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What is Prediction? From Sports to Workplace Safety
 

What is Prediction? From Sports to Workplace Safety

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Prediction has played a big role in athletics and beyond, but how about workplace safety? With technological advances and new software, predicting and preventing workplace accidents is now attainable ...

Prediction has played a big role in athletics and beyond, but how about workplace safety? With technological advances and new software, predicting and preventing workplace accidents is now attainable with Predictive Solutions.

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  • Make a few bucks? How about we make our workplaces safer? <br />
  • Watson often uses Language and Free Text. Boston Medical Diagnoses. <br />
  • What we do today, and what we envision for the future. Different types of data: (USS) Free Text. (Gilbayne) Worker Density. (MAU) Tenure. (GE) Pre-Hire Information. (Target) Economic and Demographic. (DuPont) Training and Turnover <br />
  • BNSF, Rhoades’ “Let me find you a checklist” story, Duke University <br />
  • The Boss Doesn’t really want a report. He wants answers. Use analytics to get answers from numbers. <br />
  • ALWAYS LOOK AHEAD!!! Use the Karn Numbers on the Whiteboard: 81,000,000 observations, 11,000 (users/inspections/projects or work units); 260 (customers); 5 (Carnegie Mellon PhDs studying the analytics) 3 (seconds per new observations); 2.3 (at-risks per inspections); 1 (system has it all) Dr. Chuck can help you get started!!! <br />
  • Global Co. a location had gone NINE YEARS without a recordable injury (“This solution won’t help us. We’ve always been safe.”) Last injury was Feb. 26, 2004. We red-flagged them in the beginning of Feb 2013. On Feb 27, they had a recordable. <br />
  • ALWAYS LOOK AHEAD!!! For us, that means <br />
  • How we fit in the ISC Family <br />
  • Its why we all do what we do! <br />

What is Prediction? From Sports to Workplace Safety What is Prediction? From Sports to Workplace Safety Presentation Transcript

  • What IS Prediction? From Oracles to Athletics—and Beyond -Preparation, Profitability, Prevention
  • A Quick Contest
  • A Brief Bit About Prediction
  • Oracles and Entrails? • Many Different Divinations to Quench Man’s Hunger for Knowledge about the Future
  • The Legend of Tuffy • Hit Three Home Runs on Opening Day • Cubs’ fans had visions of a World Series Championship dancing in their heads
  • They Went Wild for Tuffy • Fans and Reporters ate it all up! • Experts say, “Tuffy to hit 486 dingers this year!” • Fans say, “We should buy our playoff tickets today!”
  • Well, What Happened? • Hit 3 more home runs all year • Hit a total of 12 MLB Home runs • Ended his career in the Nippon Leagues
  • UNSINKABLE
  • On Second Thought…
  • Sport of Kings
  • That’s a LOT of Data His Father was a Mudder, but his Mother Ate too Much Fodder
  • Eureka!!!
  • What Happened!?!
  • A Super-Genius Can’t Fail
  • Shhhh! Smell That!?!
  • Prediction? REALLY?
  • Ummm…..No, Thanks.
  • Bertram Forer’s Test • You have a great need for other people to like and admire you. You have a tendency to be critical of yourself. You have a great deal of unused capacity which you have not turned to your advantage. While you have some personality weaknesses, you are generally able to compensate for them. Your sexual adjustment has presented problems for you. Disciplined and self-controlled outside, you tend to be worrisome and insecure inside. At times you have serious doubts as to whether you have made the right decision or done the right thing. You prefer a certain amount of change and variety and become dissatisfied when hemmed in by restrictions and limitations. You pride yourself as an independent thinker and do not accept others' statements without satisfactory proof. You have found it unwise to be too frank in revealing yourself to others. At times you are extroverted, affable, sociable, while at other times you are introverted, wary, reserved. Some of your aspirations tend to be pretty unrealistic. Security is one of your major goals in life. • 80% “Accurate”
  • Real Predictive Analytics
  • Big Banks and Big Data
  • Nate Silver
  • Watson
  • New Security “Pre-Checked” List HJCFF7/TSA PRECHK
  • Prediction? ABSOLUTELY!!! 85-87 % Accurate—Even the Local Guys!
  • Numbers, Numbers, Everywhere 2.5 quintillion* bytes of data are created daily. 90% of data in the world today has been created in the last two years. *25,000,000,000,000,000,000
  • TONS of Data Today: •Audits •Inspections •Observations Tomorrow •Gas •Telemetry •ALSS •Near-Miss Photos and Free Text
  • Leading Indicator • Any Event, Behavior, Hazard or Condition that happens BEFORE someone gets hurt.
  • The Old Way
  • What do you DO with It All? “The boss needs that safety report by 3:00. I told him you can have it for him by 1:00”
  • The Better Way to Use Your Data • Turn “data” into ‘Information” • Turn “Numbers into “Answers” • Any Answers for Anyone • Anytime • Automatically
  • Use Leading Indicator Data to Get Healthier—Always Look Ahead to Predict and Prevent • Automate • Anticipate • Analyze • ACT
  • Watson
  • Research Partnership
  • Holmes
  • SafetyNet Aggregate Database for Predictive Analytics and Modeling – Database info: • 130 million total observations (growing at about 1.7 million per month) • 2.5 million inspections • Over 31,000 total unique observers/inspectors • Approx 10,000 worksites entered data in 2012… similar numbers over the last three years (total unique worksites is over 15,000) • Nearly 4,000 data synchs with app each month
  • Safety Truths 1. Number of Observations 2. Number of Non-Safety Observers 3. Number of “All-Safe” Inspections 4. Number of Still Open Issues
  • An Event Predicted by the Model
  • Use Leading Indicator Data to Stay Healthy—Use SafetyNet to Predict and Prevent • Model is 80% - 97% Accurate • R-squared correlation measurement of .75 • Predict with Holmes • Prevent injuries
  • Always Look Ahead!!! • New Delivery Systems • New Data Streams • New Models – BBS – Conditions – SQP – Environmental – Industries
  • Learn More After the Break • Attend the “Red Flag” Session in Grand Ballroom B Presented by John Mavros
  • RESULTS
  • More Data Could Have Helped • Dan thinks he is Funny • Dan works for PSC • PSC is owned by ISC • ISC makes Gas Monitors • Dan is CHEAP • Actual Gas Monitors are a bit outside Dan’s Budget for Presentations • You’ve seen Dan present before
  • Shameless Sales Guy Request • Anyone We Can Help? • Send email with names and numbers to: – Piper Major – pmajor@predictivesolutions
  • ISC/Predictive Solutions • ISC Vision: To eliminate death in the workplace this century • Predictive Solutions Vision: We save lives by predicting workplace injuries
  • So Everyone Can Go Home Safe, Every Day