CDM potential of renewable energytechnologies in India Pallav Purohit GGI Meeting Wednesday 17th October 2007
Contents Background Characteristics of renewable energy technologies Renewable energy development in India Potential of renewable energy technologies in India CDM rules for small scale renewable energy technologies Contribution of the CDM to make renewable energy technologies viable in India Diffusion of renewable energy technologies in India Conclusions
Background The global energy needs will be almost 60% higher in 2030 than they are now (IEA, 2006). 2/3rd of this increase will arise in China, India and other rapidly developing economies, which will account for almost half the energy consumption by 2030. The global power sector will need to build some 4,800 GW of new capacity between now and 2030. In the 11th Five Year Plan, the Govt. of India aims to achieve a GDP growth rate of 10% and maintain an average growth of about 8% in the next 15 years.
The development challengePopulation without access to electricity, selected countries Motor vehicles per 1000 people, selected countries Development Objectives – economic growth, equity and human well-being
Renewable energy use indeveloping countries Low energy consumption and poor quality of life Oil import related problems Availability of renewable energy resources (solar, wind, hydro, biomass etc.) Low purchasing power of potential users Fuel gatherers not buyers Unemployment and underemployment
Characteristics of renewable energy technologies Large, inexhaustible source Clean source of energy Low density: dilute source of energy High costs due to the large collection areas Availability varies with time (i. e. intermittent source of energy) Additional cost due to the storage requirements (i. e. PV systems)Appropriate technological solutions and strategies which can make efficient andeffective use of available manpower?
Renewable energy development in India• Importance recognized in mid 70s• Department of Non-Conventional Energy Sources in 1982• Upgraded to Ministry (Ministry of Non-conventional Energy Sources) in 1992• IREDA (Indian Renewable Energy Development Agency) set up in 1987• Thrust given to resource assessment, technology development and demonstration• Several technologies are now commercially viable
Indian power sector (Installed capacity: 135 GW till August 2007) Renewable 8% Nuclear 3% Coal Thermal 53% 64% Hydro 25% Gas 10% Oil 1%Source: Ministry of Power, Govt. of India
Estimated potential and cumulative achievements of renewable energy technologies (RETs) in IndiaS. No. Sources / Systems Estimated potential Cumulative achievements Unit Potential Unit AchievementsI. Power from Renewables A. Grid-interactive renewable power 1. Bio power (Agro residues) MWe 16,881 MW 5100 2. Wind power MWe 45,195 MW 6315.00 3. Small hydro power (up to 25 MW) MWe 15,000 MW 1905.00 4. Bagasse cogeneration MWe 5,000 MW 602.00 5. Waste to energy MWe 2,700 MW 40.95 Sub Total (in MW) (A) MWe 84,776 MW 9372.95 B. Distributed renewable power 6. Solar power - - MW 2.92 7 Biomass power/Cogeneration - - MW 34.30 (non-bagasse) 8. Biomass gasifier - - MW 75.85 9. Waste-to-energy - - MW 11.03 Sub Total (B) - - MW 124.10 Total ( A + B ) - - MW 9497.05Source: MNRE (2007)
Diffusion criterias for the large scale diffusion of RETs in IndiaResource availabilityTechnological appropriateness O&M cost Economic/ Technical capital cost financialFinancial/economic viability barriers Cost effectiveness barriers Site selectionEnvironmental sustainability Social/environmental barriersEnergetic viability Local capacity: infrastructure and knowledge barriers Political, institutional andSocio-cultural acceptance legislative barriers
Potential of renewable energy technologies in India End use Technology Theoretical Potential Lighting SPV lanterns 97 million Solar home lighting systems 97 million Cooking Box type solar cookers 97 million Water heating Solar water heating systems 27 million Water pumping SPV pumps 70 million Windmill pumps 2.4 million Power generation Bagasse cogeneration 6 GW Biomass gasification 31 GWSource: Own estimates
Wind power potential in India(Source: CWET, 2006)
CDM benefits for industrialized anddeveloping countries Industrialized Countries CDM emission reductions count towards the GHG emissions targets of the Kyoto Protocol. Lower cost for GHG emissions reductions in developing countries than in industrialized countries. Opportunities to market new technologies in developing countries. Developing countries CDM projects generate sustainable development benefits (for example sustainable energy and poverty reduction). Transfer of technologies to achieve sustainable development Additional financial assistance for sustainable development
Expected average CER from registered projects by host partySource: cdm.unfccc.int
Registered project activities by host partySource: cdm.unfccc.int
BaselineThe baseline for a CDM projectactivity is the scenario thatreasonably represents GHGemissions that would occur in theabsence of the proposed projectactivity.Difference between the baselineemissions and GHG emissionsafter implementing the CDMproject activity (project emissions)is emission reductions.
Additionality A CDM project activity is additional if GHG emissions are reduced below those that would have occurred in the absence of the registered CDM project activity. Environmental additionality real emissions reduction Financial additionality ensure that ODA (Official Development Assistance) is not reclassified as CDM funding Technological additionality ensures appropriate transfer of technology Investment additionality baseline FDI is not categorized as CDM funds
Small scale CDM (SSC) projectsRenewable energy projectactivities with a maximumoutput capacity equivalent ofup to 15 MW,Energy efficiency improvementproject activities which reduceenergy consumption by anamount equivalent to 60 GWhper year,Other project activities whoseemission reductions are lessthan 60 kt CO2 per year.
Diffusion of renewable energytechnologies in India As per the logistic model, the cumulative number, N(t), of the renewable energy systems disseminated up to a particular period (tth year) can be expressed as ⎡ e (a +bt ) ⎤ N (t ) = M ⎢ ⎥ ⎣ 1 + e (a +bt ) ⎦ where the regression coefficients a and b are estimated by a linear regression of the log-log form of the above equation, i.e. ⎡ N (t) ⎤ ⎢ M ⎥ ln ⎢ = a+bt N (t) ⎥ ⎢1− ⎥ ⎣ M ⎦
Diffusion of SPV lighting technologies 40 40 C um ulative num ber of solar hom e lighting system s (m ill 35 35C u m ulative num ber of S P V lanterns (m illio SSshs SSspvl OSshs 30 30 OSspvl 25 25 20 20 15 15 10 10 5 5 0 0 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 Year Year SPV lanterns Solar home lighting systems
Projected values of the cumulative number of RETs and associated CER generationYear Cumulative capacity/number of Annual CER generation RETs (GW/million) (million) SS OS SS OS1. Bagasse cogeneration2012 3.8 5.0 20 262020 5.4 5.5 28 282. Biomass gasification2012 166 478 0.31 0.892020 490 1373 0.91 2.563. Small Hydro Power2012 4 8 11 232020 7 10 21 284. Wind power projects2012 22 36 41 672020 41 44 78 835. Windmill Pumps (No.)2012 6 23 13 472020 34 130 69 264
Estimated CDM potential of RETs in India 600 500 CDM potential (million CER) 400 300 200 100 0 Solar Wind Biomass Small Hydro Total
Conclusions The state-wise potential of RET’s has been estimated alongwith the associated CDM potential. Identification of niche area(s) of renewable energy utilization could be useful for their market penetration . CER generation in India could theoretically reach more than 500 million tonnes per year. CDM could help to achieve the maximum utilization potential of RETs more rapidly as compared to the current diffusion trend of RETs in India if supportive policies are introduced. In case of SETs and windmill pumps, to close the gap between the mitigation cost and the CER price subsidies are required.