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    Chapter07 Chapter07 Presentation Transcript

    • Chapter Seven Risk Management for Changing Interest Rates: Asset-Liability Management and Duration Techniques Copyright © 2010 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.McGraw-Hill/Irwin
    • McGraw-Hill/Irwin Bank Management and Financial Services, 7/e © 2008 The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc., All Rights Reserved. Key Topics • Asset, Liability, and Funds Management • Market Rates and Interest-Rate Risk • The Goals of Interest-Rate Hedging • Interest-Sensitive Gap Management • Duration Gap Management • Limitations of Hedging Techniques 7-2
    • McGraw-Hill/Irwin Bank Management and Financial Services, 7/e © 2008 The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc., All Rights Reserved. Asset-Liability Management The Purpose of Asset-Liability Management is to Control a Bank’s Sensitivity to Changes in Market Interest Rates and Limit its Losses in its Net Income or Equity 7-3
    • McGraw-Hill/Irwin Bank Management and Financial Services, 7/e © 2008 The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc., All Rights Reserved. Historical View of Asset-Liability Management • Asset Management Strategy (control over assets, no control over liabilities) • Liability Management Strategy (control over liabilities by changing rates and other terms) • Funds Management Strategy (work with both strategies) 7-4
    • McGraw-Hill/Irwin Bank Management and Financial Services, 7/e © 2008 The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc., All Rights Reserved. Interest Rate Risk • Price Risk ▫ When Interest Rates Rise, the Market Value of the Bond or Asset Falls • Reinvestment Risk ▫ When Interest Rates Fall, the Coupon Payments on the Bond are Reinvested at Lower Rates 7-5
    • McGraw-Hill/Irwin Bank Management and Financial Services, 7/e © 2008 The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc., All Rights Reserved. Interest Rate Risk: One of the Main Challenges • Forces Determining Interest Rates ▫ Loanable Funds Theory • The Measurement of Interest Rates ▫ YTM ▫ Bank Discount • Components of Interest Rates 7-6
    • McGraw-Hill/Irwin Bank Management and Financial Services, 7/e © 2008 The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc., All Rights Reserved. Yield to Maturity (YTM) ∑= + = n 1t t t YTM)(1 CF PriceMarket 7-7
    • McGraw-Hill/Irwin Bank Management and Financial Services, 7/e © 2008 The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc., All Rights Reserved. Bank Discount Rate (DR) MaturitytoDays# 360 * FV PricePurchase-FV DR = Where: FV equals Face Value of a Security, such as Treasury Bills 7-8
    • McGraw-Hill/Irwin Bank Management and Financial Services, 7/e © 2008 The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc., All Rights Reserved. Market Interest Rates Function of: • Risk-Free Real Rate of Interest • Various Risk Premiums ▫ Default Risk ▫ Inflation Risk ▫ Liquidity Risk ▫ Call Risk ▫ Maturity Risk 7-9
    • McGraw-Hill/Irwin Bank Management and Financial Services, 7/e © 2008 The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc., All Rights Reserved. Yield Curves • Graphical Picture of Relationship Between Yields and Maturities on Securities • Generally Created With Treasury Securities to Keep Default Risk Constant • Shape of the Yield Curve ▫ Upward – Long-Term Rates Higher than Short-Term Rates ▫ Downward – Short-Term Rates Higher than Long- Term Rates ▫ Horizontal – Short-Term and Long-Term Rates the Same • Shape of the Yield Curve and a Maturity Gap 7-10
    • McGraw-Hill/Irwin Bank Management and Financial Services, 7/e © 2008 The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc., All Rights Reserved. Net Interest Margin AssetsEarningsTotal ExpensesInterest-IncomeInterest NIM = 7-11
    • McGraw-Hill/Irwin Bank Management and Financial Services, 7/e © 2008 The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc., All Rights Reserved. Goal of Interest Rate Hedging One Important Goal of Interest Rate Hedging is to Insulate the Bank from the Damaging Effects of Fluctuating Interest Rates on Profits 7-12
    • McGraw-Hill/Irwin Bank Management and Financial Services, 7/e © 2008 The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc., All Rights Reserved. Quick Quiz • What forces cause interest rates to change? • What makes it so difficult to correctly forecast interest rate changes? • What is the yield curve, and why is it important to know about its shape and slope? • What is the goal of hedging? • First National Bank of Bannerville has posted interest revenues of $63 million and interest costs from all of its borrowings of $42 million. If this bank possesses $700 million in total earning assets, what is First National’s net interest margin? Suppose the bank’s interest revenues and interest costs double, while its earning assets increase by 50%. What will happen to its net interest margin? 7-13
    • McGraw-Hill/Irwin Bank Management and Financial Services, 7/e © 2008 The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc., All Rights Reserved. Interest-Sensitive Gap Measurements Dollar Interest- Sensitive Gap Interest-Sensitive Assets – Interest Sensitive Liabilities= Relative Interest- Sensitive Gap SizeBank GapISDollar = Interest Sensitivity Ratio sLiabilitieSensitiveInterest AssetsSensitiveInterest = 7-14
    • McGraw-Hill/Irwin Bank Management and Financial Services, 7/e © 2008 The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc., All Rights Reserved. Examples of Repriceable (Interest Sensitive) Assets and Liabilities 7-15
    • McGraw-Hill/Irwin Bank Management and Financial Services, 7/e © 2008 The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc., All Rights Reserved. Asset-Sensitive Bank Has: • Positive Dollar Interest-Sensitive Gap • Positive Relative Interest-Sensitive Gap • Interest Sensitivity Ratio Greater Than One 7-16
    • McGraw-Hill/Irwin Bank Management and Financial Services, 7/e © 2008 The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc., All Rights Reserved. Liability Sensitive Bank Has: • Negative Dollar Interest-Sensitive Gap • Negative Relative Interest-Sensitive Gap • Interest Sensitivity Ratio Less Than One 7-17
    • McGraw-Hill/Irwin Bank Management and Financial Services, 7/e © 2008 The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc., All Rights Reserved. Computer-Based Techniques and Maturity Buckets 7-18
    • McGraw-Hill/Irwin Bank Management and Financial Services, 7/e © 2008 The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc., All Rights Reserved. Gap Positions and the Effect of Interest Rate Changes on the Bank • Asset-Sensitive Bank ▫ Interest Rates Rise  NIM Rises ▫ Interest Rates Fall  NIM Falls • Liability-Sensitive Bank ▫ Interest Rates Rise  NIM Falls ▫ Interest Rates Fall  NIM Rises 7-19
    • McGraw-Hill/Irwin Bank Management and Financial Services, 7/e © 2008 The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc., All Rights Reserved. Zero Interest-Sensitive Gap • Dollar Interest-Sensitive Gap is Zero • Relative Interest-Sensitive Gap is Zero • Interest Sensitivity Ratio is One ▫ When Interest Rates Change in Either Direction - NIM is Protected and Will Not Change 7-20
    • McGraw-Hill/Irwin Bank Management and Financial Services, 7/e © 2008 The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc., All Rights Reserved. Important Decision Regarding IS Gap • Management Must Choose the Time Period Over Which NIM is to be Managed • Management Must Choose a Target NIM • To Increase NIM Management Must Either: ▫ Develop Correct Interest Rate Forecast ▫ Reallocate Assets and Liabilities to Increase Spread • Management Must Choose Volume of Interest- Sensitive Assets and Liabilities 7-21
    • McGraw-Hill/Irwin Bank Management and Financial Services, 7/e © 2008 The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc., All Rights Reserved. NIM Influenced By: • Changes in Interest Rates Up or Down • Changes in the Spread Between Assets and Liabilities • Changes in the Volume of Interest-Sensitive Assets and Liabilities • Changes in the Mix of Assets and Liabilities 7-22
    • McGraw-Hill/Irwin Bank Management and Financial Services, 7/e © 2008 The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc., All Rights Reserved. Cumulative Gap The Total Difference in Dollars Between Those Bank Assets and Liabilities Which Can be Repriced over a Designated Time Period 7-23
    • McGraw-Hill/Irwin Bank Management and Financial Services, 7/e © 2008 The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc., All Rights Reserved. Aggressive Interest-Sensitive Gap Management 7-24
    • McGraw-Hill/Irwin Bank Management and Financial Services, 7/e © 2008 The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc., All Rights Reserved. Problems with Interest-Sensitive Gap Management • Interest Paid on Liabilities Tend to Move Faster than Interest Rates Earned on Assets • Interest Rate Attached to Bank Assets and Liabilities Do Not Move at the Same Speed as Market Interest Rates • Point at Which Some Assets and Liabilities are Repriced is Not Easy to Identify • Interest-Sensitive Gap Does Not Consider the Impact of Changing Interest Rates on Equity Position 7-25
    • McGraw-Hill/Irwin Bank Management and Financial Services, 7/e © 2008 The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc., All Rights Reserved. Quick Quiz • Commerce National Bank reports interest-sensitive assets of $870 million and interest-sensitive liabilities of $625 million during the coming month. Is the bank asset sensitive or liability sensitive? What is likely to happen to the bank’s net interest margin if interest rates rise? If they fall? • People’s Savings Bank , a thrift institutions, has a cumulative gap for the coming year of +$135 million, and interest rates are expected to fall by two and a half percentage points. Calculate the expected change in net interest income that this thrift institution might experience. What will occur in net interest income if interest rates rise by one and a quarter percentage points? 7-26
    • McGraw-Hill/Irwin Bank Management and Financial Services, 7/e © 2008 The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc., All Rights Reserved. The Concept of Duration Duration is the Weighted Average Maturity of a Promised Stream of Future Cash Flows 7-27
    • McGraw-Hill/Irwin Bank Management and Financial Services, 7/e © 2008 The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc., All Rights Reserved. To Calculate the Instrument’s Duration PriceorValueMarketCurrent YTM)(1 CF*t YTM)(1 CF YTM)(1 CF*t D n 1t t t n 1t t t n 1t t t ∑ ∑ ∑ = = = + = + + = 7-28
    • McGraw-Hill/Irwin Bank Management and Financial Services, 7/e © 2008 The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc., All Rights Reserved. Price Sensitivity of a Security i)(1 i *D- P P + ∆ ≈ ∆ 7-29
    • McGraw-Hill/Irwin Bank Management and Financial Services, 7/e © 2008 The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc., All Rights Reserved. Convexity The Rate of Change in an Asset’s Price or Value Varies with the Level of Interest Rates or Yields 7-30
    • McGraw-Hill/Irwin Bank Management and Financial Services, 7/e © 2008 The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc., All Rights Reserved. Dollar-Weighted Duration of Asset Portfolio ∑= = n 1i AiA i D*wD Where: wi = the dollar amount of the ith asset divided by total assets DAi = the duration of the ith asset in the portfolio 7-31
    • McGraw-Hill/Irwin Bank Management and Financial Services, 7/e © 2008 The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc., All Rights Reserved. Dollar-Weighted Duration of a Liability Portfolio ∑= = n 1i LiL i D*wD Where: wi = the dollar amount of the ith liability divided by total liabilities DLi = the duration of the ith liability in the portfolio 7-32
    • McGraw-Hill/Irwin Bank Management and Financial Services, 7/e © 2008 The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc., All Rights Reserved. Duration Gap TA TL *D-DD LA= 7-33
    • McGraw-Hill/Irwin Bank Management and Financial Services, 7/e © 2008 The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc., All Rights Reserved. Change in the Value of a Bank’s Net Worth       + ∆       + ∆ =∆ L* i)(1 i *D--A* i)(1 i *D-NW LA 7-34
    • McGraw-Hill/Irwin Bank Management and Financial Services, 7/e © 2008 The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc., All Rights Reserved. Impact of Changing Interest Rates on a Bank’s Net Worth 7-35
    • McGraw-Hill/Irwin Bank Management and Financial Services, 7/e © 2008 The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc., All Rights Reserved. Limitations of Duration Gap Management • Finding Assets and Liabilities of the Same Duration Can be Difficult • Some Assets and Liabilities May Have Patterns of Cash Flows that are Not Well Defined • Customer Prepayments May Distort the Expected Cash Flows in Duration • Customer Defaults May Distort the Expected Cash Flows in Duration • Convexity Can Cause Problems 7-36
    • McGraw-Hill/Irwin Bank Management and Financial Services, 7/e © 2008 The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc., All Rights Reserved. Quick Quiz • What is duration? How is a financial institution’s duration gap determined? • What are the advantages of using duration as opposed to interest-sensitive gap analysis? • Suppose that a thrift institution has an average asset duration of 2.5 years and an average liability duration of 3.0 years. If the thrift holds total assets of $560 million and total liabilities of $467 million, does it have a significant leverage-adjusted duration gap? If interest rates rise, what will happen to the value of its net worth? 7-37