8trends For 08

1 Beauty is back Edition 1 Christian Lindholm 2008 Fjord. All rights reserved Pretty graphics and fun transitions are now basic requirements to compete. We expect several companies to struggle to upgrade their platforms, particularly Nokia S40. Sony Ericsson is leading this mid range and Apple is the overall benchmark.

The industry will increasingly focus on creating seamless and beautiful journeys, not only functional individual screens. We expect this trend to be prominent, and consumers will benefit.
Larger screens with better colour depth and faster processors have enabled this trend. Many 3G phones are integrating 3D graphics chips, or building the functionality in SW.
SonyEricsson phones have long exhibited smoother experiences, Samsung and LG also understand the benefit of Beauty. We are worried that for example Nokia with its Series 40 platform is lagging behind.Their most recent devices still suffer from rigorous windowing systems and stale graphics.
Doing this well is not easy, it requires deep SW-HW integration. The way one designs needs to evolve from bitmap graphics to vector based graphics.
A new mobile design discipline is emerging called motion design, the tools used are similar to the ones used for TV and video special effects.
Companies that will create the new seamless experiences include specialist design companies like Ocean Observations and Fjord, and companies providing the middleware UI solution, such as The Astonishing Tribe and Tricast Media.
1 Beauty is back Edition 1 Christian Lindholm 2008 Fjord. All rights reserved

2 Chained islands are the new walled gardens Edition 1 Christian Lindholm 2008 Fjord. All rights reserved Multiplatform single sign-in experiences will emerge, proclaiming openness. This will simplify mobile services, but the openness is editorial openness. Nokia OVI, Yahoo Go 3.0, Orange World and Apple iTunes And iPhoto are examples.

Key mobile and Internet players are stepping up their service efforts. We see a trend emerging of multi-platform unified experiences. We call these experiences Chained Islands.
Each experience is optimised for the screen and context. Chained Islands enables monetisation, personal data sharing, common preferences and control of the user interface. Shared metadata and aggregating of a rich profile is the goal. Single sign-on is the basis.
The providers claim openness, but the reality is probably only a moderated openness. Players can enter with Widget platforms or any application which is sticky.
Facebook and MSN Messenger are examples of popular silos that might not appear in competitors Chained Islands.
Apple is again the benchmark, leveraging iTunes as a hub. They even sell SW upgrades from it since the 14th of January
Nokia OVI seems to be a great strategic initiative. Their focus on Maps, Music and photos is good. Their effort is massive and very ambitious.
Yahoo Go 3.0 has top management backing and they have deals with key manufacturers. Their portal is highly relevant, but geographically patchy. Ability to make a difference is limited in 2008.
Of the operators Orange is best positioned, their brand can morph, they are moving into broadband aggressively.
2 Chained islands are the new walled gardens Edition 1 Christian Lindholm 2008 Fjord. All rights reserved

Edition 1 Christian Lindholm 2008 Fjord. All rights reserved 3 Mobile net becomes useful iPhone & iPod Touch, combined with predictable browsing cost combined with high volumes of 2 inch screens with good browsers energises content industry to remake mobile sites.

Edition 1 Christian Lindholm 2008 Fjord. All rights reserved 3 Mobile net becomes useful We still believe that content has to be optimised for small screens. Even a 2.8 screen is too small for comfortable keyhole browsing (panning on a big page). Usage patterns on mobile mimic those of the Internet: Google, Yahoo & BBC are the worlds most used mobile sites. (source Opera). The penetration of 2" colour screens and full Nokia browsers are reaching meaningful numbers. We expect 50M by end of 2008 (Fjord estimate). iPhone energises the mobile content community, from big to small providers. iPod Touch seems to sell well, people who have it, love it – surprisingly no one comments on its size. Internet¬s big names will lead. Google is the benchmark mobile browser based service. Yahoo! is bringing Go to the browser. Opera Mini does over 2BN page views per month. AJAX enriches mobile experiences. Discovery, cost of usage, latency are the major barriers of adoption. In 2008 we expect most progress on the cost front.

Edition 1 Christian Lindholm 2008 Fjord. All rights reserved 4 GPS is the new camera The cost of GPS chips is dropping fast and the fusion of maps/navigation in mobiles, and the dream of monetising location based services makes GPS the next killer app after the camera.

Edition 1 Christian Lindholm 2008 Fjord. All rights reserved 4 GPS is the new camera The cost of GPS chips are falling rapidly, new low-power mobile optimised chips are emerging. Lots of good opportunity for simple value add: directions, travel guides. We expect significant progress in this field, with lots of announcements during 2008. We think that GPS will become as common a feature as the camera became. One key reason is that a monetisation opportunity is combined with end user benefits. This domain provides fruitful ground for innovation. Maps can at best be a start of communication, or a metaphor for the experience. We expect more than half of the phones will have GPS chips in 5 years. Google, Yahoo and Microsoft are all betting big on Local services. Nokia’s investment In Navteq in the fall of 2007 was seen as a tipping point. Yellow pages is a meaningful business, it will migrate to a map-based experience.

Edition 1 Christian Lindholm 2008 Fjord. All rights reserved 5 Touch screen, the year of the bad! Apple has set a very serious benchmark. Others follow faster on that trend than ever before, however with inferior technology.

Apple¬s technological advantage seems real, and they appear to have IPR to back it up. Synaptics, the providers of most touch pads for PCs and providers of the sensors for the early iPods is not making progress, many other technologies are still in the lab.
We think Resistive screens will simply not be sensitive enough, touching is a sensitive act.
What makes touch screen exceptionally
hard is that they are a combination of
HW and SW and fine tuning requires
optimisation everywhere.
Nokia¬s Series 60 touch was far from ready when shown at the Symbian Expo. They might have problems. We expect a powerful launch at 3GSM. If this does not happen, there are certainly problems.
Ensuring that 3rd party developers of software and content destinations understand the ergonomics and needs of touch based experiences will be difficult, and we expect this to also result in badly optimised touch experiences.
Edition 1 Christian Lindholm 2008 Fjord. All rights reserved 5 Touch screen, the year of the bad!

Edition 1 Christian Lindholm 2008 Fjord. All rights reserved 6 Google slows down to Telcom time Google is putting more effort into mobile and gets slowed down to telecom time. They will have little or no impact with Android in 2008. Operators are sceptical and the technology is immature.

Google is now a serious player in Mobile. We estimate that their investments in mobile are beyond $150M
We expect Google to make little progress in 2008 with Android. We expect to see early prototypes from HTC at MCW in Barcelona.
Building a mobile operating system is very hard. There are thousands of little requirements that need to be fulfilled. It took Microsoft 10 years to get traction with Windows Mobile, we do not think Google can do it much faster.
Operators are skeptical about the risk inherent in Android, as it will mean giving away the monetisation engine to Google. Google has little presence in the physical world.
The support from T-Mobile seems tactical, as they have lots of experience of Windows mobile.
Google is making slower than expected progress on their apps. Having the same functionality on Java and S60 shows a lack of commitment. However, their apps are functional and fast.
Edition 1 Christian Lindholm 2008 Fjord. All rights reserved 6 Google slows down to Telcom time

Edition 1 Christian Lindholm 2008 Fjord. All rights reserved 7 Dawn of the Casual Computer iPod touch is a casual computer, an entertainment driven multipurpose device that provides a great internet experience, AND is pocketable.

Edition 1 Christian Lindholm 2008 Fjord. All rights reserved 7 Dawn of the Casual Computer A casual computer is a new computing paradigm. It¬s the first one after the laptop to make computers mobile. Now they become pocketable. Unlike PDAs casual computers are connected, and they are bought for entertainment purposes rather than to manage time better. We expect to see an acceleration in 2008, with several interesting launches. This is a real greenfield of innovation as the devices can be built on Linux and utility can be varied. Nokia is building a new operating system in front of our eyes. It leverages open source, which cuts down development costs, and can increase quality. Apple has managed to leverage components of OS X and build the iPod Touch. This is a platform that will be opened up and we expect a massive surge of applications to emerge for it. The Intel effort around the Ultra Mobile PC UMPC is significant. Asus’ efforts around Eee PC has brought down the price point for a laptop to $300. Microsoft is expected to be a big loser, as their brand & User Experience is utility, not entertainment driven.

Edition 1 Christian Lindholm 2008 Fjord. All rights reserved Mobile handset business has always been about low-end. Volumes are huge and still growing. Market is dominated by Nokia. Sony Ericsson and Samsung are increasing efforts. 8 Go down or go out

Edition 1 Christian Lindholm 2008 Fjord. All rights reserved 8 Go down or go out Nokia is becoming a more motivated and competitive company in the low end. SonyEricsson and Samsung are increasing efforts. SonyEricsson with lifestyle driven devices, Samsung with a pure cost focus. We expect the low end in 2008 to be the primary battlefield. It is not only about cost. Style and functinality plays a greater role. Low end phones will not be Internet friendly in 2008. Functionality gets low end optimised, like multiple phonebooks. Motorola was a big looser with the Moto phone in 2007. The big lesson to learn was; Low end should not mean low style.

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8trends For 08

by Prashant Agarwal on Feb 03, 2009

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