For PM-2.5 in Delhi, the annual average is approximately 3 times higher than the NAAQS (40 µg/m3) and more than 11 times higher than the guidelines stipulated by WHO (10 µg/m3).
It may be of interest to assess the impact of current policies on future air quality and health in Delhi. 450 scenario - A scenario presented in the World Energy Outlook, which sets out an energy pathway consistent with the goal of limiting the global increase in temperature to 2°C by limiting concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere to around 450 parts per million of CO2.
Coal remains the main source of electricity generation, although its share declines from around 70% in 2009 to 53% in 2035.
Air quality is estimated in 1 degree by 1 degree spatial resolution based on source-receptor relationships derived from Transport Model, Version 5 (TM5) atmospheric chemistry and transport model.
City specific policies incorporate current legislation across different sectors – transport, industry, power sector and waste management – in Delhi
There is a decrease in concentrations under all the three scenarios in 2030 as compared to 2010 values. The maximum reductions of about 60% are observed when ACTs are adopted. However even this reduction is not enough to meet the NAAQS. Climate mitigation policies have a modest impact contributing to about 20% reduction in future PM2.5 concentrations. Under the city specific policies scenario, there is a 20% increase in concentrations from 2020 to 2030. This increase can be explained in part by the increased emissions from the road and non-road mobile transport sectors. A key implication of this is that the city level policies currently in place are unlikely to reduce PM2.5 concentrations in Delhi to the NAAQ standards in future.
It may be noted that the central estimate for number of excess deaths attributable to outdoor air pollution in Delhi in 2030 is over 22000 if current city specific policies continue. These deaths can be reduced by half if advanced control technologies are adopted. Health gains as a result of adopting climate mitigation policies are relatively small given the modest impact on air quality. This analysis makes it apparent that air pollution is likely to have a large impact on health outcomes in Indian cities if further stringent control actions are not taken.
The contribution of trans-boundary air pollution in Delhi is significant. For e.g., The contributions to PM2.5 emissions (both primary and secondary) at Delhi receptor grid from Uttar Pradesh and Haryana source regions is significant.
There may be multiple approaches towards achieving the NAAQS such as switching to renewables in transport and power sectors. For e.g., in the transport sector some interventions could include provision of subsidies for use of electric vehicles; leapfrogging from Euro IV to Euro VI standards or higher as well as levy of congestion charges in traffic hotspots.
The contributions to PM2.5 at Delhi receptor grid from each of the source regions considered in the GAINS model is shown here. Moreover, this contribution is split into the primary and secondary components. The constant term k can be thought of as representing the contributions from outside (the GAINS India area), dust and seasalt - these three being independent of the emissions scenario in GAINS - and finally the estimated urban adjustment. The contributions to PM2.5 emissions (both primary and secondary) at Delhi receptor grid from Uttar Pradesh and Haryana source regions is more than 50%.
1. Impact of current policies onfuture air quality and healthoutcomes in Delhi, IndiaHem Dholakiaa, Pallav Purohitb,Shilpa Raob and Amit GargaaIndian Institute of Management (IIM), Ahmedabad, IndiabInternational Institute of Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), AustriaEuropean Geosciences UnionGeneral Assembly 2013Vienna | Austria | 08 April 2013
2. Introduction• Curbing high PM2.5 concentrations and associated health impacts – key challenge in Indian cities – 27 of top 100 most polluted cities are in India (WHO, 2011) – About 627,000 annual deaths due to outdoor air pollution in India (Lim et al. 2012)• National capital region of Delhi – among most polluted megacities – We evaluate the current policy portfolio and compare against alternative policy scenarios
3. PM-2.5 concentrations in select Indian cities 200 180 160 140µg/m3 191.0 120 100 80 115.3 83.8 60 NAAQS 40 48.3 40.6 30.7 20 WHO 0 Mumbai Delhi Bangalore Chennai Pune Kanpur Source: CPCB (2010)
4. Research Questions• Are current city level polices in Delhi adequate to achieve the National Ambient Air Quality Standards (NAAQS) in the future?• What are the future health impacts of these policies in Delhi?• Can implementing advanced control technologies or 450 scenario help achieve NAAQS? What are the health benefits accrued thereof?
5. Methods• We adopted the IEA/WEO (2011) energy scenario for India – GDP growth at 6.4% from 2008 to 2035 – Population (1.1 to 1.5 billion in 2035) – Coal contributes 53% of primary energy in India• Emissions and future concentrations of fine particulate matter were estimated using the GAINS model• All-cause mortality using the population attributable fraction (PAF) approach – Risk rate of 1.06 used with sensitivity analyses for alternate rates (low = 1.02 & high =1.11) from Pope et al. (2002) – Relation between dosage and health response assumed to be linear at high concentrations – Theoretical minimum exposure of PM-2.5 -10 µg/m3
6. Greenhouse gases and Air pollution Interactions and Synergies (GAINS): A model to harvest synergies by integrating multiple pollutants and their multiple effects Emissions and control measures Emissions and control measures for air pollutants and greenhouse gases for air pollutants PM HFCs PM BC SO2 NO VOC NH CO2 CH4 N2O PFCs BC SO2 NOx x VOC NH3 3 OC SF6 OC Health impacts: Health impacts: from fromparticulate matter fine fine particulate matter ( ) from from ground-level ozone ground-level ozone ( ) Vegetation damage: Vegetation damage: Ozone (agricultural crops) ( ) Impacts Ozone (agricultural crops)Impacts Acidification (forests, water) Acidification (forests, water) Eutrophication (biodiversity) Eutrophication (biodiversity) Radiative forcing: - from direct greenhouse gases - via aerosols and ozone ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( )
7. GAINS India: 23 regionsDelhi16 m 2.4 m 0.6 m 1.5 m 1.4 m
8. Policy scenarios Sector City specific policies Advanced Control 450 Scenario* Reference technologies*Transport Stage II control measures in buses Stage III controls in Higher reliance on clean MoPNG and trucks buses and trucks fuels bringing down PM2.5 (2003) Stage II control measures in two and Stage III controls in two emissions by 20% in 2030 three wheelers and three wheelers Introduction of Euro IV standards in Introduction of Euro V Indian megacities from 2010 and Euro VI standards from 2015 Shifting of public transport buses Same as city specific Bell et al. from diesel to CNG in Delhi policies (2004)Power plants Shift of all power plants from coal to Same as city specific High reliance on gas based CPCB natural gas policies power plants and (2010); Use of High efficiency ESP Use of High efficiency de- renewables bringing down SoE-Delhi technology in large coal based power dusters in coal based PM2.5 emissions by 60% in (2010) plants (where applicable) power plants where 2030 applicableIndustry Closing down/ moving highly polluting Same as city specific No significant change in CPCB industries outside city limits policies industrial PM2.5 emissions (2010)Waste Ban on open residential burning of Same as city specific No significant change in MoEF garbage and plastics policies waste sector PM2.5 (2010)
9. PM-2.5 emissions by aggregated sector for Delhi 20 18 16 14kt PM 2.5 emissions 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 CSP 450 ACT CSP 450 ACT 2010 2020 2030 Power generation Domestic Industry Transport Agriculture Other
11. Estimates of all – cause mortality in population >30 years in 2030 attributable to outdoor air pollution in Delhi 35000 30000 25000Number of deaths 20000 Low Central 15000 High 10000 5000 0 CSP ACT 450 Scenario
12. Policy insights• Current policy legislation in Indian cities of Delhi will not bring particulate matter concentrations down to National Ambient Air Quality Standards by 2030• Application of advanced control technologies currently available in the market could substantially reduce air pollution impacts in Delhi – Substantial economic resources may be required• Contribution of trans-boundary air pollution in Delhi may not be insignificant and needs stringent policy control measures
13. Suggested policy portfolio Sector Policies Measures Implementation strategies Key institutions*Power sector Efficiency improvements Emission targets, emission Smart grid connections; reduced MoEF, CERC, EM standards distribution losses; strict control on C diesel generator sets Fuel switch Taxation mechanisms Technology transfer; Infrastructure MoEF, MNRE development for renewable energyTransport Efficiency improvements Emission standards Leapfrog to Euro VI standards MoPNG, Technology push Subsidy mechanisms Penetration of electric & hybrid vehicles MoEF Process improvements Awareness, education Traffic light synchronization, road dust MoRTH management systems, improved public transportIndustry Process improvements & Standards, tax, awareness Strict monitoring and correction; Regulatory recycling adoption of vertical shaft brick kilns bodies, industry Raw material improvements & Industry standards Industry leadership, supply chain associations switch managementTrans- Efficiency & Process Emission targets, emission Enhancing metro connectivity, ban on MoEF, Delhi,boundary improvements standards, awareness open combustion and burning of crop Haryana & Uttareffects residue Pradesh state governments
14. Thank you (firstname.lastname@example.org)
15. Component wise break-up of PM2.5 concentrations in Delhi (µg/m3) in 2010 Urban adjustment Constant k 3.2% 5.1% Sea salt Dust 1.1% 8.9% Secondary PM2.5 32.1% Primary PM2.5 49.5%