Ageing global population and its consequences
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Ageing global population and its consequences

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How an aging workforce will impact global economies in 2045..

How an aging workforce will impact global economies in 2045..

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Ageing global population and its consequences Ageing global population and its consequences Document Transcript

  • Our ageing world RBS economist Stephen Blackman examines the impact of a smaller workforce Societies are getting older. Workforces are shrinking or growing less quickly as a proportion of the population... Growth slows With no productivity boost, economic growth may stall in most developed countries ...but does worker pay rise? A labour shortage gives workers a stronger hand in pay talks. At best, this may ease downward pressure on pay Balance sheets shift Demand for mortgages and loans weakens. Fewer workers = fewer deposits. Savings drawn down Stocks sold Older investors sell shares in favour of fixed income Services strained Fewer workers support more retirees. Welfare systems are strained Migration Germany, the UK, Spain Italy and France alone would need c.92 million migrants to fill the worker gap Female participation More women workers will help, but there aren't enough. e.g. Germany would require over 100 per cent female participation Increased productivity Everyone will have to work smarter and harder. Sources: IMF, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, UN Department of Economic and Social Affairs, European Commission. Forward projections are not a certainty. Retirement age A higher retirement age is the more likely option - by an average 7 years in the developed world 37m 39m By 2050 society will face tough choices to fill the worker gap 40yrs 44yrs 50m 37m 44yrs 53yrs 75m 51m 45yrs 56yrs China USAJapanGermany UK NumberofworkersMedianage Deposits Withdrawals 2010 2045 891m 803m 35yrs 48yrs 37yrs 40yrs 187m ...with consequences across the economy Key 70.8% 2010 130.4% Required 12 6 39 215m
  • Disclaimer The contents of this document are indicative and are subject to change without notice. This document is intended for your sole use on the basis that before entering into this, and/or any related transaction, you will ensure that you fully understand the potential risks and return of this, and/or any related transaction and determine it is appropriate for you given your objectives, experience, financial and operational resources, and other relevant circumstances. You should consult with such advisers as you deem necessary to assist you in making these determinations. The Royal Bank of Scotland plc, The Royal Bank of Scotland N.V or an affiliated entity ("RBS") will not act and has not acted as your legal, tax, regulatory, accounting or investment adviser or owe any fiduciary duties to you in connection with this, and/or any related transaction and no reliance may be placed on RBS for investment advice or recommendations of any sort. RBS makes no representations or warranties with respect to the information and disclaims all liability for any use you or your advisers make of the contents of this document. However this shall not restrict, exclude or limit any duty or liability to any person under any applicable laws or regulations of any jurisdiction which may not lawfully be disclaimed. RBS and its affiliates, connected companies, employees or clients may have an interest in financial instruments of the type described in this document and/or in related financial instruments. Such interest may include dealing in, trading, holding, or acting as market-makers in such instruments and may include providing banking, credit and other financial services to any company or issuer of securities or financial instruments referred to herein. RBS is authorised and regulated in the UK by the Financial Services Authority, in Hong Kong by the Hong Kong Monetary Authority, in Singapore by the Monetary Authority of Singapore, in Japan by the Financial Services Agency of Japan, in Australia by the Australian Securities and Investments Commission and the Australian Prudential Regulation Authority ABN 30 101 464 528 (AFS Licence No. 241114) and in the US, by the New York State Banking Department and the Federal Reserve Board. The financial instruments described in this document are made in compliance with an applicable exemption from the registration requirements of the US Securities Act of 1933. In the United States, securities activities are undertaken by RBS Securities Inc., which is a FINRA/SIPC member and subsidiary of The Royal Bank of Scotland Group plc. The Royal Bank of Scotland plc. Registered in Scotland No. 90312. Registered Office: 36 St Andrew Square, Edinburgh EH2 2YB. The Royal Bank of Scotland N.V., incorporated in the Netherlands with limited liability. Registered with the Chamber of Commerce in The Netherlands, No. 33002587. The Royal Bank of Scotland plc is in certain jurisdictions an authorised agent of The Royal Bank of Scotland N.V. and The Royal Bank of Scotland N.V. is in certain jurisdictions an authorised agent of The Royal Bank of Scotland plc. 334-0214MIB / RBS_BM_RBS0071