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CDM Potential of Renewable Energy Technologies in India

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  • 1. CDM potential of renewable energy technologies in India Pallav Purohit GGI Meeting Wednesday 17th October 2007
  • 2. Contents Background Characteristics of renewable energy technologies Renewable energy development in India Potential of renewable energy technologies in India CDM rules for small scale renewable energy technologies Contribution of the CDM to make renewable energy technologies viable in India Diffusion of renewable energy technologies in India Conclusions
  • 3. Background The global energy needs will be almost 60% higher in 2030 than they are now (IEA, 2006). 2/3rd of this increase will arise in China, India and other rapidly developing economies, which will account for almost half the energy consumption by 2030. The global power sector will need to build some 4,800 GW of new capacity between now and 2030. In the 11th Five Year Plan, the Govt. of India aims to achieve a GDP growth rate of 10% and maintain an average growth of about 8% in the next 15 years.
  • 4. The development challenge Population without access to electricity, selected countries Motor vehicles per 1000 people, selected countries Development ObjectivesDevelopment Objectives –– economic growth, equity and human welleconomic growth, equity and human well--beingbeing
  • 5. Renewable energy use in developing countries Low energy consumption and poor quality of life Oil import related problems Availability of renewable energy resources (solar, wind, hydro, biomass etc.) Low purchasing power of potential users Fuel gatherers not buyers Unemployment and underemployment
  • 6. Characteristics of renewable energy technologies Large, inexhaustible source Clean source of energy Low density: dilute source of energy High costs due to the large collection areas Availability varies with time (i. e. intermittent source of energy) Additional cost due to the storage requirements (i. e. PV systems) Appropriate technological solutions and strategies which can make efficient and effective use of available manpower?
  • 7. Renewable energy development in India • Importance recognized in mid 70s • Department of Non-Conventional Energy Sources in 1982 • Upgraded to Ministry (Ministry of Non-conventional Energy Sources) in 1992 • IREDA (Indian Renewable Energy Development Agency) set up in 1987 • Thrust given to resource assessment, technology development and demonstration • Several technologies are now commercially viable
  • 8. Indian power sector (Installed capacity: 135 GW till August 2007) Hydro 25% Nuclear 3% Renewable 8% Coal 53% Gas 10% Oil 1% Thermal 64% Source: Ministry of Power, Govt. of India
  • 9. Estimated potential and cumulative achievements of renewable energy technologies (RETs) in India Estimated potential Cumulative achievementsS. No. Sources / Systems Unit Potential Unit Achievements I. Power from Renewables A. Grid-interactive renewable power 1. Bio power (Agro residues) MWe 16,881 MW 5100 2. Wind power MWe 45,195 MW 6315.00 3. Small hydro power (up to 25 MW) MWe 15,000 MW 1905.00 4. Bagasse cogeneration MWe 5,000 MW 602.00 5. Waste to energy MWe 2,700 MW 40.95 Sub Total (in MW) (A) MWe 84,776 MW 9372.95 B. Distributed renewable power 6. Solar power - - MW 2.92 7 Biomass power/Cogeneration (non-bagasse) - - MW 34.30 8. Biomass gasifier - - MW 75.85 9. Waste-to-energy - - MW 11.03 Sub Total (B) - - MW 124.10 Total ( A + B ) - - MW 9497.05 Source: MNRE (2007)
  • 10. Diffusion criteria's for the large scale diffusion of RETs in India Resource availability Technological appropriateness Financial/economic viability Environmental sustainability Energetic viability Socio-cultural acceptance Social/environmental barriers O&M cost capital cost Cost effectiveness Site selection Technical barriers Local capacity: infrastructure and knowledge barriers Political, institutional and legislative barriers Economic/ financial barriers
  • 11. Potential of renewable energy technologies in India End use Technology Theoretical Potential SPV lanterns 97 millionLighting Solar home lighting systems 97 million Cooking Box type solar cookers 97 million Water heating Solar water heating systems 27 million SPV pumps 70 millionWater pumping Windmill pumps 2.4 million Bagasse cogeneration 6 GWPower generation Biomass gasification 31 GW Source: Own estimates
  • 12. Wind power potential in India (Source: CWET, 2006)(Source: CWET, 2006)
  • 13. Clean Development Mechanism
  • 14. CDM benefits for industrialized and developing countries Industrialized Countries CDM emission reductions count towards the GHG emissions targets of the Kyoto Protocol. Lower cost for GHG emissions reductions in developing countries than in industrialized countries. Opportunities to market new technologies in developing countries. Developing countries CDM projects generate sustainable development benefits (for example sustainable energy and poverty reduction). Transfer of technologies to achieve sustainable development Additional financial assistance for sustainable development
  • 15. Expected average CER from registered projects by host party Source: cdm.unfccc.int
  • 16. Registered project activities by host party Source: cdm.unfccc.int
  • 17. Baseline The baseline for a CDM project activity is the scenario that reasonably represents GHG emissions that would occur in the absence of the proposed project activity. Difference between the baseline emissions and GHG emissions after implementing the CDM project activity (project emissions) is emission reductions.
  • 18. Additionality A CDM project activity is additional if GHG emissions are reduced below those that would have occurred in the absence of the registered CDM project activity. Environmental additionality real emissions reduction Financial additionality ensure that ODA (Official Development Assistance) is not reclassified as CDM funding Technological additionality ensures appropriate transfer of technology Investment additionality baseline FDI is not categorized as CDM funds
  • 19. Small scale CDM (SSC) projects Renewable energy project activities with a maximum output capacity equivalent of up to 15 MW, Energy efficiency improvement project activities which reduce energy consumption by an amount equivalent to 60 GWh per year, Other project activities whose emission reductions are less than 60 kt CO2 per year.
  • 20. Additionality for SSC project activities
  • 21. Status of the wind power projects from India Registered 20% Reg. request 2% At validation 76% Rejected 2%
  • 22. CDM potential of solar energy systems in India 0 50 100 150 200 250 SPV lanterns Solar home lighting systems SPV pumps Solar water heating systems Box type solar cookers CDMpotential(millionCER)
  • 23. CDM potential through bagasse cogeneration Annual CO2 emissions mitigation potential (million tonne)State Region Baseline (kg CO2/kWh) Annual estimated potential (million tonne) Uttar Pradesh Northern 0.75 9.93 Maharashtra Western 0.89 4.58 Tamilnadu Southern 0.86 3.56 Karnataka Southern 0.86 3.31 Andhra Pradesh Southern 0.86 1.73 Gujarat Western 0.89 1.26 Haryana Northern 0.75 0.80 Punjab Northern 0.75 0.75 Uttaranchal Northern 0.75 0.65 Bihar Eastern 1.04 0.69 Madhya Pradesh Western 0.89 0.21 West Bengal Eastern 1.04 0.23 Assam North Eastern 0.45 0.05 Orissa Eastern 1.04 0.08 Others --- 0.86 0.13 All India 27.95
  • 24. CDM potential of wind power Annual CDM potential (million tonnes) State Gross potential (MW) Technical potential (MW) Gross Technical Andhra Pradesh 8275 1750 15.6 3.3 Gujarat 9675 1780 19.0 3.5 Karnataka 6620 1120 12.5 2.1 Kerala 875 605 1.6 1.1 Madhya Pradesh 5500 825 10.8 1.6 Maharashtra 3650 3020 7.2 5.9 Orissa 1700 680 3.9 1.5 Rajasthan 5400 895 8.9 1.5 Tamilnadu 3050 1750 5.8 3.3 West Bengal 450 450 1.0 1.0 All India 86.2 24.9
  • 25. Diffusion of renewable energy technologies in India As per the logistic model, the cumulative number, N(t), of the renewable energy systems disseminated up to a particular period (tth year) can be expressed as where the regression coefficients a and b are estimated by a linear regression of the log-log form of the above equation, i.e. ( ) ( ) ( ) ⎥ ⎦ ⎤ ⎢ ⎣ ⎡ + = + + bta bta e1 e MtN ( ) ( ) tba M tN 1 M tN ln += ⎥ ⎥ ⎥ ⎦ ⎤ ⎢ ⎢ ⎢ ⎣ ⎡ −
  • 26. Diffusion of SPV lighting technologies 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 Year Cumulativenumberofsolarhomelightingsystems(mill SSshs OSshs 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 Year CumulativenumberofSPVlanterns(millio SSspvl OSspvl SPV lanterns Solar home lighting systems
  • 27. Projected values of the cumulative number of RETs and associated CER generation Cumulative capacity/number of RETs (GW/million) Annual CER generation (million) Year SS OS SS OS 1. Bagasse cogeneration 2012 3.8 5.0 20 26 2020 5.4 5.5 28 28 2. Biomass gasification 2012 166 478 0.31 0.89 2020 490 1373 0.91 2.56 3. Small Hydro Power 2012 4 8 11 23 2020 7 10 21 28 4. Wind power projects 2012 22 36 41 67 2020 41 44 78 83 5. Windmill Pumps (No.) 2012 6 23 13 47 2020 34 130 69 264
  • 28. Estimated CDM potential of RETs in India 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 Solar Wind Biomass Small Hydro Total CDMpotential(millionCER)
  • 29. Conclusions The state-wise potential of RET’s has been estimated alongwith the associated CDM potential. Identification of niche area(s) of renewable energy utilization could be useful for their market penetration . CER generation in India could theoretically reach more than 500 million tonnes per year. CDM could help to achieve the maximum utilization potential of RETs more rapidly as compared to the current diffusion trend of RETs in India if supportive policies are introduced. In case of SETs and windmill pumps, to close the gap between the mitigation cost and the CER price subsidies are required.
  • 30. Thank You Further information: purohit@iiasa.ac.at