its back on. Not any more. Today, AdmiralZheng He, the personification of Chineseexpansionism and for so long forgotten, is a hero inChina. In the words of the greatest economicreformer of the post-Mao era, Deng Xiaoping: No country that wishes to become developed today can pursue closed-door policies. We have tasted this bitter experience and our ancestors have tasted it. In the early Ming Dynasty in the reign of Yongle when Zheng He sailed the Western Ocean, our country was open. After Yongle died the dynasty went into decline. China was invaded. Counting from the middle of the Ming Dynasty to the Opium Wars, through 300 years of isolation China was made poor, and became backward and mired in darkness and ignorance. No open door is not an option.It is a plausible reading of history (and oneremarkably close to Adam Smith’s). Thirty years ago, if you had predicted that withinhalf a century China’s would be the world’s biggest
  • 145. half a century China’s would be the world’s biggesteconomy, you would have been dismissed as afantasist. But if back in 1420 you had predicted thatWestern Europe would one day be producing morethan the whole of Asia, and that within 500 years theaverage Briton would be nine times richer than theaverage Chinese, you would have been regarded asno more realistic. Such was the dynamic effect ofcompetition in Western Europe – and the retardingeffect of political monopoly in East Asia.
  • 146. ScienceI feigned a mighty interest in science; and, by dint ofpretending, soon became really attached to it. Iceased to be a man of affairs … I resolved to leavemy native land, and my withdrawal from courtsupplied a plausible excuse. I waited on the king; Iemphasized the great desire I had to acquaint myselfwith the sciences of the West, and hinted that mytravels might even be of service to him. MontesquieuIt would be of some use to explain how the sandycountry of Brandenburg came to wield such powerthat greater efforts have been marshalled against itthan were ever mustered against Louis XIV. Voltaire
  • 147. THE SIEGESince the eruption of Islam from the Arabian desertsin the seventh century, there have been repeatedclashes between West and East. The followers ofMuhammad waged jihad against the followers ofJesus Christ, and the Christians returned thecompliment with crusades to the Holy Land – nine inall between 1095 and 1272 – and the reconquest ofSpain and Portugal. For most of the past 300 years,give or take the odd temporary setback, the Westhas consistently won this clash of civilizations. Oneof the main reasons for this has been the superiorityof Western science. This advantage, however, did 1not always exist. It was not only religious fervour that enabled thesuccessors of the Prophet Muhammad to establisha caliphate which, by the middle of the eighthcentury, extended from Spain, right across North
  • 148. Africa, through its Arabian heartland, north throughSyria and into the Caucasus, then eastwards acrossPersia and into Afghanistan – all the way fromToledo to Kabul. The Abbasid caliphate was at thecutting edge of science. In the Bayt al-Hikma (Houseof Wisdom) founded in ninth-century Baghdad byCaliph Harun al-Rashid, Greek texts by Aristotle andother authors were translated into Arabic. Thecaliphate also produced what some regard as thefirst true hospitals, such as the bimaristanestablished at Damascus by Caliph al-Waleed binAbdel Malek in 707, which was designed to curerather than merely house the sick. It was home towhat some regard as the first true institution ofhigher education, the University of Al-Karaouinefounded in Fez in 859. Building on Greek andespecially Indian foundations, Muslimmathematicians established algebra (from theArabic al-jabr, meaning ‘restoration’) as a disciplinedistinct from arithmetic and geometry. The firstalgebraic textbook was The Compendious Book onCalculation by Completion and Balancing (Hisabal-Jabr W’al-Musqabalah), written in Arabic by the
  • 149. Persian scholar Muhammad ibn Mūsā al-Khwārizmīin around 820. The first truly experimental scientistwas a Muslim: Abū ‘Alī al-H˙asan ibn al-H˙asan ibnal-Haytham (965–c. 1039), whose seven-volumeBook of Optics overthrew a host of ancientmisconceptions, notably the idea that we are able tosee objects because our eyes emit light. It was Ibnal-Haytham who first appreciated why a projectilewas more likely to penetrate a wall if it struck it atright angles, who first discerned that the stars werenot solid bodies, and who built the first cameraobscura – the pinhole camera that is still used todayto introduce schoolchildren to the science of optics.His studies were carried forward by the work of thelate thirteenth-century Persian scholar Kamal al-Din 2al-Farisi on rainbows. The West owes a debt to themedieval Muslim world, for both its custodianship ofclassical wisdom and its generation of newknowledge in cartography, medicine and philosophyas well as in mathematics and optics. The Englishthinker Roger Bacon acknowledged it: ‘Philosophy 3is drawn from the Muslims.’
  • 150. So how did the Muslim world come to fall behindthe West in the realm of science? And how exactlydid a scientific revolution help Western civilizationtake over the world, militarily as well asacademically? To answer those questions, we musttravel back more than three centuries, to the lasttime an Islamic empire seriously menaced thesecurity of the West.The year was 1683 and once again – just as hadhappened in 1529 – an Ottoman army was at thegates of Vienna. At its head was Kara MustafaKöprülü, Grand Vizier to Sultan Mehmed IV. An Anatolian dynasty established in the ruins ofthe Byzantine Empire, the Ottomans had been thestandard bearers of Islam since their conquest ofConstantinople in 1453. Their empire did not have *the great eastward sweep of the Abbasid caliphate,but it had succeeded in spreading Islam into hithertoChristian territory – not only the old Byzantine realmson either side of the Black Sea Straits, but alsoBulgaria, Serbia and Hungary. Belgrade had fallento the Ottomans in 1521, Buda in 1541. Ottoman
  • 151. naval power had also brought Rhodes to its knees(1522). Vienna might have survived (as did Malta)but, having also extended Ottoman rule fromBaghdad to Basra, from Van in the Caucasus toAden at the mouth of the Red Sea, and along theBarbary Coast from Algiers to Tripoli, Suleiman theMagnificent (1520–66) could legitimately claim: ‘Iam the Sultan of Sultans, the Sovereign ofSovereigns, the distributor of crowns to themonarchs of the globe, the shadow of God upon †Earth …’ The mosque in Istanbul that bears hisname is an enduring vindication of his claim togreatness. Less well known is the fact that Suleimanalso built a medical school (the Dâruttib or 4Süleymaniye Tip Medresesi). A law-maker and agifted poet, Suleiman combined religious power,political power and economic power (including thesetting of prices). In his eyes, the mighty Holy RomanEmperor Charles V was merely ‘the King of 5Vienna’, and Portugal’s merchant adventurers wereno better than pirates. With Suleiman on the throne,it was far from inconceivable that the Ottomans
  • 152. would rise to the Portuguese challenge in the Indian 6Ocean and defeat it. In the eyes of the late sixteenth-century envoyOgier Ghiselin de Busbecq, the contrast betweenthe Habsburg and Ottoman empires was alarming inthe extreme: It makes me shudder to think of what the result of a struggle between such different systems must be; one of us must prevail and the other be destroyed, at any rate we cannot both exist in safety. On their side is the vast wealth of their empire, unimpaired resources, experience and practice in arms, a veteran soldiery, an uninterrupted series of victories, readiness to endure hardships, union, order, discipline, thrift and watchfulness. On ours are found an empty exchequer, luxurious habits, exhausted resources, broken spirits, a raw and insubordinate soldiery, and greedy quarrels; there is no regard for discipline, license runs riot, the men indulge in drunkenness and debauchery, and worst of all, the enemy are accustomed to victory, we to defeat. Can 7 we doubt what the result must be?
  • 153. The seventeenth century saw further Ottoman gains:Crete was conquered in 1669. The Sultan’s reachextended even into the Western Ukraine. As a naval 8power, too, the Ottomans remained formidable.The events of 1683 were therefore long dreaded inthe West. In vain did Holy Roman Emperor Leopold *I cling to the peace that had been signed at Vasvár 9in 1664. In vain did he tell himself that Louis XIVwas the more serious threat. In the summer of 1682 the Sultan made his firstmove, acknowledging the Magyar rebel Imre Thökölyas king of Hungary in return for his recognition ofOttoman suzerainty (overlordship). In the course ofthe following winter an immense force wasassembled at Adrianople and then deployed toBelgrade. By June 1683 the Turks had enteredHabsburg territory. By the beginning of July they hadtaken Győr. In Vienna, meanwhile, Leopold dithered.The city’s defences were woefully inadequate andthe City Guard had been decimated by a recentoutbreak of plague. The rusty Habsburg forces under
  • 154. Charles of Lorraine seemed unable to halt theOttoman advance. False hope was furnished byLeopold’s envoy in Istanbul, who assured him that 10the Turkish force was ‘mediocre’. On 13 July 1683 this supposedly mediocre force– a 60,000-strong Ottoman army of Janissaries andsipahi cavalry, supported by 80,000 Balkanauxiliaries and a force of fearsome Tatars – reachedthe gates of Vienna. In overall command was GrandVizier Kara Mustafa Köprülü, whose nickname Kara– ‘the black’ – referred as much to his character asto his complexion. This was a man who, aftercapturing a Polish city in 1674, had flayed hisprisoners alive. Having pitched his camp 450 pacesfrom the city walls, Kara Mustafa presented thedefenders with a choice: Accept Islam, and live in peace under the Sultan! Or deliver up the fortress, and live in peace under the Sultan as Christians; and if any man prefer, let him depart peaceably, taking his goods with him! But if you insist [on resisting], then death or spoliation or 11 slavery shall be the fate of you all!
  • 155. As the Muslim conquerors of Byzantium confrontedthe Christian heirs of Rome, bells rang out acrossCentral Europe, summoning the faithful to pray fordivine intercession. The graffiti on the walls of StStephen’s Cathedral give a flavour of the mood inVienna: ‘Muhammad, you dog, go home!’ That,however, was the limit of Leopold’s defiance.Though the idea of flight affronted his ‘sense ofdignity’, he was persuaded to slip away to safety. The Ottoman encampment was itself astatement of self-confidence. Kara Mustafa had a 12garden planted in front of his own palatial tent. Themessage was clear: the Turks had time to starve theViennese into surrender if necessary. Strange andthreatening music swept from the camp across thecity walls as the Ottomans beat their immense kösdrums. The noise also served to cover the sounds ofshovels as the Turks dug tunnels and coveredtrenches. The detonation of a huge mine on 25 Julysuccessfully breached the city palisades, the firstline of defence. Another massive explosion cleared
  • 156. a way to the Austrians’ entrenchment at the ravelin, atriangular free-standing outer fortification. On 4September the Turks nearly overwhelmed thedefenders of the central fort itself. But then, fatally, Kara Mustafa hesitated. Autumnwas in the air. His lines of communication back toOttoman territory were over-extended. His men werenow running short of supplies. And he was uncertainwhat his next move should be if he actuallysucceeded in capturing Vienna. The Turk’shesitation gave Leopold vital time to assemble arelief force. Before the Ottoman invasion he hadsigned a treaty of mutual defence with the Kingdomof Poland, so it was the newly elected Polish KingJan III Sobieski who led the 60,000-strong Polish–German army towards Vienna. Sobieski was pasthis prime, but intent on glory. It was in fact a motleyforce he led: Poles, Bavarians, Franconians andSaxons, as well as Habsburg troops. And it madeslow progress towards Vienna, not least because itsleader’s grasp of Austrian geography was quiteshaky. But finally, in the early hours of 12 September
  • 157. 1683, the counter-attack began with a burst of rocketfire. The Ottoman forces were divided, some stillfrantically trying to break into the city, others fightinga rearguard action against the advancing Polishinfantry. Kara Mustafa had done too little to defendthe approach routes. At 5 p.m. Sobieski launchedhis cavalry in a massive full-tilt charge from theKahlenberg, the hill that overlooks Vienna, towardsthe Ottoman encampment. As one Turkisheyewitness put it, the Polish hussars looked ‘like aflood of black pitch coming down the mountain,consuming everything it touched’. The final phase ofthe battle was ferocious but swiftly decided.Sobieski entered Kara Mustafa’s tent to find itempty. The siege of Vienna was over. Hailed by the defending Viennese as theirsaviour, Sobieski was exultant, modifying Caesar’sfamous words to: ‘We came, we saw, Godconquered.’ Captured Ottoman cannon were melteddown to make a new bell for St Stephen’s that wasdecorated with six embossed Turkish heads. Theretreating Kara Mustafa paid the ultimate price for
  • 158. his failure. At Esztergom the Turks suffered such asevere thrashing that the Sultan ordered hisimmediate execution. He was strangled in the time-honoured Ottoman fashion, with a silken cord. A host of legends sprang up in the wake ofVienna’s relief: that the crescents on the Turkish *flags inspired the croissant, that abandonedOttoman coffee was used to found the first Viennesecafé and to make the first cappuccino, and that thecaptured Turkish percussion instruments (cymbals,triangles and bass drums) were adopted by theAustrian regimental bands. The event’s truehistorical significance was far greater. For theOttoman Empire, this second failure to take Viennamarked the beginning of the end – a moment ofimperial overstretch with disastrous long-termconsequences. In battle after battle, culminating inPrince Eugene of Savoy’s crushing victory at Zentain 1697, the Ottomans were driven from nearly all theEuropean lands conquered by Suleiman theMagnificent. The Treaty of Karlowitz, under which theSultan renounced all claims to Hungary and
  • 159. 13Transylvania, was a humiliation. The raising of the siege of Vienna was not only aturning point in the centuries-old struggle betweenChristianity and Islam. It was also a pivotal momentin the rise of the West. In the field of battle, it is true,the two sides had seemed quite evenly matched in1683. Indeed, in many respects there was little tochoose between them. Tatars fought on both sides.Christian troops from Turkish-controlled Moldaviaand Wallachia were obliged to support theOttomans. The many paintings and engravings of thecampaign make it clear that the differences betweenthe two armies were sartorial more thantechnological or tactical. But the timing of the siegewas significant. For the late seventeenth century wasa time of accelerating change in Europe in twocrucial fields: natural philosophy (as science wasthen known) and political theory. The years after1683 saw profound changes in the way the Westernmind conceived of both nature and government. In1687 Isaac Newton published his Principia. Threeyears later, his friend John Locke published his
  • 160. Second Treatise of Government. If one thing cameto differentiate the West from the East it was thewidely differing degrees to which such new andprofound knowledge was systematically pursuedand applied. The long Ottoman retreat after 1683 was noteconomically determined. Istanbul was not a poorercity than its near neighbours in Central Europe, norwas the Ottoman Empire slower than many parts ofEurope to embrace global commerce and, later, 14industrialization. The explanation for the decline ofimperial China proposed in the previous chapterdoes not apply here; there was no shortage ofeconomic competition and autonomous corporate 15entities like guilds in the Ottoman lands. Therewas also ample competition between Ottomans,Safavids and Mughals. Nor should Ottoman declinebe understood simply as a consequence of growing 16Western military superiority. On closer inspection,that superiority was itself based on improvements inthe application of science to warfare and of
  • 161. rationality to government. In the fifteenth century, aswe saw earlier, political and economic competitionhad given the West a crucial advantage over China.By the eighteenth century, its edge over the Orientwas a matter as much of brainpower as of firepower.
  • 162. MICROGRAPHIAEurope’s path to the Scientific Revolution and theEnlightenment was very far from straight and narrow;rather, it was long and tortuous. It had its origins inthe fundamental Christian tenet that Church andstate should be separate. ‘Render therefore toCaesar the things that are Caesar’s; and unto Godthe things that are God’s’ (Matthew 22: 21) is aninjunction radically different from that in the Koran,which insists on the indivisibility of God’s law asrevealed to the Prophet and the unity of any powerstructure based on Islam. It was Christ’s distinctionbetween the temporal and the spiritual, adumbratedin the fifth century by St Augustine’s City of God (asopposed to the Roman Empire’s ‘City of Man’), thatenabled successive European rulers to resist thepolitical pretensions of the papacy in Rome; indeed,until the reassertion of papal power over theinvestiture (appointment) of the clergy by Gregory VII
  • 163. (1073–85), it was the secular authorities thatthreatened to turn the Pope into a puppet. Europe before 1500 was a vale of tears, but notof ignorance. Much classical learning wasrediscovered in the Renaissance, often thanks tocontact with the Muslim world. There were importantinnovations too. The twelfth century saw the birth ofpolyphony, a revolutionary breakthrough in thehistory of Western music. The central importance ofthe experimental method was proposed by RobertGrosseteste and seconded by Roger Bacon in thethirteenth century. In around 1413 FilippoBrunelleschi invented linear perspective in painting.The first true novel was the anonymous La vida deLazarillo de Tormes (1500). But a more decisivebreakthrough than the Renaissance was the adventof the Reformation and the ensuing fragmentation ofWestern Christianity after 1517. This was in largemeasure because of the revolutionary role of theprinting press, surely the single most importanttechnological innovation of the period before theIndustrial Revolution. As we have seen, the Chinese
  • 164. can claim to have invented printing with a press (seeChapter 1). But Gutenberg’s system of movablemetal type was more flexible and scalable thananything developed in China. As he said, ‘thewondrous agreement, proportion and harmony ofpunches and types’ allowed for the very rapidproduction of pamphlets and books. It was far toopowerful a technology to be monopolized (asGutenberg hoped it could be). Within just a fewyears of his initial breakthrough in Mainz, presseshad been established by imitators – notably theEnglishman William Caxton – in Cologne (1464),Basel (1466), Rome (1467), Venice (1469),Nuremberg, Utrecht, Paris (1470), Florence, Milan,Naples (1471), Augsburg (1472), Budapest, Lyon,Valencia (1473), Kraków, Bruges (1474), Lübeck,Breslau (1475), Westminster, Rostock (1476),Geneva, Palermo, Messina (1478), London (1480),Antwerp, Leipzig (1481), Odense (1482) and 17Stockholm (1483). Already by 1500 there wereover 200 printing shops in Germany alone. In 1518 atotal of 150 printed works were published in
  • 165. German, rising to 260 in 1519, to 570 in 1520 and to990 by 1524. No author benefited from this explosion ofpublication more than Martin Luther, not leastbecause he saw the potential of writing in thevernacular rather than in Latin. Beginning modestlywith the introduction to an edition of the TheologiaDeutsch and the Seven Penitential Psalms, he andthe Wittenberg printer Johann Grunenberg soonflooded the German market with religious tractscritical of the practices of the Roman CatholicChurch. Luther’s most famous broadside, the Ninety-Five Theses against the Church’s sale ofindulgences (as a form of penance for sin), wasinitially not published but nailed to the door of theWittenberg Castle Church. But it was not long before 18multiple copies of the theses appeared in print.Luther’s message was that ‘faith alone without worksjustifies, sets free, and saves’ and that all men were‘priests for ever … worthy to appear before God, topray for others, and to teach one another mutually 19the things which are of God’. This notion of an
  • 166. autodidact ‘priesthood of all believers’ was radical initself. But it was the printing press that made itviable, unlike Jan Hus’s earlier challenge to Papalpower, which had been ruthlessly crushed like allmedieval heresies. Within just a few years, Luther’spamphlets were available throughout Germany,despite the 1521 Edict of Worms ordering theirburning. Of the thirty sermons and other writingsLuther published between March 1517 and thesummer of 1520, about 370 editions were printed. Ifthe average size of an edition was a thousandcopies, then around a third of a million copies of hisworks were in circulation by the latter date. Between1521 and 1545, Luther alone was responsible for 20half of all pro-Reformation publications. Because of its emphasis on individual readingof scripture and ‘mutual teaching’, the new mediumtruly was the message of the Reformation. As withso many other aspects of Western ascendancy,however, commercial competition played a part.Luther himself complained that his publishers were‘sordid mercenaries’ who cared more ‘for their
  • 167. 21profits than for the public’. In fact, the economicbenefits of the printing press were spreadthroughout society. In the course of the sixteenthcentury, towns with printers grew much more rapidly 22than those without printers. Crucially, the printing press spread teachingother than Luther’s. The New Testament itself wasfirst printed in English in 1526 in Matthew Tyndale’stranslation, permitting literate laymen to read thescriptures for themselves. Religious conservativesmight denounce that ‘villainous Engine’, the printingpress, and look back nostalgically to ‘an happy timewhen all Learning was in Manuscript, and some little 23Officer … did keep the Keys of the Library’. Butthose days were gone for ever. As Henry VIII’sminister Thomas More was quick to grasp, eventhose who opposed the Reformation had no optionbut to join battle in print. The only way of limiting thespread throughout Scotland and England of theCalvinists’ Geneva Bible (1560) was for King JamesVI and I to commission an alternative ‘authorized’
  • 168. version, the third and most successful attempt to *produce an official English translation. Alsounlocked and spread by the printing press were theworks of ancient philosophers, notably Aristotle,w h o s e De anima was published in moderntranslation in 1509, as well as pre-Reformationhumanists like Nicolaus Marschalk and GeorgeSibutus. Already by 1500 more than a thousandscientific and mathematical works had appeared inprint, among them Lucretius’ De natura rerum,which had been rediscovered in 1417, Celsus’ Dere medica, a Roman compilation of Greek medicalscience, and Latin versions of the works of 24Archimedes. Italian printers played an especiallyimportant role in disseminating commercially usefularithmetical and accounting techniques in works likeTreviso Arithmetic (1478) and Luca Pacioli’sSumma de arithmetica, geometria, proportioni etproportionalita (1494). Perhaps most remarkably, at a time when anti-Turkish pamphlets were almost as popular as anti-
  • 169. 25Popish tracts in Germany, the Koran wastranslated into Latin and published in Basel by theprinter Johannes Oporinus. When, in 1542, theBasel city council banned the translation and seizedthe available copies, Luther himself wrote inOporinus’ defence: It has struck me that one is able to do nothing more grievous to Muhammad or the Turks, nor more to bring them to harm (more than with all weaponry) than to bring their Koran to Christians in the light of day, that they may see therein, how entirely cursed, abominable, and desperate a book it is, full of lies, fables and abominations that the Turks conceal and gloss over … to honour Christ, to do good for Christians, to harm the Turks, to vex the devil, set this book free and don’t withhold it … One must 26 open sores and wounds in order to heal them.Three editions were duly published in 1543, followedby a further edition seven years later. Nothing couldbetter illustrate the opening of the European mindthat followed the Reformation.
  • 170. Of course, not everything that is published addsto the sum of human knowledge. Much of what cameoff the printing presses in the sixteenth andseventeenth centuries was distinctly destructive, likethe twenty-nine editions of Malleus maleficarum thatappeared between 1487 and 1669, legitimizing thepersecution of witches, a pan-European mania thatkilled between 12,000 and 45,000 people, mostly 27women. To the audiences who watchedChristopher Marlowe’s Doctor Faustus, firstperformed in 1592, the idea that a German scholarmight sell his soul to Satan in return for twenty-fouryears of boundless power and pleasure was entirelycredible: By him I’ll be great emperor of the world, And make a bridge through the moving air, To pass the ocean with a band of men; I’ll join the hills that bind the Afric shore, And make that country continent to Spain, And both contributory to my crown: The Emperor shall not live but by my leave
  • 171. …Yet, just seventy years later, Thomas Hooke couldpublish his Micrographia (1665), a triumphantcelebration of scientific empiricism: By the means of Telescopes , there is nothing so far distant but may be represented to our view; and by the help of Microscopes, there is nothing so small, as to escape our inquiry; hence there is a new visible World discovered to the understanding. By this means the Heavens are open’d, and a vast number of new Stars, and new Motions, and new Productions appear in them, to which all the ancient Astronomers were utterly Strangers. By this the Earth it self, which lyes so neer us, under our feet, shews quite a new thing to us … We may perhaps be inabled to discern all the secret workings of Nature. What may not be therefore expected from it if thoroughly prosecuted? Talking and contention of Arguments would soon be turn’d into labours; all the fine dreams of Opinions, and universal metaphysical natures, which the luxury of subtil Brains has devis’d, would quickly vanish, and give place to solid Histories, Experiments and Works. And as at first, mankind fell by tasting of the forbidden Tree of Knowledge, so we, their Posterity,
  • 172. may be in part restor’d by the same way, not only by beholding and contemplating, but by tasting too those fruits of Natural knowledge, that were never yet forbidden. From hence the World may be assisted with variety of Inventions, new matter for Sciences may be collected, the old improv’d, and their rust rubb’d away …Hooke’s use of the term ‘cell’ for a microscopic unitof organic matter was one of a host of conceptualbreakthroughs, crowded together astonishingly inboth time and space, that fundamentally redefinedhumanity’s understanding of the natural world. The Scientific Revolution may be said to havebegun with almost simultaneous advances in thestudy of planetary motion and blood circulation. ButHooke’s microscope took science to a new frontierby revealing what had hitherto been invisible to thehuman eye. Micrographia was a manifesto for thenew empiricism, a world away from Faustus’sorcery. However, the new science was about morethan just accurate observation. Beginning withGalileo, it was about systematic experimentation
  • 173. and the identification of mathematical relationships.The possibilities of mathematics were in turnexpanded when Isaac Newton and Gottfried Leibnizintroduced, respectively, infinitesimal and differentialcalculus. Finally, the Scientific Revolution was also arevolution in philosophy as René Descartes andBaruch Spinoza overthrew traditional theories aboutboth perception and reason. Without exaggeration,this cascade of intellectual innovation may be said tohave given birth to modern anatomy, astronomy,biology, chemistry, geology, geometry, mathematics,mechanics and physics. Its character is bestillustrated by a list of just the most important twenty-nine breakthroughs of the period from 1530 to *1789.1530 Paracelsus pioneers the application of chemistry to physiology and pathology Nicolaus Copernicus’ De revolutionibus orbium coelestium
  • 174. states the heliocentric theory of the1543 solar system Andreas Vesalius’ De humani corporis fabrica supplants Galen’s anatomical textbook Agricola’s De natura fossilium1546 classifies minerals and introduces the term ‘fossil’1572 Tycho Brahe records the first European observation of a supernova Galileo’s tests of falling bodies1589 (published in De motu) revolutionize the experimental method William Gilbert’s De magnete,1600 magnetisque corporibus describes the magnetic properties of the earth and
  • 175. electricity Galileo discovers that a free-falling1604 body increases its distance as the square of the time Hans Lippershey and Zacharias1608 Jansen independently invent the telescope 1609 Galileo conducts the first1609 telescopic observations of the night sky Galileo discovers four of Jupiter’s1610 moons and infers that the earth is not at the centre of the universe John Napier’s Mirifici logarithmorum1614 canonis descriptio introduces logarithms
  • 176. William Harvey writes Exercitatio1628 anatomica de motu cordis et sanguinis in animalibus, accurately describing the circulation of blood René Descartes’ ‘La Géométrie’, an1637 appendix to his Discours de la méthode, founds analytic geometry Galileo’s Discorsi e dimonstrazioni1638 matematiche founds modern mechanics1640 Pierre de Fermat founds number theory1654 Fermat and Blaise Pascal found probability theory Robert Boyle’s Skeptical Chymist
  • 177. 1661 defines elements and chemical analysis Boyle states Boyle’s Law that the1662 volume occupied by a fixed mass of gas in a container is inversely proportional to the pressure it exerts Isaac Newton’s De analysi per aequationes numero terminorum1669 infinitas presents the first systematic account of the calculus, independently developed by Gottfried Leibniz1676 Antoni van Leeuwenhoek discovers micro-organisms Newton’s Philosophiae naturalis1687 principia mathematica states the law of universal gravitation and the laws of motion
  • 178. Carolus Linnaeus’ Systema naturae1735 introduces systematic classification of genera and species of organisms Daniel Bernoulli’s Hydrodynamica1738 states Bernoulli’s Principle and founds the mathematical study of fluid flow and the kinetic theory of gases1746 Jean-Etienne Guettard prepares the first true geological maps1755 Joseph Black identifies carbon dioxide1775 Antoine Lavoisier accurately describes combustion James Hutton’s ‘Concerning the1785 System of the Earth’ states the uniformitarian view of the earth’s
  • 179. development Lavoisier’s Traité élémentaire de1789 chimie states the law of conservation of matter By the mid-1600s this kind of scientificknowledge was spreading as rapidly as had thedoctrine of the Protestant Reformers a centurybefore. The printing press and increasingly reliablepostal services combined to create an extraordinarynetwork, small by modern standards, but morepowerful than anything previously achieved by acommunity of scholars. There was of course a greatdeal of intellectual resistance, as is always the casewhen the paradigm – the conceptual framework 28itself – shifts. Indeed, some of this resistancecame from within. Newton himself dabbled inalchemy. Hooke all but killed himself with quackremedies for indigestion. It was by no means easyfor such men to reconcile the new science with
  • 180. Christian doctrine, which few were ready to 29renounce. But it remains undeniable that this wasan intellectual revolution even more transformativethan the religious revolution that preceded andunintentionally begat it. The ground rules of scientificresearch – including the dissemination of findingsand the assigning of credit to the first into print –were laid. ‘Your first letter [paper] baptised me in theNewtonian religion,’ wrote the young Frenchphilosopher and wit François-Marie Arouet (betterknown by his pen-name Voltaire) to Pierre-LouisMoreau de Maupertuis following the publication ofthe latter’s Discourse on the Different Figures of thePlanets in 1732, ‘and your second gave me 30confirmation. I thank you for your sacraments.’ Thiswas irony; yet it also acknowledged the revelatorynature of the new science.Those who decry ‘Eurocentrism’ as if it were somedistasteful prejudice have a problem: the ScientificRevolution was, by any scientific measure, whollyEurocentric. An astonishingly high proportion of thekey figures – around 80 per cent – originated in a
  • 181. hexagon bounded by Glasgow, Copenhagen,Kraków, Naples, Marseille and Plymouth, and nearlyall the rest were born within a hundred miles of that 31area. In marked contrast, Ottoman scientificprogress was non-existent in this same period. Thebest explanation for this divergence was theunlimited sovereignty of religion in the Muslim world.Towards the end of the eleventh century, influentialIslamic clerics began to argue that the study ofGreek philosophy was incompatible with the 32teachings of the Koran. Indeed, it wasblasphemous to suggest that man might be able todiscern the divine mode of operation, which Godmight in any case vary at will. In the words of AbuHamid al-Ghazali, author of The Incoherence of thePhilosophers, ‘It is rare that someone becomesabsorbed in this [foreign] science without renouncing 33religion and letting go the reins of piety within him.’Under clerical influence, the study of ancientphilosophy was curtailed, books burned and so-called freethinkers persecuted; increasingly, themadrasas became focused exclusively on theology
  • 182. at a time when European universities were 34broadening the scope of their scholarship.Printing, too, was resisted in the Muslim world. Forthe Ottomans, script was sacred: there was areligious reverence for the pen, a preference for theart of calligraphy over the business of printing.‘Scholar’s ink’, it was said, ‘is holier than martyr’s 35blood.’ In 1515 a decree of Sultan Selim I hadthreatened with death anyone found using the 36printing press. This failure to reconcile Islam withscientific progress was to prove disastrous. Havingonce provided European scholars with ideas andinspiration, Muslim scientists were now cut off fromthe latest research. If the Scientific Revolution wasgenerated by a network, then the Ottoman Empirewas effectively offline. The only Western booktranslated into a Middle Eastern language until thelate eighteenth century was a medical book on the 37treatment of syphilis. Nothing better illustrates this divergence than thefate of the observatory built in Istanbul in the 1570s
  • 183. for the renowned polymath Takiyüddīn al-Rāsid (Taqial-Din). Born in Syria in 1521 and educated inDamascus and Cairo, Takiyüddīn was a giftedscientist, the author of numerous treatises onastronomy, mathematics and optics. He designedhis own highly accurate astronomical clocks andeven experimented with steam power. In the mid-1570s, as chief astronomer to the Sultan, hesuccessfully lobbied for the construction of anobservatory. By all accounts the Darü’r-Rasadü’l-Cedid (House of the New Observations) was asophisticated facility, on a par with the Dane TychoBrahe’s more famous observatory, Uraniborg. Buton 11 September 1577 the sighting of a comet overIstanbul prompted demands for astrologicalinterpretation. Unwisely, according to someaccounts, Takiyüddīn interpreted it as a harbinger ofa coming Ottoman military victory. But Sheikh ul-Islam Kadizade, the most senior cleric of the time,persuaded the Sultan that Takiyüddīn’s prying intosecrets of the heavens was as blasphemous as theplanetary tables of the Samarkand astronomerUlugh Beg, who had supposedly been beheaded for
  • 184. similar temerity. In January 1580, barely five yearsafter its completion, the Sultan ordered the 38demolition of Takiyüddīn’s observatory. Therewould not be another observatory in Istanbul until1868. By such methods, the Muslim clergy effectivelysnuffed out the chance of Ottoman scientificadvance – at the very moment that the ChristianChurches of Europe were relaxing their grip on freeinquiry. European advances were dismissed in 39Istanbul as mere ‘vanities’. The legacy of Islam’sonce celebrated House of Wisdom vanished in acloud of piety. As late as the early nineteenthcentury, Hüseyin Rıfkı Tamani, the head teacher atthe Mühendishane-i Cedide, could still be heardexplaining to students: ‘The universe in appearanceis a sphere and its centre is the Earth … The Sunand Moon rotate around the globe and move about 40the signs of the zodiac.’By the second half of the seventeenth century, whilethe heirs of Osman slumbered, rulers all acrossEurope were actively promoting science, largely
  • 185. regardless of clerical qualms. In July 1662, two yearsafter its initial foundation at Gresham College, theRoyal Society of London for Improving NaturalKnowledge received its royal charter from KingCharles II. The aim was to found an institution ‘for thepromoting of physico-mathematical experimentallearning’. Significantly, in the words of the Society’sfirst historian, the founders: freely admitted Men of different Religions, Countries, and Profession of Life. This they were oblig’d to do, or else they would come far short of the largeness of their own Declarations. For they openly profess, not to lay the Foundation of an English, Scotch, Irish, Popish or Protestant Philosophy; but a Philosophy of Mankind … By their naturalizing Men of all Countries, they have laid the beginnings of many great advantages for the future. For by this means, they will be able to settle a constant Intelligence, throughout all civil Nations; and make the Royal Society the general Banck and Free-port of the 41 World.Four years later, the Académie Royale desSciences was set up in Paris, initially as a
  • 186. 42pioneering centre for cartography. These becamethe models for similar institutions all over Europe.Among the Royal Society’s founders wasChristopher Wren – architect, mathematician,scientist and astronomer. When, in 1675, Charles IIcommissioned Wren to design his RoyalObservatory in Greenwich, he certainly did notexpect him to predict the outcomes of battles. Realscience, the King well understood, was in thenational interest. What made the Royal Society so important wasnot so much royal patronage as the fact that it waspart of a new kind of scientific community, whichallowed ideas to be shared and problems to beaddressed collectively through a process of opencompetition. The classic example is the law ofgravity, which Newton could not have formulatedwithout the earlier efforts of Hooke. In effect, theSociety – of which Newton became president in1703 – was a hub in the new scientific network. Thisis not to suggest that modern science was or iswholly collaborative. Then, as now, individual
  • 187. scientists were actuated by ambition as much as byaltruism. But because of the imperative to publishnew findings, scientific knowledge could growcumulatively – albeit sometimes acrimoniously.Newton and Hooke quarrelled bitterly over who hadfirst identified the inverse-square law of gravity or the 43true nature of light. Newton had an equally nastyargument with Leibniz, who dismissed gravity as 44having ‘an occult quality’. There was indeed animportant intellectual fault-line here, between themetaphysical thought of the continent and theempirical practice of the British Isles. It was alwaysmore likely that the latter, with its distinctive culture ofexperimental tinkering and patient observation,would produce the technological advances withoutwhich there could have been no Industrial Revolution 45(see Chapter 5). The line that led from Newton’slaws to Thomas Newcomen’s steam engine – firstused to drain the Whitehaven collieries in 1715 –was remarkably short and straight, thoughNewcomen was but a humble Dartmouth
  • 188. 46ironmonger. It is not accidental that three of theworld’s most important technological innovations –James Watt’s improved steam engine (1764), JohnHarrison’s longitude-finding chronometer (1761) andRichard Arkwright’s water frame (1769) – wereinvented in the same country, in the same decade. When Newton died in March 1727 his body layin state for four days at Westminster Abbey, beforea funeral service in which his coffin was borne by twodukes, three earls and the Lord Chancellor. Theservice was watched by Voltaire, who wasastonished at the veneration accorded to a scientistof low birth. ‘I have seen’, the famous philosophewrote on his return to France, ‘a professor ofmathematics, only because he was great in hisvocation, buried like a king who had done well by hissubjects.’ In the West, science and government hadgone into partnership. And no monarch would betterexemplify the benefits of that partnership thanVoltaire’s friend Frederick the Great of Prussia.
  • 189. OSMAN AND FRITZSeventy years after the siege of Vienna, two menpersonified the widening gap between Westerncivilization and its Muslim rival in the Near East. InIstanbul Sultan Osman III presided indolently over adecadent Ottoman Empire, while in PotsdamFrederick the Great enacted reforms that made theKingdom of Prussia a byword for military efficiencyand administrative rationality. Viewed from afar, the Ottoman Empire stillseemed as impressive an autocracy as it had beenin the days of Suleiman the Magnificent. In truth, fromthe mid-seventeenth century onwards, the empirewas afflicted by acute structural problems. Therewas a severe fiscal crisis as expenditure ran aheadof tax revenue, and a monetary crisis as inflation,imported from the New World and worsened bydebasement of the coinage, drove up prices (as 47also happened in Europe). Under the vizierate ofMehmed Köprülü, his son Ahmed and his ill-fatedfoster-son Kara Mustafa, it was a constant struggleto cover the expenses of the Sultan’s huge court, torestrain the Janissaries, the once celibate Ottomaninfantry who had become a kind of hereditary casteand a law unto themselves, and to control the moreremote imperial provinces. Corruption was rife.Centrifugal forces were strengthening. The power of
  • 190. Centrifugal forces were strengthening. The power ofthe landowning class, the sipahi, was in decline.Insurgents like the celali in Anatolia werechallenging central authority. There was religiousconflict, too, between orthodox clerics like KadızâdeMehmed, who attributed all Ottoman reverses to 48deviations from the word of the Prophet, and Sufi 49mystics like Sivasi Efendi. The Ottomanbureaucracy had formerly been staffed by slaves(under the system of devşirme), often taken ascaptives from Christian communities in the Balkans.But now selection and promotion seemed to dependmore on bribery and favouritism than on aptitude; therate of churn became absurdly high as people 50jostled for the perquisites of office. Thedeterioration in administrative standards can betraced today in Ottoman government records. Thecensus of 1458 is a meticulous document, forexample. By 1694 the equivalent records hadbecome hopelessly sloppy, with abbreviations and 51crossings out. Ottoman officials were well awareof the deterioration, but the only remedy they couldrecommend was a return to the good old days of 52Suleiman the Magnificent. But perhaps the most serious problem was thedecline in the quality of the sultans themselves.Turnover at the top was high; there were nine sultansbetween 1566, when Suleiman the Magnificent died,and 1648, when Mehmed IV succeeded to thethrone. Of these, five were deposed and two
  • 191. assassinated. Polygamy meant that Ottoman sultansdid not have the difficulties of Christian monarchslike Henry VIII, whose struggle to produce a maleheir required no fewer than six wives, two of whomhe executed, two of whom he divorced. In Istanbul, itwas being one of the sultan’s usually numerous sonsthat was dangerous. Only one of them couldsucceed as sultan and, until 1607, the others wereinvariably strangled as an insurance againstchallenges to the succession. This was hardly arecipe for filial love. The fate of Suleiman’s talentedeldest son, Mustafa, was not entirely untypical. Hewas murdered in his father’s own tent as a result ofsuccessful intrigues by the Sultan’s second wife, hisstepmother, on behalf of her own sons. Another son,Bayezid, was also strangled. At the accession ofMehmed III in 1597 nineteen of his brothers were putto death. After 1607 this practice was abandoned infavour of the rule of primogeniture. Henceforth, theyounger sons were merely confined to the harem –literally ‘the forbidden’ – inhabited by the sultan’s 53wives, concubines and offspring. To describe the atmosphere in the harem asunhealthy would be an understatement. Osman IIIbecame sultan at the age of fifty-seven, having spentthe previous fifty-one years effectively as a prisonerin the harem. By the time he emerged, almost whollyignorant of the realm he was supposed to rule, hehad developed such a loathing for women that hetook to wearing iron-soled shoes. On hearing his
  • 192. clunking footsteps, the ladies of the harem wereexpected to scurry out of sight. Half a century ofdodging concubines was hardly the best preparationfor power. Royal life was very different in the landsthat lay to the north of the Balkans.‘The ruler is the first person of the state,’ wroteFrederick the Great in 1752, in the first of twoPolitical Testaments written for posterity. ‘He is paidwell so that he can maintain the dignity of his office.But he is required in return to work effectively for the 54well-being of the state.’ Very similar sentimentshad been expressed a century earlier by his great-grandfather the Elector Frederick William, whoseachievement it was to turn the Mark of Brandenburgfrom a war-ravaged wasteland into the core of themost tightly run state in Central Europe, its financesbased on the efficient administration of the extensiveroyal domain, its social order based on alandowning class that loyally served atop horses orbehind desks, its security based on a well-drilledpeasant army. By the time his son wasacknowledged as ‘King in Prussia’ in 1701,Frederick William’s realm was the closestapproximation in existence to the ideal absolutemonarchy recommended by the English politicaltheorist Thomas Hobbes as the antidote to anarchy.It was a young and lean Leviathan. The contrast with the Ottoman system wasexemplified by Frederick the Great’s favourite royalresidence at Potsdam. Designed by the King
  • 193. himself, it was more a villa than a palace and thoughhe called it Sanssouci – ‘Carefree’ – its royal masterwas anything but free of care. ‘I can have nointerests’, he declared, ‘which are not equally thoseof my people. If the two are incompatible, thepreference is always to be given to the welfare andadvantage of the country.’ The simple design of Sanssouci served as anexample to the entire Prussian bureaucracy. Strictself-discipline, iron routine and snow-whiteincorruptibility were to be their watchwords.Frederick maintained only a small retinue of staff atSanssouci: six running footmen, five regular footmenand two pages, but no valet owing to the simplicity ofhis wardrobe, almost invariably a threadbare militaryuniform, stained with snuff. In Frederick’s opinion,regal robes had no practical purpose, and a crown 55was merely ‘a hat that let the rain in’. Incomparison with his counterpart in the TopkapıPalace, he lived like a monk. Instead of a harem, hehad a wife (Elisabeth Christine of Brunswick) whomhe detested. ‘Madam has grown fatter,’ was how he 56greeted her after one of many lengthy separations.The contrast is there in the written record too. Theminutes of the Prussian Royal Cabinet – page afterpage of crisply recorded royal decisions – are theantithesis of eighteenth-century Ottoman documents. The poet Lord Byron once wrote to a friend: ‘InEngland, the vices in fashion are whoring anddrinking, in Turkey sodomy and smoking, we prefer
  • 194. a girl and bottle, they a pipe and pathic [catamite]…’ Ironically, Frederick the Great, the pioneer ofenlightened absolutism, might well have beenhappier in the Ottoman court as a young man. Ahighly sensitive and probably homosexualintellectual, he endured an austere, and at timessadistic, schooling under the direction of hisirascible, parade-loving father, Frederick William I. While Frederick William unwound with boorishdrinking companions at his ‘Tobacco Ministry’, hisson sought solace in history, music and philosophy.To his martinet of a father, he was ‘an effeminateboy, who is without a single manly inclination, whocannot ride nor shoot, and who, into the bargain, isdirty in his person, never has his hair cut, and curls it 57like an idiot’. When Frederick was caughtattempting to flee Prussia, his father had himimprisoned in Küstrin Castle and forced him towatch the beheading of the friend who had helpedplan the escape, Hans Hermann von Katte. Hisfriend’s body and severed head were left lying on the 58ground outside the Crown Prince’s cell. Heremained in captivity at Küstrin for two years. Yet Frederick could not afford to repudiate hisfather’s passion for the Prussian army. As colonel ofthe Goltz Regiment (following his release fromprison), he sought to hone his military skills. Thesewere to prove indispensable as he strove tocompensate for Prussia’s vulnerable geographicalposition, stretched as it was almost diagonally
  • 195. across Central Europe. In the course of his reign,Frederick increased the size of the army heinherited from 80,000 to 195,000 men, making itEurope’s third largest. Indeed, with one soldier forevery twenty-nine subjects, Prussia was in relativeterms the most militarized country in the world by the 59end of Frederick’s reign in 1786. And, unlike hisfather, Frederick was prepared to deploy his armybeyond the parade ground in pursuit of new territory.Within months of his accession in 1740, he stunnedthe continent by invading and seizing the wealthyprovince of Silesia from Austria. The sensitiveaesthete who had once struggled to remain in thesaddle and who preferred the sound of the flute tothe click of heels had emerged as an artist in theexercise of power: der alte Fritz. How can one explain this transformation? Oneclue lies in Frederick’s early work of politicalphilosophy, The Anti-Machiavel, one of a number ofroyal refutations of the Florentine NiccolòMachiavelli’s notoriously cynical user’s manual forrulers, The Prince. In his version, Frederick defendsthe right of a monarch to wage preventive war ‘whenthe excessive greatness of the greatest powers ofEurope seems about to overflow its banks andengulf the world’, in other words to maintain thebalance of power, ‘that wise equilibrium by which thesuperior force of some sovereigns iscounterbalanced by the united forces of otherpowers’: ‘It is … better to engage in an offensive war
  • 196. when one is free to opt between the olive branch andthe laurel wreath than to wait until those desperatetimes when a declaration of war can only 60momentarily postpone slavery and ruin.’ Fredericklater described neighbouring Poland as ‘anartichoke, ready to be consumed leaf by leaf’ – andconsumed it duly was when the country was 61partitioned between Austria, Prussia and Russia.Frederick’s seizure of Silesia was thus no spur-of-the-moment affair. Prussia’s expansion was to belike a mirror image of Ottoman contraction: theachievement of a new kind of power based onruthless rationalism.Frederick William I had hoarded money, squeezingevery penny out of his extensive Crown lands, andbequeathing his heir a chest of 8 million thalers. Hisson was determined to put his treasure to use, notonly to enlarge his domain but also to give it acapital worthy of a first-ranking kingdom. One of thefirst grand edifices in what he intended to be asplendid forum in the heart of Berlin was the StateOpera. Next to it he built the magnificent StHedwig’s Cathedral. In the eyes of the incuriousmodern tourist, these are little different from theopera houses and cathedrals to be seen in otherEuropean capitals. But they repay closer scrutiny.Unusually in northern Europe, the Berlin State OperaHouse was never connected to a royal palace. Itexisted not for the monarch’s personal pleasure butfor the enjoyment of a wider public. Frederick’s
  • 197. cathedral, too, was unusual, as it was a Catholicchurch in a Lutheran city – built by an agnostic king,not grudgingly at the margins, but at the heart of thecity’s grandest square. The portico of the cathedralis consciously modelled on the Pantheon – the 62temple to all the gods – of ancient Rome. Itremains as a monument to Frederick the Great’sreligious tolerance. The liberalism of the decrees issued atFrederick’s accession is startling even today: notonly complete religious toleration but alsounrestricted press freedom and openness toimmigrants. In 1700 almost one in every fiveBerliners was, in fact, a French Huguenot, living in aFrench ‘colony’. There were also SalzburgProtestants, Waldensians, Mennonites, ScottishPresbyterians, Jews, Catholics and avowedreligious sceptics. ‘Here everyone can seeksalvation in the manner that seems best to him,’ 63declared Frederick, including even Muslims. True,Jews and Christians were tolerated in the OttomanEmpire, in the sense that they could live there. Buttheir status was closer to that of the Jews inmedieval Europe – confined to specified areas and 64occupations, and taxed at higher rates. Invigorated by the combination of freedom andforeigners, Prussia experienced a cultural boommarked by the founding of new reading societies,discussion groups, bookshops, journals and
  • 198. scientific societies. Though he himself professed todespise the language, preferring to write in Frenchand speak German only to his horse, Frederick’sreign saw a surge of new publications in German. Itwas under his rule that Immanuel Kant emerged asperhaps the greatest philosopher of the eighteenthcentury, his Critique of Pure Reason (1781) probingthe very nature and limitations of human rationalityitself. Living and working throughout his life at theAlbertina University at Königsberg, Kant was aneven more austere figure than his king, taking hisdaily walk so punctually that locals set their watchesby him. It mattered not one whit to Frederick that thegreat thinker was the grandson of a Scottish saddle-maker. What mattered was the quality of his mindrather than his birth. Nor did it bother Frederick thatone of Kant’s intellectual near-equals, MosesMendelssohn, was a Jew. Christianity, the Kingremarked sardonically, was ‘stuffed with miracles,contradictions and absurdities, was spawned in thefevered imaginations of the Orientals and thenspread to our Europe, where some fanaticsespoused it, some intriguers pretended to beconvinced by it and some imbeciles actually 65believed it’. Here was the very essence of that movement weknow as the Enlightenment, which was in many –though not all – ways an extension of the ScientificRevolution. The differences were twofold. First, thecircle of philosophes was wider. What was
  • 199. happening in Prussia was happening all overEurope: publishers of books, magazines andnewspapers were supplying an enlarged market,thanks to a significant improvement in literacy rates.In France the proportion of men able to sign theirown name – a good enough proxy for literacy – rosefrom 29 per cent in the 1680s to 47 per cent in the1780s, though the rates for women (from 14 per centto 27 per cent) remained markedly lower. In Paris by1789 male literacy was around 90 per cent, femaleliteracy 80 per cent. Competition betweenProtestant and Catholic institutions as well asincreased state provision, high rates of urbanizationand improved transportation – all these thingstogether made Europeans better able to read. Norwas the Enlightenment transmitted purely throughreading. The public sphere of the eighteenth centuryalso consisted of subscription concerts (likeWolfgang Amadeus Mozart’s in Vienna in 1784),new public theatres and art exhibitions, to saynothing of a complex web of cultural societies andfraternities like the Freemasonic Lodges thatproliferated at this time. ‘I write as a citizen of theworld,’ enthused the German poet and playwrightFriedrich Schiller in 1784: The public now is everything to me – my preoccupation, my sovereign and my friend. Henceforth I belong to it alone. I wish to place myself before this tribunal and no other. It is the only thing I fear and respect. A feeling of greatness comes over me with the idea that the only fetter I wear is the verdict of the world – and that the only throne I shall
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